Christian Odendahl

Christian Odendahl @codendahl.bsky.social · 12h

Hahaha, no. But I was great moral support. 😀

Christian Odendahl @codendahl.bsky.social · 12h

Sorry! Yes, sarcasm.

Christian Odendahl @codendahl.bsky.social · 12h

If you want to discuss this further, ask @johnspringford.bsky.social, who has done the most consistent cost-of-Brexit work out there over the years. I know because I was sitting at the desk next to him for some of that time.

Christian Odendahl @codendahl.bsky.social · 12h

Jajaja, I hear you say. Synthetic control etc.

To which I respond. 1) that is still a good, sophisticated before-after method with robustness checks and everything, and 2) they also do firm-level data diff-in-diff, and 3) they discuss the merits of both methods and compare.

Christian Odendahl @codendahl.bsky.social · 12h

"We estimate that investment was reduced by between 12% and 18%, employment by 3% to 4% and productivity by 3% to 4%." #Brexit

Nobody could have predicted this. www.nber.org/papers/w34459

The Economic Impact of Brexit

Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...

www.nber.org

Christian Odendahl @codendahl.bsky.social · 13h

Quite like him, who doesn't? But I am not sure the big states would hand him the top job. He is probably in the running for the exec board, though.

Christian Odendahl @codendahl.bsky.social · 13h

But after an Italian and a French head of the #ECB, the argument for a northern one is strong. Which is why Klaas #Knot is probably the best candidate, he knows his stuff, is outspoken, very experienced and has the political nous to steer the ECB through potentially quite turbulent times.

Christian Odendahl @codendahl.bsky.social · 13h

On second thought, it shouldn't be a German. The ECB will play an increasingly political role -- esp if France or others are governed by hard-right parties ( cf @sophiepedder.bsky.social's piece on Bardella and the ECB a.o. www.economist.com/europe/2025/...). We don't need a euro crisis 2.0.

Christian Odendahl @codendahl.bsky.social · 13h

Ok, fine. I'll do it.

Paweł Tokarski @tokarski.bsky.social · 13h

There is growing speculation about who will succeed Christine Lagarde at the ECB.

www.ft.com/content/45fc...

ECB to kick off race for top roles as Lagarde era enters final stretch

Four of six jobs on central bank’s executive board become vacant before end of 2027, including the presidency

www.ft.com

Paweł Tokarski @tokarski.bsky.social · 13h

There is growing speculation about who will succeed Christine Lagarde at the ECB.

www.ft.com/content/45fc...

ECB to kick off race for top roles as Lagarde era enters final stretch

Four of six jobs on central bank’s executive board become vacant before end of 2027, including the presidency

www.ft.com

Christian Odendahl @codendahl.bsky.social · 13h

"Should there be any external attacks against Hungary or its financial system, the Americans gave their word that in such a case they would defend Hungary's financial stability."

Is that a swap line? Argentina style bailout-for-beef thing? www.reuters.com/world/hungar...

Hungary has financial shield agreement with Washington, Orban says

Hungary has secured an agreement with Washington on a "financial shield" to protect its economy and public finances, Prime Minister Viktor Orban said after talks with U.S. President Donald Trump.

www.reuters.com

Christian Odendahl @codendahl.bsky.social · 13h

Switzerland might get 15% after all.

Here is what I wrote over the summer. #gold #pharma www.economist.com/europe/2025/...

A tariff avalanche catches Switzerland unawares

The soaring rate is based on exports of Trump’s favourite metal

www.economist.com

Christian Odendahl @codendahl.bsky.social · 15h

"The EU’s past ability to match the US in #trade matters was a function of the US being willing to play by the rules. It relied on the assumption that the two powers would keep trade and security matters in separate silos." mailings.cer.eu/insights/thr...

Three hard lessons for European trade

Global trade policy is now dominated by great power politics, putting Europe under pressure. The EU will have to accommodate the US, confront China and derisk from both.

mailings.cer.eu

Christian Odendahl @codendahl.bsky.social · 19h

“From my younger millennial vantage point, it’s impossible not to scoff.” www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

Untouchable Baby Boomers Have Europe in a Choke Hold

“If we’re to build the future of Britain together, we’ll all have to contribute.” These stirring words of national esprit de corps came from UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves last week, as ...

www.bloomberg.com

unioncity.bsky.social @unioncity.bsky.social · 1d

I for one will welcome our Chinese overlords #Beerjacket #China #Tsingtao

Hadas Weiss @hadas.bsky.social · 1d

early career scholar and their first publication

Christian Odendahl @codendahl.bsky.social · 3d

Ha!

Una Hajdari @unawrites.bsky.social · 3d

Hungarian PM Viktor Orban being like “we allow zero migrants in without permission… for that we have to pay €1 million to the Brusselian [sic] budget daily,” and Trump is probably thinking “the Brazilian budget? I just gave Argentina €20 billion, I know what that’s like…”

Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social · 3d

Check out the latest Russia Contingency. I join the head of Lasar’s Group, one of Ukraine’s best and lesser known drone units to talk about their experience, how drone use is evolving, adaptation on both sides, and what the future holds.
@WarOnTheRocks warontherocks.com/episode/ther...

Ukrainian Drone Unit Commander Shares Lessons from the Front - War on the Rocks

warontherocks.com

Christian Odendahl @codendahl.bsky.social · 3d

No sure, you do that. That's fine. The long-term expected return is higher than the bond yield, that's all we need.

Christian Odendahl @codendahl.bsky.social · 3d

As indeed I have argued in The Economist in February 2024. www.economist.com/leaders/2024...

How to put Russia’s frozen assets to work for Ukraine

Exploit them to the full, but legally

www.economist.com

Christian Odendahl @codendahl.bsky.social · 3d

In other words, the whole legal and political hassle of taking the money from Euroclear (via an EU bond), and handing the money to Ukraine could be avoided by just issuing an EU bond, handing *that* money to Ukraine, and servicing it from the returns on Euroclear's assets.

Christian Odendahl @codendahl.bsky.social · 3d

Just to compare this to the Norwegian oil fund.

Return last 10 years: 7.4%
last 5 years: 9.4%
last 12 months: 10.12%

Since 1998: 6.4%

Christian Odendahl @codendahl.bsky.social · 3d

The economist in me loves this.

European 10y gov bonds have a yield of 3.2%. They assume 4%. Fine.

Should Euroclear not be able, with some prodding, to generate above 4% nominal returns?

Henry Foy @henryjfoy.ft.com · 3d

Brussels vs Belgium: Commission says that if Belgium won't sign off on a €140bn loan to Ukraine against Russian assets, EU countries will need to find up to €5.6bn a year to service a loan raised on the open market.

@bmoens.bsky.social & I got the document so you don't have to

on.ft.com/47LzdiM

EU must pay up to €5.6bn a year in interest if no agreement on Russian assets, Brussels warns

[FREE TO READ] Choices for Ukraine funding set out in commission document drafted after failure to agree plan last month

on.ft.com

Jonathan Rosenthal @journalistjon.bsky.social · 3d

For this week's issue of @economist.com I got to think hard about something I've not had to think about for more than 20 years: the world of dating and singles. What I found shocked me. Rates of singlehood (singledom) have been rising for decades, but have suddenly accelerated in recent years. 1/

Henry Foy @henryjfoy.ft.com · 3d

Brussels vs Belgium: Commission says that if Belgium won't sign off on a €140bn loan to Ukraine against Russian assets, EU countries will need to find up to €5.6bn a year to service a loan raised on the open market.

@bmoens.bsky.social & I got the document so you don't have to

on.ft.com/47LzdiM

EU must pay up to €5.6bn a year in interest if no agreement on Russian assets, Brussels warns

[FREE TO READ] Choices for Ukraine funding set out in commission document drafted after failure to agree plan last month

on.ft.com

Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · 3d

Huge Nexperia news

The Netherlands is prepared to suspend a ministerial order that gave it control over Chinese-owned chipmaker Nexperia if chip shipments resume in the coming days

Dutch Ready to Drop Control of Nexperia If Chip Supply Resumes

The Netherlands is prepared to suspend a so-called ministerial order that gave it control over Chinese-owned chipmaker Nexperia in a move that would de-escalate a fight with Beijing that threatens to disrupt automotive production around the world.

www.bloomberg.com

Christian Odendahl @codendahl.bsky.social · 4d

Sehr schön. Das bringt uns dem 5. Champions League Platz für nächste Saison näher. Wichtig für den #effzeh

Christian Odendahl @codendahl.bsky.social · 4d

Our cover this week.
economist.com/leaders/2025...

Economist cover on the relationship recession

Christian Odendahl @codendahl.bsky.social · 4d

Fair and square is a great title for it!

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