Raphael Cunha
@raphaelcunha.bsky.social
Political scientist at King's College London @kingscollegelondon.bsky.social @kingsqpe.bsky.social, international political economy, politics of money & finance, https://raphaelcunha.info
Reposted by Raphael Cunha
📢 Call for papers!
We are organizing the 6th Early Career Workshop in Quantitative Political Economy on 14-15 May 2026 at King’s College London!
Keynote: Shanker Satyanath (NYU)
No fee, travel grants might become available!
Submit at: tinyurl.com/qpe2026
We are organizing the 6th Early Career Workshop in Quantitative Political Economy on 14-15 May 2026 at King’s College London!
Keynote: Shanker Satyanath (NYU)
No fee, travel grants might become available!
Submit at: tinyurl.com/qpe2026
February 13, 2026 at 12:42 PM
📢 Call for papers!
We are organizing the 6th Early Career Workshop in Quantitative Political Economy on 14-15 May 2026 at King’s College London!
Keynote: Shanker Satyanath (NYU)
No fee, travel grants might become available!
Submit at: tinyurl.com/qpe2026
We are organizing the 6th Early Career Workshop in Quantitative Political Economy on 14-15 May 2026 at King’s College London!
Keynote: Shanker Satyanath (NYU)
No fee, travel grants might become available!
Submit at: tinyurl.com/qpe2026
Reposted by Raphael Cunha
🚨📄 New paper (conditional accepted at @thejop.bsky.social):
We test whether social desirability bias actually distorts answers in online surveys.
Short version:
It mostly doesn’t.
w. @timallinger.bsky.social @kristianvsf.bsky.social @morganlcj.bsky.social
URL: osf.io/preprints/os...
We test whether social desirability bias actually distorts answers in online surveys.
Short version:
It mostly doesn’t.
w. @timallinger.bsky.social @kristianvsf.bsky.social @morganlcj.bsky.social
URL: osf.io/preprints/os...
February 12, 2026 at 1:06 PM
🚨📄 New paper (conditional accepted at @thejop.bsky.social):
We test whether social desirability bias actually distorts answers in online surveys.
Short version:
It mostly doesn’t.
w. @timallinger.bsky.social @kristianvsf.bsky.social @morganlcj.bsky.social
URL: osf.io/preprints/os...
We test whether social desirability bias actually distorts answers in online surveys.
Short version:
It mostly doesn’t.
w. @timallinger.bsky.social @kristianvsf.bsky.social @morganlcj.bsky.social
URL: osf.io/preprints/os...
Reposted by Raphael Cunha
This Wednesday we are very happy to be hosting Guido Tabellini on "Do Elections Moderate or Polarize Political Rhetoric?"
Feel free to contact us (see details at sites.google.com/view/kingsqp...) if you're interested in attending.
Feel free to contact us (see details at sites.google.com/view/kingsqp...) if you're interested in attending.
🔥 Excited to share our 2025/26 QPE Seminar lineup!
Externals welcome. Please get in touch at bouke.klein_teeselink@kcl.ac.uk or teresa.estebancasanelles@kcl.ac.uk.
📅 Full schedule 👇
Externals welcome. Please get in touch at bouke.klein_teeselink@kcl.ac.uk or teresa.estebancasanelles@kcl.ac.uk.
📅 Full schedule 👇
February 10, 2026 at 9:43 AM
This Wednesday we are very happy to be hosting Guido Tabellini on "Do Elections Moderate or Polarize Political Rhetoric?"
Feel free to contact us (see details at sites.google.com/view/kingsqp...) if you're interested in attending.
Feel free to contact us (see details at sites.google.com/view/kingsqp...) if you're interested in attending.
Reposted by Raphael Cunha
This Wednesday we are very happy to be hosting Ignacio Jurado (@jurado.bsky.social) on "Losing Elections: Democratic Consent and Illiberal Attitudes in Polarized Contexts".
Feel free to contact us (see details at sites.google.com/view/kingsqp...) if you're interested in attending.
Feel free to contact us (see details at sites.google.com/view/kingsqp...) if you're interested in attending.
🔥 Excited to share our 2025/26 QPE Seminar lineup!
Externals welcome. Please get in touch at bouke.klein_teeselink@kcl.ac.uk or teresa.estebancasanelles@kcl.ac.uk.
📅 Full schedule 👇
Externals welcome. Please get in touch at bouke.klein_teeselink@kcl.ac.uk or teresa.estebancasanelles@kcl.ac.uk.
📅 Full schedule 👇
February 2, 2026 at 10:20 AM
This Wednesday we are very happy to be hosting Ignacio Jurado (@jurado.bsky.social) on "Losing Elections: Democratic Consent and Illiberal Attitudes in Polarized Contexts".
Feel free to contact us (see details at sites.google.com/view/kingsqp...) if you're interested in attending.
Feel free to contact us (see details at sites.google.com/view/kingsqp...) if you're interested in attending.
Reposted by Raphael Cunha
Many people think crypto is a scam. Why is it not more heavily regulated? We look at attitudes after the FTX scandal, showing that scandal coverage differed between left and right media. Conservatives who got their news from the left (eg NYT), and vice versa, wound up more moderate. Media matters. 👇
📰How do scandals shape support for crypto rules?
➡️P D Culpepper, T Lee & R Shandler find that after the FTX scandal, news exposure boosted Democrats’ support for regulation, while Republicans shifted only when exposed to regulatory framing cambridge.org/core/journal... #FirstView
➡️P D Culpepper, T Lee & R Shandler find that after the FTX scandal, news exposure boosted Democrats’ support for regulation, while Republicans shifted only when exposed to regulatory framing cambridge.org/core/journal... #FirstView
January 23, 2026 at 3:32 PM
Many people think crypto is a scam. Why is it not more heavily regulated? We look at attitudes after the FTX scandal, showing that scandal coverage differed between left and right media. Conservatives who got their news from the left (eg NYT), and vice versa, wound up more moderate. Media matters. 👇
Reposted by Raphael Cunha
Yet another data point supporting the view that there is change afoot in the global financial system.
I know it's trite, but this is all "how to dismantle a reserve currency."
The dollar as the go-to haven in times of crisis, well, that appears (again) to be shaky.
1/
I know it's trite, but this is all "how to dismantle a reserve currency."
The dollar as the go-to haven in times of crisis, well, that appears (again) to be shaky.
1/
January 23, 2026 at 7:44 PM
Yet another data point supporting the view that there is change afoot in the global financial system.
I know it's trite, but this is all "how to dismantle a reserve currency."
The dollar as the go-to haven in times of crisis, well, that appears (again) to be shaky.
1/
I know it's trite, but this is all "how to dismantle a reserve currency."
The dollar as the go-to haven in times of crisis, well, that appears (again) to be shaky.
1/
Reposted by Raphael Cunha
The second paper is by @dsquareddigest.bsky.social and @himself.bsky.social. It shows how dollar centrality was weaponised by the US to help maintain order but is now plausibly undermining it. Great topical read on some of the underlying faultlines
www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/documents/60...
www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/documents/60...
January 22, 2026 at 6:31 PM
The second paper is by @dsquareddigest.bsky.social and @himself.bsky.social. It shows how dollar centrality was weaponised by the US to help maintain order but is now plausibly undermining it. Great topical read on some of the underlying faultlines
www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/documents/60...
www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/documents/60...
Reposted by Raphael Cunha
We're hard at work on new AI tools for RStudio that will support EDA and we hope generally accelerate data science. If you're interested in trying them out, join the private beta waitlist for a sneak peek: posit.co/products/ai/ #rstats
Interested in using AI in RStudio? Let us know.
We’re working hard to bring more AI capabilities to RStudio. If you’re interested in learning more about what’s coming, including early access to help test new capabilities, join our waitlist.
https://posit.co/products/ai/"
January 21, 2026 at 4:52 PM
We're hard at work on new AI tools for RStudio that will support EDA and we hope generally accelerate data science. If you're interested in trying them out, join the private beta waitlist for a sneak peek: posit.co/products/ai/ #rstats
This is required reading – like everything else that @danielmcdowell.bsky.social writes on the topic.
January 21, 2026 at 11:56 AM
This is required reading – like everything else that @danielmcdowell.bsky.social writes on the topic.
Reposted by Raphael Cunha
It is even worse than it looks
The Old World Order is Dead
Unipolarity was given, not taken
open.substack.com
January 20, 2026 at 5:19 PM
It is even worse than it looks
Reposted by Raphael Cunha
‘A nasty little song, really rather evil’: how Every Breath You Take tore Sting and the Police apart
‘A nasty little song, really rather evil’: how Every Breath You Take tore Sting and the Police apart
Sting and his former bandmates go to the high court over a royalties dispute this week – the latest chapter in the song’s remarkably fractious story
www.theguardian.com
January 15, 2026 at 10:49 AM
‘A nasty little song, really rather evil’: how Every Breath You Take tore Sting and the Police apart
Reposted by Raphael Cunha
I just finished a three-year term as an editor at an international relations journal. I began at the start of the LLM era but ended right in the middle of it. Our volume of submissions tripled and our desk reject rate rose to 75%. I have some thoughts.
open.substack.com/pub/hegemon/...
open.substack.com/pub/hegemon/...
The Age of Academic Slop is Upon Us
what happens when AI automates "normal science"?
open.substack.com
January 13, 2026 at 3:38 PM
I just finished a three-year term as an editor at an international relations journal. I began at the start of the LLM era but ended right in the middle of it. Our volume of submissions tripled and our desk reject rate rose to 75%. I have some thoughts.
open.substack.com/pub/hegemon/...
open.substack.com/pub/hegemon/...
This graph is shocking.
Britain’s HS2 rail project has been relegated by many to the status of sorry joke, but FT analysis showing that it is now the most expensive strip of train line in the world is really not very funny at all (at least, not if you’re a British taxpayer).
An #FTEdit 🧵 on how the costs have mounted 👇
An #FTEdit 🧵 on how the costs have mounted 👇
January 13, 2026 at 11:59 PM
This graph is shocking.
Reposted by Raphael Cunha
Ótimo texto do Marcos Lisboa sobre o Master:
www1.folha.uol.com.br/colunas/marc...
www1.folha.uol.com.br/colunas/marc...
www1.folha.uol.com.br
January 7, 2026 at 9:59 AM
Ótimo texto do Marcos Lisboa sobre o Master:
www1.folha.uol.com.br/colunas/marc...
www1.folha.uol.com.br/colunas/marc...
Reposted by Raphael Cunha
This is an interesting paper.
I continue to sense that we as a field have concluded, either you have an identification strategy as defined here, or you don’t have a valid causal claim. And that is really not true.
I continue to sense that we as a field have concluded, either you have an identification strategy as defined here, or you don’t have a valid causal claim. And that is really not true.
December 2, 2025 at 9:33 PM
This is an interesting paper.
I continue to sense that we as a field have concluded, either you have an identification strategy as defined here, or you don’t have a valid causal claim. And that is really not true.
I continue to sense that we as a field have concluded, either you have an identification strategy as defined here, or you don’t have a valid causal claim. And that is really not true.
Reposted by Raphael Cunha
December 2, 2025 at 7:09 PM
Reposted by Raphael Cunha
Ever wondered why some countries get recognition while others struggle to be seen?
My book 𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘔𝘢𝘬𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘰𝘧 𝘐𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘯𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘚𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘶𝘴 is finally out in the world!
📘 academic.oup.com/book/61560
My book 𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘔𝘢𝘬𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘰𝘧 𝘐𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘯𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘚𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘶𝘴 is finally out in the world!
📘 academic.oup.com/book/61560
The Making of International Status
Abstract. With great power rivalry on the rise again, many worry that struggles for status among states could lead to war. As a growing consensus indicates
academic.oup.com
November 12, 2025 at 1:20 PM
Ever wondered why some countries get recognition while others struggle to be seen?
My book 𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘔𝘢𝘬𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘰𝘧 𝘐𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘯𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘚𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘶𝘴 is finally out in the world!
📘 academic.oup.com/book/61560
My book 𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘔𝘢𝘬𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘰𝘧 𝘐𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘯𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘚𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘶𝘴 is finally out in the world!
📘 academic.oup.com/book/61560
Reposted by Raphael Cunha
This is wild!
Seven-day-ahead weather forecasts in high-income countries are more accurate than one-day-ahead weather forecasts in low-income countries.
Seven-day-ahead weather forecasts in high-income countries are more accurate than one-day-ahead weather forecasts in low-income countries.
November 25, 2025 at 9:07 PM
This is wild!
Seven-day-ahead weather forecasts in high-income countries are more accurate than one-day-ahead weather forecasts in low-income countries.
Seven-day-ahead weather forecasts in high-income countries are more accurate than one-day-ahead weather forecasts in low-income countries.
Reposted by Raphael Cunha
🚨 LSE Assistant Professor in Political Science 🚨
We’re hiring a tenure-track assistant professor - any area of empirical political science - to join our wonderful Government Dept @lsegovernment.bsky.social
Any questions, please reach out to me
📣 Please share! 📣
jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...
We’re hiring a tenure-track assistant professor - any area of empirical political science - to join our wonderful Government Dept @lsegovernment.bsky.social
Any questions, please reach out to me
📣 Please share! 📣
jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...
November 25, 2025 at 8:38 AM
🚨 LSE Assistant Professor in Political Science 🚨
We’re hiring a tenure-track assistant professor - any area of empirical political science - to join our wonderful Government Dept @lsegovernment.bsky.social
Any questions, please reach out to me
📣 Please share! 📣
jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...
We’re hiring a tenure-track assistant professor - any area of empirical political science - to join our wonderful Government Dept @lsegovernment.bsky.social
Any questions, please reach out to me
📣 Please share! 📣
jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...
Reposted by Raphael Cunha
ICYMI: New paper for causal effects with panel data, subsuming other approaches. We generate realistic synthetic data based on commonly studied datasets, showing our method substantially outperforms others and providing insight about what in the data-generating process corresponds to gains.
New paper: Triply Robust Panel Estimators (TROP) by @susanathey.bsky.social @guidoimbens.bsky.social Zhaonan Qu @vivianodavide.bsky.social.
arxiv.org/pdf/2508.21536
arxiv.org/pdf/2508.21536
November 23, 2025 at 10:39 PM
ICYMI: New paper for causal effects with panel data, subsuming other approaches. We generate realistic synthetic data based on commonly studied datasets, showing our method substantially outperforms others and providing insight about what in the data-generating process corresponds to gains.
Reposted by Raphael Cunha
This is a wonderful book! So happy to see this out! Congrats @mduque.bsky.social
Ever wondered why some countries get recognition while others struggle to be seen?
My book 𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘔𝘢𝘬𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘰𝘧 𝘐𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘯𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘚𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘶𝘴 is finally out in the world!
📘 academic.oup.com/book/61560
My book 𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘔𝘢𝘬𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘰𝘧 𝘐𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘯𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘚𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘶𝘴 is finally out in the world!
📘 academic.oup.com/book/61560
The Making of International Status
Abstract. With great power rivalry on the rise again, many worry that struggles for status among states could lead to war. As a growing consensus indicates
academic.oup.com
November 13, 2025 at 2:26 PM
This is a wonderful book! So happy to see this out! Congrats @mduque.bsky.social
Reposted by Raphael Cunha
Is this what hell is like?
AI-powered nimbyism could grind UK planning system to a halt, experts warn
Tools that help people scan applications and find grounds for objection have potential to hit government’s housebuilding plans
www.theguardian.com
November 13, 2025 at 9:45 PM
Is this what hell is like?
Is this what hell is like?
AI-powered nimbyism could grind UK planning system to a halt, experts warn
Tools that help people scan applications and find grounds for objection have potential to hit government’s housebuilding plans
www.theguardian.com
November 13, 2025 at 9:45 PM
Is this what hell is like?
Reposted by Raphael Cunha
📣Call for papers now open for our annual Workshop on the Economics and Politics of Migration. Rome🔥, May 28-29, 2026.
More details below👇
More details below👇
CfP🗣️: 7th edition of the Workshop on the Economics and Politics of Migration. 28-29 May 2026, in Rome!
Organised by CEPR/King's College/EBRD/Sapienza
Keynotes are Paolo Pinotti (Bocconi) and Vicky Fouka (Stanford).
Submit your papers: docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...
Deadline 23 Jan.
🤓🔥🍕🍝🍷
Organised by CEPR/King's College/EBRD/Sapienza
Keynotes are Paolo Pinotti (Bocconi) and Vicky Fouka (Stanford).
Submit your papers: docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...
Deadline 23 Jan.
🤓🔥🍕🍝🍷
November 12, 2025 at 11:20 AM
📣Call for papers now open for our annual Workshop on the Economics and Politics of Migration. Rome🔥, May 28-29, 2026.
More details below👇
More details below👇
Reposted by Raphael Cunha
A win for economics (who predicted this), a loss for Britain
New @nberpubs: "The Economic Impact of Brexit" www.nber.org/papers/w34459
"by 2025, Brexit had reduced UK GDP by 6% to 8%, with the impact accumulating gradually over time." 😲
"by 2025, Brexit had reduced UK GDP by 6% to 8%, with the impact accumulating gradually over time." 😲
November 10, 2025 at 6:01 PM
A win for economics (who predicted this), a loss for Britain