Peter Atwater
@peteratwater.bsky.social
President of Financial Insyghts. Adjunct Professor William &Mary. Author of "The Confidence Map." Lover of bad puns.
FWIW - With confidence now returning to Washington, I expect the $2,000 tariff rebates will end up next to the $5,000 DOGE rebates in some lost DC filing cabinet.
November 11, 2025 at 4:17 PM
FWIW - With confidence now returning to Washington, I expect the $2,000 tariff rebates will end up next to the $5,000 DOGE rebates in some lost DC filing cabinet.
ICYMI - I spoke with David Brancaccio of @marketplace.org about the K-Shaped Economy and why it matters: www.marketplace.org/story/2025/1...
COVID's uneven recovery still haunts the economy
We look at why the unequal "K-shaped" pandemic recovery persists half a decade later, according to professor Peter Atwater.
www.marketplace.org
November 11, 2025 at 3:32 PM
ICYMI - I spoke with David Brancaccio of @marketplace.org about the K-Shaped Economy and why it matters: www.marketplace.org/story/2025/1...
The top-heavy "Jenga Tower Economy"
“.. The economy is increasingly dependent on ‘three narrow, interconnected 'A-pillars':
1) affluent consumers
2) artificial intelligence-fueled investment
3) asset price gains”
@bloomberg.com
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
1) affluent consumers
2) artificial intelligence-fueled investment
3) asset price gains”
@bloomberg.com
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
November 10, 2025 at 12:36 PM
The top-heavy "Jenga Tower Economy"
FWIW - I wouldn't underappreciate the extraordinarily short time preferences of those at the bottom. The withholding of immediate and real SNAP payments in exchange for future and abstract tariff-related payments - even if the latter are far greater - won't be viewed as an even trade.
November 9, 2025 at 6:52 PM
FWIW - I wouldn't underappreciate the extraordinarily short time preferences of those at the bottom. The withholding of immediate and real SNAP payments in exchange for future and abstract tariff-related payments - even if the latter are far greater - won't be viewed as an even trade.
With stimulus checks now in the headlines, it's worth considering what happened during COVID.
One-time payments result in a very short-term bounce to confidence, esp. as the money flows very quickly through the already deliquent at the bottom to their lenders and landlords.
One-time payments result in a very short-term bounce to confidence, esp. as the money flows very quickly through the already deliquent at the bottom to their lenders and landlords.
November 9, 2025 at 4:21 PM
With stimulus checks now in the headlines, it's worth considering what happened during COVID.
One-time payments result in a very short-term bounce to confidence, esp. as the money flows very quickly through the already deliquent at the bottom to their lenders and landlords.
One-time payments result in a very short-term bounce to confidence, esp. as the money flows very quickly through the already deliquent at the bottom to their lenders and landlords.
To all those journalists and bloggers now writing or talking about the K-Shaped Economy:
It's greatest significance is not economic; it's psychological.
Today, in America, there are a few who feel invulnerable in a rising sea of despair.
It's greatest significance is not economic; it's psychological.
Today, in America, there are a few who feel invulnerable in a rising sea of despair.
November 8, 2025 at 2:03 PM
To all those journalists and bloggers now writing or talking about the K-Shaped Economy:
It's greatest significance is not economic; it's psychological.
Today, in America, there are a few who feel invulnerable in a rising sea of despair.
It's greatest significance is not economic; it's psychological.
Today, in America, there are a few who feel invulnerable in a rising sea of despair.
It's not just that the American economy has all its eggs in one AI basket; it is that the basket itself is held by so few hands at the end of the arm of the K-Shaped Economy.
November 8, 2025 at 1:37 PM
It's not just that the American economy has all its eggs in one AI basket; it is that the basket itself is held by so few hands at the end of the arm of the K-Shaped Economy.
"And therein lies the inherent fragility of a K-Shaped Economy that is common knowledge. The more people talk about it, the clearer its shortcomings become, and the clearer its shortcomings become, the more people feel compelled to do something about it."
www.panoptica.ai/uncomfortabl...
www.panoptica.ai/uncomfortabl...
Uncomfortably Underwater: When K-Shaped Economics Breaks
The Federal Reserve chairman finally said it out loud: there's "something there" to the K-Shaped Economy. But now that everyone knows about it—from Wall Street to Glenn Beck's radio show—the real dang...
www.panoptica.ai
November 7, 2025 at 9:35 PM
"And therein lies the inherent fragility of a K-Shaped Economy that is common knowledge. The more people talk about it, the clearer its shortcomings become, and the clearer its shortcomings become, the more people feel compelled to do something about it."
www.panoptica.ai/uncomfortabl...
www.panoptica.ai/uncomfortabl...
Just a reminder. While the foot of the K-Shaped Economy as always been purple politically, it is now purple emotionally too.
November 7, 2025 at 4:43 PM
Just a reminder. While the foot of the K-Shaped Economy as always been purple politically, it is now purple emotionally too.
FWIW - With consumer confidence already low, I am not sure that when the time comes bailouts to those atop the K will even be on offer.
The societal toxicity will be far too great.
The societal toxicity will be far too great.
November 7, 2025 at 12:45 PM
FWIW - With consumer confidence already low, I am not sure that when the time comes bailouts to those atop the K will even be on offer.
The societal toxicity will be far too great.
The societal toxicity will be far too great.
In simple terms, a K-Shaped Economy means those at the top have an over-abundance of everything that matters while those at the bottom have extreme scarcity.
Moreover, for those at the bottom, the disparity is on full-display and ever present.
Moreover, for those at the bottom, the disparity is on full-display and ever present.
November 7, 2025 at 12:42 PM
In simple terms, a K-Shaped Economy means those at the top have an over-abundance of everything that matters while those at the bottom have extreme scarcity.
Moreover, for those at the bottom, the disparity is on full-display and ever present.
Moreover, for those at the bottom, the disparity is on full-display and ever present.
Reposted by Peter Atwater
America’s “Jenga tower” economy looks strong — but pull one block, and it could all fall. The rich are spending, the rest are struggling.
‘Jenga Tower’ US Economy Teeters as Middle Class Pulls Back Spending
The surprising resilience of the US economy this year is masking underlying weakness among low- and middle-income households, as higher-income Americans continue to drive growth.
bloom.bg
November 7, 2025 at 1:30 AM
America’s “Jenga tower” economy looks strong — but pull one block, and it could all fall. The rich are spending, the rest are struggling.
True or not, the attribution of job losses to AI is what matters in this story...
(Bloomberg) - US companies announced the most job cuts for any October in more than two decades as artificial intelligence reshapes industries and cost-cutting accelerates ..
@bloomberg.com #Challenger
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
@bloomberg.com #Challenger
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
November 7, 2025 at 1:10 AM
True or not, the attribution of job losses to AI is what matters in this story...
To borrow from Rob Henderson, the more I look, the more AI feels like the ultimate top-of-the-K luxury belief.
November 7, 2025 at 1:00 AM
To borrow from Rob Henderson, the more I look, the more AI feels like the ultimate top-of-the-K luxury belief.
More accurately "almost 600 domestic flights"
All the money is being made in the front of the bus on overseas routes.
All the money is being made in the front of the bus on overseas routes.
American Airlines, United Airlines and Delta said it would scrap almost 600 trips collectively, as the federal aviation regulator prepares to cut capacity at 40 airports due to staffing shortages on.ft.com/481CZG3
November 7, 2025 at 12:56 AM
More accurately "almost 600 domestic flights"
All the money is being made in the front of the bus on overseas routes.
All the money is being made in the front of the bus on overseas routes.
"K-Shaped Cutbacks"
When you look at how much money now comes from the front of the bus versus the back, this is hardly surprising...
When you look at how much money now comes from the front of the bus versus the back, this is hardly surprising...
“United's long-haul international flying and our hub-to-hub flying will not be impacted by [the FAA’s] schedule reduction direction... Instead, we will focus our schedule reductions on regional flying and domestic mainline flights that do not travel between our hubs.”
- United CEO Scott Kirby
- United CEO Scott Kirby
November 6, 2025 at 7:19 PM
"K-Shaped Cutbacks"
When you look at how much money now comes from the front of the bus versus the back, this is hardly surprising...
When you look at how much money now comes from the front of the bus versus the back, this is hardly surprising...
It's "bifurcated"
It's a "two-track economy."
I feel like "K-Shaped" is the Voldemort of Fed speak.
Given the clear image it suggests, it shall not be spoken.
It's a "two-track economy."
I feel like "K-Shaped" is the Voldemort of Fed speak.
Given the clear image it suggests, it shall not be spoken.
November 6, 2025 at 6:10 PM
It's "bifurcated"
It's a "two-track economy."
I feel like "K-Shaped" is the Voldemort of Fed speak.
Given the clear image it suggests, it shall not be spoken.
It's a "two-track economy."
I feel like "K-Shaped" is the Voldemort of Fed speak.
Given the clear image it suggests, it shall not be spoken.
I feel like I just heard this somewhere...
FED’S HAMMACK: ECONOMY SPLIT AS LOWER INCOMES STRUGGLE, SPENDING DRIVEN BY WEALTHIER AMERICANS
November 6, 2025 at 6:03 PM
I feel like I just heard this somewhere...
Imagine that...
FED'S BARR: I SEE A TWO-SPEED ECONOMY, WITH WEALTHIER HOUSEHOLDS THRIVING
November 6, 2025 at 4:50 PM
Imagine that...
Now do AI...
so many unintentional funnies in here. Just so gloriously ridiculous, the fever dream of people who have overdosed on money
ig.ft.com/saudi-neom-l...
ig.ft.com/saudi-neom-l...
End of The Line: how Saudi Arabia’s Neom dream unravelled
Mohammed bin Salman’s utopian city was undone by the laws of physics and finance
ig.ft.com
November 6, 2025 at 4:17 PM
Now do AI...
LOL - Who would say something like that??!!
The “Jenga Tower” economy is some pretty vivid framing.
@bloomberg.com @jessefelder.bsky.social
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
@bloomberg.com @jessefelder.bsky.social
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
November 6, 2025 at 3:32 PM
LOL - Who would say something like that??!!
Reposted by Peter Atwater
‘The risk now is that what might be considered a “natural” amount of inequality develops into something “extreme” and leaves the economy at large more vulnerable to duress. “It triggers discontent, social unrest and is more corrosive than conducive to growth”.‘ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
‘Jenga Tower’ US Economy Teeters as Middle Class Pulls Back Spending
The surprising resilience of the US economy this year is masking underlying weakness among low- and middle-income households, as higher-income Americans continue to drive growth.
www.bloomberg.com
November 6, 2025 at 2:50 PM
‘The risk now is that what might be considered a “natural” amount of inequality develops into something “extreme” and leaves the economy at large more vulnerable to duress. “It triggers discontent, social unrest and is more corrosive than conducive to growth”.‘ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
This thread is required reading:
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has a fantastical vision for a new way of living. But The Line, his plan for a vertical city in a vast mirrored wall, is rapidly being undone by the laws of physics and finance.
Here is an #FTEdit 🧵 of eight mind-bending facts about this moonshot in the sand 👇
Here is an #FTEdit 🧵 of eight mind-bending facts about this moonshot in the sand 👇
November 6, 2025 at 2:49 PM
This thread is required reading:
I can't image who would say a thing like that!
“I feel like our economy today resembles a top-heavy Jenga tower.”
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
‘Jenga Tower’ US Economy Teeters as Middle Class Pulls Back Spending
The surprising resilience of the US economy this year is masking underlying weakness among low- and middle-income households, as higher-income Americans continue to drive growth.
www.bloomberg.com
November 6, 2025 at 12:54 PM
I can't image who would say a thing like that!
FWIW- As they guy who called its beginning, I don't think it is too soon to declare the end of the K-Shaped Economy.
To borrow from @epsilontheory.bsky.social, common knowledge matters and the divide between those at the top and bottom is so obvious and well known as to now demand a response.
To borrow from @epsilontheory.bsky.social, common knowledge matters and the divide between those at the top and bottom is so obvious and well known as to now demand a response.
November 6, 2025 at 12:49 PM
FWIW- As they guy who called its beginning, I don't think it is too soon to declare the end of the K-Shaped Economy.
To borrow from @epsilontheory.bsky.social, common knowledge matters and the divide between those at the top and bottom is so obvious and well known as to now demand a response.
To borrow from @epsilontheory.bsky.social, common knowledge matters and the divide between those at the top and bottom is so obvious and well known as to now demand a response.