Christian Odendahl
@codendahl.bsky.social
European economics editor @TheEconomist. London via Berlin, Stockholm and Cologne. Have no plans to write a book.
Hahaha, no. But I was great moral support. 😀
November 10, 2025 at 5:51 PM
Hahaha, no. But I was great moral support. 😀
Sorry! Yes, sarcasm.
November 10, 2025 at 5:49 PM
Sorry! Yes, sarcasm.
If you want to discuss this further, ask @johnspringford.bsky.social, who has done the most consistent cost-of-Brexit work out there over the years. I know because I was sitting at the desk next to him for some of that time.
November 10, 2025 at 5:47 PM
If you want to discuss this further, ask @johnspringford.bsky.social, who has done the most consistent cost-of-Brexit work out there over the years. I know because I was sitting at the desk next to him for some of that time.
Jajaja, I hear you say. Synthetic control etc.
To which I respond. 1) that is still a good, sophisticated before-after method with robustness checks and everything, and 2) they also do firm-level data diff-in-diff, and 3) they discuss the merits of both methods and compare.
To which I respond. 1) that is still a good, sophisticated before-after method with robustness checks and everything, and 2) they also do firm-level data diff-in-diff, and 3) they discuss the merits of both methods and compare.
November 10, 2025 at 5:46 PM
Jajaja, I hear you say. Synthetic control etc.
To which I respond. 1) that is still a good, sophisticated before-after method with robustness checks and everything, and 2) they also do firm-level data diff-in-diff, and 3) they discuss the merits of both methods and compare.
To which I respond. 1) that is still a good, sophisticated before-after method with robustness checks and everything, and 2) they also do firm-level data diff-in-diff, and 3) they discuss the merits of both methods and compare.
Quite like him, who doesn't? But I am not sure the big states would hand him the top job. He is probably in the running for the exec board, though.
November 10, 2025 at 5:31 PM
Quite like him, who doesn't? But I am not sure the big states would hand him the top job. He is probably in the running for the exec board, though.
But after an Italian and a French head of the #ECB, the argument for a northern one is strong. Which is why Klaas #Knot is probably the best candidate, he knows his stuff, is outspoken, very experienced and has the political nous to steer the ECB through potentially quite turbulent times.
November 10, 2025 at 5:26 PM
On second thought, it shouldn't be a German. The ECB will play an increasingly political role -- esp if France or others are governed by hard-right parties ( cf @sophiepedder.bsky.social's piece on Bardella and the ECB a.o. www.economist.com/europe/2025/...). We don't need a euro crisis 2.0.
November 10, 2025 at 5:23 PM
On second thought, it shouldn't be a German. The ECB will play an increasingly political role -- esp if France or others are governed by hard-right parties ( cf @sophiepedder.bsky.social's piece on Bardella and the ECB a.o. www.economist.com/europe/2025/...). We don't need a euro crisis 2.0.
No sure, you do that. That's fine. The long-term expected return is higher than the bond yield, that's all we need.
November 7, 2025 at 4:36 PM
No sure, you do that. That's fine. The long-term expected return is higher than the bond yield, that's all we need.
As indeed I have argued in The Economist in February 2024. www.economist.com/leaders/2024...
How to put Russia’s frozen assets to work for Ukraine
Exploit them to the full, but legally
www.economist.com
November 7, 2025 at 4:07 PM
As indeed I have argued in The Economist in February 2024. www.economist.com/leaders/2024...
In other words, the whole legal and political hassle of taking the money from Euroclear (via an EU bond), and handing the money to Ukraine could be avoided by just issuing an EU bond, handing *that* money to Ukraine, and servicing it from the returns on Euroclear's assets.
November 7, 2025 at 4:04 PM
In other words, the whole legal and political hassle of taking the money from Euroclear (via an EU bond), and handing the money to Ukraine could be avoided by just issuing an EU bond, handing *that* money to Ukraine, and servicing it from the returns on Euroclear's assets.
Just to compare this to the Norwegian oil fund.
Return last 10 years: 7.4%
last 5 years: 9.4%
last 12 months: 10.12%
Since 1998: 6.4%
Return last 10 years: 7.4%
last 5 years: 9.4%
last 12 months: 10.12%
Since 1998: 6.4%
November 7, 2025 at 4:02 PM
Just to compare this to the Norwegian oil fund.
Return last 10 years: 7.4%
last 5 years: 9.4%
last 12 months: 10.12%
Since 1998: 6.4%
Return last 10 years: 7.4%
last 5 years: 9.4%
last 12 months: 10.12%
Since 1998: 6.4%