Dr Tom Harris
@drtomharris.bsky.social
UK based Climate Science Writer & Advocate writing on Substack under Climate Uncovered.
Soon to be retired Management Consultant specialising in Government funded R&D.
Soon to be retired Management Consultant specialising in Government funded R&D.
How possible is it to rescue 1.5ºC? A new report timed for the start of COP30 from Climate Analytics and PIK sets out a revision of the IPCC AR6 1.5ºC scenario which they call Highest Possible Ambition.
#climatechange #netzero #emissions #scenarios
#climatechange #netzero #emissions #scenarios
November 8, 2025 at 4:28 PM
How possible is it to rescue 1.5ºC? A new report timed for the start of COP30 from Climate Analytics and PIK sets out a revision of the IPCC AR6 1.5ºC scenario which they call Highest Possible Ambition.
#climatechange #netzero #emissions #scenarios
#climatechange #netzero #emissions #scenarios
Whilst its easy to get used to scary graphs, this one made me pause! The 2025 State of the Cryosphere report published yesterday has this one overlaying observations of #AMOC slowdown against model predictions.
The report states that “AMOC shutdown appears all but inevitable”
The report states that “AMOC shutdown appears all but inevitable”
November 7, 2025 at 9:28 AM
Whilst its easy to get used to scary graphs, this one made me pause! The 2025 State of the Cryosphere report published yesterday has this one overlaying observations of #AMOC slowdown against model predictions.
The report states that “AMOC shutdown appears all but inevitable”
The report states that “AMOC shutdown appears all but inevitable”
More evidence of the strong aerosol masking effect was published today. A new Nature paper attributes 70% of the cloud reduction over the north Pacific and Atlantic to aerosol reductions.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
#climatechange #aerosols #albedo #ECS #acceleration
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
#climatechange #aerosols #albedo #ECS #acceleration
Reduced aerosol pollution diminished cloud reflectivity over the North Atlantic and Northeast Pacific - Nature Communications
Marine cloud reflectivity declined by 2.8%/decade (2003-2022) over the NE Pacific and North Atlantic, enhancing shortwave absorption beyond climate model projections. Here, the authors use an improved...
www.nature.com
November 5, 2025 at 2:07 PM
More evidence of the strong aerosol masking effect was published today. A new Nature paper attributes 70% of the cloud reduction over the north Pacific and Atlantic to aerosol reductions.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
#climatechange #aerosols #albedo #ECS #acceleration
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
#climatechange #aerosols #albedo #ECS #acceleration
As we navigate the explosion of Artificial Intelligence, there is a great deal of both hope and dread about its impact on the climate.
In this article, Prof of Artificial Intelligence John MacIntyre and I carry out a deep dive into the issues.
drtomharris.substack.com/p/will-ai-sa...
In this article, Prof of Artificial Intelligence John MacIntyre and I carry out a deep dive into the issues.
drtomharris.substack.com/p/will-ai-sa...
Will A.I. save us from Climate Change or make it worse?
As we navigate the Third Golden Age of A.I., there is a great deal of both hope and dread about its impact on the climate. Optimisation vs energy demands, efficiency vs emissions. Where will it lead?
drtomharris.substack.com
November 5, 2025 at 9:31 AM
As we navigate the explosion of Artificial Intelligence, there is a great deal of both hope and dread about its impact on the climate.
In this article, Prof of Artificial Intelligence John MacIntyre and I carry out a deep dive into the issues.
drtomharris.substack.com/p/will-ai-sa...
In this article, Prof of Artificial Intelligence John MacIntyre and I carry out a deep dive into the issues.
drtomharris.substack.com/p/will-ai-sa...
Reposted by Dr Tom Harris
The Global Average Sea Surface Temperature is now very similar to 2015.
See if you can spot some regional differences:
1/2
See if you can spot some regional differences:
1/2
November 4, 2025 at 5:17 PM
The Global Average Sea Surface Temperature is now very similar to 2015.
See if you can spot some regional differences:
1/2
See if you can spot some regional differences:
1/2
What can coffins can tell us about climate?
2,200 years ago a wealthy soldier was buried in a grave on the frontier of the Han Dynasty territory in western China. Whilst the archaeology is interesting, the wood of his coffin is invaluable to dendrochronologists.
www.science.org/content/arti...
2,200 years ago a wealthy soldier was buried in a grave on the frontier of the Han Dynasty territory in western China. Whilst the archaeology is interesting, the wood of his coffin is invaluable to dendrochronologists.
www.science.org/content/arti...
Tree rings from ancient coffins offer clues to Earth’s past
Wood from gravesites can help reconstruct historic temperatures, floods, and droughts
www.science.org
November 4, 2025 at 2:33 PM
What can coffins can tell us about climate?
2,200 years ago a wealthy soldier was buried in a grave on the frontier of the Han Dynasty territory in western China. Whilst the archaeology is interesting, the wood of his coffin is invaluable to dendrochronologists.
www.science.org/content/arti...
2,200 years ago a wealthy soldier was buried in a grave on the frontier of the Han Dynasty territory in western China. Whilst the archaeology is interesting, the wood of his coffin is invaluable to dendrochronologists.
www.science.org/content/arti...
If you ever thought science was too tame a career, how does kite skiing 4,000km across Antarctica over 3 months sound?
#antarctica #adventure #expedition #science #climatechange
#antarctica #adventure #expedition #science #climatechange
November 2, 2025 at 10:14 AM
If you ever thought science was too tame a career, how does kite skiing 4,000km across Antarctica over 3 months sound?
#antarctica #adventure #expedition #science #climatechange
#antarctica #adventure #expedition #science #climatechange
Reposted by Dr Tom Harris
"An important predictor of future warming is Earth's energy imbalance [..] It is rising much more quickly than predicted by most climate models, possibly because of a darker planet corresponding to a large decrease in Earth's albedo which is near an all-time low "
November 1, 2025 at 12:17 AM
"An important predictor of future warming is Earth's energy imbalance [..] It is rising much more quickly than predicted by most climate models, possibly because of a darker planet corresponding to a large decrease in Earth's albedo which is near an all-time low "
A very good coffee break read on a busy Friday 👇
r3genesis.substack.com/p/200-how-re...
#climatechange #naturebasedsolutions #climatesensitivity #weather #aerosols #geoengineering
r3genesis.substack.com/p/200-how-re...
#climatechange #naturebasedsolutions #climatesensitivity #weather #aerosols #geoengineering
#200 : How Restoring Nature Lowers Climate Sensitivity
How climate sensitivity drifts with land, clouds, oceans, and ice
r3genesis.substack.com
October 31, 2025 at 11:04 AM
A very good coffee break read on a busy Friday 👇
r3genesis.substack.com/p/200-how-re...
#climatechange #naturebasedsolutions #climatesensitivity #weather #aerosols #geoengineering
r3genesis.substack.com/p/200-how-re...
#climatechange #naturebasedsolutions #climatesensitivity #weather #aerosols #geoengineering
Reposted by Dr Tom Harris
The annual 10 new insights in climate science are here!
Perhaps the best way to keep up with climate science news of the past year, made for lay people, policy makers and scientists alike with its different levels of detail: from simple tiles to a journal paper.
10insightsclimate.science#explore
Perhaps the best way to keep up with climate science news of the past year, made for lay people, policy makers and scientists alike with its different levels of detail: from simple tiles to a journal paper.
10insightsclimate.science#explore
10 New Insights in Climate Science
Essential research findings to support decision-making in a critical decade.
10insightsclimate.science
October 31, 2025 at 8:52 AM
The annual 10 new insights in climate science are here!
Perhaps the best way to keep up with climate science news of the past year, made for lay people, policy makers and scientists alike with its different levels of detail: from simple tiles to a journal paper.
10insightsclimate.science#explore
Perhaps the best way to keep up with climate science news of the past year, made for lay people, policy makers and scientists alike with its different levels of detail: from simple tiles to a journal paper.
10insightsclimate.science#explore
Whilst a lot of what Bill Gates wrote in his memo makes a certain amount of sense, his main point that short term emissions reduction is not the priority is based on flawed and out of date data.
I’ve scribbled on his graph below to add a very important line - reality.
#climatechange #acceleration
I’ve scribbled on his graph below to add a very important line - reality.
#climatechange #acceleration
October 30, 2025 at 9:37 AM
Whilst a lot of what Bill Gates wrote in his memo makes a certain amount of sense, his main point that short term emissions reduction is not the priority is based on flawed and out of date data.
I’ve scribbled on his graph below to add a very important line - reality.
#climatechange #acceleration
I’ve scribbled on his graph below to add a very important line - reality.
#climatechange #acceleration
Reposted by Dr Tom Harris
WTF!
It's just scaling up - non-linear increasing moisture transport over a fast warming maritime continent driven by e.g. event based peaking trade winds and tropical storm formation - it's also kind of synchronization of regional feedbacks with the NP MHW playing an increasing role...
It's just scaling up - non-linear increasing moisture transport over a fast warming maritime continent driven by e.g. event based peaking trade winds and tropical storm formation - it's also kind of synchronization of regional feedbacks with the NP MHW playing an increasing role...
🤯 1700 mm of rain in 24 hours 🤯
Previous record 990 mm in 24 hours in 1999
Previous record 990 mm in 24 hours in 1999
Vietnam city sets national record with 1.7 m rain in 24 hours
The central Vietnamese city of Hue recorded more than a metre of rain in a 24-hour period, smashing a national record set over two decades ago, the environment ministry said Tuesday.
www.france24.com
October 30, 2025 at 9:20 AM
WTF!
It's just scaling up - non-linear increasing moisture transport over a fast warming maritime continent driven by e.g. event based peaking trade winds and tropical storm formation - it's also kind of synchronization of regional feedbacks with the NP MHW playing an increasing role...
It's just scaling up - non-linear increasing moisture transport over a fast warming maritime continent driven by e.g. event based peaking trade winds and tropical storm formation - it's also kind of synchronization of regional feedbacks with the NP MHW playing an increasing role...
Reposted by Dr Tom Harris
Rapid warming from rising greenhouse gases + declining aerosol particle pollution are worsening extremes, depleting groundwater & limiting carbon uptake by land - #10ClimateInsights:
10insightsclimate.science
10insightsclimate.science
10 New Insights in Climate Science
Essential research findings to support decision-making in a critical decade.
10insightsclimate.science
October 30, 2025 at 8:12 AM
Rapid warming from rising greenhouse gases + declining aerosol particle pollution are worsening extremes, depleting groundwater & limiting carbon uptake by land - #10ClimateInsights:
10insightsclimate.science
10insightsclimate.science
Whilst headlines quite rightly cover the devastation from Hurricane Melissa, a storm made more deadly through climate change, spare a thought for Vietnam where 1.7 meters (yes 5’7”) of rain fell in 24 hours.
phys.org/news/2025-10...
#climatechange #hurricane #Melissa #Jamaca #Vietnam #flooding
phys.org/news/2025-10...
#climatechange #hurricane #Melissa #Jamaca #Vietnam #flooding
Record Vietnam rains kill four and flood 100,000 homes
Flooding triggered by record heavy rains in central Vietnam this week killed at least four people and inundated more than 100,000 homes, the environment ministry said on Wednesday.
phys.org
October 29, 2025 at 1:48 PM
Whilst headlines quite rightly cover the devastation from Hurricane Melissa, a storm made more deadly through climate change, spare a thought for Vietnam where 1.7 meters (yes 5’7”) of rain fell in 24 hours.
phys.org/news/2025-10...
#climatechange #hurricane #Melissa #Jamaca #Vietnam #flooding
phys.org/news/2025-10...
#climatechange #hurricane #Melissa #Jamaca #Vietnam #flooding
Reposted by Dr Tom Harris
Worried about shutdown of the Atlantic overturning circulation #AMOC? The collapse of the subpolar gyre is a likely step on the way to that and could happen a lot sooner. Not quite as bad as full AMOC shutdown, but could bring major impacts already in 10-20 years. Important study on the mechanism ⬇️!
📢 New paper out!
🌊 We discuss how well mechanisms of variability in the subpolar gyre are represented in climate models, finding that models that do this best are also the models in which abrupt shifts are found 😬.
It's a technical story, so here's a simple overview 🧵
doi.org/10.5194/esd-...
🌊 We discuss how well mechanisms of variability in the subpolar gyre are represented in climate models, finding that models that do this best are also the models in which abrupt shifts are found 😬.
It's a technical story, so here's a simple overview 🧵
doi.org/10.5194/esd-...
Causal mechanisms of subpolar gyre variability in CMIP6 models
Abstract. The subpolar gyre is at risk of crossing a tipping point under future climate change associated with the collapse of deep convection. As such, tipping can have significant climate impacts; i...
doi.org
October 29, 2025 at 12:42 PM
Worried about shutdown of the Atlantic overturning circulation #AMOC? The collapse of the subpolar gyre is a likely step on the way to that and could happen a lot sooner. Not quite as bad as full AMOC shutdown, but could bring major impacts already in 10-20 years. Important study on the mechanism ⬇️!
What was behind the 2024 record jump in atmospheric CO2 concentrations? A massive 20% of human emissions that should have been absorbed by the land and oceans was left in the atmosphere.
drtomharris.substack.com/p/are-earths...
#climatechange #co2 #emissions #carbonsinks #wildfires #enso #oceans
drtomharris.substack.com/p/are-earths...
#climatechange #co2 #emissions #carbonsinks #wildfires #enso #oceans
Are Earth’s natural carbon sinks collapsing?
Atmospheric CO2 levels jumping a record 3.5ppm in 2024, while human emissions remained largely constant. This suggests reduced carbon absorption by land and ocean sinks which will accelerate warming.
drtomharris.substack.com
October 29, 2025 at 9:58 AM
What was behind the 2024 record jump in atmospheric CO2 concentrations? A massive 20% of human emissions that should have been absorbed by the land and oceans was left in the atmosphere.
drtomharris.substack.com/p/are-earths...
#climatechange #co2 #emissions #carbonsinks #wildfires #enso #oceans
drtomharris.substack.com/p/are-earths...
#climatechange #co2 #emissions #carbonsinks #wildfires #enso #oceans
The construction industry’s carbon emissions are set to double by 2050, emitting enough CO2 to breach 2ºC by 2040 on their own, unless major changes are instigated.
October 28, 2025 at 11:45 AM
The construction industry’s carbon emissions are set to double by 2050, emitting enough CO2 to breach 2ºC by 2040 on their own, unless major changes are instigated.
Reposted by Dr Tom Harris
For understanding climate change impacts to tropical cyclones in near-real time, explore our new attribution pages unique to each storm from @climatecentral.org: www.climatecentral.org/tropical-cyc...
"Climate change made the ocean temperatures along Melissa's path 500 to 700 times more likely."
"Climate change made the ocean temperatures along Melissa's path 500 to 700 times more likely."
October 27, 2025 at 12:27 AM
For understanding climate change impacts to tropical cyclones in near-real time, explore our new attribution pages unique to each storm from @climatecentral.org: www.climatecentral.org/tropical-cyc...
"Climate change made the ocean temperatures along Melissa's path 500 to 700 times more likely."
"Climate change made the ocean temperatures along Melissa's path 500 to 700 times more likely."
Reposted by Dr Tom Harris
📣 The "U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters" data is back today through @climatecentral.org! And more soon!
➡️ Explore our new interactive website at www.climatecentral.org/climate-serv..., which is now updated through the first half of 2025 & totaling over $101 billion from 14 events.
➡️ Explore our new interactive website at www.climatecentral.org/climate-serv..., which is now updated through the first half of 2025 & totaling over $101 billion from 14 events.
October 22, 2025 at 2:06 PM
📣 The "U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters" data is back today through @climatecentral.org! And more soon!
➡️ Explore our new interactive website at www.climatecentral.org/climate-serv..., which is now updated through the first half of 2025 & totaling over $101 billion from 14 events.
➡️ Explore our new interactive website at www.climatecentral.org/climate-serv..., which is now updated through the first half of 2025 & totaling over $101 billion from 14 events.
Ten years ago the world agreed to limit temperatures to 2ºC by 2100, so it’s a little alarming to attend a conference discussing if its even possible to prevent breaching that limit by 2040.
drtomharris.substack.com/p/conference...
#climatechange #mitigation #impacts #tippingpoints #geoengineering
drtomharris.substack.com/p/conference...
#climatechange #mitigation #impacts #tippingpoints #geoengineering
Conference Report: The Global Heating Emergency
Ten years ago the world agreed to limit temperatures to 2ºC by 2100, so it’s a little alarming to attend a conference discussing if its even possible to prevent breaching that limit by 2040.
drtomharris.substack.com
October 22, 2025 at 8:24 AM
Ten years ago the world agreed to limit temperatures to 2ºC by 2100, so it’s a little alarming to attend a conference discussing if its even possible to prevent breaching that limit by 2040.
drtomharris.substack.com/p/conference...
#climatechange #mitigation #impacts #tippingpoints #geoengineering
drtomharris.substack.com/p/conference...
#climatechange #mitigation #impacts #tippingpoints #geoengineering
This week the WMO confirmed the 2024 atmospheric CO2 level and annual rise data. You may have seen headlines about it setting new records and concern about the planet’s ability to absorb our emissions. Here is why we should be extremely worried 👇🧵
October 17, 2025 at 11:18 AM
This week the WMO confirmed the 2024 atmospheric CO2 level and annual rise data. You may have seen headlines about it setting new records and concern about the planet’s ability to absorb our emissions. Here is why we should be extremely worried 👇🧵
Last month a paper on the limited availability of safe geological storage for CO2 got a lot of attention. A common comment was that it only looked at sedimentary rock, not basalt. A new study from Ireland provides an example of the basalt opportunity that exists alongside sedimentary storage.
October 16, 2025 at 12:40 PM
Last month a paper on the limited availability of safe geological storage for CO2 got a lot of attention. A common comment was that it only looked at sedimentary rock, not basalt. A new study from Ireland provides an example of the basalt opportunity that exists alongside sedimentary storage.
Well worth watching 👇
NEW EPISODE: Will we survive climate change?
Join our expert panellists as they answer your questions about curbing rising global temperatures and what life could be like in a warmer world.
Listen on your favourite podcast platform: www.lnk.to/AQOSClimateBB
Join our expert panellists as they answer your questions about curbing rising global temperatures and what life could be like in a warmer world.
Listen on your favourite podcast platform: www.lnk.to/AQOSClimateBB
October 15, 2025 at 10:07 AM
Well worth watching 👇
Iron is the limiting nutrient at the very base of the ocean food web. It enables photosynthesis, is essential for all marine life and enables significant carbon capture. Fisheries, whaling and pollution reduce the available iron for these vital processes.
drtomharris.substack.com/p/paying-the...
drtomharris.substack.com/p/paying-the...
Paying the Iron Price
Iron is a critical part of life in the oceans. It's a limiting nutrient for primary production which sits at the base of the food chain and absorbs CO2 from the atmosphere. Should we be adding more?
drtomharris.substack.com
October 15, 2025 at 8:35 AM
Iron is the limiting nutrient at the very base of the ocean food web. It enables photosynthesis, is essential for all marine life and enables significant carbon capture. Fisheries, whaling and pollution reduce the available iron for these vital processes.
drtomharris.substack.com/p/paying-the...
drtomharris.substack.com/p/paying-the...
Coral reefs have passed their tipping point and new evidence suggests the Amazon will not be far behind. 2024 saw more forest destroyed through wildfires than even deforestation, accelerating the degradation of this vital habitat.
doi.org/10.5194/bg-2...
#climatechange #tippingpoint #amazon
doi.org/10.5194/bg-2...
#climatechange #tippingpoint #amazon
Extensive fire-driven degradation in 2024 marks worst Amazon forest disturbance in over 2 decades
Abstract. The Amazon rainforest, historically fire-resistant, is experiencing an alarming increase in wildfires due to climate extremes and human activity. The 2023–2024 drought, surpassing previous r...
doi.org
October 14, 2025 at 8:18 AM
Coral reefs have passed their tipping point and new evidence suggests the Amazon will not be far behind. 2024 saw more forest destroyed through wildfires than even deforestation, accelerating the degradation of this vital habitat.
doi.org/10.5194/bg-2...
#climatechange #tippingpoint #amazon
doi.org/10.5194/bg-2...
#climatechange #tippingpoint #amazon