Ben Sanderson
@benmsanderson.bsky.social
Climate scientist at CICERO, Oslo. I try to talk about climate science, but inevitably start talking about trains and bicycles if left unattended.
Reposted by Ben Sanderson
I had a great time presenting at #AGU25! Grateful for the support of my advisor @kimcobb.bsky.social and amazing @ncar-cgd.bsky.social scientists. NCAR makes my research, and so much other vital climate science, possible.
December 19, 2025 at 8:22 PM
I had a great time presenting at #AGU25! Grateful for the support of my advisor @kimcobb.bsky.social and amazing @ncar-cgd.bsky.social scientists. NCAR makes my research, and so much other vital climate science, possible.
Reposted by Ben Sanderson
I was wondering when AMS was going to say something publicly. www.ametsoc.org/ams/about-am...
The United States of America Needs the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
The AMS is a global community committed to advancing weather, water, and climate science and service.
www.ametsoc.org
December 19, 2025 at 9:04 PM
I was wondering when AMS was going to say something publicly. www.ametsoc.org/ams/about-am...
Reposted by Ben Sanderson
Good!
Colorado Senators Bennet and Hickenlooper objected to moving forward with the minibus spending package, which would have funded 85 to 90% of the federal government through September 2026, because of the Trump regime's plan to dismantle NCAR.
Colorado Senators Bennet and Hickenlooper objected to moving forward with the minibus spending package, which would have funded 85 to 90% of the federal government through September 2026, because of the Trump regime's plan to dismantle NCAR.
Trump move to dismantle climate agency blows up Senate funding deal
A potential deal to fund large swaths of the federal government, including the Departments of Defense and Health and Human Services, collapsed on Thursday night after Colorado senators demanded tha…
thehill.com
December 19, 2025 at 9:10 PM
Good!
Colorado Senators Bennet and Hickenlooper objected to moving forward with the minibus spending package, which would have funded 85 to 90% of the federal government through September 2026, because of the Trump regime's plan to dismantle NCAR.
Colorado Senators Bennet and Hickenlooper objected to moving forward with the minibus spending package, which would have funded 85 to 90% of the federal government through September 2026, because of the Trump regime's plan to dismantle NCAR.
I mean, just look at it. It's a towering physical monument to the persuit of better understanding the science of the Earth. Generations of young climate scientists from across the world have been mentored in its sandstone walls. The symbolism of this attack on free science is unparalleled.
“NCAR has played a greater role in advancing weather prediction & atmospheric modeling than perhaps any other single entity in the world,” says @weatherwest.bsky.social
Dismantling NCAR would be “like taking a sledgehammer to the keystone holding up our scientific understanding of the planet.” KH
Dismantling NCAR would be “like taking a sledgehammer to the keystone holding up our scientific understanding of the planet.” KH
Trump administration plans to break up largest federal climate research center
Russ Vought, director of the White House Office of Management and Budget, said the National Science Foundation "will be breaking up" the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado.
www.nbcnews.com
December 17, 2025 at 9:54 PM
I mean, just look at it. It's a towering physical monument to the persuit of better understanding the science of the Earth. Generations of young climate scientists from across the world have been mentored in its sandstone walls. The symbolism of this attack on free science is unparalleled.
Friends at NCAR, we're with you.
@ncar-ucar.bsky.social is a trailblazer in community modelling driven not by idealogy, but by open science. We share all our code, thoughts, ideas. These can't be shut down.
We'll fight and find every mechanism to support the ongoing CESM community.
@ncar-ucar.bsky.social is a trailblazer in community modelling driven not by idealogy, but by open science. We share all our code, thoughts, ideas. These can't be shut down.
We'll fight and find every mechanism to support the ongoing CESM community.
Exclusive: The Trump administration is moving to dismantle the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado, according to a senior White House official, taking aim at one of the world's leading climate research labs.
Trump moves to dismantle major US climate research center in Colorado
The Trump administration is breaking up the National Center for Atmospheric Research, taking aim at one of the world's leading climate research labs.
bit.ly
December 17, 2025 at 7:44 AM
Friends at NCAR, we're with you.
@ncar-ucar.bsky.social is a trailblazer in community modelling driven not by idealogy, but by open science. We share all our code, thoughts, ideas. These can't be shut down.
We'll fight and find every mechanism to support the ongoing CESM community.
@ncar-ucar.bsky.social is a trailblazer in community modelling driven not by idealogy, but by open science. We share all our code, thoughts, ideas. These can't be shut down.
We'll fight and find every mechanism to support the ongoing CESM community.
Reposted by Ben Sanderson
To spare others the difficulty of writing Python🐍 code that simulates a user clicking links in a browser, I am also sharing download bundles of UNFCCC data: industrydecarbonization.com/docs/unfccc....
UNFCCC Emission Data Downloads
Easy Downloads of UNFCCC data: National Inventory Reports (NIR) and Common Reporting Tables (CRT).
industrydecarbonization.com
November 27, 2025 at 2:52 PM
To spare others the difficulty of writing Python🐍 code that simulates a user clicking links in a browser, I am also sharing download bundles of UNFCCC data: industrydecarbonization.com/docs/unfccc....
It's unavoidable that mid-career scientists are (a) (currently) better known by editors and (b) are slammed for time with proposals/bureaucracy. Timely recommendation of relevant younger scientists as reviewers is one key to breaking this deadlock (instead of guiltily letting it sit in your inbox).
I have recently been quite successful, rarely invite more than 4-5 for two reviews. It pays out to invest time in searching for possible reviewers, I focus on late stage PhDs and postdocs that are likely to have time and write them why I believe they are a good fit for this manuscript.
November 29, 2025 at 9:16 AM
It's unavoidable that mid-career scientists are (a) (currently) better known by editors and (b) are slammed for time with proposals/bureaucracy. Timely recommendation of relevant younger scientists as reviewers is one key to breaking this deadlock (instead of guiltily letting it sit in your inbox).
Reposted by Ben Sanderson
And if IPCC AR7 is not released until after the GST in 2028, then they will still be using the 2019 number until 2029, when the budget for 1.5°C would have been exceeded...
(unless someone comes up with new bigger budgets)
(unless someone comes up with new bigger budgets)
#cop30 decision's "recalling with concern" that "historical cumulative net carbon dioxide emissions account for at least four fifths of the total carbon budget for a 50% probability of limiting global warming to 1.5C" was true *in 2019*.
It's now 94%, best guess. /1
unfccc.int/sites/defaul...
It's now 94%, best guess. /1
unfccc.int/sites/defaul...
unfccc.int
November 24, 2025 at 9:11 AM
And if IPCC AR7 is not released until after the GST in 2028, then they will still be using the 2019 number until 2029, when the budget for 1.5°C would have been exceeded...
(unless someone comes up with new bigger budgets)
(unless someone comes up with new bigger budgets)
#cop30 decision's "recalling with concern" that "historical cumulative net carbon dioxide emissions account for at least four fifths of the total carbon budget for a 50% probability of limiting global warming to 1.5C" was true *in 2019*.
It's now 94%, best guess. /1
unfccc.int/sites/defaul...
It's now 94%, best guess. /1
unfccc.int/sites/defaul...
unfccc.int
November 23, 2025 at 8:18 PM
#cop30 decision's "recalling with concern" that "historical cumulative net carbon dioxide emissions account for at least four fifths of the total carbon budget for a 50% probability of limiting global warming to 1.5C" was true *in 2019*.
It's now 94%, best guess. /1
unfccc.int/sites/defaul...
It's now 94%, best guess. /1
unfccc.int/sites/defaul...
Reposted by Ben Sanderson
Making a climate model that works well is really, really hard. So hard, in fact, that the people who do make it happen rarely have the time or energy to talk about how hard it is on the internet. So most other people have very little understanding about how hard it is... But boy is it hard #NorESM3
November 18, 2025 at 4:50 PM
Making a climate model that works well is really, really hard. So hard, in fact, that the people who do make it happen rarely have the time or energy to talk about how hard it is on the internet. So most other people have very little understanding about how hard it is... But boy is it hard #NorESM3
We've been explaining various methods to cook eggs to our kid, establishing a parameter space with rarely sampled areas. It's up to him to now assess why.
October 25, 2025 at 7:52 PM
We've been explaining various methods to cook eggs to our kid, establishing a parameter space with rarely sampled areas. It's up to him to now assess why.
This seems dangerous. The whole fact that the working language of LLMs is English isn't an inefficiency - it's a critical safety feature. If we allow native machine learning 'languages' we lose both traceability and our ability to monitor hyper intelligent systems.
venturebeat.com/ai/deepseek-...
venturebeat.com/ai/deepseek-...
venturebeat.com
October 23, 2025 at 6:42 AM
This seems dangerous. The whole fact that the working language of LLMs is English isn't an inefficiency - it's a critical safety feature. If we allow native machine learning 'languages' we lose both traceability and our ability to monitor hyper intelligent systems.
venturebeat.com/ai/deepseek-...
venturebeat.com/ai/deepseek-...
Dear Google autocorrect: I write "TCRE" about 1000 times more frequently than I write "tyre"and you should know this by now.
October 9, 2025 at 2:00 PM
Dear Google autocorrect: I write "TCRE" about 1000 times more frequently than I write "tyre"and you should know this by now.
Paris-Berlin sleeper: low carbon, 2 years old, constantly full, but currently losing SNCF a few million EUR/yr
Intl Jet fuel tax exemptions are 80 years old and cost the EU 22 million EUR/yr for the Paris-Berlin route alone.
And you're cutting... the sleeper?
www.theguardian.com/travel/2025/...
Intl Jet fuel tax exemptions are 80 years old and cost the EU 22 million EUR/yr for the Paris-Berlin route alone.
And you're cutting... the sleeper?
www.theguardian.com/travel/2025/...
It’s goodnight Vienna as Paris sleeper train to Austria and Berlin hit by cuts
Some Nightjet services suspended from mid-December after French withdrawal amid public budget crisis
www.theguardian.com
September 29, 2025 at 9:31 PM
Paris-Berlin sleeper: low carbon, 2 years old, constantly full, but currently losing SNCF a few million EUR/yr
Intl Jet fuel tax exemptions are 80 years old and cost the EU 22 million EUR/yr for the Paris-Berlin route alone.
And you're cutting... the sleeper?
www.theguardian.com/travel/2025/...
Intl Jet fuel tax exemptions are 80 years old and cost the EU 22 million EUR/yr for the Paris-Berlin route alone.
And you're cutting... the sleeper?
www.theguardian.com/travel/2025/...
Let's just be clear on this.
600 billion dollars is enough money to decarbonize the entire US power grid.
But somehow our species is spending that money on trying to build a machine which pretty nobody wants, except like the 5 richest guys in the world.
www.nrel.gov/analysis/100...
600 billion dollars is enough money to decarbonize the entire US power grid.
But somehow our species is spending that money on trying to build a machine which pretty nobody wants, except like the 5 richest guys in the world.
www.nrel.gov/analysis/100...
ZUCKERBERG: “If we end up misspending a couple of hundred billion dollars, I think that that is going to be very unfortunate, obviously. .. But what I’d say is I actually think the risk is higher on the other side.”
$META
youtu.be/23FyskyFoP8?...
$META
youtu.be/23FyskyFoP8?...
September 26, 2025 at 9:25 PM
Let's just be clear on this.
600 billion dollars is enough money to decarbonize the entire US power grid.
But somehow our species is spending that money on trying to build a machine which pretty nobody wants, except like the 5 richest guys in the world.
www.nrel.gov/analysis/100...
600 billion dollars is enough money to decarbonize the entire US power grid.
But somehow our species is spending that money on trying to build a machine which pretty nobody wants, except like the 5 richest guys in the world.
www.nrel.gov/analysis/100...
Reposted by Ben Sanderson
Bessent openly buried Article 5
Bessent: "Now Putin has started making incursions into the NATO borders. The one thing I can tell you is the US is not going to get involved with troops or any of that. We will sell the Europeans weapons."
September 24, 2025 at 5:59 PM
Bessent openly buried Article 5
Reposted by Ben Sanderson
The DIAMOND project has made an important milestone: the first draft release of six open integrated assessment models (IAMs) that are emblematic in both scientific and policy processes. Now is the chance to contribute and provide feedback!
preview.mailerlite.com/y7x9l4x1r1
preview.mailerlite.com/y7x9l4x1r1
September 3, 2025 at 7:03 AM
The DIAMOND project has made an important milestone: the first draft release of six open integrated assessment models (IAMs) that are emblematic in both scientific and policy processes. Now is the chance to contribute and provide feedback!
preview.mailerlite.com/y7x9l4x1r1
preview.mailerlite.com/y7x9l4x1r1
It's weird - but now in Oslo, there's so many EVs that you notice the noise and the smell from individual ICE cars, and you realise how much we've been normalising it for ever. You can smell them half a street away.
And inside parking lots are just *quiet*.
And inside parking lots are just *quiet*.
It's absolutely astonishing: In just about 13 years, Norway has skyrocketed from virtually no sales of zero-emission battery electric vehicles to nearly 100% of all new passenger car purchases.
September 24, 2025 at 6:45 AM
It's weird - but now in Oslo, there's so many EVs that you notice the noise and the smell from individual ICE cars, and you realise how much we've been normalising it for ever. You can smell them half a street away.
And inside parking lots are just *quiet*.
And inside parking lots are just *quiet*.
Reposted by Ben Sanderson
The Stupidest Speech in UN History
Everyone's saying so!
billmckibben.substack.com
September 24, 2025 at 6:07 AM
Reposted by Ben Sanderson
Climate change is not a con-job. If you want to know more about the evidence for and causes of #ClimateChange, head to our website: royalsociety.org/news-resourc...
Climate change: evidence and causes | Royal Society
Supplementary information for the project 'Climate Change: Evidence and causes'.
royalsociety.org
September 23, 2025 at 3:49 PM
Climate change is not a con-job. If you want to know more about the evidence for and causes of #ClimateChange, head to our website: royalsociety.org/news-resourc...
Sorry, but disagree with @hausfath.bsky.social here. You open Pandora's box, you ain't closing it again. We've already seen with Paris that well intentioned international agreements do not translate into physical reality and SRM governance is a much harder problem. Zero is the only safe level. /1
I have a new @nytimes.com guest essay w/ @davidkeith.bsky.social about sunlight reflection. We note its not a solution for climate change and at best a band aid to treat systems, and suggest if its ever done it should only be to replace the cooling from air pollution today:
Opinion | A Responsible Way to Cool the Planet
A small, carefully scaled geoengineering program could compensate for the loss of cooling as we eliminate sulfur pollution.
www.nytimes.com
September 21, 2025 at 4:25 PM
Sorry, but disagree with @hausfath.bsky.social here. You open Pandora's box, you ain't closing it again. We've already seen with Paris that well intentioned international agreements do not translate into physical reality and SRM governance is a much harder problem. Zero is the only safe level. /1
WTF??. I've only just appreciated this applies to *existing* visas. The US is effectively expelling its foreign non-naturalized scientists.
No scientist can reasonably avoid any travel - for work, and (heaven forbid) to see family. And 100k is beyond the means of pretty much everyone.
No scientist can reasonably avoid any travel - for work, and (heaven forbid) to see family. And 100k is beyond the means of pretty much everyone.
Those on an H1B cannot return to the US from tomorrow (Sunday) unless paying $100K. This is an out-of-the blue presidential action. We’ll see software engineers stranded abroad.
One easy to predict outcome: those on US visas will travel less… for work, for conferences etc.
One easy to predict outcome: those on US visas will travel less… for work, for conferences etc.
September 20, 2025 at 9:42 PM
WTF??. I've only just appreciated this applies to *existing* visas. The US is effectively expelling its foreign non-naturalized scientists.
No scientist can reasonably avoid any travel - for work, and (heaven forbid) to see family. And 100k is beyond the means of pretty much everyone.
No scientist can reasonably avoid any travel - for work, and (heaven forbid) to see family. And 100k is beyond the means of pretty much everyone.
Same goes for national labs and non profit research institutes. Pure academic isolationism.
Why is this horrible for Universities?
Just about everyone who isn't a citizen or green card holder already who's hired for a tenure track faculty position is hired through an H1B and then, after 3-5 years, applies for a green card.
This is literally "No more foreign professors can be hired"
Just about everyone who isn't a citizen or green card holder already who's hired for a tenure track faculty position is hired through an H1B and then, after 3-5 years, applies for a green card.
This is literally "No more foreign professors can be hired"
Those on an H1B cannot return to the US from tomorrow (Sunday) unless paying $100K. This is an out-of-the blue presidential action. We’ll see software engineers stranded abroad.
One easy to predict outcome: those on US visas will travel less… for work, for conferences etc.
One easy to predict outcome: those on US visas will travel less… for work, for conferences etc.
September 20, 2025 at 4:21 PM
Same goes for national labs and non profit research institutes. Pure academic isolationism.
Reposted by Ben Sanderson
funny graphic: Nic Lewis' estimates of climate sensitivity over time. he'll be at 3°C before you know it.
h/t @kenrice.bsky.social via andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2025/08/30/c...
h/t @kenrice.bsky.social via andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2025/08/30/c...
September 19, 2025 at 7:34 PM
funny graphic: Nic Lewis' estimates of climate sensitivity over time. he'll be at 3°C before you know it.
h/t @kenrice.bsky.social via andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2025/08/30/c...
h/t @kenrice.bsky.social via andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2025/08/30/c...
The last few years definitely raise some questions about the lower bounds of ECS BUT.. people, AR7 can't cite bluesky. We need strong updated literature, which fully takes into account the last few years of data - ideally from a few independent groups. Tick tock
ECS <2 is absurd in the year of our lord 2025.
The data used in Sherwood et al is now almost a decade old (not to mention Lewis and Curry 2014).
Even ignoring pattern effects, we’re now already at ~1.5C with less than 2xCO2 and an even larger energy imbalance.
No way Effective ECS is <2.
The data used in Sherwood et al is now almost a decade old (not to mention Lewis and Curry 2014).
Even ignoring pattern effects, we’re now already at ~1.5C with less than 2xCO2 and an even larger energy imbalance.
No way Effective ECS is <2.
But it's not just uniform vs Jeffreys. There are other priors and there are other ways to estimate ECS. As Andrew points out, if your method suggest a good chance of the ECS being < 2K, then there's probably an issue with the method, or it's at least worth considering this.
September 20, 2025 at 2:58 PM
The last few years definitely raise some questions about the lower bounds of ECS BUT.. people, AR7 can't cite bluesky. We need strong updated literature, which fully takes into account the last few years of data - ideally from a few independent groups. Tick tock