Really interesting figure in the
@copernicusecmwf.bsky.social Global Climate Highlights 2024.
1877-78 really stands out as an extreme years. This is the period of the 1876-78 global famine that caused an estimated 50million death.
climate.copernicus.eu/global-clima...

The paper highlights this point:

'Naturally occurring' really doesn't work as this doesn't differentiate between naturally occurring methane emissions from natural wetlands and those produced by human activities.

From my reading of the 2015 report <4°C by 2100 could be seen as the current policy baseline. However, <5°C can't be discounted when accounting for uncertainties. Including projections of current policy emissions in 2030 (~60Gt/yr) in figure 3.3 would help to illustrate this point.

According to ERA5 data there have been more days in 2024 with temperatures exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels than any other year. 2024 will potentially be the first year with no daily temperatures below 1.25°C.

The UK is not on track to meet the 2030s NDC based on our latest progress report.
tinyurl.com/ms3stp7w
Climate legislation has been in place since 2008. The positive case for climate action has been made by both sides of the political spectrum and climate mitigation maintains strong public support.

I believe they use scenarios out to 2100. I used their 2023 data for our assessment of GWLs that we will be using for the next UK Climate Change Risk Assessment.
zenodo.org/records/1091...

www.theccc.org.uk/publication/...

I have been thinking about the 1876-78 multiyear droughts and the associated spike in global temperatures. What can this tell us about the range of variability and can warming enhance this variability? journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...