Dr Tom Harris
@drtomharris.bsky.social
UK based Climate Science Writer & Advocate writing on Substack under Climate Uncovered.
Soon to be retired Management Consultant specialising in Government funded R&D.
Soon to be retired Management Consultant specialising in Government funded R&D.
Reposted by Dr Tom Harris
This video is based on Davies et al. (2026), which came out today: www.doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2025.1730203
Frontiers | The Antarctic Peninsula under present day climate and future low, medium-high and very high emissions scenarios
The Antarctic Peninsula is warming rapidly, with more frequent extreme temperature and precipitation events, reduced sea ice, glacier retreat, ice shelf coll...
www.doi.org
February 20, 2026 at 11:24 AM
This video is based on Davies et al. (2026), which came out today: www.doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2025.1730203
Reposted by Dr Tom Harris
Another must watch from Yellow Dot ... featuring 3 of my recently posted images (thanks!).
Trump's lies vs. the last four weeks of extreme weather reality:
February 18, 2026 at 9:50 PM
Another must watch from Yellow Dot ... featuring 3 of my recently posted images (thanks!).
A new study has analysed the tipping behaviour of the Antarctic ice sheet, breaking it down to 18 specific drainage basins. This uncovers the individual stability and likely melting behaviour as global temperatures rise.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
#Antarctica #glaciers #icesheet #tippingpoint
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
#Antarctica #glaciers #icesheet #tippingpoint
Mapping tipping risks from Antarctic ice basins under global warming - Nature Climate Change
Climate change threatens the future of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Here the authors show that individual drainage basins have different thresholds and loss patterns, suggesting the need to consider the d...
www.nature.com
February 19, 2026 at 9:24 AM
A new study has analysed the tipping behaviour of the Antarctic ice sheet, breaking it down to 18 specific drainage basins. This uncovers the individual stability and likely melting behaviour as global temperatures rise.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
#Antarctica #glaciers #icesheet #tippingpoint
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
#Antarctica #glaciers #icesheet #tippingpoint
Reposted by Dr Tom Harris
Catastrophic Valencia #floods in 2024 made more intense by human caused warming of #climage that increased moisture supply, invigorated the storm through latent heat release & altered cloud microphsyical processes based on high resolution physical-based attribution modelling: doi.org/10.1038/s414...
February 18, 2026 at 10:56 AM
Catastrophic Valencia #floods in 2024 made more intense by human caused warming of #climage that increased moisture supply, invigorated the storm through latent heat release & altered cloud microphsyical processes based on high resolution physical-based attribution modelling: doi.org/10.1038/s414...
Self-reinforcing feedbacks and tipping cascades could propel the world into a Hothouse Trajectory that humanity would be unable to reverse unless we start taking action soon. This is the conclusion of a recent paper from William Ripple et al.
drtomharris.substack.com/p/the-point-...
#climatechange
drtomharris.substack.com/p/the-point-...
#climatechange
The Point of No Return: Are We Entering the Hothouse?
A new paper explains the growing risk of an unstoppable “Hothouse Earth” trajectory as warming accelerates and tipping points approach.
drtomharris.substack.com
February 18, 2026 at 9:45 AM
Self-reinforcing feedbacks and tipping cascades could propel the world into a Hothouse Trajectory that humanity would be unable to reverse unless we start taking action soon. This is the conclusion of a recent paper from William Ripple et al.
drtomharris.substack.com/p/the-point-...
#climatechange
drtomharris.substack.com/p/the-point-...
#climatechange
Reposted by Dr Tom Harris
Your 'moment of doom' for Feb. 17, 2026 ~ Wet bulb alert?
"The heating is going to be so big and so obvious that it will lead, for the first time, to a real global discussion of solar geoengineering as a response."
billmckibben.substack.com/p/an-el-nino...
"The heating is going to be so big and so obvious that it will lead, for the first time, to a real global discussion of solar geoengineering as a response."
billmckibben.substack.com/p/an-el-nino...
An El Niño is brewing
And with it the next, pivotal, chapter of the climate fight.
billmckibben.substack.com
February 17, 2026 at 2:46 PM
Your 'moment of doom' for Feb. 17, 2026 ~ Wet bulb alert?
"The heating is going to be so big and so obvious that it will lead, for the first time, to a real global discussion of solar geoengineering as a response."
billmckibben.substack.com/p/an-el-nino...
"The heating is going to be so big and so obvious that it will lead, for the first time, to a real global discussion of solar geoengineering as a response."
billmckibben.substack.com/p/an-el-nino...
It’s no surprise that the Mediterranean Sea has experienced significant warming recently, but a new biological study finds it is changing into a tropical sea from the base of the food chain upwards.
#climatechange #oceans #Mediterranean #foodweb #plankton #oceanhealth
#climatechange #oceans #Mediterranean #foodweb #plankton #oceanhealth
February 16, 2026 at 2:41 PM
It’s no surprise that the Mediterranean Sea has experienced significant warming recently, but a new biological study finds it is changing into a tropical sea from the base of the food chain upwards.
#climatechange #oceans #Mediterranean #foodweb #plankton #oceanhealth
#climatechange #oceans #Mediterranean #foodweb #plankton #oceanhealth
Coral reef ecosystems are in decline and indeed, have been assessed to have passed their Tipping Point. A new study used 7,000 year old fossil evidence to track changes in the food webs of Caribbean reefs.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
#climatechange #oceans #coralreefs #ecosystem #tipppingpoint
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
#climatechange #oceans #coralreefs #ecosystem #tipppingpoint
Fossil isotope evidence for trophic simplification on modern Caribbean reefs - Nature
Using nitrogen isotopes from ancient and modern fish otoliths and corals, the study shows Caribbean reef food webs are now 60–70% shorter and functionally less diverse, indicating human-driven tr...
www.nature.com
February 15, 2026 at 10:17 AM
Coral reef ecosystems are in decline and indeed, have been assessed to have passed their Tipping Point. A new study used 7,000 year old fossil evidence to track changes in the food webs of Caribbean reefs.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
#climatechange #oceans #coralreefs #ecosystem #tipppingpoint
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
#climatechange #oceans #coralreefs #ecosystem #tipppingpoint
🤞 The 'temporary' rescinding of the Endangerment Finding will be as effective against the tide of global market penetration of EVs as deregulating the lead content of horseshoes would have been in 2010.
February 13, 2026 at 11:42 AM
🤞 The 'temporary' rescinding of the Endangerment Finding will be as effective against the tide of global market penetration of EVs as deregulating the lead content of horseshoes would have been in 2010.
As the EPA prepares to axe the Endangerment Finding, essentially wiping out emissions control, Big Oil is not as pleased as you might expect. HEATED explains why 👇
substack.com/inbox/post/1...
#climateaction #EPA #endangermentfinding
substack.com/inbox/post/1...
#climateaction #EPA #endangermentfinding
Trump is wiping out all climate regulation. Big Oil may regret it.
For decades, oil majors fought climate regulation. Now, they’re afraid Trump’s extreme rollbacks could leave them on the hook to pay for what they’ve done.
substack.com
February 12, 2026 at 11:22 AM
As the EPA prepares to axe the Endangerment Finding, essentially wiping out emissions control, Big Oil is not as pleased as you might expect. HEATED explains why 👇
substack.com/inbox/post/1...
#climateaction #EPA #endangermentfinding
substack.com/inbox/post/1...
#climateaction #EPA #endangermentfinding
Reposted by Dr Tom Harris
New study looks at extreme Greenland melting events over 1950–2023:
- Seven of the ten most extreme events occurred after 2000.
- Future projections under high-emission scenarios suggest that extreme meltwater anomalies could increase by up to +372% by 2100.
🌊
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
- Seven of the ten most extreme events occurred after 2000.
- Future projections under high-emission scenarios suggest that extreme meltwater anomalies could increase by up to +372% by 2100.
🌊
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Record-breaking Greenland ice sheet melt events under recent and future climate - Nature Communications
Extreme melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet has intensified since 1950 as climate warming amplifies melt beyond atmospheric circulation effects. Recent record events are unprecedented and projected to ...
www.nature.com
February 12, 2026 at 9:05 AM
New study looks at extreme Greenland melting events over 1950–2023:
- Seven of the ten most extreme events occurred after 2000.
- Future projections under high-emission scenarios suggest that extreme meltwater anomalies could increase by up to +372% by 2100.
🌊
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
- Seven of the ten most extreme events occurred after 2000.
- Future projections under high-emission scenarios suggest that extreme meltwater anomalies could increase by up to +372% by 2100.
🌊
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
How do we predict the climate of 2030, 2050 or 2100? We have to interrogate the past. Modern weather records only go back about 150 years. To understand where our planet is heading, we need a longer memory.
drtomharris.substack.com/p/the-isotop...
#ClimateScience #Paleoclimate #climatechange
drtomharris.substack.com/p/the-isotop...
#ClimateScience #Paleoclimate #climatechange
The Isotope Archive: How Paleoclimate Science is Narrowing the Gap in Climate Projections
By analysing high-resolution proxies and deep-time isotopes, researchers are uncovering the Earth’s true response to rising greenhouse gas levels.
drtomharris.substack.com
February 11, 2026 at 9:36 AM
How do we predict the climate of 2030, 2050 or 2100? We have to interrogate the past. Modern weather records only go back about 150 years. To understand where our planet is heading, we need a longer memory.
drtomharris.substack.com/p/the-isotop...
#ClimateScience #Paleoclimate #climatechange
drtomharris.substack.com/p/the-isotop...
#ClimateScience #Paleoclimate #climatechange
Predicting tipping points in complex noisy signals is hard, but essential as so many are approached. Annual and natural cycles make it even more challenging, but a new approach looks very promising.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
#climatechange #tippingpoints #AMOC #Amazon #glaciers #CSD
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
#climatechange #tippingpoints #AMOC #Amazon #glaciers #CSD
Predicting instabilities in transient landforms and interconnected ecosystems - Nature Communications
The authors introduce a method to assess the stability of periodic (seasonal) systems without the need for complex data pre-processing and show that it can be used to predict the onset of glacier surg...
www.nature.com
February 9, 2026 at 4:46 PM
Predicting tipping points in complex noisy signals is hard, but essential as so many are approached. Annual and natural cycles make it even more challenging, but a new approach looks very promising.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
#climatechange #tippingpoints #AMOC #Amazon #glaciers #CSD
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
#climatechange #tippingpoints #AMOC #Amazon #glaciers #CSD
Reposted by Dr Tom Harris
Devastating floods have hit Portugal, Spain & Morocco in the past days, causing loss of life & billions of Euros in damages.
How does climate change impact the flood risks from rain, rivers & rising seas?
Watch my lecture Flooded Futures: What are We Planning For? 🌊
www.youtube.com/watch?v=wtd8...
How does climate change impact the flood risks from rain, rivers & rising seas?
Watch my lecture Flooded Futures: What are We Planning For? 🌊
www.youtube.com/watch?v=wtd8...
Flooded Futures: Understanding the Rising Threats and How We Prepare | Stefan Rahmstorf
YouTube video by Holcim Foundation
www.youtube.com
February 9, 2026 at 11:39 AM
Devastating floods have hit Portugal, Spain & Morocco in the past days, causing loss of life & billions of Euros in damages.
How does climate change impact the flood risks from rain, rivers & rising seas?
Watch my lecture Flooded Futures: What are We Planning For? 🌊
www.youtube.com/watch?v=wtd8...
How does climate change impact the flood risks from rain, rivers & rising seas?
Watch my lecture Flooded Futures: What are We Planning For? 🌊
www.youtube.com/watch?v=wtd8...
Scientists outline the case for next-generation Ocean Iron Fertilisation (OIF) field trials in a new publication. OIF is a marine carbon dioxide removal strategy which enhances natural plankton blooms allowing them to capture and sequester CO2.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/epub/10....
journals.sagepub.com/doi/epub/10....
Sage Journals: Discover world-class research
Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.
journals.sagepub.com
February 7, 2026 at 9:09 AM
Scientists outline the case for next-generation Ocean Iron Fertilisation (OIF) field trials in a new publication. OIF is a marine carbon dioxide removal strategy which enhances natural plankton blooms allowing them to capture and sequester CO2.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/epub/10....
journals.sagepub.com/doi/epub/10....
Reposted by Dr Tom Harris
The presumed upcoming El Nino will help cement and quantify global warming acceleration, showing that 2C global warming is likely to be reached in the 2030s, not at midcentury.
See Another El Nino Already? mailchi.mp/caa/another-... Also available on Substack: jimehansen.substack.com/p/another-el...
See Another El Nino Already? mailchi.mp/caa/another-... Also available on Substack: jimehansen.substack.com/p/another-el...
February 6, 2026 at 3:24 PM
The presumed upcoming El Nino will help cement and quantify global warming acceleration, showing that 2C global warming is likely to be reached in the 2030s, not at midcentury.
See Another El Nino Already? mailchi.mp/caa/another-... Also available on Substack: jimehansen.substack.com/p/another-el...
See Another El Nino Already? mailchi.mp/caa/another-... Also available on Substack: jimehansen.substack.com/p/another-el...
The Methane spike in the early 2020’s has been explained in two new studies. A combination of weakened atmospheric removal and increased emissions from warming wetlands, rivers, lakes, and agricultural land are to blame.
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
#methane
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
#methane
Why methane surged in the atmosphere during the early 2020s
The atmospheric methane (CH4) growth rate surged after 2019, peaking at 16.2 parts per billion per year (ppb year−1) in 2020 before declining to 8.6 ppb year−1 in 2023. Using multiple atmospheric inve...
www.science.org
February 6, 2026 at 11:24 AM
The Methane spike in the early 2020’s has been explained in two new studies. A combination of weakened atmospheric removal and increased emissions from warming wetlands, rivers, lakes, and agricultural land are to blame.
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
#methane
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
#methane
Reposted by Dr Tom Harris
Today, a new report from University of Exeter and Carbon Tracker shows how the economic models used by governments, central banks and investors are increasingly understating risks as we head toward 2°C.
Read the full report here: greenfuturessolutions.com/news/recalib...
Read the full report here: greenfuturessolutions.com/news/recalib...
February 5, 2026 at 5:37 PM
Today, a new report from University of Exeter and Carbon Tracker shows how the economic models used by governments, central banks and investors are increasingly understating risks as we head toward 2°C.
Read the full report here: greenfuturessolutions.com/news/recalib...
Read the full report here: greenfuturessolutions.com/news/recalib...
Two new studies show positive signs of how warming is increasing the destruction of the number 2 and number 3 Green House Gases. Forest soils are absorbing more methane and nitrous oxide break down in the stratosphere is accelerating.
#Greenhousegases #climatechange
#Greenhousegases #climatechange
February 5, 2026 at 12:18 PM
Two new studies show positive signs of how warming is increasing the destruction of the number 2 and number 3 Green House Gases. Forest soils are absorbing more methane and nitrous oxide break down in the stratosphere is accelerating.
#Greenhousegases #climatechange
#Greenhousegases #climatechange
Reposted by Dr Tom Harris
Just out today: The report “A Nordic Perspective on AMOC Tipping” reviews the current state of science on the risk of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (#AMOC) shutdown. 🌊
Conclusion: it's "a serious risk which requires a dedicated risk management framework".
pub.norden.org/temanord2026...
Conclusion: it's "a serious risk which requires a dedicated risk management framework".
pub.norden.org/temanord2026...
A Nordic Perspective on AMOC Tipping
This report is the outcome of the Nordic Council of Minister’s sponsored workshop arranged in October 21-24, 2025 in Helsinki and Rovaniemi, Finland as part of Finland’s council presidency theme resil...
pub.norden.org
February 5, 2026 at 10:46 AM
Just out today: The report “A Nordic Perspective on AMOC Tipping” reviews the current state of science on the risk of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (#AMOC) shutdown. 🌊
Conclusion: it's "a serious risk which requires a dedicated risk management framework".
pub.norden.org/temanord2026...
Conclusion: it's "a serious risk which requires a dedicated risk management framework".
pub.norden.org/temanord2026...
As the world turns its eyes toward the Winter Olympics, a more sobering reality is unfolding across the global mountain cryosphere. Our mountains are not just playgrounds; they are the world’s most critical, and most fragile, life-support systems.
drtomharris.substack.com/p/going-down...
drtomharris.substack.com/p/going-down...
Going Downhill: The Olympic Race Against a Receding Snow Line
How elevation-dependent climate change is melting the mountain cryosphere, threatening high-altitude biodiversity, water security and pushing the Winter Olympics to the brink of extinction.
drtomharris.substack.com
February 4, 2026 at 9:31 AM
As the world turns its eyes toward the Winter Olympics, a more sobering reality is unfolding across the global mountain cryosphere. Our mountains are not just playgrounds; they are the world’s most critical, and most fragile, life-support systems.
drtomharris.substack.com/p/going-down...
drtomharris.substack.com/p/going-down...
Reposted by Dr Tom Harris
Fertilisation of the ocean with mineral dust promotes algal blooms that capture carbon, but when the same thing happens in Greenland, it reduces albedo leading to accelerating melting.
A new study analysed dust collected from the Greenland Ice sheet and found minerals essential to algal growth.
A new study analysed dust collected from the Greenland Ice sheet and found minerals essential to algal growth.
February 2, 2026 at 3:17 PM
Fertilisation of the ocean with mineral dust promotes algal blooms that capture carbon, but when the same thing happens in Greenland, it reduces albedo leading to accelerating melting.
A new study analysed dust collected from the Greenland Ice sheet and found minerals essential to algal growth.
A new study analysed dust collected from the Greenland Ice sheet and found minerals essential to algal growth.
Reposted by Dr Tom Harris
ICYMI - two unique job opportunities open at @climatecentral.org:
+ Climate Data Scientist (closing soon!): www.climatecentral.org/open-positio...
+ Associate Product Manager: www.climatecentral.org/open-positio...
+ Climate Data Scientist (closing soon!): www.climatecentral.org/open-positio...
+ Associate Product Manager: www.climatecentral.org/open-positio...
February 1, 2026 at 2:41 PM
ICYMI - two unique job opportunities open at @climatecentral.org:
+ Climate Data Scientist (closing soon!): www.climatecentral.org/open-positio...
+ Associate Product Manager: www.climatecentral.org/open-positio...
+ Climate Data Scientist (closing soon!): www.climatecentral.org/open-positio...
+ Associate Product Manager: www.climatecentral.org/open-positio...
A must watch 👇
As we are increasingly inundated with vast quantities of news, it becomes important to be able to tease out a thread on how they interconnect. The stories we tell ourselves about progress, growth, and stability no longer perfectly line up with the biophysical reality beneath them.
Japan, silver, Venezuela, and more - the biophysical phase shift cometh.
This week’s Frankly inaugurates a new category on The Great Simplification, Wide Boundary News, in which Nate views the constant churn of headlines through a wider-boundary lens.
www.thegreatsimplification.com/frankly-orig...
This week’s Frankly inaugurates a new category on The Great Simplification, Wide Boundary News, in which Nate views the constant churn of headlines through a wider-boundary lens.
www.thegreatsimplification.com/frankly-orig...
January 30, 2026 at 3:56 PM
A must watch 👇
