Amanda Hoey
@amandahoey.bsky.social
UConn Law student, former Democratic campaign pollster, crazy dog lady, hockey/college basketball/F1 fan. She/her/hers. 🏳️🌈 https://thewordcloud.beehiiv.com/
Pinned
Amanda Hoey
@amandahoey.bsky.social
· Sep 19
Good morning, new followers from the polling and data starter pack!
I don’t work in the industry anymore but spent 10 years as a pollster/campaign consultant for Democratic candidates and causes. These days I’m in law school, hoping to practice labor law, but still post about polling regularly-ish.
I don’t work in the industry anymore but spent 10 years as a pollster/campaign consultant for Democratic candidates and causes. These days I’m in law school, hoping to practice labor law, but still post about polling regularly-ish.
I’m not a Business Expert or anything, but I feel like if I were a major shareholder in a company and the CEO of said company went off on an unhinged rant about the woke left in response to a very basic business question, I’d have some concerns about their performance!
November 11, 2025 at 6:08 PM
I’m not a Business Expert or anything, but I feel like if I were a major shareholder in a company and the CEO of said company went off on an unhinged rant about the woke left in response to a very basic business question, I’d have some concerns about their performance!
Reposted by Amanda Hoey
Dems will almost certainly flip one seat on Utah's new congressional map if it stands.
It creates a safely blue Harris+24 seat in Salt Lake City, replacing a GOP gerrymander that split the SLC area four ways to ensure every seat was dark red.
Interactive map: davesredistricting.org/join/cf1048c...
It creates a safely blue Harris+24 seat in Salt Lake City, replacing a GOP gerrymander that split the SLC area four ways to ensure every seat was dark red.
Interactive map: davesredistricting.org/join/cf1048c...
November 11, 2025 at 2:56 PM
Dems will almost certainly flip one seat on Utah's new congressional map if it stands.
It creates a safely blue Harris+24 seat in Salt Lake City, replacing a GOP gerrymander that split the SLC area four ways to ensure every seat was dark red.
Interactive map: davesredistricting.org/join/cf1048c...
It creates a safely blue Harris+24 seat in Salt Lake City, replacing a GOP gerrymander that split the SLC area four ways to ensure every seat was dark red.
Interactive map: davesredistricting.org/join/cf1048c...
Reposted by Amanda Hoey
get mad and, instead of quitting, elect better democrats
it’s possible
it’s possible
JUST IN: Katie Wilson is now ahead of Mayor Bruce Harrell in the Seattle mayoral race.
Stay tuned for details on today's count.
Stay tuned for details on today's count.
November 11, 2025 at 12:44 AM
get mad and, instead of quitting, elect better democrats
it’s possible
it’s possible
Reposted by Amanda Hoey
Wilson is now leading in the vote count for Seattle mayor by 91 votes. There are still several thousand ballots to count, likely—based on historical examples—to favor Wilson.
Wilson may be the most truly "urbanist" mayoral candidate in the country.
Wilson may be the most truly "urbanist" mayoral candidate in the country.
Who is Katie Wilson?
She’s head of the Seattle Transit Riders Union.
Her platform proposes to massively increase funding for affordable housing, cut red tape for development, shift away from single occupancy cars, & develop the transit network.
And she may well be the next mayor of the city.
She’s head of the Seattle Transit Riders Union.
Her platform proposes to massively increase funding for affordable housing, cut red tape for development, shift away from single occupancy cars, & develop the transit network.
And she may well be the next mayor of the city.
In my spreadsheet (which makes assumptions about fall off, write-ins, probably has mistakes, etc.), Katie needed to average 54.6% to win by a little over 100 votes.
Today she got 54.85%.
A friend says she needs 54.2% from here on out--will do my own math shortly.
Today she got 54.85%.
A friend says she needs 54.2% from here on out--will do my own math shortly.
November 10, 2025 at 11:58 PM
Wilson is now leading in the vote count for Seattle mayor by 91 votes. There are still several thousand ballots to count, likely—based on historical examples—to favor Wilson.
Wilson may be the most truly "urbanist" mayoral candidate in the country.
Wilson may be the most truly "urbanist" mayoral candidate in the country.
Speaking of which, my cannabis law professor is currently on a tangent about effective altruism, and one of these days I really need to develop and write about the not even quarter-baked idea in my head of the strike song "Bread and Roses" as anti-effective altruism argument.
Checked X and Truth Social and didn't see it there either. I'll eat crow if this stupidity is real, but I don't think it is. Also, now I'm glad I groused about the Laffer curve in last week's cannabis law class so any classmates who can see my screen know I'm not a Trump supporter. 😂
November 10, 2025 at 11:50 PM
Speaking of which, my cannabis law professor is currently on a tangent about effective altruism, and one of these days I really need to develop and write about the not even quarter-baked idea in my head of the strike song "Bread and Roses" as anti-effective altruism argument.
Reposted by Amanda Hoey
If you’re seeing this viral claim that Trump is working on 15-year car loans, it’s fake.
November 10, 2025 at 11:38 PM
If you’re seeing this viral claim that Trump is working on 15-year car loans, it’s fake.
Is there an actual link for the 15-year car loan thing? I checked the White House website briefly and didn't see anything about it, just the image floating around from an account I don't recognize.
November 10, 2025 at 11:30 PM
Is there an actual link for the 15-year car loan thing? I checked the White House website briefly and didn't see anything about it, just the image floating around from an account I don't recognize.
This may not be the best day for half-baked philosophy, but it came to mind while I was at the dentist and I just want to say it out loud.
I’m pondering the idea that compared to current LLMs, what makes it possible to distinguish a real human, and maybe therefore part of being human, is rebellion.
I’m pondering the idea that compared to current LLMs, what makes it possible to distinguish a real human, and maybe therefore part of being human, is rebellion.
November 10, 2025 at 9:24 PM
This may not be the best day for half-baked philosophy, but it came to mind while I was at the dentist and I just want to say it out loud.
I’m pondering the idea that compared to current LLMs, what makes it possible to distinguish a real human, and maybe therefore part of being human, is rebellion.
I’m pondering the idea that compared to current LLMs, what makes it possible to distinguish a real human, and maybe therefore part of being human, is rebellion.
Reposted by Amanda Hoey
Hoyer is notable because his desire for certain territory in his district helped prevent an 8-0 map with a third Black district in prior remaps (especially in 2012).
If Axios' recent report that he's likely to retire is accurate, it would make an 8-0 map with increased Black representation easier
If Axios' recent report that he's likely to retire is accurate, it would make an 8-0 map with increased Black representation easier
Steny Hoyer & Jamie Raskin send letter to MD Senate President Bill Ferguson, who has opposed mid-decade redistricting, saying that he should move forward with a new map:
"We believe such an effort can survive any legal attack"
"We believe such an effort can survive any legal attack"
Exclusive: Hoyer, Raskin pressure Ferguson to join national redistricting fight
Reps. Steny Hoyer and Jamie Raskin are sending a letter Monday to the state’s General Assembly, applying pressure on Senate President Bill Ferguson.
www.baltimoresun.com
November 10, 2025 at 8:42 PM
Hoyer is notable because his desire for certain territory in his district helped prevent an 8-0 map with a third Black district in prior remaps (especially in 2012).
If Axios' recent report that he's likely to retire is accurate, it would make an 8-0 map with increased Black representation easier
If Axios' recent report that he's likely to retire is accurate, it would make an 8-0 map with increased Black representation easier
The best part is that it’s an ad for Blinkist, which sells you brief summaries of the key points in nonfiction books. He can’t even pretend to enjoy reading for reading’s sake.
November 10, 2025 at 7:01 PM
The best part is that it’s an ad for Blinkist, which sells you brief summaries of the key points in nonfiction books. He can’t even pretend to enjoy reading for reading’s sake.
I also think there’s some value in someone who has never been a Senator being in a position to tell the Senate Dem caucus “wait a minute, what the actual fuck are you doing?” when it comes to things like the filibuster and court reform.
Honestly, I do think it’ll have to be a governor on the ticket in 2028 because earned or not, everyone in Congress will have loser energy vibes as an unavoidable side effect of being in the minority under Trump.
November 10, 2025 at 6:53 PM
I also think there’s some value in someone who has never been a Senator being in a position to tell the Senate Dem caucus “wait a minute, what the actual fuck are you doing?” when it comes to things like the filibuster and court reform.
Reposted by Amanda Hoey
Right, the answer isn't to abandon the party to these weasels.
The answer is to flood the party with people who will take it over and transform it.
The answer is to flood the party with people who will take it over and transform it.
Hey, a lot of people are talking about changing affiliation from Democratic to Independent.
Let me tell you why you shouldn’t do that in Colorado.
One of the main ways to get a primary challenge candidate on a ballot is to caucus for your party. You need to be registered as a Dem to caucus.
Let me tell you why you shouldn’t do that in Colorado.
One of the main ways to get a primary challenge candidate on a ballot is to caucus for your party. You need to be registered as a Dem to caucus.
November 10, 2025 at 4:49 PM
Right, the answer isn't to abandon the party to these weasels.
The answer is to flood the party with people who will take it over and transform it.
The answer is to flood the party with people who will take it over and transform it.
Reposted by Amanda Hoey
they understand insurance. the entire premise of libertarian opposition to mandatory insurance is that they should not have to care about anyone else and be permitted to take risks. it's the same opposition to vaccination and taxation.
they are bad neighbors.
they are bad neighbors.
Tell me you don’t understand risk pools without telling me you don’t understand risk pools
November 10, 2025 at 4:32 PM
they understand insurance. the entire premise of libertarian opposition to mandatory insurance is that they should not have to care about anyone else and be permitted to take risks. it's the same opposition to vaccination and taxation.
they are bad neighbors.
they are bad neighbors.
Reposted by Amanda Hoey
Josh phrases this a bit more gently than I would, but I think the core of this is right. We're fighting to change the Democratic Party, and we've still got a long way to go. But the fight is ongoing, and the party's center has already shifted dramatically in our direction.
A Quick Take on Team Cave’s Big Win
I have what I suspect is a somewhat counterintuitive take on the...
talkingpointsmemo.com
November 10, 2025 at 3:11 PM
Josh phrases this a bit more gently than I would, but I think the core of this is right. We're fighting to change the Democratic Party, and we've still got a long way to go. But the fight is ongoing, and the party's center has already shifted dramatically in our direction.
Reposted by Amanda Hoey
BTW, this is a really important message. For better or for worse, there's only one vehicle for effective opposition to democratic backsliding in this country, and that's the Democratic Party.
I have always been a Democrat and I always will be. To walk away from them now is exactly what Republicans want. After last week's election they are worried. Trump is terrified. Show them we are disappointed but united, and that they have a reason to be worried. It will make them very nervous.
November 10, 2025 at 3:01 PM
BTW, this is a really important message. For better or for worse, there's only one vehicle for effective opposition to democratic backsliding in this country, and that's the Democratic Party.
Reposted by Amanda Hoey
Pelosi: ‘Well, Well, Well, Not So Easy To Find Congressional Leadership That Doesn’t Suck Shit, Huh?’
November 9, 2025 at 9:11 PM
Pelosi: ‘Well, Well, Well, Not So Easy To Find Congressional Leadership That Doesn’t Suck Shit, Huh?’
Reposted by Amanda Hoey
3 GOOD: some real approps working right for the first time in EONS, built based on need & politics, not from toplines. SHALL language on backpay 4 feds. Good anti-RIF language we’d want to see continued
2 BAD: Nothing forces Trump to actually FOLLOW the approps. A vote we could have forced already
2 BAD: Nothing forces Trump to actually FOLLOW the approps. A vote we could have forced already
Text of the CR here. Negative implications galore.
www.appropriations.senate.gov/imo/media/do...
www.appropriations.senate.gov/imo/media/do...
www.appropriations.senate.gov
November 10, 2025 at 12:10 AM
3 GOOD: some real approps working right for the first time in EONS, built based on need & politics, not from toplines. SHALL language on backpay 4 feds. Good anti-RIF language we’d want to see continued
2 BAD: Nothing forces Trump to actually FOLLOW the approps. A vote we could have forced already
2 BAD: Nothing forces Trump to actually FOLLOW the approps. A vote we could have forced already
Reposted by Amanda Hoey
Keep up the pressure folks. The folders are getting screamed at and realizing there won't be a shred of cover.
Whats interesting is how Slotkin was involved early on but not at the end
November 9, 2025 at 11:26 PM
Keep up the pressure folks. The folders are getting screamed at and realizing there won't be a shred of cover.
Reposted by Amanda Hoey
Hickenlooper isn't 100% necessary, but the math to get 8 to fold without him is hard.
Hickenlooper walking this back now
November 9, 2025 at 10:37 PM
Hickenlooper isn't 100% necessary, but the math to get 8 to fold without him is hard.
That man is never going to convene the House again, is he? He's so sweatily desperate to avoid swearing in Adelita Grijalva and giving the discharge petition on the Epstein files its 218th signature.
Anyway, hope this gets to the Senate Dem caucus. No reason to bend if it won't end the shutdown.
Anyway, hope this gets to the Senate Dem caucus. No reason to bend if it won't end the shutdown.
Fun fact, let’s say Thune does give Senate Dems a vote and doesnt whip against ACA subsidies, Speaker Johnson has no intention of ever holding a vote on it
November 9, 2025 at 10:13 PM
That man is never going to convene the House again, is he? He's so sweatily desperate to avoid swearing in Adelita Grijalva and giving the discharge petition on the Epstein files its 218th signature.
Anyway, hope this gets to the Senate Dem caucus. No reason to bend if it won't end the shutdown.
Anyway, hope this gets to the Senate Dem caucus. No reason to bend if it won't end the shutdown.
Something on my mind: people say that after the elections on Tuesday, Dems have more leverage and should use it. The problem, as I see it, is that nothing in the GOP's negotiating posture indicates they think they've lost any leverage. And so, if Dems cave, they think this is the only way to end it.
Amid the talk about Dems "caving," we can also imagine senators hearing from anguished SNAP recipients who can't feed their kids, fed'l employees who can't pay their rent, and constituents who can't go home for T'giving, and figuring, we'll fight this battle another day www.axios.com/2025/11/09/s...
Deal to end government shutdown in reach
At least 10 Senate Democrats are expected to support a key procedural motion.
www.axios.com
November 9, 2025 at 9:55 PM
Something on my mind: people say that after the elections on Tuesday, Dems have more leverage and should use it. The problem, as I see it, is that nothing in the GOP's negotiating posture indicates they think they've lost any leverage. And so, if Dems cave, they think this is the only way to end it.
Reposted by Amanda Hoey
We just need a seething mass of liberal multimillionaires & billionaires to get into the habit of giving uncomfortable amounts of money to projects that will probably fail because they're afraid that if they don't, their children will be indoctrinated into Nazism
the liberal version of The Heritage Foundation doesn't exist but it should
we need a Reconstruction 2029 plan that half of our candidates have to disown for its extremism
we need a Reconstruction 2029 plan that half of our candidates have to disown for its extremism
November 9, 2025 at 4:50 PM
We just need a seething mass of liberal multimillionaires & billionaires to get into the habit of giving uncomfortable amounts of money to projects that will probably fail because they're afraid that if they don't, their children will be indoctrinated into Nazism
Reposted by Amanda Hoey
I know it's hard to tell anymore, but the Sean Duffy quote about how pilots should just rely on their gut is not only fake but lifted without acknowledgment from The Onion.
November 9, 2025 at 12:37 AM
I know it's hard to tell anymore, but the Sean Duffy quote about how pilots should just rely on their gut is not only fake but lifted without acknowledgment from The Onion.