Peter Ellis
@freerangestats.info
Director, Statistics for Development Division, at the Pacific Community. Posts are personal views, and most likely to be about data and #rstats, maybe with bits of history, social science and philosophy thrown in. Blog is at https://freerangestats.info/.
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Peter Ellis
@freerangestats.info
· Oct 8
Statistics Adviser (Demography)
Suva-based position (Fiji) Attractive expatriate package Join the principal development organisation in the region Description The Pacific Community (SPC) is...
careers.spc.int
We're #hiring a demographer at Pacific Community-SPC to help Pacific Island countries and territories with their population statistics! Based in Fiji, we're seeking someone with a relevant Masters or PhD, 10+ years experience, and strong skills in #rstats or Stata. careers.spc.int/job/statisti...
Reposted by Peter Ellis
File under: "well who could have seen that coming". The Billions to Trillions agenda of using aid to crowd in private finance for development hasn't worked: devpolicy.org/beyond-aid-p...
Beyond aid part 3: rethinking the role of private finance from trillions to realism - Devpolicy Blog from the Development Policy Centre
The ”billions to trillions” narrative has faded and the focus has now shifted to global public finance, says Nicola Nixon et al.
devpolicy.org
November 11, 2025 at 6:05 PM
File under: "well who could have seen that coming". The Billions to Trillions agenda of using aid to crowd in private finance for development hasn't worked: devpolicy.org/beyond-aid-p...
Reposted by Peter Ellis
Really nice to see this being used - a real blast from the past. If anyone is keen to help get this back on CRAN or do other work on it that would be amazing!
@dslc.io welcomes you to week 45 of #TidyTuesday! We're exploring WHO TB Burden Data: Incidence, Mortality, and Population!
📁 https://tidytues.day/2025/2025-11-11
📰 https://samabbott.co.uk/getTBinR/index.html
#RStats #PyData #JuliaLang #DataViz #tidyverse #r4ds
📁 https://tidytues.day/2025/2025-11-11
📰 https://samabbott.co.uk/getTBinR/index.html
#RStats #PyData #JuliaLang #DataViz #tidyverse #r4ds
November 11, 2025 at 10:34 AM
Really nice to see this being used - a real blast from the past. If anyone is keen to help get this back on CRAN or do other work on it that would be amazing!
This post came about as a follow-up to a comment @rmcelreath.bsky.social made on the sidelines of the great p-curve wars earlier this year. I wanted to see for myself just how non-uniform these things are and when.
I had a play in #rstats with the distribution of p-values under a true null hypothesis, for two-sample tests of equal proportions at different sample sizes. They're not uniformly distributed, but sometimes they are more non-uniform than other times. freerangestats.info/blog/2025/11...
November 9, 2025 at 7:59 PM
This post came about as a follow-up to a comment @rmcelreath.bsky.social made on the sidelines of the great p-curve wars earlier this year. I wanted to see for myself just how non-uniform these things are and when.
I had a play in #rstats with the distribution of p-values under a true null hypothesis, for two-sample tests of equal proportions at different sample sizes. They're not uniformly distributed, but sometimes they are more non-uniform than other times. freerangestats.info/blog/2025/11...
November 9, 2025 at 2:17 AM
I had a play in #rstats with the distribution of p-values under a true null hypothesis, for two-sample tests of equal proportions at different sample sizes. They're not uniformly distributed, but sometimes they are more non-uniform than other times. freerangestats.info/blog/2025/11...
"To obtain calm and quiet we had to come to New York, and there we got it in full measure. Life saunters along on an even keel. Nothing happens. Have we been mugged?"
"No, sir."
"Or shot by youths?"
"No, sir."
"No, sir," is right. We are tranquil. And I'll tell you why. There are no aunts here."
"No, sir."
"Or shot by youths?"
"No, sir."
"No, sir," is right. We are tranquil. And I'll tell you why. There are no aunts here."
November 5, 2025 at 7:48 AM
"To obtain calm and quiet we had to come to New York, and there we got it in full measure. Life saunters along on an even keel. Nothing happens. Have we been mugged?"
"No, sir."
"Or shot by youths?"
"No, sir."
"No, sir," is right. We are tranquil. And I'll tell you why. There are no aunts here."
"No, sir."
"Or shot by youths?"
"No, sir."
"No, sir," is right. We are tranquil. And I'll tell you why. There are no aunts here."
Reposted by Peter Ellis
Day 4: my data #30DayMapChallenge
Today I learned that #rstats 📦 `tidygeocoder` is super useful for pulling lat/long coordinates and that plotting a world map that centres the pacific is quite annoying. Shout out to @freerangestats.info for useful blog posts.
jenrichmond.github.io/maps/2025-11...
Today I learned that #rstats 📦 `tidygeocoder` is super useful for pulling lat/long coordinates and that plotting a world map that centres the pacific is quite annoying. Shout out to @freerangestats.info for useful blog posts.
jenrichmond.github.io/maps/2025-11...
November 5, 2025 at 2:30 AM
Day 4: my data #30DayMapChallenge
Today I learned that #rstats 📦 `tidygeocoder` is super useful for pulling lat/long coordinates and that plotting a world map that centres the pacific is quite annoying. Shout out to @freerangestats.info for useful blog posts.
jenrichmond.github.io/maps/2025-11...
Today I learned that #rstats 📦 `tidygeocoder` is super useful for pulling lat/long coordinates and that plotting a world map that centres the pacific is quite annoying. Shout out to @freerangestats.info for useful blog posts.
jenrichmond.github.io/maps/2025-11...
Reposted by Peter Ellis
Oh, yes! It ensures polygons (like Russia, NZ, Fiji, or Alaska’s Aleutian Islands) don’t get split or wrapped awkwardly around the map. 🌏
November 4, 2025 at 6:42 AM
Oh, yes! It ensures polygons (like Russia, NZ, Fiji, or Alaska’s Aleutian Islands) don’t get split or wrapped awkwardly around the map. 🌏
Reposted by Peter Ellis
I've finally got around to curating a selection of films about the #climate crisis 🎥
There's lot of mediocre climate films out there, but for me these stand out head & shoulders above the rest 🎞️
They make excellent resources for classrooms, lecture halls, or community cinema's 🎬
Thread:🧵Plz RT
There's lot of mediocre climate films out there, but for me these stand out head & shoulders above the rest 🎞️
They make excellent resources for classrooms, lecture halls, or community cinema's 🎬
Thread:🧵Plz RT
November 1, 2025 at 10:17 AM
I've finally got around to curating a selection of films about the #climate crisis 🎥
There's lot of mediocre climate films out there, but for me these stand out head & shoulders above the rest 🎞️
They make excellent resources for classrooms, lecture halls, or community cinema's 🎬
Thread:🧵Plz RT
There's lot of mediocre climate films out there, but for me these stand out head & shoulders above the rest 🎞️
They make excellent resources for classrooms, lecture halls, or community cinema's 🎬
Thread:🧵Plz RT
Reposted by Peter Ellis
@bmj.com Please look at PubPeer comments on an article you published last week. pubpeer.com/publications...
I think your research integrity dept shld act swiftly on this one, given clinical significance.
I'm aware of even more evidence of problems so let me know if this is not sufficient.
I think your research integrity dept shld act swiftly on this one, given clinical significance.
I'm aware of even more evidence of problems so let me know if this is not sufficient.
PubPeer - Prevention of acute myocardial infarction induced heart fail...
There are comments on PubPeer for publication: Prevention of acute myocardial infarction induced heart failure by intracoronary infusion of mesenchymal stem cells: phase 3 randomised clinical trial (P...
pubpeer.com
November 2, 2025 at 3:02 PM
@bmj.com Please look at PubPeer comments on an article you published last week. pubpeer.com/publications...
I think your research integrity dept shld act swiftly on this one, given clinical significance.
I'm aware of even more evidence of problems so let me know if this is not sufficient.
I think your research integrity dept shld act swiftly on this one, given clinical significance.
I'm aware of even more evidence of problems so let me know if this is not sufficient.
Reposted by Peter Ellis
I did actually look up the causes of death data late last year and blogged here: freerangestats.info/blog/2024/12.... 'Accidents, assaults and self-harm' is indeed the highest relative cause of death in USA. And the impact on life expectancy is amplified because victims are younger.
Death rates by cause of death
I explore death rates by cause of death with OECD data, for the USA and other countries. Causes of death that are relatively high in the USA include assaults, accidents, suicides; diseases of the nerv...
freerangestats.info
November 1, 2025 at 5:54 PM
I did actually look up the causes of death data late last year and blogged here: freerangestats.info/blog/2024/12.... 'Accidents, assaults and self-harm' is indeed the highest relative cause of death in USA. And the impact on life expectancy is amplified because victims are younger.
Reposted by Peter Ellis
Studying sex ratios is just a lot harder than you think: effects are tiny and variation is large.
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/10/31/s...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/10/31/s...
Studying sex ratios is just a lot harder than you think: effects are tiny and variation is large. | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
October 31, 2025 at 3:47 PM
Studying sex ratios is just a lot harder than you think: effects are tiny and variation is large.
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/10/31/s...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/10/31/s...
#rstats people I'm sure I remember someone had recently developed a package or at least a hack for getting around the fact that geom_ribbon can't map the fill aesthetic to a variable (continuous or not), but now I can't find it, can anyone point me to it?
October 31, 2025 at 9:46 PM
#rstats people I'm sure I remember someone had recently developed a package or at least a hack for getting around the fact that geom_ribbon can't map the fill aesthetic to a variable (continuous or not), but now I can't find it, can anyone point me to it?
I just noticed there are 1,123 people in Australia who claim ancestral links to PItcairn (current population ~50). Anyone know if this is likely to be reasonably accurate ie plausible? From census 2021 tablebuilder.
October 29, 2025 at 7:34 AM
I just noticed there are 1,123 people in Australia who claim ancestral links to PItcairn (current population ~50). Anyone know if this is likely to be reasonably accurate ie plausible? From census 2021 tablebuilder.
Reposted by Peter Ellis
#rstats/ #databs storytime 🧵
I have a good friend who I haven't talked to regularly for a time. While catching up with her, she lamented having to take stats courses for her PhD program (she's in archeology/anthro). I offered to help her study, and she put me off, saying she couldn't ask that.
1/n
I have a good friend who I haven't talked to regularly for a time. While catching up with her, she lamented having to take stats courses for her PhD program (she's in archeology/anthro). I offered to help her study, and she put me off, saying she couldn't ask that.
1/n
October 27, 2025 at 12:49 AM
Reposted by Peter Ellis
I’m seeing some misinformation about pseudo-random number generator best practices going around the internets. Let’s talk about why the pseudo-random number generator seed you use shouldn’t actually have any impact on your results and, consequently, you can choose whatever seed you damn well please.
October 22, 2025 at 7:06 PM
I’m seeing some misinformation about pseudo-random number generator best practices going around the internets. Let’s talk about why the pseudo-random number generator seed you use shouldn’t actually have any impact on your results and, consequently, you can choose whatever seed you damn well please.
Reposted by Peter Ellis
My department (Computer science) is recruiting a postdoc (18 months) on any topics related to trust and AI (could be a philosophical project or a more empirically minded one). Belgian postdoc salaries are competitive. To apply: jobs.unamur.be/emploi.2025-...
18 Months Postdoc in AI and Trust (Social Sciences and Humanities) — UNamur
Faculté d'informatique -
jobs.unamur.be
October 23, 2025 at 7:12 AM
My department (Computer science) is recruiting a postdoc (18 months) on any topics related to trust and AI (could be a philosophical project or a more empirically minded one). Belgian postdoc salaries are competitive. To apply: jobs.unamur.be/emploi.2025-...
I virtually never rebase anything in Git. Beginning stuff should focus on 'it's like track changes for code' and the extreme basics of commit, push, pull request, merge.
October 22, 2025 at 8:35 AM
I virtually never rebase anything in Git. Beginning stuff should focus on 'it's like track changes for code' and the extreme basics of commit, push, pull request, merge.
Reposted by Peter Ellis
Statisticians of Melbourne and environs!
I will be giving a talk (the Belz Lecture) next Monday, 2pm, Melbourne Uni.
The title is "Laws and Orders"
The lecture is free but they want you to sign up. There's also an early career stats showcase with lunch that costs
www.statsoc.org.au/event-6288035
I will be giving a talk (the Belz Lecture) next Monday, 2pm, Melbourne Uni.
The title is "Laws and Orders"
The lecture is free but they want you to sign up. There's also an early career stats showcase with lunch that costs
www.statsoc.org.au/event-6288035
October 21, 2025 at 7:09 AM
Statisticians of Melbourne and environs!
I will be giving a talk (the Belz Lecture) next Monday, 2pm, Melbourne Uni.
The title is "Laws and Orders"
The lecture is free but they want you to sign up. There's also an early career stats showcase with lunch that costs
www.statsoc.org.au/event-6288035
I will be giving a talk (the Belz Lecture) next Monday, 2pm, Melbourne Uni.
The title is "Laws and Orders"
The lecture is free but they want you to sign up. There's also an early career stats showcase with lunch that costs
www.statsoc.org.au/event-6288035
Reposted by Peter Ellis
Another great walkthru of an analysis that seems easy, but, well, most things in data analysis are only easy if you stop thinking about them after the first model (which is sadly the mode). Were I teaching data analysis -at any level- I'd certainly use these posts in class.
Countries with more economic inequality have higher homicide rates. But for any given country, the relationship isn't as strong. This poses a multilevel modelling problem that it's easy to trip over. I tripped, righted (I hope), and blogged about it with #rstats. freerangestats.info/blog/2025/10...
October 20, 2025 at 8:27 PM
Another great walkthru of an analysis that seems easy, but, well, most things in data analysis are only easy if you stop thinking about them after the first model (which is sadly the mode). Were I teaching data analysis -at any level- I'd certainly use these posts in class.
When an airline says a flight will have a slight delay 'due to operational reasons', what are the non-operational reasons that are ruled out by this explanation? Isn't any delay at this point by definition operational?
October 18, 2025 at 9:46 AM
When an airline says a flight will have a slight delay 'due to operational reasons', what are the non-operational reasons that are ruled out by this explanation? Isn't any delay at this point by definition operational?
Countries with more economic inequality have higher homicide rates. But for any given country, the relationship isn't as strong. This poses a multilevel modelling problem that it's easy to trip over. I tripped, righted (I hope), and blogged about it with #rstats. freerangestats.info/blog/2025/10...
October 18, 2025 at 6:56 AM
Countries with more economic inequality have higher homicide rates. But for any given country, the relationship isn't as strong. This poses a multilevel modelling problem that it's easy to trip over. I tripped, righted (I hope), and blogged about it with #rstats. freerangestats.info/blog/2025/10...
Reposted by Peter Ellis
For years I thought the Greek and Roman obsession with public virtue was kind of a scam but now I understand why they valued it so highly, tyranny is indeed pretty bad
October 18, 2025 at 2:34 AM
For years I thought the Greek and Roman obsession with public virtue was kind of a scam but now I understand why they valued it so highly, tyranny is indeed pretty bad
Teaching girls maths leads to jazz, my 1924 author in his 70s argues. (Excellent book BTW even if its judgements are sometimes a little questionable)
October 18, 2025 at 12:12 AM
Teaching girls maths leads to jazz, my 1924 author in his 70s argues. (Excellent book BTW even if its judgements are sometimes a little questionable)
History is full of interesting snippets. This from a 1924 reminiscence of London in the 1850s and 1860s. I wonder what else made up Miss Holt's story.
October 17, 2025 at 11:17 PM
History is full of interesting snippets. This from a 1924 reminiscence of London in the 1850s and 1860s. I wonder what else made up Miss Holt's story.
Reposted by Peter Ellis
Great to see @significancemag.bsky.social on bsky.
The "kiss effect" on TV - what happens to ratings when a will-they-won't-they couple finally gets together?
Also: bad stats around UPFs, agriculture + climate, and the best time for a coffee break...
All this and heaps more in the November double issue: ow.ly/6RTO50XcgRF
Also: bad stats around UPFs, agriculture + climate, and the best time for a coffee break...
All this and heaps more in the November double issue: ow.ly/6RTO50XcgRF
October 17, 2025 at 3:04 PM
Great to see @significancemag.bsky.social on bsky.