Julius Garbe
@juliusgarbe.github.io
Antarctica Director @iccinet.bsky.social | PhD candidate @pik-potsdam.bsky.social. #IceSheets, #SeaLevelRise, Earth System #Resilience & #TippingPoints. Focus on #AntarcticIceSheet stability.
🌐 https://juliusgarbe.github.io
🌐 https://juliusgarbe.github.io
Pinned
Julius Garbe
@juliusgarbe.github.io
· Jun 3
Scientists say next few years vital to securing the future of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet
03.06.2025 – Collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet could be triggered with very little ocean warming above present-day, leading to a devastating four metres of global sea level rise to play out ove...
www.pik-potsdam.de
🚨📢 New Publication Alert
Our new study shows that the #WestAntarctic #IceSheet repeatedly crossed #TippingPoint thresholds in the past, with important implications for its future stability.
Press release: www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/late...
Study: www.nature.com/articles/s43...
🌊🧊⚒️🧪🥼
Our new study shows that the #WestAntarctic #IceSheet repeatedly crossed #TippingPoint thresholds in the past, with important implications for its future stability.
Press release: www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/late...
Study: www.nature.com/articles/s43...
🌊🧊⚒️🧪🥼
Reposted by Julius Garbe
10 years after the Paris Agreement, the international community has come together at #COP30 to once again negotiate global climate action. 10 years ago, we published a paper on why the right #climate target was agreed in Paris. Still true. Because the science does not change. #ScienceIsNotNegotiable
November 11, 2025 at 7:53 PM
10 years after the Paris Agreement, the international community has come together at #COP30 to once again negotiate global climate action. 10 years ago, we published a paper on why the right #climate target was agreed in Paris. Still true. Because the science does not change. #ScienceIsNotNegotiable
Reposted by Julius Garbe
After years of political failure, the world can still rescue 1.5°C – if countries pursue the “highest possible ambition”, starting now.
New report from Climate Analytics and @pik-potsdam.bsky.social shows how it’s possible.
Read more: climateanalytics.org/publications...
New report from Climate Analytics and @pik-potsdam.bsky.social shows how it’s possible.
Read more: climateanalytics.org/publications...
Rescuing 1.5°C: new evidence on the highest possible ambition to…
This study shows that, even after years of insufficient action, the world can still return to well below 1.5°C of warming this century if countries pursue the “highest possible ambition” in climate ac...
climateanalytics.org
November 6, 2025 at 11:49 AM
After years of political failure, the world can still rescue 1.5°C – if countries pursue the “highest possible ambition”, starting now.
New report from Climate Analytics and @pik-potsdam.bsky.social shows how it’s possible.
Read more: climateanalytics.org/publications...
New report from Climate Analytics and @pik-potsdam.bsky.social shows how it’s possible.
Read more: climateanalytics.org/publications...
Reposted by Julius Garbe
🌊🧊🇦🇶
I am happy and proud to present our #platformist team effort out in @nature.com!
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
We examine if, when, and why #Antarctic #ice shelves will no longer be viable, at the latest, due to changes in #atmosphere and #ocean conditions.
A little 🧵 for the experts...
1/7
I am happy and proud to present our #platformist team effort out in @nature.com!
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
We examine if, when, and why #Antarctic #ice shelves will no longer be viable, at the latest, due to changes in #atmosphere and #ocean conditions.
A little 🧵 for the experts...
1/7
Ocean warming threatens the viability of 60% of Antarctic ice shelves - Nature
The viability of Antarctic ice shelves under low rates and high rates of global warming is modelled to estimate when it will become unfeasible for the ice shelves to maintain their present-day shape.
www.nature.com
October 29, 2025 at 4:41 PM
🌊🧊🇦🇶
I am happy and proud to present our #platformist team effort out in @nature.com!
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
We examine if, when, and why #Antarctic #ice shelves will no longer be viable, at the latest, due to changes in #atmosphere and #ocean conditions.
A little 🧵 for the experts...
1/7
I am happy and proud to present our #platformist team effort out in @nature.com!
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
We examine if, when, and why #Antarctic #ice shelves will no longer be viable, at the latest, due to changes in #atmosphere and #ocean conditions.
A little 🧵 for the experts...
1/7
Reposted by Julius Garbe
📢 New paper out!
🌊 We discuss how well mechanisms of variability in the subpolar gyre are represented in climate models, finding that models that do this best are also the models in which abrupt shifts are found 😬.
It's a technical story, so here's a simple overview 🧵
doi.org/10.5194/esd-...
🌊 We discuss how well mechanisms of variability in the subpolar gyre are represented in climate models, finding that models that do this best are also the models in which abrupt shifts are found 😬.
It's a technical story, so here's a simple overview 🧵
doi.org/10.5194/esd-...
Causal mechanisms of subpolar gyre variability in CMIP6 models
Abstract. The subpolar gyre is at risk of crossing a tipping point under future climate change associated with the collapse of deep convection. As such, tipping can have significant climate impacts; i...
doi.org
October 28, 2025 at 12:27 PM
📢 New paper out!
🌊 We discuss how well mechanisms of variability in the subpolar gyre are represented in climate models, finding that models that do this best are also the models in which abrupt shifts are found 😬.
It's a technical story, so here's a simple overview 🧵
doi.org/10.5194/esd-...
🌊 We discuss how well mechanisms of variability in the subpolar gyre are represented in climate models, finding that models that do this best are also the models in which abrupt shifts are found 😬.
It's a technical story, so here's a simple overview 🧵
doi.org/10.5194/esd-...
Reposted by Julius Garbe
1. We’re living through a very hot year (again). Right now, 2025 looks like it could come in as the 2nd or 3rd hottest year on record
October 24, 2025 at 2:50 PM
1. We’re living through a very hot year (again). Right now, 2025 looks like it could come in as the 2nd or 3rd hottest year on record
Reposted by Julius Garbe
Really important paper led by my @iiasa.ac.at colleague Alex Nauels www.nature.com/articles/s41...
“The difference between decisive climate action today and continued high emissions is not just measured in degrees of warming but also in meters of sea-level rise” 👏👏👏
“The difference between decisive climate action today and continued high emissions is not just measured in degrees of warming but also in meters of sea-level rise” 👏👏👏
Multi-century global and regional sea-level rise commitments from cumulative greenhouse gas emissions in the coming decades - Nature Climate Change
It is important to understand how much long-term sea-level rise is already committed due to historical and near-term emissions. Here the authors use a modelling framework to show how decisions on glob...
www.nature.com
October 24, 2025 at 10:40 AM
Really important paper led by my @iiasa.ac.at colleague Alex Nauels www.nature.com/articles/s41...
“The difference between decisive climate action today and continued high emissions is not just measured in degrees of warming but also in meters of sea-level rise” 👏👏👏
“The difference between decisive climate action today and continued high emissions is not just measured in degrees of warming but also in meters of sea-level rise” 👏👏👏
Reposted by Julius Garbe
New study by Falkena et al. shows that most climate models
don’t capture the established key mechanism that can destabilize the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. Those models that get it predict abrupt subpolar gyre changes in coming decades 😳.
@swinda.bsky.social
esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/...
don’t capture the established key mechanism that can destabilize the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. Those models that get it predict abrupt subpolar gyre changes in coming decades 😳.
@swinda.bsky.social
esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/...
October 23, 2025 at 10:28 AM
New study by Falkena et al. shows that most climate models
don’t capture the established key mechanism that can destabilize the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. Those models that get it predict abrupt subpolar gyre changes in coming decades 😳.
@swinda.bsky.social
esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/...
don’t capture the established key mechanism that can destabilize the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. Those models that get it predict abrupt subpolar gyre changes in coming decades 😳.
@swinda.bsky.social
esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/...
Reposted by Julius Garbe
I was interviewed for this great piece about sea level rise.
Solid reporting here on the scientific controversy, but I like that Evan ended with my bigger picture quote that a lot of the controversy doesn't really matter because by 2100, we will be talking about a radically different coastline.
Solid reporting here on the scientific controversy, but I like that Evan ended with my bigger picture quote that a lot of the controversy doesn't really matter because by 2100, we will be talking about a radically different coastline.
How Soon Will the Seas Rise? | Quanta Magazine
The uniquely vulnerable West Antarctic Ice Sheet holds enough water to raise global sea levels by 5 meters. But when that will happen — and how fast — is anything but settled.
www.quantamagazine.org
October 20, 2025 at 8:59 PM
I was interviewed for this great piece about sea level rise.
Solid reporting here on the scientific controversy, but I like that Evan ended with my bigger picture quote that a lot of the controversy doesn't really matter because by 2100, we will be talking about a radically different coastline.
Solid reporting here on the scientific controversy, but I like that Evan ended with my bigger picture quote that a lot of the controversy doesn't really matter because by 2100, we will be talking about a radically different coastline.
Reposted by Julius Garbe
🌡️ The #C3S Climate Pulse app makes temperature data easy for everyone – compare decades, explore trends, zoom into regions and download or share your findings with a click. Tracking global surface air and sea temperatures has never been easier.
October 14, 2025 at 9:56 AM
🌡️ The #C3S Climate Pulse app makes temperature data easy for everyone – compare decades, explore trends, zoom into regions and download or share your findings with a click. Tracking global surface air and sea temperatures has never been easier.
Reposted by Julius Garbe
160 scientists, 23 countries, 1 report: The Global Tipping Points Report 2025, together with @exeter.ac.uk, highlights mounting risks across Earth’s systems, from melting glaciers & ice fields to slowing ocean currents, ice sheets & rainforests under pressure. Watch now👇
👉global-tipping-points.org
👉global-tipping-points.org
October 13, 2025 at 3:01 PM
160 scientists, 23 countries, 1 report: The Global Tipping Points Report 2025, together with @exeter.ac.uk, highlights mounting risks across Earth’s systems, from melting glaciers & ice fields to slowing ocean currents, ice sheets & rainforests under pressure. Watch now👇
👉global-tipping-points.org
👉global-tipping-points.org
Reposted by Julius Garbe
Bleaching, Melting, Slowing: New Global Tipping Points report tracks growing risks of Earth system tipping points. It highlights mounting risks, from melting glaciers, ice fields to slowing ocean currents, ice sheets & rainforests under pressure.
www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/late...
www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/late...
October 13, 2025 at 7:49 AM
Bleaching, Melting, Slowing: New Global Tipping Points report tracks growing risks of Earth system tipping points. It highlights mounting risks, from melting glaciers, ice fields to slowing ocean currents, ice sheets & rainforests under pressure.
www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/late...
www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/late...
📢 OUT NOW: Global Tipping Points Report 2025
In this new report, we provide a check on the status of critical Earth system #TippingPoints and opportunities in #PositiveTippingPoints across sectors.
➡️ Full report: global-tipping-points.org
#GTPR2025 #COP30 @exeter.ac.uk @pik-potsdam.bsky.social
In this new report, we provide a check on the status of critical Earth system #TippingPoints and opportunities in #PositiveTippingPoints across sectors.
➡️ Full report: global-tipping-points.org
#GTPR2025 #COP30 @exeter.ac.uk @pik-potsdam.bsky.social
Global Tipping Points | understanding risks & their potential impact
Harmful tipping points in the natural world threaten humanity by disrupting life support systems and societal stability.
global-tipping-points.org
October 13, 2025 at 8:14 AM
📢 OUT NOW: Global Tipping Points Report 2025
In this new report, we provide a check on the status of critical Earth system #TippingPoints and opportunities in #PositiveTippingPoints across sectors.
➡️ Full report: global-tipping-points.org
#GTPR2025 #COP30 @exeter.ac.uk @pik-potsdam.bsky.social
In this new report, we provide a check on the status of critical Earth system #TippingPoints and opportunities in #PositiveTippingPoints across sectors.
➡️ Full report: global-tipping-points.org
#GTPR2025 #COP30 @exeter.ac.uk @pik-potsdam.bsky.social
Reposted by Julius Garbe
🎬 And that’s a wrap on the #OvershootConference!
A huge thank you to our Scientific Steering Committee, Organizing Committee, and every single speaker and participant whose insights, questions, and collaboration made this event such a success.
A huge thank you to our Scientific Steering Committee, Organizing Committee, and every single speaker and participant whose insights, questions, and collaboration made this event such a success.
October 2, 2025 at 5:52 PM
🎬 And that’s a wrap on the #OvershootConference!
A huge thank you to our Scientific Steering Committee, Organizing Committee, and every single speaker and participant whose insights, questions, and collaboration made this event such a success.
A huge thank you to our Scientific Steering Committee, Organizing Committee, and every single speaker and participant whose insights, questions, and collaboration made this event such a success.
Reposted by Julius Garbe
🧵3/5
New peer-reviewed work using 800,000-yr simulations finds hysteresis and tipping thresholds: small additional warming could let West Antarctica add meters to global sea levels. Tiny temp changes, huge consequences. 🌎
New peer-reviewed work using 800,000-yr simulations finds hysteresis and tipping thresholds: small additional warming could let West Antarctica add meters to global sea levels. Tiny temp changes, huge consequences. 🌎
Antarctic Ice Sheet tipping in the last 800,000 years warns of future ice loss - Communications Earth & Environment
The Antarctic Ice Sheet exhibits hysteresis and irreversible ice loss, with West Antarctic collapse contributing over 4 m of sea-level rise even under minimal additional warming, according to 800,000-year transient and equilibrium simulations using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model.
www.nature.com
October 2, 2025 at 2:59 PM
🧵3/5
New peer-reviewed work using 800,000-yr simulations finds hysteresis and tipping thresholds: small additional warming could let West Antarctica add meters to global sea levels. Tiny temp changes, huge consequences. 🌎
New peer-reviewed work using 800,000-yr simulations finds hysteresis and tipping thresholds: small additional warming could let West Antarctica add meters to global sea levels. Tiny temp changes, huge consequences. 🌎
Reposted by Julius Garbe
Simulations covering 800,000 years show that a slight deep-ocean warming can trigger West #Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse, raising sea level by about 4 metres.
Today’s temperatures are already at this threshold. Future irreversible ice sheet loss may occur with little/no further climate warming.
Today’s temperatures are already at this threshold. Future irreversible ice sheet loss may occur with little/no further climate warming.
Antarctic Ice Sheet tipping in the last 800,000 years warns of future ice loss - Communications Earth & Environment
The Antarctic Ice Sheet exhibits hysteresis and irreversible ice loss, with West Antarctic collapse contributing over 4 m of sea-level rise even under minimal additional warming, according to 800,000-...
www.nature.com
September 30, 2025 at 4:14 PM
Simulations covering 800,000 years show that a slight deep-ocean warming can trigger West #Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse, raising sea level by about 4 metres.
Today’s temperatures are already at this threshold. Future irreversible ice sheet loss may occur with little/no further climate warming.
Today’s temperatures are already at this threshold. Future irreversible ice sheet loss may occur with little/no further climate warming.
Reposted by Julius Garbe
🌍🌡️I'm excited to share my latest editorial for @commsearth.nature.com on how to avoid Earth System tipping points and trigger more positive change.
Thanks to @exeter.ac.uk for organising two vibrant events on the topic
Read more 👉 www.nature.com/articles/s43...
Thanks to @exeter.ac.uk for organising two vibrant events on the topic
Read more 👉 www.nature.com/articles/s43...
Pathways for prevention of cascading tipping points - Communications Earth & Environment
Strong governance, accelerated action, and empowered communities are essential to avoid cascading Earth system tipping points and achieve lasting, transformative change.
www.nature.com
September 23, 2025 at 8:22 PM
🌍🌡️I'm excited to share my latest editorial for @commsearth.nature.com on how to avoid Earth System tipping points and trigger more positive change.
Thanks to @exeter.ac.uk for organising two vibrant events on the topic
Read more 👉 www.nature.com/articles/s43...
Thanks to @exeter.ac.uk for organising two vibrant events on the topic
Read more 👉 www.nature.com/articles/s43...
Reposted by Julius Garbe
In a UN speech today, President Trump said that "all of these [climate] predictions were wrong".
Back in 2019 I led a research effort to digitize old climate model projections and assess how well they did. Turns out they got future warming pretty spot on!
Back in 2019 I led a research effort to digitize old climate model projections and assess how well they did. Turns out they got future warming pretty spot on!
September 23, 2025 at 5:01 PM
In a UN speech today, President Trump said that "all of these [climate] predictions were wrong".
Back in 2019 I led a research effort to digitize old climate model projections and assess how well they did. Turns out they got future warming pretty spot on!
Back in 2019 I led a research effort to digitize old climate model projections and assess how well they did. Turns out they got future warming pretty spot on!
Reposted by Julius Garbe
Antarctic Sea Ice loss could be a tipping point after all. A new paper investigating the likely return of sea ice following CO2 removal shows that under some circumstances, the sea ice does not return.
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
#antarctica #seaice #tippingpoint #stratification
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
#antarctica #seaice #tippingpoint #stratification
The Reversibility of Antarctic Sea Ice Loss Under CO2 Removal Scenarios
We assess the reversibility of Antarctic sea ice loss through Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 experiments and quantify the inter-model differences Inter-model differences in sea ice...
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
September 23, 2025 at 9:32 AM
Antarctic Sea Ice loss could be a tipping point after all. A new paper investigating the likely return of sea ice following CO2 removal shows that under some circumstances, the sea ice does not return.
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
#antarctica #seaice #tippingpoint #stratification
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
#antarctica #seaice #tippingpoint #stratification
Reposted by Julius Garbe
Abrupt and alarming changes in the icy Antarctic region call for urgent measures. We have the means to cut emissions and limit further warming. Geoengineering projects only raise false hopes and divert resources.
Polar warming: Abrupt changes in Antarctic call for emissions cuts not geoengineering
The polar regions are undergoing alarming climate changes, particularly in Antarctica, where ice loss is accelerating. A study warns that geoengineering solutions are unlikely to be effective, distracting from essential emission reduction efforts. Immediate, evidence-based actions are necessary to combat climate change and achieve net-zero emissions to stabilize global temperatures.
iceblog.org
September 22, 2025 at 9:24 AM
Abrupt and alarming changes in the icy Antarctic region call for urgent measures. We have the means to cut emissions and limit further warming. Geoengineering projects only raise false hopes and divert resources.
Reposted by Julius Garbe
Vast ice sheets in the polar regions are collapsing as global warming increases - driven by increasing greenhouse gas emissions. Could geoengineering refreeze these areas? Alas, this is a fantasy, and perhaps a dangerous one. My latest for Technosphere Earth.
www.technosphere.earth/new-report-c...
www.technosphere.earth/new-report-c...
New report concludes polar geoengineering is dangerous
But curiosity-driven stupidity may take us there
www.technosphere.earth
September 15, 2025 at 8:18 AM
Vast ice sheets in the polar regions are collapsing as global warming increases - driven by increasing greenhouse gas emissions. Could geoengineering refreeze these areas? Alas, this is a fantasy, and perhaps a dangerous one. My latest for Technosphere Earth.
www.technosphere.earth/new-report-c...
www.technosphere.earth/new-report-c...
Reposted by Julius Garbe
We need to talk about geoengineering ⚠️
In a rapidly warming world with looming net zero due dates, there's growing polarised debate about whether we should intervene in Earth’s natural systems.
This is a thread about the state of polar geoengineering, and how we should be talking about it ⬇️
🧵 1/6
In a rapidly warming world with looming net zero due dates, there's growing polarised debate about whether we should intervene in Earth’s natural systems.
This is a thread about the state of polar geoengineering, and how we should be talking about it ⬇️
🧵 1/6
September 10, 2025 at 9:57 AM
We need to talk about geoengineering ⚠️
In a rapidly warming world with looming net zero due dates, there's growing polarised debate about whether we should intervene in Earth’s natural systems.
This is a thread about the state of polar geoengineering, and how we should be talking about it ⬇️
🧵 1/6
In a rapidly warming world with looming net zero due dates, there's growing polarised debate about whether we should intervene in Earth’s natural systems.
This is a thread about the state of polar geoengineering, and how we should be talking about it ⬇️
🧵 1/6
Geoengineering is not going to save the poles from climate change — @newscientist.com
Geoengineering is not going to save the poles from climate change
A review of the five main methods proposed for cooling down the poles or slowing the loss of ice concludes they are all wildly impractical, wouldn't work, or both
www.newscientist.com
September 9, 2025 at 10:40 AM
Geoengineering is not going to save the poles from climate change — @newscientist.com
Reposted by Julius Garbe
🧪🧵A carefully considered review of the most prominent polar geoengineering concepts by a large international group of polar science experts concludes that they are dangerous distractions.
www.frontiersin.org/journals/sci...
1/2
www.frontiersin.org/journals/sci...
1/2
Frontiers | Safeguarding the polar regions from dangerous geoengineering: a critical assessment of proposed concepts and future prospects
Fossil-fuel burning is heating the planet with catastrophic consequences for its habitability and for the natural world on which our existence depends. Halti...
www.frontiersin.org
September 9, 2025 at 10:01 AM
🧪🧵A carefully considered review of the most prominent polar geoengineering concepts by a large international group of polar science experts concludes that they are dangerous distractions.
www.frontiersin.org/journals/sci...
1/2
www.frontiersin.org/journals/sci...
1/2
You may have guessed it already: Sea curtains in Antarctica cannot be a long-term solution to prevent loss & damage caused by ice melt and sea-level rise. Only curbing emissions can be! It's like taking an aspirin for tooth cavities—it won't save you from seeing a dentist, nor does it fix the cause.
#Geoengineering is not the way to address #climatechange in the polar regions!
Our review of the 5 most prominent polar geoengineering ideas concludes that none are viable. Instead, they are environmentally dangerous and have major governance & ethics issues
www.frontiersin.org/journals/sci...
🧪🌊❄️
Our review of the 5 most prominent polar geoengineering ideas concludes that none are viable. Instead, they are environmentally dangerous and have major governance & ethics issues
www.frontiersin.org/journals/sci...
🧪🌊❄️
Frontiers | Safeguarding the polar regions from dangerous geoengineering: a critical assessment of proposed concepts and future prospects
Fossil-fuel burning is heating the planet with catastrophic consequences for its habitability and for the natural world on which our existence depends. Halti...
www.frontiersin.org
September 9, 2025 at 10:34 AM
You may have guessed it already: Sea curtains in Antarctica cannot be a long-term solution to prevent loss & damage caused by ice melt and sea-level rise. Only curbing emissions can be! It's like taking an aspirin for tooth cavities—it won't save you from seeing a dentist, nor does it fix the cause.
Reposted by Julius Garbe
An authoritative group of #climate scientists have reviewed 5 prominent ideas to #geoengineer the polar regions.
They conclude that these ideas are economically and practically unfeasible, environmentally dangerous & have major governance & ethics issues.
www.frontiersin.org/journals/sci...
🌊🧪
They conclude that these ideas are economically and practically unfeasible, environmentally dangerous & have major governance & ethics issues.
www.frontiersin.org/journals/sci...
🌊🧪
Frontiers | Safeguarding the polar regions from dangerous geoengineering: a critical assessment of proposed concepts and future prospects
Fossil-fuel burning is heating the planet with catastrophic consequences for its habitability and for the natural world on which our existence depends. Halti...
www.frontiersin.org
September 9, 2025 at 9:37 AM
An authoritative group of #climate scientists have reviewed 5 prominent ideas to #geoengineer the polar regions.
They conclude that these ideas are economically and practically unfeasible, environmentally dangerous & have major governance & ethics issues.
www.frontiersin.org/journals/sci...
🌊🧪
They conclude that these ideas are economically and practically unfeasible, environmentally dangerous & have major governance & ethics issues.
www.frontiersin.org/journals/sci...
🌊🧪