R. Saravanan
@sarava.net
Climate scientist, Professor, and Dept Head at Texas A&M University. Author: ClimateDemon.com Now-and-then-blogger: https://Metamodel.blog Bio: https://r.saravanan.us/about
Pinned
R. Saravanan
@sarava.net
· May 28
I'll be speaking tomorrow, Thurs., May 29th, at 9:30AM Eastern Time in the Weather & Climate Livestream
www.youtube.com/@wclivestream
Topic: Using climate models to predict solar and wind power droughts, i.e., periods when it is Dark & Still
(agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....)
www.youtube.com/@wclivestream
Topic: Using climate models to predict solar and wind power droughts, i.e., periods when it is Dark & Still
(agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....)
Reposted by R. Saravanan
Have you wondered about trends & ENSO variability in Atlantic TC intensity/intensification? @scamargo.bsky.social and I did.
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
journals.ametsoc.org
November 5, 2025 at 7:01 PM
Have you wondered about trends & ENSO variability in Atlantic TC intensity/intensification? @scamargo.bsky.social and I did.
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
Reposted by R. Saravanan
In this article and the broader discourse about a possible “cat 6,” I’m fascinated by the dichotomy between the climate-centric scientists who are largely in favor of a cat-6 and the tropical cyclone-centric scientists who largely aren’t. (1/3)
As climate change super-sizes our storms, should our categories reflect that?
Thoughtful comments and discussion (all too rare today) from @weatherprof.bsky.social, @michaelemann.bsky.social, myself and others.
Check it out and LMK - what do YOU think?
Thoughtful comments and discussion (all too rare today) from @weatherprof.bsky.social, @michaelemann.bsky.social, myself and others.
Check it out and LMK - what do YOU think?
Category 6 is the new hurricane normal, say scientists
Human-caused climate change is making major hurricanes like Melissa much stronger, faster and ultimately more life-threatening
www.independent.co.uk
November 3, 2025 at 1:28 AM
In this article and the broader discourse about a possible “cat 6,” I’m fascinated by the dichotomy between the climate-centric scientists who are largely in favor of a cat-6 and the tropical cyclone-centric scientists who largely aren’t. (1/3)
Reposted by R. Saravanan
Here’s something really graphic for Halloween:
October 31, 2025 at 3:40 PM
Here’s something really graphic for Halloween:
Reposted by R. Saravanan
This 150M cat bond for Jamaica has a trigger design that uses hurricane central pressure and location.
That data is being collected by NOAA Hurricane Hunters who are currently working without pay.
www.artemis.bm/news/jamaica...
That data is being collected by NOAA Hurricane Hunters who are currently working without pay.
www.artemis.bm/news/jamaica...
October 27, 2025 at 4:26 PM
This 150M cat bond for Jamaica has a trigger design that uses hurricane central pressure and location.
That data is being collected by NOAA Hurricane Hunters who are currently working without pay.
www.artemis.bm/news/jamaica...
That data is being collected by NOAA Hurricane Hunters who are currently working without pay.
www.artemis.bm/news/jamaica...
Reposted by R. Saravanan
Absolutely fantastic study comparing anonymized outputs of climate analytics models.
Everyone loves to bag on flood (rightly so), but can we talk about how the spread here is "30mph breeze to Cat 5 hurricane" www.fca.org.uk/publication/... HT @ruarirhodes.bsky.social
Everyone loves to bag on flood (rightly so), but can we talk about how the spread here is "30mph breeze to Cat 5 hurricane" www.fca.org.uk/publication/... HT @ruarirhodes.bsky.social
October 24, 2025 at 6:09 PM
Absolutely fantastic study comparing anonymized outputs of climate analytics models.
Everyone loves to bag on flood (rightly so), but can we talk about how the spread here is "30mph breeze to Cat 5 hurricane" www.fca.org.uk/publication/... HT @ruarirhodes.bsky.social
Everyone loves to bag on flood (rightly so), but can we talk about how the spread here is "30mph breeze to Cat 5 hurricane" www.fca.org.uk/publication/... HT @ruarirhodes.bsky.social
Reposted by R. Saravanan
when giving a talk at Texas A&M, always start your talk with Howdy!
October 23, 2025 at 2:12 PM
when giving a talk at Texas A&M, always start your talk with Howdy!
Reposted by R. Saravanan
How is the Google DeepMind model doing so far this Atlantic hurricane season?
My *preliminary* homogeneous verification shows that the DeepMind ensemble mean "GDMN" is dominating in both track and intensity, beating the revered "HCCA" consensus and the NHC ("OFCL") at all/most lead times.
[1/2]
My *preliminary* homogeneous verification shows that the DeepMind ensemble mean "GDMN" is dominating in both track and intensity, beating the revered "HCCA" consensus and the NHC ("OFCL") at all/most lead times.
[1/2]
October 22, 2025 at 5:50 PM
How is the Google DeepMind model doing so far this Atlantic hurricane season?
My *preliminary* homogeneous verification shows that the DeepMind ensemble mean "GDMN" is dominating in both track and intensity, beating the revered "HCCA" consensus and the NHC ("OFCL") at all/most lead times.
[1/2]
My *preliminary* homogeneous verification shows that the DeepMind ensemble mean "GDMN" is dominating in both track and intensity, beating the revered "HCCA" consensus and the NHC ("OFCL") at all/most lead times.
[1/2]
Reposted by R. Saravanan
I've not seen a pattern like this before in sea waves. Nice!
When two wave systems collide, they can form square patterns, like the ones shown here. Researchers want to understand the math underlying the strange phenomena that ripple through ocean waters. www.quantamagazine.org/the-hidden-m...
October 22, 2025 at 5:35 PM
I've not seen a pattern like this before in sea waves. Nice!
Reposted by R. Saravanan
I often find myself confused by some app forecasts where the icon is rain, but the stated probability of precipitation is small (e.g., 30%). So it's more likely to be dry but... the expectation is (somehow) rain? Or is the icon just flagging a risk? Do non-meteorologists actually think about this?
October 22, 2025 at 2:21 PM
I often find myself confused by some app forecasts where the icon is rain, but the stated probability of precipitation is small (e.g., 30%). So it's more likely to be dry but... the expectation is (somehow) rain? Or is the icon just flagging a risk? Do non-meteorologists actually think about this?
Reposted by R. Saravanan
I've started a substack newsletter. If you've liked my podcast or media articles, you might like this too. In the short term, mostly about my late uncle, artist Sumner Crane. But eventually, climate, life, politics etc. First post is just saying hi, real content soon. substack.com/home/post/p-...
Hello World
If you’re reading this, you probably already know me.
substack.com
October 21, 2025 at 2:52 PM
I've started a substack newsletter. If you've liked my podcast or media articles, you might like this too. In the short term, mostly about my late uncle, artist Sumner Crane. But eventually, climate, life, politics etc. First post is just saying hi, real content soon. substack.com/home/post/p-...
Reposted by R. Saravanan
My latest for @climateconnections.bsky.social
October 17, 2025 at 3:03 PM
My latest for @climateconnections.bsky.social
Reposted by R. Saravanan
We invite applications for two tenure-track faculty positions at the Assistant to Associate professor level: jobs.colostate.edu/postings/167...
Assistant/Associate Professor
The Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University invites applications for two tenure-track faculty positions at the Assistant to Associate professor level:1) Climate dynamics. We see...
jobs.colostate.edu
October 13, 2025 at 5:20 PM
We invite applications for two tenure-track faculty positions at the Assistant to Associate professor level: jobs.colostate.edu/postings/167...
Reposted by R. Saravanan
An atmospheric general circulation model you can run on a Python Jupyter notebook?! Heck yeah! Check out this project- both an educational tool for undergraduates/graduate students, and a research tool for scientists interested in idealized climate modeling.
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
journals.ametsoc.org
October 13, 2025 at 7:35 PM
An atmospheric general circulation model you can run on a Python Jupyter notebook?! Heck yeah! Check out this project- both an educational tool for undergraduates/graduate students, and a research tool for scientists interested in idealized climate modeling.
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
Reposted by R. Saravanan
This two-parter below is exactly why it's hard to make clothes in the United States.
Let's look at how much it costs to produce a button-up shirt in the US. 🧵
Let's look at how much it costs to produce a button-up shirt in the US. 🧵
October 12, 2025 at 9:38 PM
This two-parter below is exactly why it's hard to make clothes in the United States.
Let's look at how much it costs to produce a button-up shirt in the US. 🧵
Let's look at how much it costs to produce a button-up shirt in the US. 🧵
Reposted by R. Saravanan
New from me at Cato: I go through the numerous and massive First Amendment and academic-freedom violations of Trump's proffered "compact" with universities and then talk about the mechanism by which it would be enforced, by way of what I describe as a "retroactive push-button guillotine."
Universities Must Defend Their Independence by Rejecting Trump's "Compact"
The Trump administration has proffered a “compact” to universities that would require them to surrender their independence and academic freedom. How many First Amendment violations can we identify in ...
www.cato.org
October 11, 2025 at 2:08 AM
New from me at Cato: I go through the numerous and massive First Amendment and academic-freedom violations of Trump's proffered "compact" with universities and then talk about the mechanism by which it would be enforced, by way of what I describe as a "retroactive push-button guillotine."
Reposted by R. Saravanan
David Simon, creator of ‘The Wire’, being interviewed by Ari Shapiro (NPR)
October 9, 2025 at 4:42 AM
David Simon, creator of ‘The Wire’, being interviewed by Ari Shapiro (NPR)
Reposted by R. Saravanan
While I’m at the UCAR Member’s meeting, I’m reminding everyone of the internships, workshops, and other student opportunities that they have available! www.ucar.edu/exhibit/stud...
Exhibit resources | University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
www.ucar.edu
October 8, 2025 at 12:48 PM
While I’m at the UCAR Member’s meeting, I’m reminding everyone of the internships, workshops, and other student opportunities that they have available! www.ucar.edu/exhibit/stud...
Reposted by R. Saravanan
The Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences at Texas A&M has a YouTube channel. Check out our first video! Starring @knubez.bsky.social along with many faculty and students!
youtu.be/_e57SmX2Ijw?...
youtu.be/_e57SmX2Ijw?...
Texas A&M Atmospheric Sciences
YouTube video by TAMU Atmospheric Sciences
youtu.be
October 2, 2025 at 1:18 AM
The Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences at Texas A&M has a YouTube channel. Check out our first video! Starring @knubez.bsky.social along with many faculty and students!
youtu.be/_e57SmX2Ijw?...
youtu.be/_e57SmX2Ijw?...
Reposted by R. Saravanan
Adding my 2 cents to the discussion on Google DeepMind’s performance for Imelda… 🧵
You might see a map like this and be impressed that at no point did it predict landfall in the US. But there is a lot of context lost by simplifying it to just one image.
You might see a map like this and be impressed that at no point did it predict landfall in the US. But there is a lot of context lost by simplifying it to just one image.
September 30, 2025 at 1:13 AM
Adding my 2 cents to the discussion on Google DeepMind’s performance for Imelda… 🧵
You might see a map like this and be impressed that at no point did it predict landfall in the US. But there is a lot of context lost by simplifying it to just one image.
You might see a map like this and be impressed that at no point did it predict landfall in the US. But there is a lot of context lost by simplifying it to just one image.
Reposted by R. Saravanan
"In science, to be ‘conservative’ is to understate your findings. In insurance, it means the opposite: erring on the side of overstatement of risks. For a clear assessment of the risks of #climate change, we need these two cultures to meet in the middle"
www.cambridge.org/core/books/a...
www.cambridge.org/core/books/a...
The Meaning of Conservative (Chapter 6) - Five Times Faster
Five Times Faster - November 2024
www.cambridge.org
September 30, 2025 at 2:02 AM
"In science, to be ‘conservative’ is to understate your findings. In insurance, it means the opposite: erring on the side of overstatement of risks. For a clear assessment of the risks of #climate change, we need these two cultures to meet in the middle"
www.cambridge.org/core/books/a...
www.cambridge.org/core/books/a...
Reposted by R. Saravanan
Most of the "90% of code written by AI" claims come from vendors selling AI tools and lack credibility as a result
Armin (creator of Flask, Jinja, Click) is different - when he says 90% of a new significant infrastructure project he's building was AI generated that's worth paying attention to
Armin (creator of Flask, Jinja, Click) is different - when he says 90% of a new significant infrastructure project he's building was AI generated that's worth paying attention to
“Is 90% of code going to be written by AI? I don’t know. What I do know is, that for me, on this project, the answer is already yes.” lucumr.pocoo.org/2025/9/29/90...
90%
AI is writing 90% of the code I was in charge of
lucumr.pocoo.org
September 29, 2025 at 4:27 PM
Most of the "90% of code written by AI" claims come from vendors selling AI tools and lack credibility as a result
Armin (creator of Flask, Jinja, Click) is different - when he says 90% of a new significant infrastructure project he's building was AI generated that's worth paying attention to
Armin (creator of Flask, Jinja, Click) is different - when he says 90% of a new significant infrastructure project he's building was AI generated that's worth paying attention to
Reposted by R. Saravanan
My latest effort to be super-popular in @nytimes.com: “Spraying Roundup on Crops Is Fine. Really.” Yes, the world’s most hated herbicide is way less toxic than caffeine. Here’s a gift link where you can leave all your supportive comments: www.nytimes.com/2025/09/28/o...
Opinion | Spraying Roundup on Crops Is Fine. Really.
www.nytimes.com
September 28, 2025 at 12:50 PM
My latest effort to be super-popular in @nytimes.com: “Spraying Roundup on Crops Is Fine. Really.” Yes, the world’s most hated herbicide is way less toxic than caffeine. Here’s a gift link where you can leave all your supportive comments: www.nytimes.com/2025/09/28/o...
Reposted by R. Saravanan
90 of 111 fatalities from Hurricane Rita happened due to the evacuation. 20 years later, would we do any better?
@sarava.net shouting out the value of much improved track forecasts
🎁 link:
@sarava.net shouting out the value of much improved track forecasts
🎁 link:
20 years after Rita’s gridlock nightmare, is Houston ready to evacuate again?
Stalled and overheated cars, endless gridlock and nearly 100 deaths. The deadly Hurricane Rita evacuation is still etched in the memories of many Houstonians 20 years later.
www.houstonchronicle.com
September 25, 2025 at 10:27 PM
90 of 111 fatalities from Hurricane Rita happened due to the evacuation. 20 years later, would we do any better?
@sarava.net shouting out the value of much improved track forecasts
🎁 link:
@sarava.net shouting out the value of much improved track forecasts
🎁 link: