Chris Parker
@chrisjparker.bsky.social
Senior Analyst, climate science and data lead @thecccuk.bsky.social - UK Climate Change Risk Assessment. "that uk hydrologist guy who knows about extremes"
Hydrologist and climate scientist. Opinions are my own.
Hydrologist and climate scientist. Opinions are my own.
Pinned
Proposed methodology for the Fourth Climate Change Risk Assessment - Independent Assessment (CCRA4-IA) - Climate Change Committee
The Climate Change Committee (CCC) has now started the Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk that will underpin…
www.theccc.org.uk
Read about our proposed methodology for the Fourth UK Climate Change Risk Assessment. It includes a new approach for considering future climate change.
www.theccc.org.uk/publication/...
www.theccc.org.uk/publication/...
@ayeshatandon.carbonbrief.org and @rtmcswee.carbonbrief.org do you have any plans to update the supporting datases for 2025 from this excellent analysis?
interactive.carbonbrief.org/attribution-...
interactive.carbonbrief.org/attribution-...
Mapped: How climate change affects extreme weather around the world - Carbon Brief
Attribution studies calculate whether, and by how much, climate change affected the intensity, frequency or impact of extremes – Carbon Brief has mapped every published study on how climate change has...
interactive.carbonbrief.org
October 24, 2025 at 10:06 AM
@ayeshatandon.carbonbrief.org and @rtmcswee.carbonbrief.org do you have any plans to update the supporting datases for 2025 from this excellent analysis?
interactive.carbonbrief.org/attribution-...
interactive.carbonbrief.org/attribution-...
Incredible opportunity to undertake vital research on UK drought projections with an amazing supervisory team!
🔥 #PhD Opportunity!
Shape how we adapt to future droughts driven by climate change.
Funded studentship, Jan 2026 start. Apply now!
Please share with anyone who is driven to make a difference in #WaterResources, #WaterSecurity and #ClimateChangeAdaptation!
Details and how to apply:
Shape how we adapt to future droughts driven by climate change.
Funded studentship, Jan 2026 start. Apply now!
Please share with anyone who is driven to make a difference in #WaterResources, #WaterSecurity and #ClimateChangeAdaptation!
Details and how to apply:
Search for Postgraduate Scholarships and Other Funding
Search scholarships and funding for postgraduate study at Newcastle University. Find financial support tailored to your course and eligibility.
www.ncl.ac.uk
October 24, 2025 at 9:42 AM
Incredible opportunity to undertake vital research on UK drought projections with an amazing supervisory team!
Reposted by Chris Parker
It's good news that the Government are taking the impacts of climate change seriously and have sought our advice to strengthen adaptation objectives.
Read the letter published today from Baroness Brown, Chair of the Adaptation Committee, to Emma Hardy MP 👇
www.theccc.org.uk/publication/...
Read the letter published today from Baroness Brown, Chair of the Adaptation Committee, to Emma Hardy MP 👇
www.theccc.org.uk/publication/...
Letter: CCC letter to Minister Hardy - advice on the UK's adaptation objectives - Climate Change Committee
www.theccc.org.uk
October 15, 2025 at 8:24 AM
It's good news that the Government are taking the impacts of climate change seriously and have sought our advice to strengthen adaptation objectives.
Read the letter published today from Baroness Brown, Chair of the Adaptation Committee, to Emma Hardy MP 👇
www.theccc.org.uk/publication/...
Read the letter published today from Baroness Brown, Chair of the Adaptation Committee, to Emma Hardy MP 👇
www.theccc.org.uk/publication/...
Reposted by Chris Parker
The people I work with are not stupid people and our climate predictions of 30 years ago of global warming have proved to be accurate. Just saying. www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cp...
September 23, 2025 at 3:24 PM
The people I work with are not stupid people and our climate predictions of 30 years ago of global warming have proved to be accurate. Just saying. www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cp...
Hey Bluesky hivemind, climate modelling data question. Does anyone know where I could find CESM2 and MPI large ensemble annual global mean surface temperature timeseries?
September 15, 2025 at 9:14 AM
Hey Bluesky hivemind, climate modelling data question. Does anyone know where I could find CESM2 and MPI large ensemble annual global mean surface temperature timeseries?
Third heatwave of the summer and it is only the start of July!
🌡️ Heat is building across the UK this week, temperatures could reach 32-33°C during the weekend 👇
July 8, 2025 at 11:33 AM
Third heatwave of the summer and it is only the start of July!
Reposted by Chris Parker
🌡️ Heat is building across the UK this week, temperatures could reach 32-33°C during the weekend 👇
July 8, 2025 at 11:30 AM
🌡️ Heat is building across the UK this week, temperatures could reach 32-33°C during the weekend 👇
The UK hasn't experienced a severe drought since the '90s or an extreme one since the '70s. This has led to complacency in drought preparedness. With climate change, future droughts could be worse than anything previously experienced.
Yorkshire Water have now introduced a hosepipe ban from Friday — the region’s second in three years. Rainfall deficit + warmer weather + population growth + lack of new reservoirs + leaks… www.yorkshirewater.com/your-water/i...
July 8, 2025 at 7:13 AM
The UK hasn't experienced a severe drought since the '90s or an extreme one since the '70s. This has led to complacency in drought preparedness. With climate change, future droughts could be worse than anything previously experienced.
Reposted by Chris Parker
High warming rate fuels record-breaking weather
The longer our measurements, the fewer record-breaking events we should observe.
The opposite is the case - many more records and higher record margins
I summarise the key takeaways of our @natrevearthenviron.nature.com article in a guest post.
The longer our measurements, the fewer record-breaking events we should observe.
The opposite is the case - many more records and higher record margins
I summarise the key takeaways of our @natrevearthenviron.nature.com article in a guest post.
NEW – Guest post: How climate change is fuelling record-breaking extreme weather | @erichfischer.bsky.social
Read here: buff.ly/bnrSvQN
Read here: buff.ly/bnrSvQN
June 13, 2025 at 10:40 AM
High warming rate fuels record-breaking weather
The longer our measurements, the fewer record-breaking events we should observe.
The opposite is the case - many more records and higher record margins
I summarise the key takeaways of our @natrevearthenviron.nature.com article in a guest post.
The longer our measurements, the fewer record-breaking events we should observe.
The opposite is the case - many more records and higher record margins
I summarise the key takeaways of our @natrevearthenviron.nature.com article in a guest post.
Reposted by Chris Parker
New paper in ERL! We study the importance of resolution for the representation of climate extremes.
We use a new generation of km-scale models to show that many important details about temperature and precipitation extremes are hidden at CMIP6-like resolutions.
doi.org/10.1088/1748...
We use a new generation of km-scale models to show that many important details about temperature and precipitation extremes are hidden at CMIP6-like resolutions.
doi.org/10.1088/1748...
June 17, 2025 at 10:56 AM
New paper in ERL! We study the importance of resolution for the representation of climate extremes.
We use a new generation of km-scale models to show that many important details about temperature and precipitation extremes are hidden at CMIP6-like resolutions.
doi.org/10.1088/1748...
We use a new generation of km-scale models to show that many important details about temperature and precipitation extremes are hidden at CMIP6-like resolutions.
doi.org/10.1088/1748...
If the recent surface temperature warming is broadly inline with model projections but the models don't project the large change in energy imbalance does that not suggest the climate model sensitivity is too high? Or that sensitivity estimates based on surface temperatures is the wrong metric?
"The doubling of the energy imbalance has come as a shock, because the sophisticated climate models we use largely didn’t predict such a large and rapid change.
Typically, the models forecast less than half of the change we’re seeing in the real world"
#ClimateEmergency
Typically, the models forecast less than half of the change we’re seeing in the real world"
#ClimateEmergency
Earth is trapping much more heat than climate models forecast – and the rate has doubled in 20 years
Real world measurements of how much extra heat the Earth is trapping are well beyond most climate models. That’s a real problem.
theconversation.com
June 28, 2025 at 7:55 AM
If the recent surface temperature warming is broadly inline with model projections but the models don't project the large change in energy imbalance does that not suggest the climate model sensitivity is too high? Or that sensitivity estimates based on surface temperatures is the wrong metric?
Reposted by Chris Parker
Updated updated notes on the recent acceleration in the argument about the recent acceleration in warming which may or may not be happening or may only appear to be happening (or not, you idiot). Either way it appeared in the New York Times.
diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2025/02/16/a...
diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2025/02/16/a...
June 27, 2025 at 4:30 PM
Updated updated notes on the recent acceleration in the argument about the recent acceleration in warming which may or may not be happening or may only appear to be happening (or not, you idiot). Either way it appeared in the New York Times.
diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2025/02/16/a...
diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2025/02/16/a...
Reposted by Chris Parker
⚠️Global warming caused by humans is advancing at 0.27°C per decade – the highest rate since records began.
This is one of the indicators updated every year by over 60 international scientists in the annual Indicators of Global Climate Change report – published today. doi.org/10.5194/essd... /1
This is one of the indicators updated every year by over 60 international scientists in the annual Indicators of Global Climate Change report – published today. doi.org/10.5194/essd... /1
June 19, 2025 at 8:23 AM
⚠️Global warming caused by humans is advancing at 0.27°C per decade – the highest rate since records began.
This is one of the indicators updated every year by over 60 international scientists in the annual Indicators of Global Climate Change report – published today. doi.org/10.5194/essd... /1
This is one of the indicators updated every year by over 60 international scientists in the annual Indicators of Global Climate Change report – published today. doi.org/10.5194/essd... /1
Reposted by Chris Parker
Natural England produce a Fire Severity Index (FSI) but this needs to be promoted more widely across the media.
FSI models potential fire severity *should they occur*, and rises widely across England to *exceptional* levels by next Monday.
FSI models potential fire severity *should they occur*, and rises widely across England to *exceptional* levels by next Monday.
June 19, 2025 at 6:52 AM
Natural England produce a Fire Severity Index (FSI) but this needs to be promoted more widely across the media.
FSI models potential fire severity *should they occur*, and rises widely across England to *exceptional* levels by next Monday.
FSI models potential fire severity *should they occur*, and rises widely across England to *exceptional* levels by next Monday.
Reposted by Chris Parker
A pdf of the paper is now available here: cicero.oslo.no/en/articles/...
Observed trend in Earth energy imbalance may provide a constraint for low climate sensitivity models
Climate models that give a low warming from increases in greenhouse gases do not match satellite measurements. Future warming will likely be worse than thought
cicero.oslo.no
June 16, 2025 at 2:00 PM
A pdf of the paper is now available here: cicero.oslo.no/en/articles/...
Finally! I would like to think my relentless nagging was the gentle nudge that made this happen.
You’ll be pleased to hear that our next model for CMIP7 submission will use a Gregorian calendar…
June 16, 2025 at 8:00 AM
Finally! I would like to think my relentless nagging was the gentle nudge that made this happen.
Reposted by Chris Parker
Happy to share our paper in @science.org 'Observed trend in Earth energy imbalance may provide a constraint for low climate sensitivity models' | Science www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
Observed trend in Earth energy imbalance may provide a constraint for low climate sensitivity models
Climate forcings by greenhouse gases and aerosols cause an imbalance at the top of the atmosphere between the net incoming solar radiation and outgoing longwave radiation from Earth. This Earth energy...
www.science.org
June 12, 2025 at 6:15 PM
Happy to share our paper in @science.org 'Observed trend in Earth energy imbalance may provide a constraint for low climate sensitivity models' | Science www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
Reposted by Chris Parker
🌊 The N.Atlantic has been experiencing extreme T°C in 2023. This situation raises a number of questions: Have we missed something? Do climate models allow us to understand such an event, or have we entered a new climate regime?
We attempted to answer these questions in this study:
rdcu.be/eh0e8
1/14
We attempted to answer these questions in this study:
rdcu.be/eh0e8
1/14
Internal variability effect doped by climate change drove the 2023 marine heat extreme in the North Atlantic
Communications Earth & Environment - The 2023 North Atlantic marine heatwave was driven by an extreme phase of internal atmospheric variability but would have been impossible without the doping...
rdcu.be
April 16, 2025 at 1:16 PM
🌊 The N.Atlantic has been experiencing extreme T°C in 2023. This situation raises a number of questions: Have we missed something? Do climate models allow us to understand such an event, or have we entered a new climate regime?
We attempted to answer these questions in this study:
rdcu.be/eh0e8
1/14
We attempted to answer these questions in this study:
rdcu.be/eh0e8
1/14
Resiting the temptation to engage in an RCP8.5 debate.
June 4, 2025 at 7:23 AM
Resiting the temptation to engage in an RCP8.5 debate.
Reposted by Chris Parker
The preprint for Indicators of Global Climate Change 2024 is now up for public discussion in ESSD.
essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es...
essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es...
Indicators of Global Climate Change 2024: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence
Abstract. In a rapidly changing climate, evidence-based decision-making benefits from up-to-date and timely information. Here we compile monitoring datasets (published here https://doi.org/10.5281/zen...
essd.copernicus.org
May 5, 2025 at 1:04 PM
The preprint for Indicators of Global Climate Change 2024 is now up for public discussion in ESSD.
essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es...
essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es...
Reposted by Chris Parker
This is great! And yes we should f***ing swear more about how we are still neither reducing global emissions to meet agreed targets nor adapting to increasing extreme weather already now happening
US climate scientists need all the help they can get. Including from foul-mouthed comedians! 🤡😱😱
Watch Emmy Award-Winning David Cross team up with Prof Michael Oppenheimer in the US launch of the hit series "Climate Science Translated".
#climate #arresteddevelopment #climatescience
Watch Emmy Award-Winning David Cross team up with Prof Michael Oppenheimer in the US launch of the hit series "Climate Science Translated".
#climate #arresteddevelopment #climatescience
June 3, 2025 at 11:02 AM
This is great! And yes we should f***ing swear more about how we are still neither reducing global emissions to meet agreed targets nor adapting to increasing extreme weather already now happening
Reposted by Chris Parker
This Spring (March-April-May) may end up being the driest on record for the UK.
This would also make it the driest of any season in a dataset that goes back to 1836.
Spring in 1852 currently holds the record for driest season at 100.7 mm averaged across the UK.
www.bbc.co.uk/weather/arti...
This would also make it the driest of any season in a dataset that goes back to 1836.
Spring in 1852 currently holds the record for driest season at 100.7 mm averaged across the UK.
www.bbc.co.uk/weather/arti...
UK weather: Spring may become driest on record with no rain in sight
There has been a lack of rainfall in many parts of the UK so far this spring and there is little or no rain in the immediate forecast.
www.bbc.co.uk
May 13, 2025 at 3:17 PM
This Spring (March-April-May) may end up being the driest on record for the UK.
This would also make it the driest of any season in a dataset that goes back to 1836.
Spring in 1852 currently holds the record for driest season at 100.7 mm averaged across the UK.
www.bbc.co.uk/weather/arti...
This would also make it the driest of any season in a dataset that goes back to 1836.
Spring in 1852 currently holds the record for driest season at 100.7 mm averaged across the UK.
www.bbc.co.uk/weather/arti...
Reposted by Chris Parker
Climate impacts will worsen - it is a question of whether they are terrible, really bad or just bad. It is a no brainer to scale up investment in adaptation. This will save money and spur economic activity. Climate resilience is a competitive advantage. www.theccc.org.uk/2025/04/30/t...
The country is not prepared for climate impacts, say advisors - Climate Change Committee
There is now unequivocal evidence that climate change is making extreme weather in the UK more likely and…
www.theccc.org.uk
April 30, 2025 at 6:00 AM
Climate impacts will worsen - it is a question of whether they are terrible, really bad or just bad. It is a no brainer to scale up investment in adaptation. This will save money and spur economic activity. Climate resilience is a competitive advantage. www.theccc.org.uk/2025/04/30/t...
Daily record in Helsinki (±3days) shattered by more than 5°C! Reminder, record shattering events will occur with increasing frequency and severity in a warming climate.
Yesterday's maximum temperature in Helsinki Kaisaniemi - 18.7 °C - far exceeds anything previously measured at this time of the year during the 181-year period of record.
Here are maximum temperatures within ±3 days of yesterday. The 18.7 °C value is something like 3-3.5 standard deviations.
Here are maximum temperatures within ±3 days of yesterday. The 18.7 °C value is something like 3-3.5 standard deviations.
April 3, 2025 at 9:22 AM
Daily record in Helsinki (±3days) shattered by more than 5°C! Reminder, record shattering events will occur with increasing frequency and severity in a warming climate.
Reposted by Chris Parker
Looking for a new postdoc position in climate?
Help us build a reanalysis-based storyline approach to consider how individual extreme events and their impacts are altered in different climates.
Based in Edinburgh as part of collaborative project:
elxw.fa.em3.oraclecloud.com/hcmUI/Candid...
Help us build a reanalysis-based storyline approach to consider how individual extreme events and their impacts are altered in different climates.
Based in Edinburgh as part of collaborative project:
elxw.fa.em3.oraclecloud.com/hcmUI/Candid...
Postdoctoral Researcher in impact attribution from extreme weather events
We seek a postdoctoral research associate (PDRA) for a 33-month position to work on the UK NERC-funded pushing the frontiers grant “Attributable impacts from extreme weather events”.
elxw.fa.em3.oraclecloud.com
March 21, 2025 at 5:11 PM
Looking for a new postdoc position in climate?
Help us build a reanalysis-based storyline approach to consider how individual extreme events and their impacts are altered in different climates.
Based in Edinburgh as part of collaborative project:
elxw.fa.em3.oraclecloud.com/hcmUI/Candid...
Help us build a reanalysis-based storyline approach to consider how individual extreme events and their impacts are altered in different climates.
Based in Edinburgh as part of collaborative project:
elxw.fa.em3.oraclecloud.com/hcmUI/Candid...