Jesse Felder
@jessefelder.bsky.social
Founder and editor of The Felder Report and host of the Superinvestors and the Art of Worldly Wisdom podcast.
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Investor 'Greed' Goes Off The Chart
Below are some of the most interesting things I came across this week. Click here to subscribe to our free weekly newsletter and get this post delivered to your inbox each Saturday morning.
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NEW POST: Investor ‘Greed’ Goes Off The Chart thefelderreport.com/2025/11/08/i...
Reposted by Jesse Felder
JP made clear a couple weeks ago that while the Fed balance sheet may expand, the maturity profile is set to contract meaningfully, forcing the private sector to hold more duration ahead.
November 10, 2025 at 6:13 PM
JP made clear a couple weeks ago that while the Fed balance sheet may expand, the maturity profile is set to contract meaningfully, forcing the private sector to hold more duration ahead.
‘For a company that’s burning more than twice what it’s earning, OpenAI is giddily rolling out some ingeniously reckless new ways of racking up losses.’ www.forbes.com/sites/phoebe...
November 10, 2025 at 6:06 PM
‘For a company that’s burning more than twice what it’s earning, OpenAI is giddily rolling out some ingeniously reckless new ways of racking up losses.’ www.forbes.com/sites/phoebe...
‘The entire picture depends on the mega caps, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 responsible for 82% of the S&P 500’s 12% EPS growth.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...
November 10, 2025 at 6:02 PM
‘The entire picture depends on the mega caps, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 responsible for 82% of the S&P 500’s 12% EPS growth.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...
‘Using it for even for benign tasks such as figuring out a fitness routine or deciding what to wear feels an increasingly political choice. OK, so ChatGPT helps you write your grocery list. Does your individual convenience outweigh the societal harm it can cause?‘ www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle...
‘It shows such a laziness’: why I refuse to date someone who uses ChatGPT
It’s the ultimate ick: trying to form a deep, lasting connection with a person who outsources original thought
www.theguardian.com
November 10, 2025 at 5:59 PM
‘Using it for even for benign tasks such as figuring out a fitness routine or deciding what to wear feels an increasingly political choice. OK, so ChatGPT helps you write your grocery list. Does your individual convenience outweigh the societal harm it can cause?‘ www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle...
‘If we look at the ratio of the unemployment rate for 20-24-year-olds with that of the overall economy, we find that it is at an all-time high going back to 1947.’ blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...
November 10, 2025 at 5:49 PM
‘If we look at the ratio of the unemployment rate for 20-24-year-olds with that of the overall economy, we find that it is at an all-time high going back to 1947.’ blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...
‘More companies, many of them penny stocks seeking ways to boost profits, are launching daily. But as bitcoin sags, they are turning to esoteric, more volatile tokens in a bid to amplify returns.’ www.reuters.com/business/fin...
Crypto treasury companies pivot to fringe tokens, stoking volatility fears
As companies focused on stockpiling bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies come under pressure amid market saturation and souring sentiment, new entrants are pushing into less popular tokens, stoking worries over increased volatility.
www.reuters.com
November 10, 2025 at 5:41 PM
‘More companies, many of them penny stocks seeking ways to boost profits, are launching daily. But as bitcoin sags, they are turning to esoteric, more volatile tokens in a bid to amplify returns.’ www.reuters.com/business/fin...
‘China installed 429GW of new power generation capacity in 2024, more than six times the net capacity added in the US during that time. Unless the US changes something, it risks becoming a consumer as opposed to an innovator in both energy and AI tech.’ www.ft.com/content/fecd...
November 10, 2025 at 5:34 PM
‘China installed 429GW of new power generation capacity in 2024, more than six times the net capacity added in the US during that time. Unless the US changes something, it risks becoming a consumer as opposed to an innovator in both energy and AI tech.’ www.ft.com/content/fecd...
‘Microsoft hasn’t come close to explaining the full effects of its OpenAI dealings on its own financial statements. This isn’t supposed to be optional.’ www.wsj.com/tech/ai/micr...
Microsoft’s Dealings With OpenAI Still Need a Lot More Sunlight
The company’s new disclosures only underscore how much remains hidden.
www.wsj.com
November 10, 2025 at 5:25 PM
‘Microsoft hasn’t come close to explaining the full effects of its OpenAI dealings on its own financial statements. This isn’t supposed to be optional.’ www.wsj.com/tech/ai/micr...
Reposted by Jesse Felder
Interesting to see GOLDMAN — which has been pretty constructive on the sustainability of the AI/capex spend — start to fold in some caution:
“.. history suggests that today’s tight credit spreads may be vulnerable not just to downside risks to the economy
but to increased use of debt ..” 👀
“.. history suggests that today’s tight credit spreads may be vulnerable not just to downside risks to the economy
but to increased use of debt ..” 👀
November 10, 2025 at 4:47 PM
Interesting to see GOLDMAN — which has been pretty constructive on the sustainability of the AI/capex spend — start to fold in some caution:
“.. history suggests that today’s tight credit spreads may be vulnerable not just to downside risks to the economy
but to increased use of debt ..” 👀
“.. history suggests that today’s tight credit spreads may be vulnerable not just to downside risks to the economy
but to increased use of debt ..” 👀
Reposted by Jesse Felder
BURRY won’t let up — now arguing that Oracle and Meta are overstating earnings by understating depreciation:
“.. By 2028, $ORCL will overstate earnings 26.9%, $META by 20.8%, etc.”
“.. By 2028, $ORCL will overstate earnings 26.9%, $META by 20.8%, etc.”
November 10, 2025 at 4:58 PM
BURRY won’t let up — now arguing that Oracle and Meta are overstating earnings by understating depreciation:
“.. By 2028, $ORCL will overstate earnings 26.9%, $META by 20.8%, etc.”
“.. By 2028, $ORCL will overstate earnings 26.9%, $META by 20.8%, etc.”
‘Renovo‘s sudden collapse strikes at the heart of what critics see as a major vulnerability in the private credit market: the disconnect between the valuation of illiquid loans and the performance of the underlying companies.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
BlackRock Faces 100% Loss on Private Loan, Adding to Credit Market Pain
About a month ago, BlackRock Inc. deemed the private debt it had extended to Renovo Home Partners, a struggling home improvement company, to be worth 100 cents on the dollar. As of last week, the firm...
www.bloomberg.com
November 10, 2025 at 4:31 PM
‘Renovo‘s sudden collapse strikes at the heart of what critics see as a major vulnerability in the private credit market: the disconnect between the valuation of illiquid loans and the performance of the underlying companies.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
‘The Bank of Japan’s policy board has signaled that the next interest-rate increase may be coming soon, according to its latest summary of opinions, with members keeping a particular eye on domestic wage trends.’ www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
BOJ Summary of Opinions Show Next Rate-Hike Nearing
The Bank of Japan’s policy board has signaled that the next interest-rate increase may be coming soon, according to its latest summary of opinions, with members keeping a particular eye on domestic wa...
www.wsj.com
November 10, 2025 at 4:25 PM
‘The Bank of Japan’s policy board has signaled that the next interest-rate increase may be coming soon, according to its latest summary of opinions, with members keeping a particular eye on domestic wage trends.’ www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
“The economy remains resilient on the surface, but it’s increasingly dependent on three narrow, interconnected ‘A-pillars’: affluent consumers, artificial intelligence-fueled investment and asset price gains.” - @gregdaco.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
The Three ’A’s in the Trump Economy: AI, Asset Prices and the Affluent
Trump’s economy is being propped up by AI, affluent consumers and asset price gains
www.bloomberg.com
November 10, 2025 at 4:20 PM
“The economy remains resilient on the surface, but it’s increasingly dependent on three narrow, interconnected ‘A-pillars’: affluent consumers, artificial intelligence-fueled investment and asset price gains.” - @gregdaco.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
‘Investors’ rosy feelings about having a lot more money are powering spending on restaurant meals, business-class airline tickets, home improvement and more, keeping the broader economy humming. This all makes the economy especially vulnerable to a stock market swoon.‘ www.wsj.com/economy/cons...
Feeling Great About the Economy? You Must Own Stocks
Investors’ rosy feelings about their stock market gains are powering spending—but it’s a different story for everyone else.
www.wsj.com
November 10, 2025 at 4:17 PM
‘Investors’ rosy feelings about having a lot more money are powering spending on restaurant meals, business-class airline tickets, home improvement and more, keeping the broader economy humming. This all makes the economy especially vulnerable to a stock market swoon.‘ www.wsj.com/economy/cons...
‘While OpenAI projected spending about $235 billion on costs to train and run its AI models this year through 2028, Anthropic planned to spend less than a third of that amount in its optimistic forecast, slowing down its spending growth in the coming years.’ www.theinformation.com/articles/ant...
November 10, 2025 at 4:10 PM
‘While OpenAI projected spending about $235 billion on costs to train and run its AI models this year through 2028, Anthropic planned to spend less than a third of that amount in its optimistic forecast, slowing down its spending growth in the coming years.’ www.theinformation.com/articles/ant...
‘MiniMax noted that the price of M2 is just 8% of that of Anthropic’s Claude Sonnet model.’ www.theinformation.com/articles/chi...
China’s Open-Source Models Challenge Anthropic in AI Coding
Chinese companies are launching open-source AI models built to power coding assistants as cheaper alternatives to those available from OpenAI, Anthropic and Google.Late last month, Shanghai-based AI s...
www.theinformation.com
November 10, 2025 at 4:07 PM
‘MiniMax noted that the price of M2 is just 8% of that of Anthropic’s Claude Sonnet model.’ www.theinformation.com/articles/chi...
‘Two of the world’s biggest data center developers have projects in Nvidia‘s hometown that may sit empty for years because the local utility isn’t ready to supply electricity.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Data Centers in Nvidia’s Hometown Stand Empty Awaiting Power
The fate of two facilities in Santa Clara, California, highlights a major challenge for the US tech sector and indeed the wider economy.
www.bloomberg.com
November 10, 2025 at 4:05 PM
‘Two of the world’s biggest data center developers have projects in Nvidia‘s hometown that may sit empty for years because the local utility isn’t ready to supply electricity.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
’Each of the four previous major spikes in the real Funds rate since 1990 has eventually caused a significant pullback real S&P EPS.‘ paulsenperspectives.substack.com/p/will-the-f... by @jimwpaulsen.bsky.social
November 10, 2025 at 3:04 PM
’Each of the four previous major spikes in the real Funds rate since 1990 has eventually caused a significant pullback real S&P EPS.‘ paulsenperspectives.substack.com/p/will-the-f... by @jimwpaulsen.bsky.social
‘In real terms, the S&P 500 has deviated far above its long-term trend.’ thedailyshot.com/2025/11/10/c... via @thedailyshot.bsky.social
November 10, 2025 at 2:50 PM
‘In real terms, the S&P 500 has deviated far above its long-term trend.’ thedailyshot.com/2025/11/10/c... via @thedailyshot.bsky.social
Reposted by Jesse Felder
I make 95% less Google Search this year after starting on Perplexity Pro. It is really good. Can highly recommend it.
Listen to this podcast on Perplexity. In my view they have the right vision for AI. OpenAI and Grok are both too focused on engagement.
podcasts.apple.com/dk/podcast/o...
Listen to this podcast on Perplexity. In my view they have the right vision for AI. OpenAI and Grok are both too focused on engagement.
podcasts.apple.com/dk/podcast/o...
Dmitry Shevelenko on Perplexity's Vision for Reshaping the Internet
Podcastepisode · Odd Lots · 06.11.2025 · 39 min.
podcasts.apple.com
November 7, 2025 at 10:42 PM
I make 95% less Google Search this year after starting on Perplexity Pro. It is really good. Can highly recommend it.
Listen to this podcast on Perplexity. In my view they have the right vision for AI. OpenAI and Grok are both too focused on engagement.
podcasts.apple.com/dk/podcast/o...
Listen to this podcast on Perplexity. In my view they have the right vision for AI. OpenAI and Grok are both too focused on engagement.
podcasts.apple.com/dk/podcast/o...
‘According to derivatives strategists at BofA, volatility rising along with asset prices is among the clearest signs of a bubble.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
November 9, 2025 at 3:27 PM
‘According to derivatives strategists at BofA, volatility rising along with asset prices is among the clearest signs of a bubble.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
‘When will we seriously consider a national health insurance program here in America? I have to believe we’re getting closer because this can’t continue.’ www.theguardian.com/business/202...
I’m as capitalist as they get but Medicare for all is the best hope for US healthcare | Gene Marks
With the US government shut down over impending rises to insurance premiums it’s clear the status quo cannot continue
www.theguardian.com
November 9, 2025 at 3:22 PM
‘When will we seriously consider a national health insurance program here in America? I have to believe we’re getting closer because this can’t continue.’ www.theguardian.com/business/202...
“Fundamental hedge funds have embraced high-beta stocks.” www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a... via @topdowncharts.bsky.social
November 9, 2025 at 3:07 PM
“Fundamental hedge funds have embraced high-beta stocks.” www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a... via @topdowncharts.bsky.social
NEW POST: Investor ‘Greed’ Goes Off The Chart thefelderreport.com/2025/11/08/i...
Investor 'Greed' Goes Off The Chart
Below are some of the most interesting things I came across this week. Click here to subscribe to our free weekly newsletter and get this post delivered to your inbox each Saturday morning.
LINK
Fred ...
thefelderreport.com
November 8, 2025 at 10:20 PM
NEW POST: Investor ‘Greed’ Goes Off The Chart thefelderreport.com/2025/11/08/i...
‘CarMax just dumped its chief executive officer, slashed guidance for the third quarter and saw its share price tumble as much as 20% to the lowest since 2012. The mounting evidence of cracks in the market is getting harder to ignore.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
CarMax’s Debacle Is a Clear Sign of Economic Trouble
The stock ticker for CarMax Inc. begins with the letter “K,” which is apt given the signal it may be sending on the US economy.
www.bloomberg.com
November 8, 2025 at 4:47 PM
‘CarMax just dumped its chief executive officer, slashed guidance for the third quarter and saw its share price tumble as much as 20% to the lowest since 2012. The mounting evidence of cracks in the market is getting harder to ignore.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...