“Survey data shows that in every election from 1948 to 2012, American voters’ image of the Democrats was as the party that stood up for the working class and the poor. In 2016 that flipped. Now it is seen primarily as the party of minority advocacy.”

Critical factor: "timing of the various Pandemic relief checks, which doubly penalize Biden: Trump looks comparatively strong due to the 2020 boost, and Biden’s data is extra weak due to the reference point being the stimulus-fueled high that was 2020."

Fascinating new paper by @noamgidron.bsky.social and co-authors on the rise of the populist right in Europe.

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

Another striking chart...

Wilders’ statement is a perfect example of @drodrik.bsky.social’s globalization trilemma in action.