Adrian Nesta
@justanesta.com
Data journalist. Into economics, basketball, baseball, film. All views and opinions posted are mine. Don't let him cook @ justanesta.com. Let's love.
Reminds me of this apparently real thing from awhile back.
December 11, 2025 at 2:25 AM
Reminds me of this apparently real thing from awhile back.
I don't disagree. I will note that it's somewhat striking how different this picture looks if you start the base period two years earlier. fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgr...
December 2, 2025 at 7:29 PM
I don't disagree. I will note that it's somewhat striking how different this picture looks if you start the base period two years earlier. fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgr...
I was reading something that backlinked to a 1999 CDC Morbidity & Mortality Weekly Report listing the ten great public health achievements of the century. Striking how many of these are directly or indirectly in the crosshairs of our conservative political movement. www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview...
September 11, 2025 at 3:35 PM
I was reading something that backlinked to a 1999 CDC Morbidity & Mortality Weekly Report listing the ten great public health achievements of the century. Striking how many of these are directly or indirectly in the crosshairs of our conservative political movement. www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview...
Something that really struck me reading the latest @budgetlab.bsky.social State of U.S. Tariffs, after imports shift in response to the latest tariffs the 19.4% effective overall rate is the highest since **1933**. Less than 500K people currently alive even remember what 1933 was like! #EconSky
July 26, 2025 at 2:36 PM
Something that really struck me reading the latest @budgetlab.bsky.social State of U.S. Tariffs, after imports shift in response to the latest tariffs the 19.4% effective overall rate is the highest since **1933**. Less than 500K people currently alive even remember what 1933 was like! #EconSky
State JOLTS shows YoY declines in the labor leverage ratio (quits / layoffs) in much of the South, though the region is still the hotter labor markets nationally. Broad weakness in the Northeast especially in high layoff RI, ME, and CT, low quit PA and MA, and worst of both NJ #EconSky.
July 24, 2025 at 9:49 PM
State JOLTS shows YoY declines in the labor leverage ratio (quits / layoffs) in much of the South, though the region is still the hotter labor markets nationally. Broad weakness in the Northeast especially in high layoff RI, ME, and CT, low quit PA and MA, and worst of both NJ #EconSky.
A great point in the recent @employamerica.bsky.social piece on AI and recent college graduate labor market. There are a number of college majors that have actually seen a *decline* in unemployment from ~'17/'18 to present that one would anticipate to be impacted, mainly engineering. #EconSky
July 22, 2025 at 7:55 PM
A great point in the recent @employamerica.bsky.social piece on AI and recent college graduate labor market. There are a number of college majors that have actually seen a *decline* in unemployment from ~'17/'18 to present that one would anticipate to be impacted, mainly engineering. #EconSky
The big thrust behind this print is the rebound in auto spending. +0.92% at dealers MoM inflation-adjusted, powered by over +1% for vehicles specifically. Additional spending bumps between +0.21% and +0.28% at food and beverage stores, grocery, and restaurants. #EconSky #NumbersDay
July 17, 2025 at 5:15 PM
The big thrust behind this print is the rebound in auto spending. +0.92% at dealers MoM inflation-adjusted, powered by over +1% for vehicles specifically. Additional spending bumps between +0.21% and +0.28% at food and beverage stores, grocery, and restaurants. #EconSky #NumbersDay
Drilling down into General Merchandise, Apparel and Accessories, Furniture and Other Sales (GAFO) misc. retailers like florists, used merchandise stores, and pet and pet supply stores saw a 1.46% MoM inflation-adjusted increase. Department stores dragging behind at a 1.06% drop. #EconSky #NumbersDay
July 17, 2025 at 5:09 PM
Drilling down into General Merchandise, Apparel and Accessories, Furniture and Other Sales (GAFO) misc. retailers like florists, used merchandise stores, and pet and pet supply stores saw a 1.46% MoM inflation-adjusted increase. Department stores dragging behind at a 1.06% drop. #EconSky #NumbersDay
Sizable month-over-month bump in in June for retail sales data from the Census MARTS. +0.36% MoM inflation-adjusted. Retail trade & food services ex. auto and gas a bit cooler at +0.27%. #NumbersDay #EconSky
July 17, 2025 at 5:03 PM
Sizable month-over-month bump in in June for retail sales data from the Census MARTS. +0.36% MoM inflation-adjusted. Retail trade & food services ex. auto and gas a bit cooler at +0.27%. #NumbersDay #EconSky
My #LastFourWatched for #LetterboxdFriday, the most recent a screening at @nitehawkcinema.bsky.social for my birthday!
June 28, 2025 at 2:38 AM
My #LastFourWatched for #LetterboxdFriday, the most recent a screening at @nitehawkcinema.bsky.social for my birthday!
I looked it up because I was curious but I had a hunch Rose wasn't as good as a contemporary of his he's often compared to and...yeah I'd say this might surprise a certain type of baseball fan. stathead.com/tiny/aCYR1
May 15, 2025 at 1:43 AM
I looked it up because I was curious but I had a hunch Rose wasn't as good as a contemporary of his he's often compared to and...yeah I'd say this might surprise a certain type of baseball fan. stathead.com/tiny/aCYR1
I'm not sure about poverty level but yeah many don't make much. BLS Occupational Employment & Wage data from last year has agents at ~$56k/yr median which is ~14% more than the median across all occupations. Brokers earn considerably more.
April 21, 2025 at 8:10 PM
I'm not sure about poverty level but yeah many don't make much. BLS Occupational Employment & Wage data from last year has agents at ~$56k/yr median which is ~14% more than the median across all occupations. Brokers earn considerably more.
Big weekly jump of 46 basis points in the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index. The 118bp 2 week rise is the 18th highest in the 32 years of data. 14 of the top 20 two-week increases were in recessions. #EconSky
April 17, 2025 at 5:14 PM
Big weekly jump of 46 basis points in the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index. The 118bp 2 week rise is the 18th highest in the 32 years of data. 14 of the top 20 two-week increases were in recessions. #EconSky
A movie that takes place where you are from.
Cameron Crowe's mostly self-biographical ALMOST FAMOUS (2000) includes his upbringing in the San Diego suburbs and attendance at what is now Cathedral Catholic High School.
Cameron Crowe's mostly self-biographical ALMOST FAMOUS (2000) includes his upbringing in the San Diego suburbs and attendance at what is now Cathedral Catholic High School.
April 16, 2025 at 8:48 PM
A movie that takes place where you are from.
Cameron Crowe's mostly self-biographical ALMOST FAMOUS (2000) includes his upbringing in the San Diego suburbs and attendance at what is now Cathedral Catholic High School.
Cameron Crowe's mostly self-biographical ALMOST FAMOUS (2000) includes his upbringing in the San Diego suburbs and attendance at what is now Cathedral Catholic High School.
Happy #LetterboxdFriday with an eclectic #LastFourWatched
April 11, 2025 at 4:15 PM
Happy #LetterboxdFriday with an eclectic #LastFourWatched
Job openings still high in most sectors, though notably lowest in bluer-collar sectors like construction, mining and logging and manufacturing. However openings have declined since last year in every sector except leisure and hospitality. Total nonfarm openings rate down 11%. #EconSky #NumbersDay
April 1, 2025 at 3:04 PM
Job openings still high in most sectors, though notably lowest in bluer-collar sectors like construction, mining and logging and manufacturing. However openings have declined since last year in every sector except leisure and hospitality. Total nonfarm openings rate down 11%. #EconSky #NumbersDay
Labor leverage ratio is still broadly strong — above 1:1 quits per layoff — in every sector. However every sector aside from construction, professional and business services, and financial activities has seen yearly declines. Overall total nonfarm yearly decline of 8.2%. #EconSky #NumbersDay
April 1, 2025 at 2:59 PM
Labor leverage ratio is still broadly strong — above 1:1 quits per layoff — in every sector. However every sector aside from construction, professional and business services, and financial activities has seen yearly declines. Overall total nonfarm yearly decline of 8.2%. #EconSky #NumbersDay
Layoffs rate for total nonfarm still relatively low at 1.1% of employment, about 3% higher than last year. Most sectors seeing moderate to larger yearly increases from relatively low rates except financial activities, professional and business services, and construction. #EconSky #NumbersDay
April 1, 2025 at 2:55 PM
Layoffs rate for total nonfarm still relatively low at 1.1% of employment, about 3% higher than last year. Most sectors seeing moderate to larger yearly increases from relatively low rates except financial activities, professional and business services, and construction. #EconSky #NumbersDay
For the quits rate, leisure and hospitality still running the hottest at 3.6% of employment. Notably some knowledge worker sectors like financial activities and information have the lowest, aside from government. Overall almost 8% yearly decline in the total nonfarm rate. #EconSky #NumbersDay
April 1, 2025 at 2:50 PM
For the quits rate, leisure and hospitality still running the hottest at 3.6% of employment. Notably some knowledge worker sectors like financial activities and information have the lowest, aside from government. Overall almost 8% yearly decline in the total nonfarm rate. #EconSky #NumbersDay
Looking by NAICS supersector, the hires rate is still much higher in the leisure and hospitality sector than any other, even in the face of declines in the last year. Notably government has the lowest hires rate at 1.6% of employment with an almost 8% year-over-year decline. #EconSky #NumbersDay
April 1, 2025 at 2:45 PM
Looking by NAICS supersector, the hires rate is still much higher in the leisure and hospitality sector than any other, even in the face of declines in the last year. Notably government has the lowest hires rate at 1.6% of employment with an almost 8% year-over-year decline. #EconSky #NumbersDay
The job openings rate has also cooled substantively from all-time highs in '21-'22. Though a rate of 4.5 is still higher than historical non-recession averages. #EconSky #NumbersDay
April 1, 2025 at 2:35 PM
The job openings rate has also cooled substantively from all-time highs in '21-'22. Though a rate of 4.5 is still higher than historical non-recession averages. #EconSky #NumbersDay
This stasis also puts the labor leverage ratio — the number of quits per layoff in the overall workforce — at 1.78. Lower most of the last year but still well above non-recession averages. Typically values above 1 indicate greater worker confidence in the labor market. #EconSky #NumbersDay
April 1, 2025 at 2:30 PM
This stasis also puts the labor leverage ratio — the number of quits per layoff in the overall workforce — at 1.78. Lower most of the last year but still well above non-recession averages. Typically values above 1 indicate greater worker confidence in the labor market. #EconSky #NumbersDay
Layoffs rate holding at 1.1% of employment for the fifth straight month. Slightly elevated from the major lows in '21-'22 but not showing sign of major loosening. #EconSky #NumbersDay
April 1, 2025 at 2:26 PM
Layoffs rate holding at 1.1% of employment for the fifth straight month. Slightly elevated from the major lows in '21-'22 but not showing sign of major loosening. #EconSky #NumbersDay
Quits rate also still steady at 2% of employment. Much like the hires rate a prolonged drawdown from the 2021/early '22 highs. #EconSky #NumbersDay
April 1, 2025 at 2:20 PM
Quits rate also still steady at 2% of employment. Much like the hires rate a prolonged drawdown from the 2021/early '22 highs. #EconSky #NumbersDay
New labor market data for February from the BLS JOLTS survey out today. Hires rate is still stagnant at 3.4% of employment. #EconSky #NumbersDay
April 1, 2025 at 2:17 PM
New labor market data for February from the BLS JOLTS survey out today. Hires rate is still stagnant at 3.4% of employment. #EconSky #NumbersDay