Peter Garnry, CFA
@petergarnry.gesdacapital.com
CEO & Co-founder at Gesda Capital. I’m passionated about equity investing and equity valuation. My vision is to show that active equity investing can work if set up properly. I was previously the Chief Investment Strategist at Saxo Bank.
A transformer on all banking is not a bad idea
November 14, 2025 at 11:26 PM
A transformer on all banking is not a bad idea
This chart shows that policies carried out in the US over the past couple of decades have not been generational neutral which is otherwise a good yardstick for any policy.
‘In 2010, the median age of all US homebuyers was 39 years old. Today, it is 59.’ www.apolloacademy.com/median-age-o...
November 13, 2025 at 6:34 PM
This chart shows that policies carried out in the US over the past couple of decades have not been generational neutral which is otherwise a good yardstick for any policy.
Reposted by Peter Garnry, CFA
Yardeni: “We are tracking the meltup scenario by monitoring the ratio of the S&P 100 to the S&P 500. The rapid rise in this ratio over the past couple of years is reminiscent of what happened during the Tech Bubble of the late 1990s.” www.dailychartbook.com/p/796 via @dailychartbook.bsky.social
November 13, 2025 at 3:38 PM
Yardeni: “We are tracking the meltup scenario by monitoring the ratio of the S&P 100 to the S&P 500. The rapid rise in this ratio over the past couple of years is reminiscent of what happened during the Tech Bubble of the late 1990s.” www.dailychartbook.com/p/796 via @dailychartbook.bsky.social
I like Cliff Asness’ comment on Odd Lots that 100% passive is a singularity. Like a black hole.
We know that we cannot go 100% but happens just before?
We know that we cannot go 100% but happens just before?
November 13, 2025 at 4:39 PM
I like Cliff Asness’ comment on Odd Lots that 100% passive is a singularity. Like a black hole.
We know that we cannot go 100% but happens just before?
We know that we cannot go 100% but happens just before?
Listed private equity firms are down 16.5% from the peak and have been in a drawdown since late January.
November 12, 2025 at 8:23 PM
Listed private equity firms are down 16.5% from the peak and have been in a drawdown since late January.
Det her er også et problem i Danmark. Jeg synes det er dybt foruroligende så meget betting fylder overalt. Og unge mænd er de mest sårbare viser statistikkerne…
Hate to keep beating the dead horse but sports betting is a societal scourge with serious repercussions www.statnews.com/2025/11/11/s... via @statnews.com
The rise of sports betting is a growing public health crisis
Sports betting is more addictive than ever, and millions of young Americans are paying the price.
www.statnews.com
November 11, 2025 at 10:33 PM
Det her er også et problem i Danmark. Jeg synes det er dybt foruroligende så meget betting fylder overalt. Og unge mænd er de mest sårbare viser statistikkerne…
I wrote an updated defense of active equity investing. I argue that the pendulum has swung too much in the direction of passive investing causing all sorts of distortions. Finally, I argue that understanding intangibles is a must for surviving the game...
petergarnry.substack.com/p/why-active...
petergarnry.substack.com/p/why-active...
Why active managers matter more than ever
The dominance of passive investing is at an inflection point
petergarnry.substack.com
November 10, 2025 at 9:23 PM
I wrote an updated defense of active equity investing. I argue that the pendulum has swung too much in the direction of passive investing causing all sorts of distortions. Finally, I argue that understanding intangibles is a must for surviving the game...
petergarnry.substack.com/p/why-active...
petergarnry.substack.com/p/why-active...
I love watching VCs plotting S&P 500 vs job openings and then say something strongly opinionated about AI productivity and “don’t tell me there is not a causal relationship”
Well you just made the 101 mistake in time series causality. But keep fooling yourself by randomness…
Well you just made the 101 mistake in time series causality. But keep fooling yourself by randomness…
November 9, 2025 at 7:54 PM
I love watching VCs plotting S&P 500 vs job openings and then say something strongly opinionated about AI productivity and “don’t tell me there is not a causal relationship”
Well you just made the 101 mistake in time series causality. But keep fooling yourself by randomness…
Well you just made the 101 mistake in time series causality. But keep fooling yourself by randomness…
I make 95% less Google Search this year after starting on Perplexity Pro. It is really good. Can highly recommend it.
Listen to this podcast on Perplexity. In my view they have the right vision for AI. OpenAI and Grok are both too focused on engagement.
podcasts.apple.com/dk/podcast/o...
Listen to this podcast on Perplexity. In my view they have the right vision for AI. OpenAI and Grok are both too focused on engagement.
podcasts.apple.com/dk/podcast/o...
Dmitry Shevelenko on Perplexity's Vision for Reshaping the Internet
Podcastepisode · Odd Lots · 06.11.2025 · 39 min.
podcasts.apple.com
November 7, 2025 at 10:42 PM
I make 95% less Google Search this year after starting on Perplexity Pro. It is really good. Can highly recommend it.
Listen to this podcast on Perplexity. In my view they have the right vision for AI. OpenAI and Grok are both too focused on engagement.
podcasts.apple.com/dk/podcast/o...
Listen to this podcast on Perplexity. In my view they have the right vision for AI. OpenAI and Grok are both too focused on engagement.
podcasts.apple.com/dk/podcast/o...
The bleeding across the long tail below the mega caps is more severe and profound than what the indices tell…
Chipotle has a 14 day RSI of 17 - on this measure it has not been this oversold since 2017
November 7, 2025 at 8:36 PM
The bleeding across the long tail below the mega caps is more severe and profound than what the indices tell…
Pasquariello should know better. Earnings are a bad proxy under growth as high reinvestments are not flowing through income statement immediately.
Replace earnings with free cash flow and the picture looks a bit different.
The bet is essentially. Do all these investments pay off as we used to…
Replace earnings with free cash flow and the picture looks a bit different.
The bet is essentially. Do all these investments pay off as we used to…
“.. I understand why the dark blue line makes folks uncomfortable, and it certainly invites questions of sustainability.
“.. at the same time, however, I’m not looking to pick a fight with the light blue line today (even if that day will come).”
- GS desk/Pasquariello
“.. at the same time, however, I’m not looking to pick a fight with the light blue line today (even if that day will come).”
- GS desk/Pasquariello
November 7, 2025 at 11:26 AM
Pasquariello should know better. Earnings are a bad proxy under growth as high reinvestments are not flowing through income statement immediately.
Replace earnings with free cash flow and the picture looks a bit different.
The bet is essentially. Do all these investments pay off as we used to…
Replace earnings with free cash flow and the picture looks a bit different.
The bet is essentially. Do all these investments pay off as we used to…
Sounds like the wrong incentive structure.
(Reuters) - Meta internally projected late last year that it would earn about 10% of its overall annual revenue – or $16 billion – from running advertising for scams and banned goods, internal company documents show.
$META @reuters.com
www.reuters.com/investigatio...
$META @reuters.com
www.reuters.com/investigatio...
November 7, 2025 at 5:51 AM
Sounds like the wrong incentive structure.
Okay, so everyone are suddenly worried about Celsius and their valuation and that the Celsius brand revenue growth slowed to 13% YoY.
Celsius is now valued 12m fwd EV/EBITDA at 19.4x vs Monster at 24.2x. Celsius is expected to grow revenue by 31.3% in 2026 and 12.8% in 2027. (1/n)
Celsius is now valued 12m fwd EV/EBITDA at 19.4x vs Monster at 24.2x. Celsius is expected to grow revenue by 31.3% in 2026 and 12.8% in 2027. (1/n)
November 6, 2025 at 8:49 PM
Okay, so everyone are suddenly worried about Celsius and their valuation and that the Celsius brand revenue growth slowed to 13% YoY.
Celsius is now valued 12m fwd EV/EBITDA at 19.4x vs Monster at 24.2x. Celsius is expected to grow revenue by 31.3% in 2026 and 12.8% in 2027. (1/n)
Celsius is now valued 12m fwd EV/EBITDA at 19.4x vs Monster at 24.2x. Celsius is expected to grow revenue by 31.3% in 2026 and 12.8% in 2027. (1/n)
So if the AI chips renewable cycle is shorter than expected it can be difficult to finance the AI infrastructure buildout at good enough debt terms slowing the speed. But if the government would "backstop" banks and PE firms would finance more easily.
I see...
www.wsj.com/video/openai...
I see...
www.wsj.com/video/openai...
OpenAI Wants Federal Backstop for New Investments
Sarah Friar, the CFO of OpenAI, says the company wants a federal guarantee to make it easier to finance massive investments in AI chips for data centers. Friar spoke at WSJ’s Tech Live event in Califo...
www.wsj.com
November 6, 2025 at 8:25 PM
So if the AI chips renewable cycle is shorter than expected it can be difficult to finance the AI infrastructure buildout at good enough debt terms slowing the speed. But if the government would "backstop" banks and PE firms would finance more easily.
I see...
www.wsj.com/video/openai...
I see...
www.wsj.com/video/openai...
I like Elon Musk’s pay package includes a goal of $50 EBITDA…which is the metric that is not necessarily correlated with shareholder value as investments are not penalised.
The Norwegian Sovereign Wealth fund did right thing to reject this pay package.
The Norwegian Sovereign Wealth fund did right thing to reject this pay package.
November 6, 2025 at 11:35 AM
I like Elon Musk’s pay package includes a goal of $50 EBITDA…which is the metric that is not necessarily correlated with shareholder value as investments are not penalised.
The Norwegian Sovereign Wealth fund did right thing to reject this pay package.
The Norwegian Sovereign Wealth fund did right thing to reject this pay package.
The young women voting across the recent elections in the US is quite interesting.
I would definitely hesitate to extrapolate into midterms, but it is a dynamic that might turn into something significant.
I would definitely hesitate to extrapolate into midterms, but it is a dynamic that might turn into something significant.
November 6, 2025 at 10:13 AM
The young women voting across the recent elections in the US is quite interesting.
I would definitely hesitate to extrapolate into midterms, but it is a dynamic that might turn into something significant.
I would definitely hesitate to extrapolate into midterms, but it is a dynamic that might turn into something significant.
I love when Palantir CEO gets angry at Michael Burry for being short the stock thinking Burry is selling physics shares.
According to the 13F filing, Burry is short via put options.
In other words, he is expressing a negative view in a derivative. Negative views are necessary for markets.
According to the 13F filing, Burry is short via put options.
In other words, he is expressing a negative view in a derivative. Negative views are necessary for markets.
November 6, 2025 at 10:11 AM
I love when Palantir CEO gets angry at Michael Burry for being short the stock thinking Burry is selling physics shares.
According to the 13F filing, Burry is short via put options.
In other words, he is expressing a negative view in a derivative. Negative views are necessary for markets.
According to the 13F filing, Burry is short via put options.
In other words, he is expressing a negative view in a derivative. Negative views are necessary for markets.
As we get closer to the US midterms stocks that are closest to Trump’s orbit could begin to get under pressure.
November 4, 2025 at 8:17 PM
As we get closer to the US midterms stocks that are closest to Trump’s orbit could begin to get under pressure.
There is a significant quality factor crash. Correlated with the rise in unprofitable technology companies and the narrowing breadth.
November 4, 2025 at 8:16 PM
There is a significant quality factor crash. Correlated with the rise in unprofitable technology companies and the narrowing breadth.
Sounds like a great product
“.. a problem-plagued run for a model that’s failed to catch on with consumers.”
@bloomberg.com $TSLA
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
@bloomberg.com $TSLA
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
October 31, 2025 at 7:30 AM
Sounds like a great product
Substitution from OPEX to CAPEX or labour to capital/machine if you will.
Big layoffs hitting Amazon as soon as tomorrow, including within the video-game division, sources tell Bloomberg www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Amazon Plans to Cut 30,000 Corporate Jobs, Reuters Reports
Amazon.com Inc. plans to cut corporate jobs in several key departments, including logistics, payments, video games and the cloud-computing unit, according to people familiar with the matter.
www.bloomberg.com
October 28, 2025 at 12:38 PM
Substitution from OPEX to CAPEX or labour to capital/machine if you will.
Prisoner’s Dilemma in one chart 👌
‘To sustain the gains investors are looking for assurances from the tech giants that the flow of tens of billions of dollars for computing infrastructure will continue — and ultimately pay off down the road.‘ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
October 28, 2025 at 12:36 PM
Prisoner’s Dilemma in one chart 👌
No wonder US labour force is hurting.
‘Profit margin estimates for 2026 and 2027 represent a sharp break with history. Are they sustainable?’ www.ft.com/content/b581...
October 23, 2025 at 7:44 PM
No wonder US labour force is hurting.
That’s why it always pays to think in second order effects…
On today’s Big Take Asia podcast: How China has cornered the market for rare earths and how it’s weaponizing that dominance ahead of a consequential trade meeting between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump.
How Rare Earths Become Powerful Trade Leverage for China
On today’s Big Take Asia podcast, how China cornered the market for rare earths and how it’s leveraging that dominance in a trade war with the US.
bloom.bg
October 22, 2025 at 7:37 AM
That’s why it always pays to think in second order effects…