John Cranston
@jrcranston.bsky.social
Financial planning. Investment management…posts not financial advice.
📍 Boston
📍 Boston
Reposted by John Cranston
This is one way I’ve been thinking about the market outlook this year (some narrative tailwinds early that shift to headwinds around spring), and Claude did a pretty decent job of turning it into a visual:
January 31, 2026 at 1:40 PM
This is one way I’ve been thinking about the market outlook this year (some narrative tailwinds early that shift to headwinds around spring), and Claude did a pretty decent job of turning it into a visual:
curious...i wonder who used to bank there 🤔
German police search Deutsche Bank offices in money laundering probe reut.rs/4qaJkF7
German police search Deutsche Bank offices in money laundering probe
German federal police searched Deutsche Bank offices in Frankfurt and Berlin on Wednesday in an investigation related to money laundering, Frankfurt prosecutors said.
reut.rs
January 28, 2026 at 4:44 PM
curious...i wonder who used to bank there 🤔
Reposted by John Cranston
*MACKLEM: SAFE HAVEN ROLE OF US DOLLAR HAS BEEN DENTED
RenMac’s Dutta:
“GMAFB...USD weakness has been driven primarily by a shift in global risk appetite rather than a fundamental reassessment of US eco prospects.”
see: US stocks at ATHs, global stocks outperforming
RenMac’s Dutta:
“GMAFB...USD weakness has been driven primarily by a shift in global risk appetite rather than a fundamental reassessment of US eco prospects.”
see: US stocks at ATHs, global stocks outperforming
January 28, 2026 at 4:25 PM
*MACKLEM: SAFE HAVEN ROLE OF US DOLLAR HAS BEEN DENTED
RenMac’s Dutta:
“GMAFB...USD weakness has been driven primarily by a shift in global risk appetite rather than a fundamental reassessment of US eco prospects.”
see: US stocks at ATHs, global stocks outperforming
RenMac’s Dutta:
“GMAFB...USD weakness has been driven primarily by a shift in global risk appetite rather than a fundamental reassessment of US eco prospects.”
see: US stocks at ATHs, global stocks outperforming
Reposted by John Cranston
The “Week in Pictures” when it comes to international trade — Starmer in Beijing, Von der Leyen with Modi — have nothing to do with the US.
January 28, 2026 at 4:15 PM
The “Week in Pictures” when it comes to international trade — Starmer in Beijing, Von der Leyen with Modi — have nothing to do with the US.
Reposted by John Cranston
🚨Depressed US consumers in January!
🚨@Conferenceboard consumer confidence index collapsed to lowest point since 2014 -- lower than during Covid!
🔻Confidence: -9.7pt
🔻Present situation: -9.9pt
🔻Expectations: -9.5pt
⚠️Depressed by weak job & income conditions & prospects
🚨@Conferenceboard consumer confidence index collapsed to lowest point since 2014 -- lower than during Covid!
🔻Confidence: -9.7pt
🔻Present situation: -9.9pt
🔻Expectations: -9.5pt
⚠️Depressed by weak job & income conditions & prospects
January 27, 2026 at 4:41 PM
🚨Depressed US consumers in January!
🚨@Conferenceboard consumer confidence index collapsed to lowest point since 2014 -- lower than during Covid!
🔻Confidence: -9.7pt
🔻Present situation: -9.9pt
🔻Expectations: -9.5pt
⚠️Depressed by weak job & income conditions & prospects
🚨@Conferenceboard consumer confidence index collapsed to lowest point since 2014 -- lower than during Covid!
🔻Confidence: -9.7pt
🔻Present situation: -9.9pt
🔻Expectations: -9.5pt
⚠️Depressed by weak job & income conditions & prospects
Reposted by John Cranston
Lowest consumer confidence since 2014:
January 27, 2026 at 3:02 PM
Lowest consumer confidence since 2014:
Reposted by John Cranston
"Let me be direct. We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition.
We know the old order is not coming back. We shouldn’t mourn it. Nostalgia is not a strategy, but we believe that from the fracture we can build something bigger, better, stronger, more just. "
globalnews.ca/news/1162087...
We know the old order is not coming back. We shouldn’t mourn it. Nostalgia is not a strategy, but we believe that from the fracture we can build something bigger, better, stronger, more just. "
globalnews.ca/news/1162087...
Read the full transcript of Carney’s speech to World Economic Forum - National | Globalnews.ca
Prime Minister Mark Carney gave a forceful speech in Davos, Switzerland, on the 'new world order' and how middle powers like Canada can benefit by working together.
globalnews.ca
January 20, 2026 at 10:31 PM
"Let me be direct. We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition.
We know the old order is not coming back. We shouldn’t mourn it. Nostalgia is not a strategy, but we believe that from the fracture we can build something bigger, better, stronger, more just. "
globalnews.ca/news/1162087...
We know the old order is not coming back. We shouldn’t mourn it. Nostalgia is not a strategy, but we believe that from the fracture we can build something bigger, better, stronger, more just. "
globalnews.ca/news/1162087...
Reposted by John Cranston
Tariffs aren’t complicated, but refunding them is complicated.
Tariffs don’t raise prices, but removing them lowers prices. 🤡
Tariffs don’t raise prices, but removing them lowers prices. 🤡
December 24, 2025 at 1:16 PM
Tariffs aren’t complicated, but refunding them is complicated.
Tariffs don’t raise prices, but removing them lowers prices. 🤡
Tariffs don’t raise prices, but removing them lowers prices. 🤡
Reposted by John Cranston
There has been one (1) period of sustained deflation (eg prices down for multiple years in a row) since the 1910s. That was the Great Depression. I understand why people (not Chris, he gets it) naively think prices should fall but I cannot emphasize enough how Bad that would be.
December 17, 2025 at 10:08 PM
There has been one (1) period of sustained deflation (eg prices down for multiple years in a row) since the 1910s. That was the Great Depression. I understand why people (not Chris, he gets it) naively think prices should fall but I cannot emphasize enough how Bad that would be.
Reposted by John Cranston
Fed's Powell: It's really tariffs causing most of the inflation overshoot.
December 10, 2025 at 8:07 PM
Fed's Powell: It's really tariffs causing most of the inflation overshoot.
Reposted by John Cranston
Because Trump has no idea how trade imbalances work or why they exist.
Trump launches trade war against China. Chinese exports soar. American exports collapse. This was not a smart thing for America to have done.
China’s Trade Surplus Climbs Past $1 Trillion for First Time
www.nytimes.com
December 8, 2025 at 8:56 PM
Because Trump has no idea how trade imbalances work or why they exist.
Reposted by John Cranston
GOLDMAN: “.. Since the Late 1990s, US Labor Productivity Has Grown More Than Twice as Fast as Other Advanced Economies” 🇺🇸
November 26, 2025 at 11:52 AM
GOLDMAN: “.. Since the Late 1990s, US Labor Productivity Has Grown More Than Twice as Fast as Other Advanced Economies” 🇺🇸
Reposted by John Cranston
GOLDMAN DESK: here’s a chart of current “‘drawdowns’ in AI stocks relative to the broader market ..
“.. a ~10% relative pullback .. similar .. to the DeepSeek pullback (Jan/Feb’24), but short of what we experienced in the Summer of 2024 .. and that of the Spring of 2025 (tariffs).”
“.. a ~10% relative pullback .. similar .. to the DeepSeek pullback (Jan/Feb’24), but short of what we experienced in the Summer of 2024 .. and that of the Spring of 2025 (tariffs).”
November 23, 2025 at 11:31 PM
GOLDMAN DESK: here’s a chart of current “‘drawdowns’ in AI stocks relative to the broader market ..
“.. a ~10% relative pullback .. similar .. to the DeepSeek pullback (Jan/Feb’24), but short of what we experienced in the Summer of 2024 .. and that of the Spring of 2025 (tariffs).”
“.. a ~10% relative pullback .. similar .. to the DeepSeek pullback (Jan/Feb’24), but short of what we experienced in the Summer of 2024 .. and that of the Spring of 2025 (tariffs).”
Reposted by John Cranston
NVDA beat. Stock is up 3%. Earth remains intact
If Nvidia doesn’t beat earnings expectations today the earth will explode.
November 19, 2025 at 9:25 PM
NVDA beat. Stock is up 3%. Earth remains intact
Reposted by John Cranston
“.. it just doesn’t make financial sense for us to offer discounts because our costs of goods are so high because of the tariffs ..”
@bloomberg.com
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
@bloomberg.com
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
November 12, 2025 at 2:27 PM
“.. it just doesn’t make financial sense for us to offer discounts because our costs of goods are so high because of the tariffs ..”
@bloomberg.com
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
@bloomberg.com
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Reposted by John Cranston
November 8, 2025 at 5:12 PM
Reposted by John Cranston
Great turn of phrase from Brent Donnelly:
“AI is the procyclical scaffolding that holds up the k-shaped economy via the GDP boost from capex and the wealth effect”
“AI is the procyclical scaffolding that holds up the k-shaped economy via the GDP boost from capex and the wealth effect”
November 7, 2025 at 5:36 PM
Great turn of phrase from Brent Donnelly:
“AI is the procyclical scaffolding that holds up the k-shaped economy via the GDP boost from capex and the wealth effect”
“AI is the procyclical scaffolding that holds up the k-shaped economy via the GDP boost from capex and the wealth effect”
Reposted by John Cranston
Reposted by John Cranston
PMI surveys indicate elevated US price growth as tariffs drive inflation differential with rest of world
www.spglobal.com/marketintell...
www.spglobal.com/marketintell...
July 4, 2025 at 3:46 PM
PMI surveys indicate elevated US price growth as tariffs drive inflation differential with rest of world
www.spglobal.com/marketintell...
www.spglobal.com/marketintell...
Reposted by John Cranston
Nominal wage growth for the bottom quartile is below late 2010’s levels while core inflation and interest rates are higher — it’s probably the worst time for that cohort since at least the early 2010’s:
October 19, 2025 at 12:40 PM
Nominal wage growth for the bottom quartile is below late 2010’s levels while core inflation and interest rates are higher — it’s probably the worst time for that cohort since at least the early 2010’s:
Reposted by John Cranston
It’s regional banks, homebuilders, the labor market, and 10-year yields vs the AI bulls and reacceleration bros.
October 16, 2025 at 7:37 PM
It’s regional banks, homebuilders, the labor market, and 10-year yields vs the AI bulls and reacceleration bros.
Reposted by John Cranston
LOL the 3x Levered ETFs weren’t enough. Now we have 5x. 🤡
(via B of A)
(via B of A)
October 17, 2025 at 11:44 AM
LOL the 3x Levered ETFs weren’t enough. Now we have 5x. 🤡
(via B of A)
(via B of A)
Reposted by John Cranston
This isn't so much the textbook "Fed cutting rates and broad economy reaccelerating" small-cap revival dynamic.
Speculative, junky stocks (alt-energy, crypto, mining, drone tech, quantum) are driving R2K way up vs. the "quality" S&P Small Cap 600, which requires members to have profits...
Speculative, junky stocks (alt-energy, crypto, mining, drone tech, quantum) are driving R2K way up vs. the "quality" S&P Small Cap 600, which requires members to have profits...
October 15, 2025 at 12:51 PM
This isn't so much the textbook "Fed cutting rates and broad economy reaccelerating" small-cap revival dynamic.
Speculative, junky stocks (alt-energy, crypto, mining, drone tech, quantum) are driving R2K way up vs. the "quality" S&P Small Cap 600, which requires members to have profits...
Speculative, junky stocks (alt-energy, crypto, mining, drone tech, quantum) are driving R2K way up vs. the "quality" S&P Small Cap 600, which requires members to have profits...
Reposted by John Cranston
🔥The rush for gold and silver assets is HISTORIC:
Gold ETF ($GLD) call options volume (5-day moving average) has spiked to a record 900,000 contracts.
Silver ETF ($SLV) call options volume hit ~1,000,000, the highest since 2021.
Precious metals have never been this HOT.
Gold ETF ($GLD) call options volume (5-day moving average) has spiked to a record 900,000 contracts.
Silver ETF ($SLV) call options volume hit ~1,000,000, the highest since 2021.
Precious metals have never been this HOT.
October 15, 2025 at 3:30 PM
🔥The rush for gold and silver assets is HISTORIC:
Gold ETF ($GLD) call options volume (5-day moving average) has spiked to a record 900,000 contracts.
Silver ETF ($SLV) call options volume hit ~1,000,000, the highest since 2021.
Precious metals have never been this HOT.
Gold ETF ($GLD) call options volume (5-day moving average) has spiked to a record 900,000 contracts.
Silver ETF ($SLV) call options volume hit ~1,000,000, the highest since 2021.
Precious metals have never been this HOT.