Dr Tom Harris
@drtomharris.bsky.social
UK based Climate Science Writer & Advocate writing on Substack under Climate Uncovered.
Soon to be retired Management Consultant specialising in Government funded R&D.
Soon to be retired Management Consultant specialising in Government funded R&D.
The target may have been breached, but the Agreement remains a moral and legal requirement.
I'm not saying I believe an overshoot recovery is possible, but delaying every 10th of a degree at the top end matters.
The agreement also legitimises SRM research and CDR.
I'm not saying I believe an overshoot recovery is possible, but delaying every 10th of a degree at the top end matters.
The agreement also legitimises SRM research and CDR.
November 11, 2025 at 9:01 AM
The target may have been breached, but the Agreement remains a moral and legal requirement.
I'm not saying I believe an overshoot recovery is possible, but delaying every 10th of a degree at the top end matters.
The agreement also legitimises SRM research and CDR.
I'm not saying I believe an overshoot recovery is possible, but delaying every 10th of a degree at the top end matters.
The agreement also legitimises SRM research and CDR.
Interesting. My copy is the embargoed copy that was available to the press early last week ahead of the release on Thursday. They must have edited it in between - my apologies.
November 10, 2025 at 8:46 AM
Interesting. My copy is the embargoed copy that was available to the press early last week ahead of the release on Thursday. They must have edited it in between - my apologies.
It's in the caption of the graph
November 9, 2025 at 9:51 AM
It's in the caption of the graph
I don’t want to be a downer, but perhaps it might be useful to have a study that admits the best possible outcome we can hope for and compare that to the disaster of business as usual, rather than letting people think it will all be OK in the end.
What do you think?
What do you think?
November 8, 2025 at 4:28 PM
I don’t want to be a downer, but perhaps it might be useful to have a study that admits the best possible outcome we can hope for and compare that to the disaster of business as usual, rather than letting people think it will all be OK in the end.
What do you think?
What do you think?
They also don’t refer to the doubling of Earth’s Energy Imbalance in the last 2 decades.
November 8, 2025 at 4:28 PM
They also don’t refer to the doubling of Earth’s Energy Imbalance in the last 2 decades.
They also don’t take into account the recent reductions in land and ocean sinks which could limit the ability to turn the corner on warming even with net zero and some carbon capture. Permafrost melt at 3ºC will eat all of the proposed carbon capture trough increased natural emissions for example.
November 8, 2025 at 4:28 PM
They also don’t take into account the recent reductions in land and ocean sinks which could limit the ability to turn the corner on warming even with net zero and some carbon capture. Permafrost melt at 3ºC will eat all of the proposed carbon capture trough increased natural emissions for example.
Whilst its definitely what we should be doing, I can’t help think it is still unrealistic. The report does state that they used the AR6 temperature pipeline and that recent aerosol and albedo reduction could increase these estimates, but these are likely to have very significant consequences.
November 8, 2025 at 4:28 PM
Whilst its definitely what we should be doing, I can’t help think it is still unrealistic. The report does state that they used the AR6 temperature pipeline and that recent aerosol and albedo reduction could increase these estimates, but these are likely to have very significant consequences.
It is also supported by carbon capture ramping up to 5 GtCO2 per year by 2050 plus a further 2 GtCO2 per year from land use improvements.
Faster action on methane is also critical with reduction in emissions of 20% by 2030 and 32% by 2035.
Faster action on methane is also critical with reduction in emissions of 20% by 2030 and 32% by 2035.
November 8, 2025 at 4:28 PM
It is also supported by carbon capture ramping up to 5 GtCO2 per year by 2050 plus a further 2 GtCO2 per year from land use improvements.
Faster action on methane is also critical with reduction in emissions of 20% by 2030 and 32% by 2035.
Faster action on methane is also critical with reduction in emissions of 20% by 2030 and 32% by 2035.
The new scenario starts from the situation at the end of 2025. It claims to firstly halt further warming in 15 to 20 years. The overshoot would last 40 years and peak at 1.7ºC before declining to 1.2ºC. It relies of net zero CO2 by 2050 and net zero GHG by 2060.
November 8, 2025 at 4:28 PM
The new scenario starts from the situation at the end of 2025. It claims to firstly halt further warming in 15 to 20 years. The overshoot would last 40 years and peak at 1.7ºC before declining to 1.2ºC. It relies of net zero CO2 by 2050 and net zero GHG by 2060.
They recognise that due to insufficient action, the world will ‘overshoot’ 1.5ºC in the few years. That doesn’t mean the Paris Agreement is dead though. It means more determined action is needed to limit the overshoot and return below 1.5ºC by 2100.
climateanalytics.org/publications...
climateanalytics.org/publications...
Rescuing 1.5°C: new evidence on the highest possible ambition to…
This study shows that, even after years of insufficient action, the world can still return to well below 1.5°C of warming this century if countries pursue the “highest possible ambition” in climate ac...
climateanalytics.org
November 8, 2025 at 4:28 PM
They recognise that due to insufficient action, the world will ‘overshoot’ 1.5ºC in the few years. That doesn’t mean the Paris Agreement is dead though. It means more determined action is needed to limit the overshoot and return below 1.5ºC by 2100.
climateanalytics.org/publications...
climateanalytics.org/publications...
This one covers water losses which will have an impact on agriculture:
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
This one food spikes:
iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
And this graphic of the UK in 50 odd years might be useful
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
This one food spikes:
iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
And this graphic of the UK in 50 odd years might be useful
November 8, 2025 at 3:44 PM
This one covers water losses which will have an impact on agriculture:
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
This one food spikes:
iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
And this graphic of the UK in 50 odd years might be useful
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
This one food spikes:
iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
And this graphic of the UK in 50 odd years might be useful
We won't have to wait until full collapse for the impacts to ramp up, it's not a binary switch. If you're younger than 60 this will affect you.
November 8, 2025 at 9:05 AM
We won't have to wait until full collapse for the impacts to ramp up, it's not a binary switch. If you're younger than 60 this will affect you.
This is hugely significant. The Southern Ocean is 40% of the ocean sink and is also showing stress in the summer months. Lack of sea ice feedback.
November 8, 2025 at 8:57 AM
This is hugely significant. The Southern Ocean is 40% of the ocean sink and is also showing stress in the summer months. Lack of sea ice feedback.
If not, and I know my country couldn’t cope, there is still time, barely, to delay the inevitable, but we have to act decisively and courageously now. We have to slash emissions, there is no alternative.
The rest of the report is equally incisive and I'll be posting a full review next week.
The rest of the report is equally incisive and I'll be posting a full review next week.
November 7, 2025 at 9:28 AM
If not, and I know my country couldn’t cope, there is still time, barely, to delay the inevitable, but we have to act decisively and courageously now. We have to slash emissions, there is no alternative.
The rest of the report is equally incisive and I'll be posting a full review next week.
The rest of the report is equally incisive and I'll be posting a full review next week.
If you live in the UK, Europe, East Coast US or Asia, how will your life be affected?
😧Would you be flooded out?
🚋Would your public transport cope?
🏠Would your house be warm in winter and cool in summer?
💰Could you afford massive food inflation?
😧Would you be flooded out?
🚋Would your public transport cope?
🏠Would your house be warm in winter and cool in summer?
💰Could you afford massive food inflation?
November 7, 2025 at 9:28 AM
If you live in the UK, Europe, East Coast US or Asia, how will your life be affected?
😧Would you be flooded out?
🚋Would your public transport cope?
🏠Would your house be warm in winter and cool in summer?
💰Could you afford massive food inflation?
😧Would you be flooded out?
🚋Would your public transport cope?
🏠Would your house be warm in winter and cool in summer?
💰Could you afford massive food inflation?
This matters because it will cause:
🥶Glacial winter temperatures in northern Europe
🥵Even hotter and dryer summers
🌊Additional 1 m rapid sea level rise in the North Atlantic
🌪️Incredible storms across Europe
🌧️A southward shift in global rain patters away from crop production areas
😱And more…
🥶Glacial winter temperatures in northern Europe
🥵Even hotter and dryer summers
🌊Additional 1 m rapid sea level rise in the North Atlantic
🌪️Incredible storms across Europe
🌧️A southward shift in global rain patters away from crop production areas
😱And more…
November 7, 2025 at 9:28 AM
This matters because it will cause:
🥶Glacial winter temperatures in northern Europe
🥵Even hotter and dryer summers
🌊Additional 1 m rapid sea level rise in the North Atlantic
🌪️Incredible storms across Europe
🌧️A southward shift in global rain patters away from crop production areas
😱And more…
🥶Glacial winter temperatures in northern Europe
🥵Even hotter and dryer summers
🌊Additional 1 m rapid sea level rise in the North Atlantic
🌪️Incredible storms across Europe
🌧️A southward shift in global rain patters away from crop production areas
😱And more…
Less because they kill people (8 million a year), but reductions are accelerating global warming since they reflect sunlight back into space.
The Faustian Bargain of burning fossil fuels was that the smog masked the CO2 warming. Now we have to pay the price.
The Faustian Bargain of burning fossil fuels was that the smog masked the CO2 warming. Now we have to pay the price.
November 6, 2025 at 8:23 AM
Less because they kill people (8 million a year), but reductions are accelerating global warming since they reflect sunlight back into space.
The Faustian Bargain of burning fossil fuels was that the smog masked the CO2 warming. Now we have to pay the price.
The Faustian Bargain of burning fossil fuels was that the smog masked the CO2 warming. Now we have to pay the price.
To improve the accuracy of predictions, scientists need to capture the true relationship between aerosols, clouds and heat from the sun in their models. It also means that country’s NDC and adaptation plans need to be much more aggressive and ambitious to avoid the worst effects of climate change.
November 5, 2025 at 2:07 PM
To improve the accuracy of predictions, scientists need to capture the true relationship between aerosols, clouds and heat from the sun in their models. It also means that country’s NDC and adaptation plans need to be much more aggressive and ambitious to avoid the worst effects of climate change.
Aerosol levels will likely continue to fall as clean energy expands. Current climate models tend to underestimate their cooling effect. Recent acceleration in heating shows ECS is much higher than hoped, meaning warming will happen faster than many expect - as is being witnessed currently.
November 5, 2025 at 2:07 PM
Aerosol levels will likely continue to fall as clean energy expands. Current climate models tend to underestimate their cooling effect. Recent acceleration in heating shows ECS is much higher than hoped, meaning warming will happen faster than many expect - as is being witnessed currently.
Aerosol emissions from the burning of fossil fuels and biomass help cloud formation, brightness and duration. As emissions are lowered to clean the air, more of the warming through greenhouse gases is revealed. Aerosol reductions are important though as they kill about 8 million people every year.
November 5, 2025 at 2:07 PM
Aerosol emissions from the burning of fossil fuels and biomass help cloud formation, brightness and duration. As emissions are lowered to clean the air, more of the warming through greenhouse gases is revealed. Aerosol reductions are important though as they kill about 8 million people every year.
The lower reflectiveness, or albedo, of marine clouds is allowing more solar radiation through to warm the ocean surface, accelerating warming and accelerating climate change.
November 5, 2025 at 2:07 PM
The lower reflectiveness, or albedo, of marine clouds is allowing more solar radiation through to warm the ocean surface, accelerating warming and accelerating climate change.
If we are careful, A.I. can be a positive driver for climate change mitigation and adaptation.
By embedding ethical principles into every stage of development, we can ensure A.I. serves humanity and the environment, not just profit, and becomes a trusted partner in shaping a liveable future.
By embedding ethical principles into every stage of development, we can ensure A.I. serves humanity and the environment, not just profit, and becomes a trusted partner in shaping a liveable future.
November 5, 2025 at 9:31 AM
If we are careful, A.I. can be a positive driver for climate change mitigation and adaptation.
By embedding ethical principles into every stage of development, we can ensure A.I. serves humanity and the environment, not just profit, and becomes a trusted partner in shaping a liveable future.
By embedding ethical principles into every stage of development, we can ensure A.I. serves humanity and the environment, not just profit, and becomes a trusted partner in shaping a liveable future.