@gabrielmathy.bsky.social
Economist and Economic Historian at American University. Macroeconomics, Economic History, Green Transition, International, Finance, Labor Markets, lots more.
Reposted
When Mark Carney sets specific goals for Canada to "diversify away" from its reliance on the US—making headlines in Canada but not the US—hear that for what it is: Close partners and allies looking elsewhere for better friends.
This is the silent way that the US loses its pointless trade war.
This is the silent way that the US loses its pointless trade war.
November 30, 2025 at 12:52 PM
When Mark Carney sets specific goals for Canada to "diversify away" from its reliance on the US—making headlines in Canada but not the US—hear that for what it is: Close partners and allies looking elsewhere for better friends.
This is the silent way that the US loses its pointless trade war.
This is the silent way that the US loses its pointless trade war.
I wonder who's going to get it.
FIFA has announced the creation of a peace prize, which it plans to award at the draw for the World Cup on Dec. 5 in Washington. https://to.pbs.org/47LyluB
FIFA to award new peace prize at World Cup draw in Washington
FIFA has announced the creation of a peace prize, which it plans to award for the first time at the World Cup draw on Dec. 5 in Washington.
www.pbs.org
November 6, 2025 at 12:44 AM
I wonder who's going to get it.
Reposted
October 30, 2025 at 11:57 PM
Reposted
🎓 Thinking about grad school?
Join us Sat, Oct 25 for AU’s College of Arts & Sciences Graduate Programs Fall Open House!
🕚 11 a.m.–3 p.m. | 📍 Check in: Mary Graydon Center, 10:30–10:50
Meet faculty, explore campus, and learn how a CAS grad degree can advance your goals.
👉 Register: bit.ly/3Jbqyhw
Join us Sat, Oct 25 for AU’s College of Arts & Sciences Graduate Programs Fall Open House!
🕚 11 a.m.–3 p.m. | 📍 Check in: Mary Graydon Center, 10:30–10:50
Meet faculty, explore campus, and learn how a CAS grad degree can advance your goals.
👉 Register: bit.ly/3Jbqyhw
October 23, 2025 at 7:25 PM
🎓 Thinking about grad school?
Join us Sat, Oct 25 for AU’s College of Arts & Sciences Graduate Programs Fall Open House!
🕚 11 a.m.–3 p.m. | 📍 Check in: Mary Graydon Center, 10:30–10:50
Meet faculty, explore campus, and learn how a CAS grad degree can advance your goals.
👉 Register: bit.ly/3Jbqyhw
Join us Sat, Oct 25 for AU’s College of Arts & Sciences Graduate Programs Fall Open House!
🕚 11 a.m.–3 p.m. | 📍 Check in: Mary Graydon Center, 10:30–10:50
Meet faculty, explore campus, and learn how a CAS grad degree can advance your goals.
👉 Register: bit.ly/3Jbqyhw
Reposted
"Trump Hopes Argentina Can Help Bring Down Meat Prices
President Trump’s plan to import red meat runs counter to his philosophy of increasing domestic production, and has angered cattle ranchers in the United States." www.nytimes.com/2025/10/20/u...
President Trump’s plan to import red meat runs counter to his philosophy of increasing domestic production, and has angered cattle ranchers in the United States." www.nytimes.com/2025/10/20/u...
October 21, 2025 at 11:33 AM
"Trump Hopes Argentina Can Help Bring Down Meat Prices
President Trump’s plan to import red meat runs counter to his philosophy of increasing domestic production, and has angered cattle ranchers in the United States." www.nytimes.com/2025/10/20/u...
President Trump’s plan to import red meat runs counter to his philosophy of increasing domestic production, and has angered cattle ranchers in the United States." www.nytimes.com/2025/10/20/u...
Reposted
BREAKING from PP
We found immigration agents have held more than 170 *citizens*
The govt doesn't track citizens held. So we did. We tallied:
Nearly 20 kids, two w/ cancer
More than 20 citizens held for day or more, incommunicado
www.propublica.org/article/immi...
by @nicolefoy.bsky.social
We found immigration agents have held more than 170 *citizens*
The govt doesn't track citizens held. So we did. We tallied:
Nearly 20 kids, two w/ cancer
More than 20 citizens held for day or more, incommunicado
www.propublica.org/article/immi...
by @nicolefoy.bsky.social
More Than 170 U.S. Citizens Have Been Held by Immigration Agents. They’ve Been Kicked, Dragged and Detained for Days.
The government does not track how often immigration agents grab citizens. So ProPublica did. Our tally — almost certainly incomplete — includes people who were held for days without a lawyer. And near...
www.propublica.org
October 16, 2025 at 4:06 PM
BREAKING from PP
We found immigration agents have held more than 170 *citizens*
The govt doesn't track citizens held. So we did. We tallied:
Nearly 20 kids, two w/ cancer
More than 20 citizens held for day or more, incommunicado
www.propublica.org/article/immi...
by @nicolefoy.bsky.social
We found immigration agents have held more than 170 *citizens*
The govt doesn't track citizens held. So we did. We tallied:
Nearly 20 kids, two w/ cancer
More than 20 citizens held for day or more, incommunicado
www.propublica.org/article/immi...
by @nicolefoy.bsky.social
Reposted
One of the reasons this one may bite particularly hard is the lack of flex capacity in truck manufacturing.
1. Plants tend to be rural with little surplus labor
2. Manufacturing is very assembly-intensive (i.e., little automation)
Maybe some token announcements, but likely prices go up.
1. Plants tend to be rural with little surplus labor
2. Manufacturing is very assembly-intensive (i.e., little automation)
Maybe some token announcements, but likely prices go up.
Trump says US truck imports to face 25% tariff from November 1 on.ft.com/438Ai2D
Donald Trump says US truck imports to face 25% tariff from November 1
Announcement comes on eve of talks in Washington with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney
on.ft.com
October 6, 2025 at 9:29 PM
One of the reasons this one may bite particularly hard is the lack of flex capacity in truck manufacturing.
1. Plants tend to be rural with little surplus labor
2. Manufacturing is very assembly-intensive (i.e., little automation)
Maybe some token announcements, but likely prices go up.
1. Plants tend to be rural with little surplus labor
2. Manufacturing is very assembly-intensive (i.e., little automation)
Maybe some token announcements, but likely prices go up.
Reposted
"We're going to create superintelligence" How about making outlook search work first. How about that
October 3, 2025 at 5:18 PM
"We're going to create superintelligence" How about making outlook search work first. How about that
Reposted
Big picture, we do not know the exact answer to 'how good/bad is the ADP data if BLS data disappears?' but the private data providers themselves are pretty clear in every conference/panel that the quality of their own data will erode if they cannot benchmark to BLS estimates.
October 2, 2025 at 5:18 PM
Big picture, we do not know the exact answer to 'how good/bad is the ADP data if BLS data disappears?' but the private data providers themselves are pretty clear in every conference/panel that the quality of their own data will erode if they cannot benchmark to BLS estimates.
Reposted
Who wants to work with Kate Bahn at the Institute for Women's Policy Research?
#econ_ra
iwpr.applytojob.com/apply/ACdbXf...
#econ_ra
iwpr.applytojob.com/apply/ACdbXf...
September 27, 2025 at 2:25 AM
Who wants to work with Kate Bahn at the Institute for Women's Policy Research?
#econ_ra
iwpr.applytojob.com/apply/ACdbXf...
#econ_ra
iwpr.applytojob.com/apply/ACdbXf...
Reposted
Seems bad: “The rise of unofficial US economic reports.” on.ft.com/4n38BAs
![Trump’s administration escalated its assault against the BLS on Tuesday after it revised down its estimates of payroll employment in the year to March 2025 by more than 900,000 jobs. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said the revision underlined the need for “truthful and honest data” and added that “the BLS is broken”.
On Wednesday the labour department’s Office of Inspector General announced it was launching a probe into “challenges that [BLS] encounters collecting and reporting closely watched economic data”.
Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at consultancy RSM, said the controversy surrounding the BLS would “increase demand for private label data, which will over time create a widening gap between the haves and the have-nots”.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:u3smqiqgoclp6fi3qbkrgjwd/bafkreie3x4uclq7msznulgc7s6iy5hu35w2xfpgzhbflrn4qb3umlmqrce@jpeg)
September 13, 2025 at 2:18 PM
Seems bad: “The rise of unofficial US economic reports.” on.ft.com/4n38BAs
Reposted
Fellow economists: Stand up for Fed Governor Lisa Cook and the principle of Federal Reserve independence. Sign this letter by Monday.
#CollectiveCourage: Hundreds of economists from across the country have signed an open letter calling on Congress to uphold Federal Reserve independence. If you’re an economist, you can still sign on: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1oGrUv-_CoeulsLZDt_lyNTPbm9wYCAfiTLm7KMiwgzA/edit?tab=t.0
Open letter
Click here to add your signature. An Open Letter from Economists in Support of Governor Lisa Cook and Federal Reserve Independence To the President, Members of Congress, and the American public: We wr...
docs.google.com
September 1, 2025 at 12:26 AM
Fellow economists: Stand up for Fed Governor Lisa Cook and the principle of Federal Reserve independence. Sign this letter by Monday.
Reposted
I signed an open letter from economists supporting Fed independence & Gov. Lisa Cook. Add your name by Monday: docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F... |
Letter: docs.google.com/document/d/1...
Letter: docs.google.com/document/d/1...
Signature page for Open Letter of Support of Governor Lisa Cook and Federal Reserve Independence
By filling out the form below, you are asking your signature to be added to this open letter.
docs.google.com
August 31, 2025 at 11:51 PM
I signed an open letter from economists supporting Fed independence & Gov. Lisa Cook. Add your name by Monday: docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F... |
Letter: docs.google.com/document/d/1...
Letter: docs.google.com/document/d/1...
Reposted
This letter is not particularly controversial in its assertions and the topic of central bank independence is extremely important. Takes about 4.5 minutes to read and sign (if you agree.) Looks like the number of signatories is up since Tatyana's post, but Economics needs YOU!
Over 125 economists signed the open letter calling on the President, Congress, and the American public to uphold the principles of Federal Reserve independence and not remove Lisa Cook without due process.
There's still time to sign! And please share.
#EconSky
docs.google.com/document/d/1...
There's still time to sign! And please share.
#EconSky
docs.google.com/document/d/1...
Open letter
Click here to add your signature. An Open Letter from Economists in Support of Governor Lisa Cook and Federal Reserve Independence To the President, Members of Congress, and the American public: We wr...
docs.google.com
August 31, 2025 at 9:18 PM
This letter is not particularly controversial in its assertions and the topic of central bank independence is extremely important. Takes about 4.5 minutes to read and sign (if you agree.) Looks like the number of signatories is up since Tatyana's post, but Economics needs YOU!
Reposted
AI Hype vs. Productivity Reality
Despite bold claims, there’s little evidence AI has boosted productivity so far. Even stretched scenarios indicate gains will fall short of past booms, suggesting current optimism is likely overdone.
open.substack.com/pub/bobeunli...
Despite bold claims, there’s little evidence AI has boosted productivity so far. Even stretched scenarios indicate gains will fall short of past booms, suggesting current optimism is likely overdone.
open.substack.com/pub/bobeunli...
AI Hype vs. Productivity Reality
Despite bold claims, there’s little evidence AI has boosted productivity so far. Even stretched scenarios indicate gains will fall short of past booms, suggesting current optimism is likely overdone.
open.substack.com
August 28, 2025 at 10:43 AM
AI Hype vs. Productivity Reality
Despite bold claims, there’s little evidence AI has boosted productivity so far. Even stretched scenarios indicate gains will fall short of past booms, suggesting current optimism is likely overdone.
open.substack.com/pub/bobeunli...
Despite bold claims, there’s little evidence AI has boosted productivity so far. Even stretched scenarios indicate gains will fall short of past booms, suggesting current optimism is likely overdone.
open.substack.com/pub/bobeunli...
Reposted
The letter is ready, thanks to all those who helped out! Starting to gather signature now, please consider signing (link at top of letter) & spread the word.
docs.google.com/document/d/1...
docs.google.com/document/d/1...
August 27, 2025 at 4:29 PM
The letter is ready, thanks to all those who helped out! Starting to gather signature now, please consider signing (link at top of letter) & spread the word.
docs.google.com/document/d/1...
docs.google.com/document/d/1...
Reposted
It’s hard to overstate how big a deal this is - for the economy (ours and globally), for the rule of law, and for the proper and efficient function of government.
www.nytimes.com/live/2025/08...
www.nytimes.com/live/2025/08...
Trump Administration Live Updates: President Says He Is Removing Lisa Cook From Federal Reserve Board
www.nytimes.com
August 26, 2025 at 1:08 AM
It’s hard to overstate how big a deal this is - for the economy (ours and globally), for the rule of law, and for the proper and efficient function of government.
www.nytimes.com/live/2025/08...
www.nytimes.com/live/2025/08...
Reposted
Just received this statement from Lisa Cook:
"President Trump purported to fire me 'for cause' when no cause exists under the law, and he has no authority to do so. I will not resign. I will continue to carry out my duties to help the American economy as I have been doing since 2022."
"President Trump purported to fire me 'for cause' when no cause exists under the law, and he has no authority to do so. I will not resign. I will continue to carry out my duties to help the American economy as I have been doing since 2022."
President Trump said he is firing Lisa Cook, a Federal Reserve governor, "effective immediately." It's his most direct assault yet on Fed independence -- and a step that it is far from clear he can legally take.
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/25/u... #EconSky
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/25/u... #EconSky
Trump Says He Is Removing Lisa Cook From Federal Reserve Board
www.nytimes.com
August 26, 2025 at 3:02 AM
Just received this statement from Lisa Cook:
"President Trump purported to fire me 'for cause' when no cause exists under the law, and he has no authority to do so. I will not resign. I will continue to carry out my duties to help the American economy as I have been doing since 2022."
"President Trump purported to fire me 'for cause' when no cause exists under the law, and he has no authority to do so. I will not resign. I will continue to carry out my duties to help the American economy as I have been doing since 2022."
Reposted
The White House seeks politicized control over my university by forcing out our president, as it did at the University of Virginia—a page from the recipe book of authoritarian strongmen on the Left (Maduro) and Right (Orbán).
Today President Washington responded to the attack.
(thread)
Today President Washington responded to the attack.
(thread)
GMU President Refuses to Apologize for Diversity Efforts, Lawyer Calls Ed. Dept. Claims ‘Absurd’
In a 10-page letter, Gregory Washington’s lawyer says the Trump administration conducted an incomplete and haphazard investigation full of “gross mischaracterizations.”
www.chronicle.com
August 25, 2025 at 8:59 PM
The White House seeks politicized control over my university by forcing out our president, as it did at the University of Virginia—a page from the recipe book of authoritarian strongmen on the Left (Maduro) and Right (Orbán).
Today President Washington responded to the attack.
(thread)
Today President Washington responded to the attack.
(thread)
Reposted
Remembering today when pro-GOP media erupted with outrage over Kamala Harris' warning that Trump had plans to militarize the national guard and deploy them on the streets of US cities. Indeed, he had such plans. And now he's implementing them.
August 24, 2025 at 4:32 PM
Remembering today when pro-GOP media erupted with outrage over Kamala Harris' warning that Trump had plans to militarize the national guard and deploy them on the streets of US cities. Indeed, he had such plans. And now he's implementing them.
Reposted
A number of people have claimed recently that the CPS shows a large rise in employment for native-born workers, while immigrant employment has fallen. Here's an exceedingly informative post from @jedkolko.bsky.social, on why the CPS cannot be used in this way. jedkolko.substack.com/p/no-native-...
August 19, 2025 at 11:27 PM
A number of people have claimed recently that the CPS shows a large rise in employment for native-born workers, while immigrant employment has fallen. Here's an exceedingly informative post from @jedkolko.bsky.social, on why the CPS cannot be used in this way. jedkolko.substack.com/p/no-native-...
Reposted
fresh audio product:
• Aaron Benanav @abenanav.bsky.social outlines possibilities for a democratically planned economy
• Jerome Nikolai Warren on the possibilities for cooperatives
www.leftbusinessobserver.com/Radio.html#S...
• Aaron Benanav @abenanav.bsky.social outlines possibilities for a democratically planned economy
• Jerome Nikolai Warren on the possibilities for cooperatives
www.leftbusinessobserver.com/Radio.html#S...
August 14, 2025 at 9:21 PM
fresh audio product:
• Aaron Benanav @abenanav.bsky.social outlines possibilities for a democratically planned economy
• Jerome Nikolai Warren on the possibilities for cooperatives
www.leftbusinessobserver.com/Radio.html#S...
• Aaron Benanav @abenanav.bsky.social outlines possibilities for a democratically planned economy
• Jerome Nikolai Warren on the possibilities for cooperatives
www.leftbusinessobserver.com/Radio.html#S...
ericturkheimer.substack.com/p/news-flash... More underwhelming results for polygenic scores
July 1, 2025 at 11:51 PM
ericturkheimer.substack.com/p/news-flash... More underwhelming results for polygenic scores
Has anybody checked in on the people who said that means tested programs are just as durable as universal programs? Not going so hot.
July 1, 2025 at 6:20 PM
Has anybody checked in on the people who said that means tested programs are just as durable as universal programs? Not going so hot.
Reposted
If this Senate language on solar passes, I think we’re in a full-blown national energy crisis within 2 years.
Forecasting after the cliff is even worse, but project pipelines will dry up, supply chains will convulse...and cost of new additions will soar. Assuming we can even meet demand growth. 🔌💡
Forecasting after the cliff is even worse, but project pipelines will dry up, supply chains will convulse...and cost of new additions will soar. Assuming we can even meet demand growth. 🔌💡
June 28, 2025 at 4:10 PM
If this Senate language on solar passes, I think we’re in a full-blown national energy crisis within 2 years.
Forecasting after the cliff is even worse, but project pipelines will dry up, supply chains will convulse...and cost of new additions will soar. Assuming we can even meet demand growth. 🔌💡
Forecasting after the cliff is even worse, but project pipelines will dry up, supply chains will convulse...and cost of new additions will soar. Assuming we can even meet demand growth. 🔌💡