R. Saravanan
@sarava.net
Climate scientist, Professor, and Dept. Head at Texas A&M University.
Author: ClimateDemon.com Now-and-then-blogger: https://Metamodel.blog Code: https://github.com/mitotic Bluesky-client: https://skylimit.dev
More: https://r.saravanan.us/about
Author: ClimateDemon.com Now-and-then-blogger: https://Metamodel.blog Code: https://github.com/mitotic Bluesky-client: https://skylimit.dev
More: https://r.saravanan.us/about
Pinned
R. Saravanan
@sarava.net
· 4d
A Climate Supercomputer Is Getting New Bosses. It’s Not Clear Who.
www.nytimes.com
The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Colorado plays a linchpin role in weather and climate research. Weather and climate research are inseparable—climate is essentially the long-term statistics of weather. Unfortunately, the first step to dismantle NCAR seems to be underway...
Reposted by R. Saravanan
The American Academy of Actuaries warns that dismantling NCAR would degrade the catastrophe models insurers depend on to price climate risk—driving up premiums and threatening coverage availability nationwide.
"Uncertainty carries a positive cost."
www.riskmarketnews.com/trumps-clima...
"Uncertainty carries a positive cost."
www.riskmarketnews.com/trumps-clima...
Trump's Climate Supercomputer Plans Threaten US Insurance Market: Actuaries
A new letter from the American Academy of Actuaries draws a direct line between the planned dismantling of NCAR and higher homeowners insurance costs for US consumers.
www.riskmarketnews.com
February 16, 2026 at 3:49 PM
The American Academy of Actuaries warns that dismantling NCAR would degrade the catastrophe models insurers depend on to price climate risk—driving up premiums and threatening coverage availability nationwide.
"Uncertainty carries a positive cost."
www.riskmarketnews.com/trumps-clima...
"Uncertainty carries a positive cost."
www.riskmarketnews.com/trumps-clima...
Reposted by R. Saravanan
This paper is a good example of how to carefully analyze tipping systems. (That many phenomena often lumped together as singular tipping systems are actually composites is probably a common characteristic.)
Track carefully the extent to which this precision gets flattened in mass and social media.
Track carefully the extent to which this precision gets flattened in mass and social media.
🔔🚨 New Publication Alert!
Research has shown that the Antarctic Ice Sheet is a climate tipping element.
We found: it’s not one — it’s many.
📄 Paper (open access): www.nature.com/articles/s41...
📢 Press release: www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/late...
Tread below 🧵👇
Research has shown that the Antarctic Ice Sheet is a climate tipping element.
We found: it’s not one — it’s many.
📄 Paper (open access): www.nature.com/articles/s41...
📢 Press release: www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/late...
Tread below 🧵👇
February 16, 2026 at 2:06 PM
This paper is a good example of how to carefully analyze tipping systems. (That many phenomena often lumped together as singular tipping systems are actually composites is probably a common characteristic.)
Track carefully the extent to which this precision gets flattened in mass and social media.
Track carefully the extent to which this precision gets flattened in mass and social media.
Reposted by R. Saravanan
Vaccines have helped to control many diseases that caused widespread suffering in the past and continue to do so to this day. Professor of Immunology Charles Bangham FRS explains why we know vaccines work and why they are so effective: https://royalsociety.org/blog/2021/01/why-we-know-vaccines-work/
February 16, 2026 at 12:19 PM
Vaccines have helped to control many diseases that caused widespread suffering in the past and continue to do so to this day. Professor of Immunology Charles Bangham FRS explains why we know vaccines work and why they are so effective: https://royalsociety.org/blog/2021/01/why-we-know-vaccines-work/
The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Colorado plays a linchpin role in weather and climate research. Weather and climate research are inseparable—climate is essentially the long-term statistics of weather. Unfortunately, the first step to dismantle NCAR seems to be underway...
A Climate Supercomputer Is Getting New Bosses. It’s Not Clear Who.
www.nytimes.com
February 14, 2026 at 1:15 AM
The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Colorado plays a linchpin role in weather and climate research. Weather and climate research are inseparable—climate is essentially the long-term statistics of weather. Unfortunately, the first step to dismantle NCAR seems to be underway...
Reposted by R. Saravanan
I love writing about geeky science that has real-world implications. In this case, a new NOAA index does a more solid job of classifying El Niño and La Niña—and that helps explain some recent puzzling events. @climateconnections.bsky.social
yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/02/a-ne...
yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/02/a-ne...
A new and better way to keep tabs on El Niño and La Niña » Yale Climate Connections
Developed in response to a warming world, NOAA’s revised scale more precisely identifies which episodes are likely to have the biggest impacts.
yaleclimateconnections.org
February 5, 2026 at 6:06 PM
I love writing about geeky science that has real-world implications. In this case, a new NOAA index does a more solid job of classifying El Niño and La Niña—and that helps explain some recent puzzling events. @climateconnections.bsky.social
yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/02/a-ne...
yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/02/a-ne...
Reposted by R. Saravanan
Terrible day for many amazing, hard-working, intelligent journalists at the Washington Post. I'm still here and trying to figure out how to best support my colleagues who have lost their jobs.
If you feel able to share or contribute, please do:
www.gofundme.com/f/standing-t...
If you feel able to share or contribute, please do:
www.gofundme.com/f/standing-t...
Donate to Washington Post 2026 layoff fund, organized by Rachel Siegel
On Wednesday, Feb. 4, 2026, The Washington Post laid off hundreds of journalists. We ar… Rachel Siegel needs your support for Washington Post 2026 layoff fund
www.gofundme.com
February 4, 2026 at 4:37 PM
Terrible day for many amazing, hard-working, intelligent journalists at the Washington Post. I'm still here and trying to figure out how to best support my colleagues who have lost their jobs.
If you feel able to share or contribute, please do:
www.gofundme.com/f/standing-t...
If you feel able to share or contribute, please do:
www.gofundme.com/f/standing-t...
Reposted by R. Saravanan
At Baylor for a climate workshop ANTHRO HOSTS with the anthropology department. First up is my colleague John Nielsen-Gammon.
February 4, 2026 at 4:04 PM
At Baylor for a climate workshop ANTHRO HOSTS with the anthropology department. First up is my colleague John Nielsen-Gammon.
Reposted by R. Saravanan
Must be nice to be wrong 70% of the time and still get fed
February 3, 2026 at 3:08 AM
Must be nice to be wrong 70% of the time and still get fed
Reposted by R. Saravanan
Is climate change responsible for increasingly frequent or severe cold events?
The evidence suggests it is not.
Instead, the impact of climate change is warmer winters and less severe cold events.
@hausfath.bsky.social has a great post on The Climate Brink talking about this.
The evidence suggests it is not.
Instead, the impact of climate change is warmer winters and less severe cold events.
@hausfath.bsky.social has a great post on The Climate Brink talking about this.
Fact check: Climate change is not making extreme cold more common
Sometimes it just gets cold
substack.com
February 2, 2026 at 5:02 PM
Is climate change responsible for increasingly frequent or severe cold events?
The evidence suggests it is not.
Instead, the impact of climate change is warmer winters and less severe cold events.
@hausfath.bsky.social has a great post on The Climate Brink talking about this.
The evidence suggests it is not.
Instead, the impact of climate change is warmer winters and less severe cold events.
@hausfath.bsky.social has a great post on The Climate Brink talking about this.
Reposted by R. Saravanan
this article about Texas A&M is a tour de force about what's happening on campus. Incredibly well written and sharply on point.
www.texasmonthly.com/news-politic...
www.texasmonthly.com/news-politic...
What’s the Matter With Texas A&M?
Five presidents in five years. Firings of “woke” professors. Crackdowns on Plato. Inside state leaders’ efforts to remake a great university.
www.texasmonthly.com
February 1, 2026 at 8:04 PM
this article about Texas A&M is a tour de force about what's happening on campus. Incredibly well written and sharply on point.
www.texasmonthly.com/news-politic...
www.texasmonthly.com/news-politic...
Reposted by R. Saravanan
I've seen several Big Climate Accounts™ post about how the recent winter storm was made worse by climate change. It's a convenient narrative.
s
But what is "worse"? Colder temperatures? More snow? More freezing rain? Is there any primary literature supporting the idea of worse snowstorms?
1/
s
But what is "worse"? Colder temperatures? More snow? More freezing rain? Is there any primary literature supporting the idea of worse snowstorms?
1/
January 31, 2026 at 3:29 AM
I've seen several Big Climate Accounts™ post about how the recent winter storm was made worse by climate change. It's a convenient narrative.
s
But what is "worse"? Colder temperatures? More snow? More freezing rain? Is there any primary literature supporting the idea of worse snowstorms?
1/
s
But what is "worse"? Colder temperatures? More snow? More freezing rain? Is there any primary literature supporting the idea of worse snowstorms?
1/
Reposted by R. Saravanan
The dissolution of NCAR remains a very real possibility, as discussed at a town-hall meeting this week at #AMS2026. @climateconnections.bsky.social
yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/01/the-...
yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/01/the-...
The future of NCAR remains highly uncertain » Yale Climate Connections
Members of the American Meteorological Society were briefed Wednesday about ongoing developments on the future of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which the White House has said it will b...
yaleclimateconnections.org
January 30, 2026 at 6:48 PM
The dissolution of NCAR remains a very real possibility, as discussed at a town-hall meeting this week at #AMS2026. @climateconnections.bsky.social
yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/01/the-...
yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/01/the-...
Reposted by R. Saravanan
Reposted by R. Saravanan
Breaking: POTUS signs fed funding bill, while National Science Foundation issues "Dear Colleague" letter requesting proposals for operating restructured NCAR weather infrastructure, implying administration continuing to move forward with plans to dismantle research facility. tinyurl.com/yc5pny9n
Breaking: POTUS signs federal science funding budget bill, and National Science Foundation issues call for NCAR "restructuring" proposals
As major winter storm starts its days of significant impacts
tinyurl.com
January 24, 2026 at 1:05 AM
Breaking: POTUS signs fed funding bill, while National Science Foundation issues "Dear Colleague" letter requesting proposals for operating restructured NCAR weather infrastructure, implying administration continuing to move forward with plans to dismantle research facility. tinyurl.com/yc5pny9n
Reposted by R. Saravanan
Attention folks in the weather, climate, disaster, wildfire, and Earth science communities: NSF has just published a new "Dear Colleague" letter inviting feedback (by Mar 13) on the proposal to dismantle the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). www.nsf.gov/funding/...
January 23, 2026 at 9:57 PM
Attention folks in the weather, climate, disaster, wildfire, and Earth science communities: NSF has just published a new "Dear Colleague" letter inviting feedback (by Mar 13) on the proposal to dismantle the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). www.nsf.gov/funding/...
Howdy Aggies (and friends of Aggies)!
The Texas A&M Department of Atmospheric Sciences will be marking the 60th anniversary of its establishment at the 7pm Tuesday (Jan. 27) reception during the AMS Annual Meeting in Hilton Americas-Houston.
Come join us!
The Texas A&M Department of Atmospheric Sciences will be marking the 60th anniversary of its establishment at the 7pm Tuesday (Jan. 27) reception during the AMS Annual Meeting in Hilton Americas-Houston.
Come join us!
January 22, 2026 at 5:24 PM
Howdy Aggies (and friends of Aggies)!
The Texas A&M Department of Atmospheric Sciences will be marking the 60th anniversary of its establishment at the 7pm Tuesday (Jan. 27) reception during the AMS Annual Meeting in Hilton Americas-Houston.
Come join us!
The Texas A&M Department of Atmospheric Sciences will be marking the 60th anniversary of its establishment at the 7pm Tuesday (Jan. 27) reception during the AMS Annual Meeting in Hilton Americas-Houston.
Come join us!
Reposted by R. Saravanan
New on AMS Headlines 🗞️: Recent disastrous floods triggered by extreme rainfall highlight the need to scale up early actions.
An article in #BulletinAMS highlights the potential of forecasts and warning thresholds to trigger action by decision-makers: https://bit.ly/4b4FrxB
An article in #BulletinAMS highlights the potential of forecasts and warning thresholds to trigger action by decision-makers: https://bit.ly/4b4FrxB
From Early Warning to Early Action
Key messages from “The Value of Precipitation Forecasts to Anticipate Floods,” by Tim Busker (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam), Bart van den Hurk, Hans de Moel, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts.
bit.ly
January 17, 2026 at 6:56 PM
New on AMS Headlines 🗞️: Recent disastrous floods triggered by extreme rainfall highlight the need to scale up early actions.
An article in #BulletinAMS highlights the potential of forecasts and warning thresholds to trigger action by decision-makers: https://bit.ly/4b4FrxB
An article in #BulletinAMS highlights the potential of forecasts and warning thresholds to trigger action by decision-makers: https://bit.ly/4b4FrxB
Reposted by R. Saravanan
Preprint out today in ESDD.
SRM's biggest risk is us.
'Peak-shaving' is a best-case scenario, with strong governance and international cooperation.
We propose a framework for messier geoengineering futures, which look more like, you know, the news. /1
egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...
SRM's biggest risk is us.
'Peak-shaving' is a best-case scenario, with strong governance and international cooperation.
We propose a framework for messier geoengineering futures, which look more like, you know, the news. /1
egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...
Robust assessment of Solar Radiation Modification risks and uncertainties must include shocks and societal feedbacks
Abstract. Conventional climate scenarios omit fast-timescale human-system dynamics like policy rollback or economic shocks. The climate system's slow response to GHG emissions allows these `fast' ter...
egusphere.copernicus.org
January 15, 2026 at 12:54 PM
Preprint out today in ESDD.
SRM's biggest risk is us.
'Peak-shaving' is a best-case scenario, with strong governance and international cooperation.
We propose a framework for messier geoengineering futures, which look more like, you know, the news. /1
egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...
SRM's biggest risk is us.
'Peak-shaving' is a best-case scenario, with strong governance and international cooperation.
We propose a framework for messier geoengineering futures, which look more like, you know, the news. /1
egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...
Reposted by R. Saravanan
🚨 Publication alert! Very happy to see our paper "Unlocking the benefits of transparent and reusable science for climate risk management" out in PNAS today. With @crispapoll.bsky.social @jdossgollin.bsky.social @bobkopp.net and many others.
www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
January 14, 2026 at 5:10 PM
🚨 Publication alert! Very happy to see our paper "Unlocking the benefits of transparent and reusable science for climate risk management" out in PNAS today. With @crispapoll.bsky.social @jdossgollin.bsky.social @bobkopp.net and many others.
www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
Reposted by R. Saravanan
Most economists disagree with extreme voices on debates about climate risks, and yet we keep providing fuel to both sides. This article tries to explain why.
www.theatlantic.com/science/2026...
www.theatlantic.com/science/2026...
The Climate Question That Economists Cannot Answer
Models can predict catastrophic or modest damages from climate change, but not which of these futures is coming.
www.theatlantic.com
January 14, 2026 at 5:38 PM
Most economists disagree with extreme voices on debates about climate risks, and yet we keep providing fuel to both sides. This article tries to explain why.
www.theatlantic.com/science/2026...
www.theatlantic.com/science/2026...
Reposted by R. Saravanan
Convection ≠ Overturning: Why Labrador Sea convection doesn’t drive the AMOC: A simple explanation 🌊🧪 ocean2climate.org/2026/01/10/w...
Why Labrador Sea Convection Doesn’t Drive The AMOC: A Simple Explanation
The oceanography community is deeply engaged in a debate about how much weight the Labrador Sea actually carries in maintaining the Atlantic Overturning Circulation (AMOC) system. According to the …
ocean2climate.org
January 10, 2026 at 5:36 PM
Convection ≠ Overturning: Why Labrador Sea convection doesn’t drive the AMOC: A simple explanation 🌊🧪 ocean2climate.org/2026/01/10/w...
Reposted by R. Saravanan
Leaving the IPCC and UNFCCC is Bad for the United States
Mutilateralism matters for normal Americans
rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/leaving-th...
Mutilateralism matters for normal Americans
rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/leaving-th...
Leaving the IPCC and UNFCCC is Bad for the United States
Mutilateralism matters for normal Americans
rogerpielkejr.substack.com
January 8, 2026 at 2:09 PM
Leaving the IPCC and UNFCCC is Bad for the United States
Mutilateralism matters for normal Americans
rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/leaving-th...
Mutilateralism matters for normal Americans
rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/leaving-th...
Reposted by R. Saravanan
Congress appears to have a bipartisan budget plan that would reject most of the Trump Administration's desired cuts to federal atmospheric science agencies and programs. Details on what Congress is planning for NOAA, NASA and NSF in 2026 - and will OMB follow through? tinyurl.com/bddutn9m
Bipartisan budget plan rejects most of the administration's desired cuts for major federal earth and atmospheric science agencies
NOAA Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research continues to be funded; Congress restates support of key satellite programs and mandates no more than 5% cuts to NSF science areas
tinyurl.com
January 6, 2026 at 9:35 PM
Congress appears to have a bipartisan budget plan that would reject most of the Trump Administration's desired cuts to federal atmospheric science agencies and programs. Details on what Congress is planning for NOAA, NASA and NSF in 2026 - and will OMB follow through? tinyurl.com/bddutn9m
Reposted by R. Saravanan
Unbelievable. The National Weather Service issued a wind warning supported by a hazard map showing places that **do not exist***.
Wait a minute...why is NWS throwing out genAI generated slop on their socials?
This is a horrible look and doesn't help keep people safe or aware of the forecast.
This is a horrible look and doesn't help keep people safe or aware of the forecast.
January 5, 2026 at 3:59 PM
Unbelievable. The National Weather Service issued a wind warning supported by a hazard map showing places that **do not exist***.