Adrian Nesta
@justanesta.com
Data journalist. Into economics, basketball, baseball, film. All views and opinions posted are mine. Don't let him cook @ justanesta.com. Let's love.
Reposted by Adrian Nesta
my stance has always been that we have an economy so as to have people, and arguments that we need to make people to have an economy are silly
December 5, 2025 at 1:44 PM
my stance has always been that we have an economy so as to have people, and arguments that we need to make people to have an economy are silly
Reposted by Adrian Nesta
Before I led BLS I was not as acutely aware of how many businesses, firms, and individual jobs depend on a stream of public use data. One estimate is that the $2 billion the US spends on economic data creates a $200+ billion industry of 'data-intensive' businesses. pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/...
pubs.aeaweb.org
October 3, 2025 at 5:58 PM
Before I led BLS I was not as acutely aware of how many businesses, firms, and individual jobs depend on a stream of public use data. One estimate is that the $2 billion the US spends on economic data creates a $200+ billion industry of 'data-intensive' businesses. pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/...
Reposted by Adrian Nesta
First, well, yeah that is always what the GOP proposes. We'll need to raise revenue by a third or cut benefits by a quarter to provide the trust fund with another 75 years of "solvency." Not surprising the GOP wants poor people to bear the cost. But I want to dig in a bit here.
BREAKING: Trump administration considers raising retirement age to save Social Security from insolvency, per FOX
September 19, 2025 at 6:31 PM
First, well, yeah that is always what the GOP proposes. We'll need to raise revenue by a third or cut benefits by a quarter to provide the trust fund with another 75 years of "solvency." Not surprising the GOP wants poor people to bear the cost. But I want to dig in a bit here.
I was reading something that backlinked to a 1999 CDC Morbidity & Mortality Weekly Report listing the ten great public health achievements of the century. Striking how many of these are directly or indirectly in the crosshairs of our conservative political movement. www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview...
September 11, 2025 at 3:35 PM
I was reading something that backlinked to a 1999 CDC Morbidity & Mortality Weekly Report listing the ten great public health achievements of the century. Striking how many of these are directly or indirectly in the crosshairs of our conservative political movement. www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview...
Reposted by Adrian Nesta
The city is backtracking on its order to end the CityFHEPs incentive that pays LL to hold units, sending the rule to public review.
DSS claimed it didn't need review, but after a judge issued an injunction preventing the rule change, they changed course. @CityLimitsNews.bsky.social story 👇
DSS claimed it didn't need review, but after a judge issued an injunction preventing the rule change, they changed course. @CityLimitsNews.bsky.social story 👇
August 21, 2025 at 9:30 PM
The city is backtracking on its order to end the CityFHEPs incentive that pays LL to hold units, sending the rule to public review.
DSS claimed it didn't need review, but after a judge issued an injunction preventing the rule change, they changed course. @CityLimitsNews.bsky.social story 👇
DSS claimed it didn't need review, but after a judge issued an injunction preventing the rule change, they changed course. @CityLimitsNews.bsky.social story 👇
Reposted by Adrian Nesta
There’s more pickup trucks on the road than ever before. There are increasingly used for personal use only, rather than being used for work.
November 27, 2024 at 12:35 PM
There’s more pickup trucks on the road than ever before. There are increasingly used for personal use only, rather than being used for work.
Reposted by Adrian Nesta
Recent jobs data suggests this streak might be coming to an end.
My analysis: open.substack.com/pub/davidwal...
My analysis: open.substack.com/pub/davidwal...
Is the yield curve still useful for predicting recessions?
In 2022, the yield curve suggested an economic downturn was around the corner, but the U.S. economy has continued to grow anyway
open.substack.com
August 4, 2025 at 10:30 AM
Recent jobs data suggests this streak might be coming to an end.
My analysis: open.substack.com/pub/davidwal...
My analysis: open.substack.com/pub/davidwal...
Reposted by Adrian Nesta
The yield curve inverted in April 2022, typically signaling recession within 6-24 months. But 38 months later, the U.S. economy still hasn’t entered recession—the longest streak since 1978.
August 4, 2025 at 10:30 AM
The yield curve inverted in April 2022, typically signaling recession within 6-24 months. But 38 months later, the U.S. economy still hasn’t entered recession—the longest streak since 1978.
Reposted by Adrian Nesta
From @ernietedeschi.bsky.social over on the bad site: “BLS's first-release estimates of nonfarm payroll employment have gotten more, not less, accurate over time.”
August 2, 2025 at 7:52 PM
From @ernietedeschi.bsky.social over on the bad site: “BLS's first-release estimates of nonfarm payroll employment have gotten more, not less, accurate over time.”
Reposted by Adrian Nesta
Tariffs are a regressive tax, especially in the short-run. The short-run burden on 1st decile households (as a % of income) is >3x that of the top decile (-3.5% versus -1.0%). The average annual cost to the 1st & top decile are $1,300 & $5,000 respectively; median is $2,200.
4/10
4/10
July 30, 2025 at 4:26 PM
Tariffs are a regressive tax, especially in the short-run. The short-run burden on 1st decile households (as a % of income) is >3x that of the top decile (-3.5% versus -1.0%). The average annual cost to the 1st & top decile are $1,300 & $5,000 respectively; median is $2,200.
4/10
4/10
Reposted by Adrian Nesta
It's simply amazing to me that the U.S. spent 70 years (1945-2015) constructing a post-WW2 military, economic, and social world order to its liking, only to turn around and decide it was actually the victim of this order the entire time.
July 28, 2025 at 1:59 PM
It's simply amazing to me that the U.S. spent 70 years (1945-2015) constructing a post-WW2 military, economic, and social world order to its liking, only to turn around and decide it was actually the victim of this order the entire time.
Reposted by Adrian Nesta
🗣️ I'll return to Chicago this October for the News Product Alliance's annual summit.
Scott Klein and I will drop a new report documenting the sorry state of open-source news.
https://newsproduct.org/npasummit/sessions
Scott Klein and I will drop a new report documenting the sorry state of open-source news.
https://newsproduct.org/npasummit/sessions
July 28, 2025 at 1:05 PM
🗣️ I'll return to Chicago this October for the News Product Alliance's annual summit.
Scott Klein and I will drop a new report documenting the sorry state of open-source news.
https://newsproduct.org/npasummit/sessions
Scott Klein and I will drop a new report documenting the sorry state of open-source news.
https://newsproduct.org/npasummit/sessions
Reposted by Adrian Nesta
“The American psyche once embraced the New Deal but will never do so again” strikes me as a take that requires some pretty strong assumptions about static social conditions and culture which just don’t track history.
July 27, 2025 at 3:09 PM
“The American psyche once embraced the New Deal but will never do so again” strikes me as a take that requires some pretty strong assumptions about static social conditions and culture which just don’t track history.
Something that really struck me reading the latest @budgetlab.bsky.social State of U.S. Tariffs, after imports shift in response to the latest tariffs the 19.4% effective overall rate is the highest since **1933**. Less than 500K people currently alive even remember what 1933 was like! #EconSky
July 26, 2025 at 2:36 PM
Something that really struck me reading the latest @budgetlab.bsky.social State of U.S. Tariffs, after imports shift in response to the latest tariffs the 19.4% effective overall rate is the highest since **1933**. Less than 500K people currently alive even remember what 1933 was like! #EconSky
State JOLTS shows YoY declines in the labor leverage ratio (quits / layoffs) in much of the South, though the region is still the hotter labor markets nationally. Broad weakness in the Northeast especially in high layoff RI, ME, and CT, low quit PA and MA, and worst of both NJ #EconSky.
July 24, 2025 at 9:49 PM
State JOLTS shows YoY declines in the labor leverage ratio (quits / layoffs) in much of the South, though the region is still the hotter labor markets nationally. Broad weakness in the Northeast especially in high layoff RI, ME, and CT, low quit PA and MA, and worst of both NJ #EconSky.
Reposted by Adrian Nesta
This is a nice piece refuting the popular take that AI is driving the tough job market for recent college grads. It's easy to blame the AI boogeyman but that story is overly simplistic and much-too-soon in my opinion.
New up at @employamerica.bsky.social from our guest writer Will Raderman
www.employamerica.org/labor-market...
www.employamerica.org/labor-market...
Don’t Blame AI For The Rise in Recent Graduate Unemployment
AI may be a hot topic, but there isn't strong evidence that it’s responsible for the weaker labor market for recent college graduates.
www.employamerica.org
July 22, 2025 at 8:18 PM
This is a nice piece refuting the popular take that AI is driving the tough job market for recent college grads. It's easy to blame the AI boogeyman but that story is overly simplistic and much-too-soon in my opinion.
A great point in the recent @employamerica.bsky.social piece on AI and recent college graduate labor market. There are a number of college majors that have actually seen a *decline* in unemployment from ~'17/'18 to present that one would anticipate to be impacted, mainly engineering. #EconSky
July 22, 2025 at 7:55 PM
A great point in the recent @employamerica.bsky.social piece on AI and recent college graduate labor market. There are a number of college majors that have actually seen a *decline* in unemployment from ~'17/'18 to present that one would anticipate to be impacted, mainly engineering. #EconSky
Sizable month-over-month bump in in June for retail sales data from the Census MARTS. +0.36% MoM inflation-adjusted. Retail trade & food services ex. auto and gas a bit cooler at +0.27%. #NumbersDay #EconSky
July 17, 2025 at 5:03 PM
Sizable month-over-month bump in in June for retail sales data from the Census MARTS. +0.36% MoM inflation-adjusted. Retail trade & food services ex. auto and gas a bit cooler at +0.27%. #NumbersDay #EconSky
The feeling I get listening to Mamdani strikes me what I imagine older millennials felt with Obama leading up to '08. Policies aside there's this instant recognition that he's an incredibly talented political communicator that can speak with a moral urgency that lots of people find authentic.
July 11, 2025 at 2:23 AM
The feeling I get listening to Mamdani strikes me what I imagine older millennials felt with Obama leading up to '08. Policies aside there's this instant recognition that he's an incredibly talented political communicator that can speak with a moral urgency that lots of people find authentic.
Reposted by Adrian Nesta
i think people need to really grapple w the idea that this administration is gearing up for war against the US economy and the people who make it happen.
literally everyone, from scientists to janitorial staff, is their enemy
literally everyone, from scientists to janitorial staff, is their enemy
My colleague @benzipperer.org estimates if Trump meets deportation targets of 1 million per year, it'll lead to massive job losses: 6 million total, 44% of them jobs belonging to US-born workers. If Trump gets $160 billion in new enforcement money, he might pull it off.
www.epi.org/blog/the-rep...
www.epi.org/blog/the-rep...
July 2, 2025 at 1:20 PM
i think people need to really grapple w the idea that this administration is gearing up for war against the US economy and the people who make it happen.
literally everyone, from scientists to janitorial staff, is their enemy
literally everyone, from scientists to janitorial staff, is their enemy
My #LastFourWatched for #LetterboxdFriday, the most recent a screening at @nitehawkcinema.bsky.social for my birthday!
June 28, 2025 at 2:38 AM
My #LastFourWatched for #LetterboxdFriday, the most recent a screening at @nitehawkcinema.bsky.social for my birthday!
Reposted by Adrian Nesta
Reposted by Adrian Nesta
I daresay that effort-automation substitution may prove more consequential when the atrophied skills are communication and critical thinking.
June 25, 2025 at 4:02 PM
I daresay that effort-automation substitution may prove more consequential when the atrophied skills are communication and critical thinking.
Reposted by Adrian Nesta
