Julius Garbe
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juliusgarbe.github.io
Julius Garbe
@juliusgarbe.github.io
Antarctica Director @iccinet.bsky.social | PhD candidate @pik-potsdam.bsky.social. #IceSheets, #SeaLevelRise, Earth System #Resilience & #TippingPoints. Focus on #AntarcticIceSheet stability.

🌐 https://juliusgarbe.github.io
Pinned
🚨📢 New Publication Alert

Our new study shows that the #WestAntarctic #IceSheet repeatedly crossed #TippingPoint thresholds in the past, with important implications for its future stability.

Press release: www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/late...

Study: www.nature.com/articles/s43...

🌊🧊⚒️🧪🥼
Scientists say next few years vital to securing the future of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet
03.06.2025 – Collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet could be triggered with very little ocean warming above present-day, leading to a devastating four metres of global sea level rise to play out ove...
www.pik-potsdam.de
Reposted by Julius Garbe
A quick look back at 2025 regarding the instability risk of the Atlantic Ocean circulation #AMOC.🌊
Some bad, some positive news.
A meta-analysis of 768 simulations with 38 different climate models shows an #AMOC shutdown is not a low-probability event any more. 1/6 iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
December 30, 2025 at 3:20 PM
Reposted by Julius Garbe
As scientists 🧪 who regularly attend UN #climate summits, we've noticed efforts to downplay, confuse and dilute the latest scientific findings, especially from the cryosphere ❄️.

This is alarming.

More details in @theconversation.com

theconversation.com/earths-froze...

@geogdurham.bsky.social
Earth’s frozen regions are sending a clear warning about climate change – but politicians are ignoring it
The warning lights from the cryosphere have been flashing red for several years and governments and policymakers ignore this at their peril.
theconversation.com
December 18, 2025 at 11:44 AM
Earth’s frozen regions are sending a clear warning about climate change – but politicians are ignoring it

theconversation.com/earths-froze...
Earth’s frozen regions are sending a clear warning about climate change – but politicians are ignoring it
The warning lights from the cryosphere have been flashing red for several years and governments and policymakers ignore this at their peril.
theconversation.com
December 18, 2025 at 11:49 AM
Reposted by Julius Garbe
“We cannot negotiate with the melting point of ice.”

Our latest blog post by Fabian Seemann gives a summary of attending COP30 as an Early Career Scientist with the International Cryosphere Climate Initiative (ICCI).

blogs.egu.eu/divisions/cr...
Speaking Up for the Cryosphere at COP30
During the climate negotiations at COP30, the global importance of a warming cryosphere was stressed in various formats. The UNFCCC Conference of Parties (this year’s COP30) marks the yearly global cl...
blogs.egu.eu
December 17, 2025 at 8:58 AM
Reposted by Julius Garbe
#Glacier #extinction rates will peak within decades, with thousands of glaciers disappearing each year by 2040s. Peak extinction rates in #Alps will be reached in the 2030s.

Urgent policy action can still prevent thousands of glaciers from being lost per year.

🧪❄️ www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Peak glacier extinction in the mid-twenty-first century - Nature Climate Change
Many mountain glaciers will disappear with warming. Here the authors assess how many glaciers will disappear per year under different warming scenarios, finding that a peak in glacier loss will happen...
www.nature.com
December 16, 2025 at 10:43 AM
Reposted by Julius Garbe
Rising temperatures could to lead to the loss of thousands of glaciers per year, with up to ~4,000 vanishing annually under high emissions.

1.5°C could halve this loss 🧵

@landervt.bsky.social @harryzeko.bsky.social @matthias-huss.bsky.social @davidrounce.bsky.social @lilianschuster.bsky.social
December 15, 2025 at 11:04 PM
Reposted by Julius Garbe
Dankbar allen die die Faltung zum Bestseller gemacht haben.

faltungderwelt.de
December 15, 2025 at 3:37 PM
Reposted by Julius Garbe
The uniquely vulnerable West Antarctic Ice Sheet holds enough water to raise global sea levels by 5 meters. But when that will happen—and how fast—is anything but settled.
The Oceans Are Going to Rise—but When?
The uniquely vulnerable West Antarctic Ice Sheet holds enough water to raise global sea levels by 5 meters. But when that will happen—and how fast—is anything but settled.
wrd.cm
December 7, 2025 at 3:25 AM
Reposted by Julius Garbe
Antarctica’s future beyond 2100: high emissions would drive major long-term ice loss, finds new PIK study. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet’s long-term collapse becomes virtually certain under high emissions; strong mitigation would limit sea-level rise contribution.
www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/late...
Antarctica’s future beyond 2100: high emissions would drive major long-term ice loss
05.12.2025 - The future of the Antarctic ice sheet, Earth’s largest store of freshwater ice, will play a decisive role in long-term sea level rise, finds a new study led jointly by the Potsdam Institu...
www.pik-potsdam.de
December 5, 2025 at 11:11 AM
Reposted by Julius Garbe
👎 Stratospheric aerosol injection
👎 Sea curtains
👎 Sea ice management
👎 Basal water removal
👎 Ocean fertilization

None of these #geoengineering ideas can be relied upon to safeguard the poles—pursuing them risks distracting from the solutions we know will work www.weforum.org/stories/2025...
5 geoengineering ideas and why they will not save the poles
Various geoengineering projects seek to mask or slow the impact of global warming at the poles, but do not hold up to scrutiny. Two scientists outline why.
www.weforum.org
December 1, 2025 at 8:28 PM
Reposted by Julius Garbe
When a government speaks responsibly about climate risks. Iceland's climate minister Jóhannsson:
"We believe that confronting climate tipping points and the risks they pose openly is not a sign of 'pessimism' or 'alarmism' but a sign of realism and responsibility."
youtu.be/B-0eQnEEsYA?...
After COP30 Fire and Floods: AMOC Shutdown
YouTube video by International Cryosphere Climate Initiative
youtu.be
November 23, 2025 at 6:43 PM
Reposted by Julius Garbe
🚨 JUST PUBLISHED: CARBON BRIEF’S #COP30 SUMMARY 🚨

It's an EPIC 20,000 words of top-notch, plain-english reporting…

–Global mutirão
–Adaptation finance
–Fossil-fuel roadmap
–China
+Much more

Very proud of team CB for getting this out so fast

www.carbonbrief.org/...
November 23, 2025 at 4:12 PM
🎞️ After COP30 fire and floods: AMOC shutdown 🔥🌊

Our event on #AMOC shutdown was interrupted by the fire at #COP30 yesterday – but this is an important message so we wanted to make sure you heard it.

▶️ www.youtube.com/watch?v=B-0e...

@rahmstorf.bsky.social @iccinet.bsky.social
After COP30 Fire and Floods: AMOC Shutdown
YouTube video by International Cryosphere Climate Initiative
www.youtube.com
November 21, 2025 at 11:06 PM
Reposted by Julius Garbe
Tomorrow at #COP30 and online @rahmstorf.bsky.social will present latest AMOC science & potential impacts of shutdown

The event will be chaired by Minister Johannsson of Iceland and will include perspectives from representatives of Ireland, UK, Canada, and Finland

iccinet.org/cop30-cryosp...

🧪🌊
November 19, 2025 at 8:27 PM
Reposted by Julius Garbe
Catch @billhare.bsky.social speaking at #icci #COP30 event– The Perils of Ignoring Science and 1.5°C at COP30: Tipping Points in the Cryosphere.

He presents our work on limiting overshoot and returning warming back well below 1.5°C by 2100.

📅 Nov 14 15:00-16:30 BRT
📍 Side Event Room 9
November 14, 2025 at 4:52 PM
Reposted by Julius Garbe
Launch of @iccinet.bsky.social 2025 State of the Cryosphere Report yesterday evening is featured on @theguardian.com #COP30 feed today:

We cannot negotiate with the melting point of ice!

www.theguardian.com/environment/...
November 14, 2025 at 2:34 PM
Reposted by Julius Garbe
“We cannot negotiate with the melting point of ice” -striking message from @iccinet.bsky.social report

Ice melt leads to the most profound long-term impact of the #climatecrisis - sea level rise

#climatecrisis
Post by me
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
Cop day 5 live: Indigenous activists blockade the summit centre as climate conference continues
As the climate conference goes into its fifth day, with huge amounts still unresolved, there were reports that activists had blockaded the entrance to the centre
www.theguardian.com
November 14, 2025 at 2:26 PM
Reposted by Julius Garbe
Information for journalists at COP30:

TODAY 6:30pm, Thurs Nov. 13 | Media briefing on the State of the Cryosphere Report 2025 and its relevance for COP30 negotiations.

Join in person or online: www.youtube.com/watch?v=a_Gw...

🚨 Cryosphere Pavilion (left of main hallway, behind UNFCCC Pavilion)
November 13, 2025 at 5:56 PM
Reposted by Julius Garbe
10 years after the Paris Agreement, the international community has come together at #COP30 to once again negotiate global climate action. 10 years ago, we published a paper on why the right #climate target was agreed in Paris. Still true. Because the science does not change. #ScienceIsNotNegotiable
November 11, 2025 at 7:53 PM
Reposted by Julius Garbe
After years of political failure, the world can still rescue 1.5°C – if countries pursue the “highest possible ambition”, starting now.

New report from Climate Analytics and @pik-potsdam.bsky.social shows how it’s possible.

Read more: climateanalytics.org/publications...
Rescuing 1.5°C: new evidence on the highest possible ambition to…
This study shows that, even after years of insufficient action, the world can still return to well below 1.5°C of warming this century if countries pursue the “highest possible ambition” in climate ac...
climateanalytics.org
November 6, 2025 at 11:49 AM
Reposted by Julius Garbe
🌊🧊🇦🇶
I am happy and proud to present our #platformist team effort out in @nature.com!
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
We examine if, when, and why #Antarctic #ice shelves will no longer be viable, at the latest, due to changes in #atmosphere and #ocean conditions.
A little 🧵 for the experts...
1/7
Ocean warming threatens the viability of 60% of Antarctic ice shelves - Nature
The viability of Antarctic ice shelves under low rates and high rates of global warming is modelled to estimate when it will become unfeasible for the ice shelves to maintain their present-day shape.
www.nature.com
October 29, 2025 at 4:41 PM
Reposted by Julius Garbe
📢 New paper out!

🌊 We discuss how well mechanisms of variability in the subpolar gyre are represented in climate models, finding that models that do this best are also the models in which abrupt shifts are found 😬.

It's a technical story, so here's a simple overview 🧵

doi.org/10.5194/esd-...
Causal mechanisms of subpolar gyre variability in CMIP6 models
Abstract. The subpolar gyre is at risk of crossing a tipping point under future climate change associated with the collapse of deep convection. As such, tipping can have significant climate impacts; i...
doi.org
October 28, 2025 at 12:27 PM
Reposted by Julius Garbe
1. We’re living through a very hot year (again). Right now, 2025 looks like it could come in as the 2nd or 3rd hottest year on record
October 24, 2025 at 2:50 PM
Reposted by Julius Garbe
Really important paper led by my @iiasa.ac.at colleague Alex Nauels www.nature.com/articles/s41...
“The difference between decisive climate action today and continued high emissions is not just measured in degrees of warming but also in meters of sea-level rise” 👏👏👏
Multi-century global and regional sea-level rise commitments from cumulative greenhouse gas emissions in the coming decades - Nature Climate Change
It is important to understand how much long-term sea-level rise is already committed due to historical and near-term emissions. Here the authors use a modelling framework to show how decisions on glob...
www.nature.com
October 24, 2025 at 10:40 AM