Peter Garnry, CFA
@petergarnry.gesdacapital.com
CEO & Co-founder at Gesda Capital. I’m passionated about equity investing and equity valuation. My vision is to show that active equity investing can work if set up properly. I was previously the Chief Investment Strategist at Saxo Bank.
Reposted by Peter Garnry, CFA
“.. US stocks outperforming the rest of the world has been one of the strongest investing themes for years. It peaked in December 2024, right after Trump's win.”
- @weisenthal.bsky.social
- @weisenthal.bsky.social
February 5, 2026 at 12:20 PM
“.. US stocks outperforming the rest of the world has been one of the strongest investing themes for years. It peaked in December 2024, right after Trump's win.”
- @weisenthal.bsky.social
- @weisenthal.bsky.social
A lot of interesting observations from Joe...
I wrote about the crypto crash and why this is the worst crypto winter in the industry's history.
Sub to the Odd Lots newsletter here www.bloomberg.com/account/news...
Sub to the Odd Lots newsletter here www.bloomberg.com/account/news...
February 6, 2026 at 8:27 AM
A lot of interesting observations from Joe...
Of course the market gets spooked.
Their EBIT in 2025 is $80bn, then you add back the $1.4bn in amortization of acquired intangibles and subtract roughly $10bn in operating cash taxes so your NOPAT is ~$71.4bn. Now you are telling me that you want to spend $200bn in CapEx.
Their EBIT in 2025 is $80bn, then you add back the $1.4bn in amortization of acquired intangibles and subtract roughly $10bn in operating cash taxes so your NOPAT is ~$71.4bn. Now you are telling me that you want to spend $200bn in CapEx.
oh god it's huge
*AMAZON SEES 2026 CAPEX ABOUT $200B, EST. $146.11B
*AMAZON SEES 2026 CAPEX ABOUT $200B, EST. $146.11B
February 6, 2026 at 7:27 AM
Of course the market gets spooked.
Their EBIT in 2025 is $80bn, then you add back the $1.4bn in amortization of acquired intangibles and subtract roughly $10bn in operating cash taxes so your NOPAT is ~$71.4bn. Now you are telling me that you want to spend $200bn in CapEx.
Their EBIT in 2025 is $80bn, then you add back the $1.4bn in amortization of acquired intangibles and subtract roughly $10bn in operating cash taxes so your NOPAT is ~$71.4bn. Now you are telling me that you want to spend $200bn in CapEx.
Looking at Amazon's earnings release. Their long bullet list of things they have achieved or launched is hilarious. Where is the focus? Where is just reporting the necessary and reduce noise?
February 6, 2026 at 6:42 AM
Looking at Amazon's earnings release. Their long bullet list of things they have achieved or launched is hilarious. Where is the focus? Where is just reporting the necessary and reduce noise?
How can explain this? Is it retail flow, passive ETFs, regulation risk premium?
At face value it looks like the market is less efficient in valuing companies…
At face value it looks like the market is less efficient in valuing companies…
Forward P/E of $V vs $WMT (sorta h/t @michaelsantoli.bsky.social):
February 5, 2026 at 5:45 AM
How can explain this? Is it retail flow, passive ETFs, regulation risk premium?
At face value it looks like the market is less efficient in valuing companies…
At face value it looks like the market is less efficient in valuing companies…
So going from asset light to capital intensive business model is not pure fun and games after all…who would have thought
$MSFT has underperformed the S&P 500 on a trailing 5-year basis now.
February 2, 2026 at 7:09 PM
So going from asset light to capital intensive business model is not pure fun and games after all…who would have thought
The average maximum drawdown for US stocks during 1985-2024 is 85% according to Michael Mauboussin research. Every company goes through a big reprice - even the Mag7 has been through it…
$RACE Luxury Italian car manufacturer, Ferrari, is facing its largest drawdown since IPO in 2016, currently down 42% from highs.
February 2, 2026 at 5:30 PM
The average maximum drawdown for US stocks during 1985-2024 is 85% according to Michael Mauboussin research. Every company goes through a big reprice - even the Mag7 has been through it…
Says the CEO that lifted the number of employees by 10% in 2025. So if one could lift the same workload as a team with AI it implies 5x productivity gain. I will look forward to a 80% reduction in Meta employees.
I hope everyone can see the unnecessary hype
www.businessinsider.com/meta-says-ai...
I hope everyone can see the unnecessary hype
www.businessinsider.com/meta-says-ai...
Zuckerberg says AI is letting one employee do the work of entire teams. Here's what the move says about the future of hiring.
The tech giant is doubling down on a trend of companies operating with leaner workforces, though it's still on the hunt for rockstar talent.
www.businessinsider.com
January 30, 2026 at 4:54 PM
Says the CEO that lifted the number of employees by 10% in 2025. So if one could lift the same workload as a team with AI it implies 5x productivity gain. I will look forward to a 80% reduction in Meta employees.
I hope everyone can see the unnecessary hype
www.businessinsider.com/meta-says-ai...
I hope everyone can see the unnecessary hype
www.businessinsider.com/meta-says-ai...
That one of the world’s most top notch commercial research labs feels threatened is a bad sign.
Google DeepMind staffers are pressing leadership on their plans to safeguard the 3,000-person unit from ICE agents.
"As we have seen, government agency tactics can change and escalate quite rapidly. With offices in many metro areas across the US, are we prepared?"
Scoop from @mzeff.bsky.social
"As we have seen, government agency tactics can change and escalate quite rapidly. With offices in many metro areas across the US, are we prepared?"
Scoop from @mzeff.bsky.social
Google DeepMind Staffers Ask Leaders to Keep Them ‘Physically Safe’ From ICE
A federal agent allegedly tried to enter Google’s Cambridge campus in the fall, WIRED has learned. Now, staffers want policies that protect them from immigration officials.
www.wired.com
January 28, 2026 at 8:52 PM
That one of the world’s most top notch commercial research labs feels threatened is a bad sign.
The CapEx vs Opex dance in US technology continues. In order to avoid a repricing of equity valuations as CapEx explodes higher they bring down Opex to preserve margins and free cash flows.
It can last in the short-term but also in the long-term?
#stocks #$AMZN
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
It can last in the short-term but also in the long-term?
#stocks #$AMZN
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Amazon Plans to Cut 16,000 Jobs as AI Competition Heats Up
Amazon.com Inc. announced plans to terminate about 16,000 corporate employees, ratcheting up efforts to streamline bureaucracy amid rising competition over artificial intelligence.
www.bloomberg.com
January 28, 2026 at 11:20 AM
The CapEx vs Opex dance in US technology continues. In order to avoid a repricing of equity valuations as CapEx explodes higher they bring down Opex to preserve margins and free cash flows.
It can last in the short-term but also in the long-term?
#stocks #$AMZN
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
It can last in the short-term but also in the long-term?
#stocks #$AMZN
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Impressive beat by ASML. Forward-looking indicators suggest demand is still strong...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
ASML’s Record Orders Smash Estimates as AI Spurs Demand
ASML Holding NV’s orders in the fourth quarter far exceeded analysts’ expectations, as the rapid development of artificial intelligence infrastructure boosted demand for its cutting-edge chip-making m...
www.bloomberg.com
January 28, 2026 at 11:16 AM
Impressive beat by ASML. Forward-looking indicators suggest demand is still strong...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Doing deep research on electrification for our next investment. Cannot disclose yet what we are looking at, but when we make the investment we will argue our case.
Electrification has so many layers and investment opportunities that narrowing it down to one potential long-term winner is hard...
Electrification has so many layers and investment opportunities that narrowing it down to one potential long-term winner is hard...
January 28, 2026 at 11:07 AM
Doing deep research on electrification for our next investment. Cannot disclose yet what we are looking at, but when we make the investment we will argue our case.
Electrification has so many layers and investment opportunities that narrowing it down to one potential long-term winner is hard...
Electrification has so many layers and investment opportunities that narrowing it down to one potential long-term winner is hard...
Putting the relative pricing aside the fact that gold and silver have a non-linear price move on log-scale says that the price behaviour is bubble like and unsustainable. We have seen it three times in Bitcoin. It always ends the same way…
‘Gold has only been as expensive relative to other assets once in its modern history, at its 1980 peak.’ blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...
January 26, 2026 at 9:22 PM
Putting the relative pricing aside the fact that gold and silver have a non-linear price move on log-scale says that the price behaviour is bubble like and unsustainable. We have seen it three times in Bitcoin. It always ends the same way…
My latest Substack article. Essentially a book review of "The Compounders" with my perspectives.
petergarnry.substack.com/p/is-there-a...
petergarnry.substack.com/p/is-there-a...
Is there a formula for compounders?
Evolution suggests temporarily
petergarnry.substack.com
January 26, 2026 at 7:54 PM
My latest Substack article. Essentially a book review of "The Compounders" with my perspectives.
petergarnry.substack.com/p/is-there-a...
petergarnry.substack.com/p/is-there-a...
Listening to the Odd Lots podcast with the CEO of PNC Financial Services.
I really don’t understand, and I don’t think Tracy and Joe are pressing on this, but why is a national bank so focused on growing branches.
In 2026, surely the mission should be solving the SME problems digitally.
I really don’t understand, and I don’t think Tracy and Joe are pressing on this, but why is a national bank so focused on growing branches.
In 2026, surely the mission should be solving the SME problems digitally.
January 26, 2026 at 6:32 PM
Listening to the Odd Lots podcast with the CEO of PNC Financial Services.
I really don’t understand, and I don’t think Tracy and Joe are pressing on this, but why is a national bank so focused on growing branches.
In 2026, surely the mission should be solving the SME problems digitally.
I really don’t understand, and I don’t think Tracy and Joe are pressing on this, but why is a national bank so focused on growing branches.
In 2026, surely the mission should be solving the SME problems digitally.
I’m tired of listening to Danish/European tech entrepreneurs complaining about different rules and laws across European countries as a big problem for scaling.
US business people also complain about different rules across US states for wages, permits etc. Scaling in the US is also tough.
US business people also complain about different rules across US states for wages, permits etc. Scaling in the US is also tough.
January 25, 2026 at 3:22 PM
I’m tired of listening to Danish/European tech entrepreneurs complaining about different rules and laws across European countries as a big problem for scaling.
US business people also complain about different rules across US states for wages, permits etc. Scaling in the US is also tough.
US business people also complain about different rules across US states for wages, permits etc. Scaling in the US is also tough.
This is such a bad sign for the US. When science and the scientific method is questioned against obvious statistical significance bad things will happen over time…
* MODERNA IS CURBING INVESTMENT VACCINE TRIALS DUE TO US BACKLASH -- BLOOMBERG NEWS
* MODERNA IS CURBING INVESTMENT IN VACCINE TRIALS DUE TO OPPOSITION TO IMMUNIZATIONS FROM US OFFICIALS -- BLOOMBERG NEWS
@reuters.com #$MRNA
* MODERNA IS CURBING INVESTMENT IN VACCINE TRIALS DUE TO OPPOSITION TO IMMUNIZATIONS FROM US OFFICIALS -- BLOOMBERG NEWS
@reuters.com #$MRNA
January 22, 2026 at 4:04 PM
This is such a bad sign for the US. When science and the scientific method is questioned against obvious statistical significance bad things will happen over time…
The junk rally
“It’s already been an . . . eventful year, but under the hood something odd and interesting is happening in the US stock market: the trashiest, most hated shares are soaring.‘ www.ft.com/content/a5fa...
January 21, 2026 at 4:07 PM
The junk rally
Trump’s unpredictability makes long-term deal-making and relationships impossible.
The EU–Mercosur and Canada-China are signs of this.
The EU–Mercosur and Canada-China are signs of this.
January 17, 2026 at 7:20 PM
Trump’s unpredictability makes long-term deal-making and relationships impossible.
The EU–Mercosur and Canada-China are signs of this.
The EU–Mercosur and Canada-China are signs of this.
I expect the Netherlands to follow. Shipping routes across the North Pole during warmer weather mostly end in Rotterdam so protecting Europe’s trade fleet and ensure security of volume into Rotterdam is of national interest to the Netherlands.
And the advance teams are on their way to 🇬🇱Greenland to prepare deployment of 🇩🇰Danish and allied troops from 🇸🇪Sweden, 🇳🇴Norway, 🇩🇪Germany & 🇫🇷 France. More countries will join Operation Arctic Endurance. Stay tuned.
January 14, 2026 at 9:32 PM
I expect the Netherlands to follow. Shipping routes across the North Pole during warmer weather mostly end in Rotterdam so protecting Europe’s trade fleet and ensure security of volume into Rotterdam is of national interest to the Netherlands.
The bigger point is that HSBC and McKinsey have zero skin in the game when making these forecasts. As a result they are useless. Only serves an entertainment purpose.
Let’s check out what hsbc has said in the past!
January 14, 2026 at 9:30 PM
The bigger point is that HSBC and McKinsey have zero skin in the game when making these forecasts. As a result they are useless. Only serves an entertainment purpose.
Weird session
Wow just seeing the carnage in $ADBE, $CRM, $DOCU, $INTU, $WDAY, $TEAM, etc.
January 13, 2026 at 9:59 PM
Weird session
The future. More and more production will in the future be closer to end consumer markets.
Robot manufacturing of goods cost more or less the same in China as in Europe.
This is just the beginning
Robot manufacturing of goods cost more or less the same in China as in Europe.
This is just the beginning
Game On: the Swiss sports brand using hi-tech and chutzpah to challenge Nike and Adidas
Zurich-based firm taps into latest robot tech to ‘fibre-spray’ high-end sports shoes worn by the likes of Roger Federer
www.theguardian.com/business/202...
Zurich-based firm taps into latest robot tech to ‘fibre-spray’ high-end sports shoes worn by the likes of Roger Federer
www.theguardian.com/business/202...
Game On: the Swiss sports brand using hi-tech and chutzpah to challenge Nike and Adidas
Zurich-based firm taps into latest robot tech to ‘fibre-spray’ high-end sports shoes worn by the likes of Roger Federer
www.theguardian.com
January 11, 2026 at 8:04 PM
The future. More and more production will in the future be closer to end consumer markets.
Robot manufacturing of goods cost more or less the same in China as in Europe.
This is just the beginning
Robot manufacturing of goods cost more or less the same in China as in Europe.
This is just the beginning
Finally.
Propose an Arctic Defense Alliance.
Greenland, US, Canada, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland, UK, France, the Netherlands and Germany.
Propose an Arctic Defense Alliance.
Greenland, US, Canada, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland, UK, France, the Netherlands and Germany.
“Germany will propose setting up a joint NATO mission to protect the Arctic region, the Bloomberg report added, citing people familiar with the plans.”
UK, Germany discuss NATO forces in Greenland to calm US threat, Bloomberg News reports
A group of European countries, led by Britain and Germany, is discussing plans to boost their military presence in Greenland to show U.S. President Donald Trump that the continent is serious about Arc...
www.reuters.com
January 11, 2026 at 7:56 PM
Finally.
Propose an Arctic Defense Alliance.
Greenland, US, Canada, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland, UK, France, the Netherlands and Germany.
Propose an Arctic Defense Alliance.
Greenland, US, Canada, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland, UK, France, the Netherlands and Germany.
My eldest son (11 years old) wanted new shin pads for his football practice. Size was 10x6cm.
I said: “that’s joke right? They are for small 4-year olds”
He wants them because more and more professionel football players are using mini-pads. Everyone is obsessed about aesthetics over safety.
I said: “that’s joke right? They are for small 4-year olds”
He wants them because more and more professionel football players are using mini-pads. Everyone is obsessed about aesthetics over safety.
January 11, 2026 at 7:53 PM
My eldest son (11 years old) wanted new shin pads for his football practice. Size was 10x6cm.
I said: “that’s joke right? They are for small 4-year olds”
He wants them because more and more professionel football players are using mini-pads. Everyone is obsessed about aesthetics over safety.
I said: “that’s joke right? They are for small 4-year olds”
He wants them because more and more professionel football players are using mini-pads. Everyone is obsessed about aesthetics over safety.