Peter Atwater
@peteratwater.bsky.social
President of Financial Insyghts. Adjunct Professor William &Mary. Author of "The Confidence Map." Lover of bad puns.
Reposted by Peter Atwater
“The rise in defaults was driven by delinquencies in mortgage payments, and New York Fed researchers found that they were particularly high in lower income zip codes.”
February 10, 2026 at 4:04 PM
“The rise in defaults was driven by delinquencies in mortgage payments, and New York Fed researchers found that they were particularly high in lower income zip codes.”
I realize attention is elsewhere at the moment, but there's a sentiment indicator in here somewhere...
February 5, 2026 at 9:09 PM
I realize attention is elsewhere at the moment, but there's a sentiment indicator in here somewhere...
"The 'K' is here to stay"
BofA: The “K” is here to stay
Ratio of lower- and higher-income spending to middle-income discretionary spending
Ratio of lower- and higher-income spending to middle-income discretionary spending
February 4, 2026 at 12:49 AM
"The 'K' is here to stay"
With xAI, OpenAI, and Anthropic all racing to get through the door, the question isn't whether they can all squeeze through, but whether there will be a door at all by the time they get there.
Changes in sentiment can be funny that way.
Changes in sentiment can be funny that way.
February 3, 2026 at 9:51 PM
With xAI, OpenAI, and Anthropic all racing to get through the door, the question isn't whether they can all squeeze through, but whether there will be a door at all by the time they get there.
Changes in sentiment can be funny that way.
Changes in sentiment can be funny that way.
"What is so unusual about this moment in American history is that the divide in confidence is so wide that at times it seems like the preferences of those at the top are all but in opposition to those at the bottom."
globaltimes.cn/page/202602/...
globaltimes.cn/page/202602/...
globaltimes.cn
February 3, 2026 at 9:15 PM
"What is so unusual about this moment in American history is that the divide in confidence is so wide that at times it seems like the preferences of those at the top are all but in opposition to those at the bottom."
globaltimes.cn/page/202602/...
globaltimes.cn/page/202602/...
Hims Big Game Commercial: "Rich People Live Longer"
YouTube video by hims
youtu.be
February 2, 2026 at 9:53 PM
Proving yet again that even bad certainty beats uncertainty...
So to summarize: ORCL says over the weekend they'll raise $50bn for additional AI investment, including as much as $20bn in stock, equity securities, and debt. New 8 part offering this morning.
Market LOVES this because assumption is this provides certainty. Stock +6%, CDS are ~32 bps tighter.
Market LOVES this because assumption is this provides certainty. Stock +6%, CDS are ~32 bps tighter.
February 2, 2026 at 1:27 PM
Proving yet again that even bad certainty beats uncertainty...
Given the Nvidia OpenAI drama, it is interesting to see all the eagerness of bond holders. I'd have expected them to wait until they saw the equity raised.
February 2, 2026 at 1:23 PM
Given the Nvidia OpenAI drama, it is interesting to see all the eagerness of bond holders. I'd have expected them to wait until they saw the equity raised.
LOL - Why not? I mean everyone else is using the letter for something these days.
February 2, 2026 at 12:50 PM
LOL - Why not? I mean everyone else is using the letter for something these days.
"NVIDIA and OpenAI look forward to finalizing the details of this new phase of strategic partnership in the coming weeks."
Fun to go back and reread the September 22, 2025 press release in light of recent events.
nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/openai-...
Fun to go back and reread the September 22, 2025 press release in light of recent events.
nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/openai-...
OpenAI and NVIDIA Announce Strategic Partnership to Deploy 10 Gigawatts of NVIDIA Systems
OpenAI and NVIDIA today announced a letter of intent for a landmark strategic partnership to deploy at least 10 gigawatts of NVIDIA systems for OpenAI’s next-generation AI infrastructure to train and ...
nvidianews.nvidia.com
February 1, 2026 at 5:24 PM
"NVIDIA and OpenAI look forward to finalizing the details of this new phase of strategic partnership in the coming weeks."
Fun to go back and reread the September 22, 2025 press release in light of recent events.
nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/openai-...
Fun to go back and reread the September 22, 2025 press release in light of recent events.
nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/openai-...
Reposted by Peter Atwater
“Let Sam announce how much he’s going to raise — it’s for him to decide. But we will definitely participate in the next round of financing because it’s such a good investment.” -Jensen Huang www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
January 31, 2026 at 6:16 PM
“Let Sam announce how much he’s going to raise — it’s for him to decide. But we will definitely participate in the next round of financing because it’s such a good investment.” -Jensen Huang www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Reposted by Peter Atwater
The collapse is gold, silver and other precious metals today proves that the big runup in prices had very little, if anything, to do with the "sell America" or "debasement" narratives but rather just fast money trying to piggyback off momentum.
January 30, 2026 at 6:13 PM
The collapse is gold, silver and other precious metals today proves that the big runup in prices had very little, if anything, to do with the "sell America" or "debasement" narratives but rather just fast money trying to piggyback off momentum.
There's a sentiment indicator in here somewhere...
‘The ongoing memory shortage has spiraled so out of control that even the spacious aisles of Costco are apparently no longer safe from its RAMifications.’ www.tomshardware.com/pc-component...
Costco reportedly removes RAM from its display PCs to prevent tech-savvy shoplifters, customers claim — GPUs also absent across stores as PC parts become a hot commodity
RAM is hot property
www.tomshardware.com
January 29, 2026 at 8:27 PM
There's a sentiment indicator in here somewhere...
To summarize, what we are now witnessing is the volatile social mood of the 1970s paired with the intensifying and compounding effects of social media paired with EFTs.
January 29, 2026 at 2:15 PM
To summarize, what we are now witnessing is the volatile social mood of the 1970s paired with the intensifying and compounding effects of social media paired with EFTs.
Our morning garage band name - "Bomb Cyclone and The Polar Vortex" - comes from the weather world.
Their latest hit looks like it will drop this weekend somewhere along the east coast.
Their latest hit looks like it will drop this weekend somewhere along the east coast.
Why Bomb Cyclone And Polar Vortex Will Dominate Newsfeeds This Week
Why Bomb Cyclone And Polar Vortex Will Dominate Newsfeeds This Week
Deep penetration of cold temperatures and a coastal storm this weekend will bring "bomb cyclone" and "polar vortex" into your newsfeeds this week. Here's why.
www.forbes.com
January 28, 2026 at 12:10 PM
Our morning garage band name - "Bomb Cyclone and The Polar Vortex" - comes from the weather world.
Their latest hit looks like it will drop this weekend somewhere along the east coast.
Their latest hit looks like it will drop this weekend somewhere along the east coast.
Affordable
Outcome-driven
Learning-focused
Merit-driven
Very cool to see other universities beginning to follow the playbook @williamandmary has been using all-oriented around generating clear, tangible results in public higher education.
www.wsj.com/opinion/is-a...
Outcome-driven
Learning-focused
Merit-driven
Very cool to see other universities beginning to follow the playbook @williamandmary has been using all-oriented around generating clear, tangible results in public higher education.
www.wsj.com/opinion/is-a...
Opinion | Is a Four-Year Degree Worth It?
If colleges and universities want families to answer ‘yes,’ they’ll need to make some changes on campus.
www.wsj.com
January 27, 2026 at 3:03 PM
Affordable
Outcome-driven
Learning-focused
Merit-driven
Very cool to see other universities beginning to follow the playbook @williamandmary has been using all-oriented around generating clear, tangible results in public higher education.
www.wsj.com/opinion/is-a...
Outcome-driven
Learning-focused
Merit-driven
Very cool to see other universities beginning to follow the playbook @williamandmary has been using all-oriented around generating clear, tangible results in public higher education.
www.wsj.com/opinion/is-a...
Or put differently, the stock market IS the economy...
‘The health of the economy increasingly depends on rich people spending money, a new analysis of government data finds.’ www.axios.com/2026/01/22/j...
January 26, 2026 at 5:38 PM
Or put differently, the stock market IS the economy...
"Me Here Now" policymaking...
'It’s no surprise that politicians are turning to price controls, such as rent caps or utility rate freezes, which promise immediate and visible relief.' www.nytimes.com/2025/11/16/o...
Opinion | Economists Hate This Idea. It Could Be a Way Out of the Affordability Crisis.
www.nytimes.com
January 22, 2026 at 10:09 PM
"Me Here Now" policymaking...
As you reflect on this chart from @markzandi.bsky.social (via @emilypeck.bsky.social of @axios.com), I encourage you to think of it not in terms of spending or the economy, but as a reflection of the relative confidence felt by those at the top and bottom.
January 22, 2026 at 2:24 PM
As you reflect on this chart from @markzandi.bsky.social (via @emilypeck.bsky.social of @axios.com), I encourage you to think of it not in terms of spending or the economy, but as a reflection of the relative confidence felt by those at the top and bottom.
Something something K-Shaped Economy.
Don't look down indeed!
Don't look down indeed!
January 21, 2026 at 10:53 PM
Something something K-Shaped Economy.
Don't look down indeed!
Don't look down indeed!
“You can’t sustain this level of overt wealth without there being consequences”
www.cnn.com/2026/01/21/b...
www.cnn.com/2026/01/21/b...
Davos is confronting two problems. Trump might be the easier one | CNN Business
The annual World Economic Forum confab known as Davos has always had an optics problem. Picture a bunch of people descending in private jets to eat steak and appear on panels about alleviating poverty...
www.cnn.com
January 21, 2026 at 6:28 PM
“You can’t sustain this level of overt wealth without there being consequences”
www.cnn.com/2026/01/21/b...
www.cnn.com/2026/01/21/b...
FWIW I wouldn't underappreciate the rising chaos fatigue.
January 21, 2026 at 5:02 PM
FWIW I wouldn't underappreciate the rising chaos fatigue.
"can't stop"
Gold can’t stop soaring, and Greenland is only one of very many reasons.
When Chaos Reigns, So Does Gold
The precious metal can’t stop soaring, and Greenland is only one of very many reasons.
bloom.bg
January 20, 2026 at 11:50 PM
"can't stop"
Reposted by Peter Atwater
Popular music is getting sadder and angstier www.economist.com/graphic-deta...
January 20, 2026 at 4:12 PM
Popular music is getting sadder and angstier www.economist.com/graphic-deta...
Reposted by Peter Atwater
‘The irony is that it’s easier to trust fake news. It’s consistent, simplified, coherent and predictable, all the things that humans look for when we’re seeking solace.’ seths.blog/2026/01/fake...
Fake news and trust
Celebrity gossip, fortune-telling and superstitions are the original forms of fake news, but now it’s increasingly widespread. In every field from science to world affairs, it’s troubli…
seths.blog
January 18, 2026 at 4:28 PM
‘The irony is that it’s easier to trust fake news. It’s consistent, simplified, coherent and predictable, all the things that humans look for when we’re seeking solace.’ seths.blog/2026/01/fake...