Steven Bosworth
@sjbeconobot.bsky.social
Associate Professor of Economics, University of Reading
He/him, autistic
He/him, autistic
Pinned
Steven Bosworth
@sjbeconobot.bsky.social
· Nov 20
docs.iza.org
I am very pleased to announce that long-running work with @mardelgiu.bsky.social, When Matthew met Larry: Explaining the persistence of gender underrepresentation in high status organizations is now available as an IZA Working Paper: docs.iza.org/dp17460.pdf
Help my country is in a Condorcet cycle and can’t get out
January 13, 2026 at 9:00 PM
Help my country is in a Condorcet cycle and can’t get out
Ok I wanna do this just for pizza.
Over-rated: Impossible
Under-rated (globally): New York style
Under-rated (US specifically): Roman style
Under-rated (🇺🇸&🌐): Chicago style
Accurately rated: Neapolitan style (laudatory), St Louis style (derogatory)
Over-rated: Impossible
Under-rated (globally): New York style
Under-rated (US specifically): Roman style
Under-rated (🇺🇸&🌐): Chicago style
Accurately rated: Neapolitan style (laudatory), St Louis style (derogatory)
Time to start a bluesky Christmas fight: Most over-rated and under-rated cuisine?
For me:
Over-rated: French
Under-rated (globally): Mexican
Under-rated (US specifically): Indonesian
For me:
Over-rated: French
Under-rated (globally): Mexican
Under-rated (US specifically): Indonesian
December 24, 2025 at 7:08 PM
Ok I wanna do this just for pizza.
Over-rated: Impossible
Under-rated (globally): New York style
Under-rated (US specifically): Roman style
Under-rated (🇺🇸&🌐): Chicago style
Accurately rated: Neapolitan style (laudatory), St Louis style (derogatory)
Over-rated: Impossible
Under-rated (globally): New York style
Under-rated (US specifically): Roman style
Under-rated (🇺🇸&🌐): Chicago style
Accurately rated: Neapolitan style (laudatory), St Louis style (derogatory)
What share of the present-day labour force would be necessary to produce the world GDP of 1800? 10% doesn’t sound like a bad guess.
What I want to know is: how far is unsatisfactorily boring is this stuff going to get us?
What happens when we find out that like 90% of the GDP is fucking rote as stuff a non-reasoning model can memorize how to handle?
It's still a dumb/clever hunk of sand, but we're also basically not needed?
What happens when we find out that like 90% of the GDP is fucking rote as stuff a non-reasoning model can memorize how to handle?
It's still a dumb/clever hunk of sand, but we're also basically not needed?
December 21, 2025 at 9:15 AM
What share of the present-day labour force would be necessary to produce the world GDP of 1800? 10% doesn’t sound like a bad guess.
Reposted by Steven Bosworth
This is far from over, but I tend to agree. Authoritarian attempts are prototypical cases of multiple equilibria: when the key actors believe that it will succeed, they are more likely to join, which makes it more likely to succeed. When that belief crumbles, the probability of success vanishes...
In the last few weeks, I’ve become increasingly convinced that Trump and his regime are totally cooked.
They can only stay in power by stealing elections—but they can only do that if enough people are willing to help them.
They’re in a downward spiral and can’t pull themselves out of it.
They can only stay in power by stealing elections—but they can only do that if enough people are willing to help them.
They’re in a downward spiral and can’t pull themselves out of it.
December 12, 2025 at 3:20 PM
This is far from over, but I tend to agree. Authoritarian attempts are prototypical cases of multiple equilibria: when the key actors believe that it will succeed, they are more likely to join, which makes it more likely to succeed. When that belief crumbles, the probability of success vanishes...
Remember when Larry Summers made the lazy inference that fewer women in science means they must be less able? @mardelgiu.bsky.social and I wrote a paper exploring the consequences of this lazy inference for occupational segregation which we term the "Larry effect:" www.iza.org/publications...
November 17, 2025 at 10:07 AM
Remember when Larry Summers made the lazy inference that fewer women in science means they must be less able? @mardelgiu.bsky.social and I wrote a paper exploring the consequences of this lazy inference for occupational segregation which we term the "Larry effect:" www.iza.org/publications...
Reposted by Steven Bosworth
Imagine you time travel back to 1847 and you find the left response to industrialization is a) machines will never be as good as human weavers or b) we need to copyright loom patterns or c) it’s a speculative bubble.
You’d say “Y’all. Not helping. What you need is obviously a labor movement.”
You’d say “Y’all. Not helping. What you need is obviously a labor movement.”
November 1, 2025 at 11:27 PM
Imagine you time travel back to 1847 and you find the left response to industrialization is a) machines will never be as good as human weavers or b) we need to copyright loom patterns or c) it’s a speculative bubble.
You’d say “Y’all. Not helping. What you need is obviously a labor movement.”
You’d say “Y’all. Not helping. What you need is obviously a labor movement.”
The lump of consumption fallacy
one of the most deeply infuriating aspects of american politics is close to half of americans would love if 20% of the country starved to death
October 27, 2025 at 8:42 PM
The lump of consumption fallacy
Economists think of ourselves as social scientists. It’s other social scientists who seem to think we are STEM, or think that we think of ourselves as STEM. We also do cite other socsci. fields, though fwiw there is a clear asymmetry in feelings of not being cited appropriately.
BREAKING: economist discovers “second shift,” a concept coined by sociologists almost 50 years ago; gives it new, stupider, and less explicitly labor-oriented name
October 27, 2025 at 7:26 PM
Economists think of ourselves as social scientists. It’s other social scientists who seem to think we are STEM, or think that we think of ourselves as STEM. We also do cite other socsci. fields, though fwiw there is a clear asymmetry in feelings of not being cited appropriately.
If I understand correctly, Senate R’s have a trilemma between a) not succeeding in taking away health insurance from the working poor, b) getting rid of the filibuster, or c) letting Trump nuke Article 1 of the constitution and are going to choose c)
October 15, 2025 at 7:57 AM
If I understand correctly, Senate R’s have a trilemma between a) not succeeding in taking away health insurance from the working poor, b) getting rid of the filibuster, or c) letting Trump nuke Article 1 of the constitution and are going to choose c)
An outsider may be forgiven for assuming the British love rules. They hate them in fact. But they also hate each other so it cancels out. Revealed preference only gets one so far..
do the british just have a fetish for making things crimes
Attlee taught Labour to walk, now he watches on as they fly
October 12, 2025 at 3:50 PM
An outsider may be forgiven for assuming the British love rules. They hate them in fact. But they also hate each other so it cancels out. Revealed preference only gets one so far..
Anyways consultants are not paid because they possess useful advice. They are hired to stand behind what the buyer wants to do and accept blame / verify good money was paid for it.
Weirdly lamentable that ai won’t after all be destroying jobs in the consulting industry.
October 8, 2025 at 7:20 AM
Anyways consultants are not paid because they possess useful advice. They are hired to stand behind what the buyer wants to do and accept blame / verify good money was paid for it.
Reposted by Steven Bosworth
A friendly reminder as Nobel season approaches, the Nobel Prizes are not real Sveriges Riksbank Prizes in Memory of Alfred Nobel.
September 29, 2025 at 7:18 PM
A friendly reminder as Nobel season approaches, the Nobel Prizes are not real Sveriges Riksbank Prizes in Memory of Alfred Nobel.
Reposted by Steven Bosworth
@robfordmancs.bsky.social argues that the unpopularity of Reform's proposals offer the government an opportunity - but I'd add that they will squander that if they introduce what just looks like a watered-down version of those proposals.
September 25, 2025 at 10:10 AM
@robfordmancs.bsky.social argues that the unpopularity of Reform's proposals offer the government an opportunity - but I'd add that they will squander that if they introduce what just looks like a watered-down version of those proposals.
Reposted by Steven Bosworth
neurodiversity is Good Actually. just want to say that
September 22, 2025 at 7:10 PM
neurodiversity is Good Actually. just want to say that
A policy truly befitting a reality TV politician: Let’s just periodically vote people off the island.
Reform are now coming after people with permanent residency. It'll be citizens next. No one is safe from authoritarian governments.
September 22, 2025 at 8:03 AM
A policy truly befitting a reality TV politician: Let’s just periodically vote people off the island.
This guy, of all people, is the voice of reason about immigration in UK politics.
I have to speak my truth: you can't call Zack Polanski "Hypnoboobs"
Calling him "Hypnotits" is funny because it's a reference to the fact that he once claimed hypnosis can make breasts bigger and, crucially, it sounds like "hypnosis"
"Hypnoboobs" does not sound like it, it doesn't work
Thank you
Calling him "Hypnotits" is funny because it's a reference to the fact that he once claimed hypnosis can make breasts bigger and, crucially, it sounds like "hypnosis"
"Hypnoboobs" does not sound like it, it doesn't work
Thank you
September 19, 2025 at 4:21 PM
This guy, of all people, is the voice of reason about immigration in UK politics.
Reposted by Steven Bosworth
Excellent point made in this article - "The government can, at any point, amend the 2010 Equality Act to clarify it. This could be as simple as passing a revised version with a single sentence added stating that its gender definitions include trans people."
www.liberalcurrents.com/britains-bat...
www.liberalcurrents.com/britains-bat...
Britain’s Bathroom Ban
The UK has gone from a bathroom ban being unthinkable to a Labour government implementing an extraordinarily authoritarian one—without a vote.
www.liberalcurrents.com
September 17, 2025 at 3:25 PM
Excellent point made in this article - "The government can, at any point, amend the 2010 Equality Act to clarify it. This could be as simple as passing a revised version with a single sentence added stating that its gender definitions include trans people."
www.liberalcurrents.com/britains-bat...
www.liberalcurrents.com/britains-bat...
One lesson to draw from Brexit is that Theresa May was not rewarded for delivering the most reasonable version of the bad idea she thought the British people wanted.
My most centrist dad take is that most governing politicians deserve sympathy because almost every policy that's actually any good for the country is unpopular, and almost every popular policy is probably bad.
Johnson's Brexit approach was far worse than Chequers IMHO but 20ppts more popular 1/
Johnson's Brexit approach was far worse than Chequers IMHO but 20ppts more popular 1/
September 16, 2025 at 3:57 PM
One lesson to draw from Brexit is that Theresa May was not rewarded for delivering the most reasonable version of the bad idea she thought the British people wanted.
In knowing we are each of us mad but altogether sound but in doing we are each of us sound but altogether mad (Condorcet, Arrow). Is this how AI can know everything and still not be able to do anything?
September 16, 2025 at 7:31 AM
In knowing we are each of us mad but altogether sound but in doing we are each of us sound but altogether mad (Condorcet, Arrow). Is this how AI can know everything and still not be able to do anything?
Reposted by Steven Bosworth
"I/we am/are better than this" is fine as an aspirational statement. it is better to have good aspirations than bad ones.
September 10, 2025 at 9:00 PM
"I/we am/are better than this" is fine as an aspirational statement. it is better to have good aspirations than bad ones.
Me, delegating on the basis of what I want to hear: hahaha f yeah yes!
Me, experiencing the decisions made by an entity selected on this basis: wtf
Me, experiencing the decisions made by an entity selected on this basis: wtf
September 10, 2025 at 7:56 AM
Me, delegating on the basis of what I want to hear: hahaha f yeah yes!
Me, experiencing the decisions made by an entity selected on this basis: wtf
Me, experiencing the decisions made by an entity selected on this basis: wtf
RIP to the 4th amendment
The best way to summarize this legal rule is "White people are allowed to use race to discriminate against nonwhite people"
SCOTUS: considering race as one factor in a college applicant's file is blatantly unconstitutional
ALSO SCOTUS: considering race as one factor in targeting whom to detain and deport is cool cool cool
ALSO SCOTUS: considering race as one factor in targeting whom to detain and deport is cool cool cool
September 9, 2025 at 6:50 AM
RIP to the 4th amendment
The Johnson government did this in the UK in 2021 and it totally worked to detoxify the debate around immigration. People’s single and totally genuine concern about it was finally addressed! /s
You can try polling this but I am genuinely skeptical that "higher levels of migration but with no access to the welfare state" gets through to NatCons.
September 6, 2025 at 9:21 AM
The Johnson government did this in the UK in 2021 and it totally worked to detoxify the debate around immigration. People’s single and totally genuine concern about it was finally addressed! /s
Reposted by Steven Bosworth
It is my sincerest hope that the invention of the LLM will sever our identification of humanity/sentience/intelligence with the ability to produce language. Language is only a shadow of humanity, and even a cardboard cutout can have a shadow.
current theory: LLMs exist in a cognitive uncanny valley. we are incapable of seeing them as anything other than weird humans. they get ranked up/down in our esteem the way a human would be. that they are a totally different thing, with totally different problems, is impossible to integrate
and this seems like a legitimate cognitive problem. somehow the exact niche in the cognitive uncanny valley they fall into is just impossible for us to process. nothing else has ever existed that looks anything like this before! it's a person. it's an oracle of truth? maybe it's a book. hmmm
September 4, 2025 at 6:16 AM
It is my sincerest hope that the invention of the LLM will sever our identification of humanity/sentience/intelligence with the ability to produce language. Language is only a shadow of humanity, and even a cardboard cutout can have a shadow.