Iain MacGilleBhràith
@aeonmach.bsky.social
I LIKE a *lot* of shit: sci & tech (my day job!), environment & energy (ecomodernism), politics (~moderate, social-liberalism), culture & language(s), outdoors (mountains, cycling/MTB, sailing), travel, nuance & irony.
I HATE black-&-white simplism!
I HATE black-&-white simplism!
Reposted by Iain MacGilleBhràith
To quote Samuel Johnson “when a man is tired of FIFA Peace Prize jokes, he is tired of the internet”.
(Yes this joke is gendered; Johnson was a sexist old man.)
(Yes this joke is gendered; Johnson was a sexist old man.)
January 3, 2026 at 8:04 PM
To quote Samuel Johnson “when a man is tired of FIFA Peace Prize jokes, he is tired of the internet”.
(Yes this joke is gendered; Johnson was a sexist old man.)
(Yes this joke is gendered; Johnson was a sexist old man.)
He literally hasn‘t *explicitly* backed it; he has explicitly “reiterated“ his “support for international law”.
But he’s done so in a pretty ambiguous way (the opposite of explicit) while also noting his criticism of the Maduro regime.
But its manager-trying-to-placate-everyone messaging is… 🙄
But he’s done so in a pretty ambiguous way (the opposite of explicit) while also noting his criticism of the Maduro regime.
But its manager-trying-to-placate-everyone messaging is… 🙄
Keir Starmer explicitly backs Trump's attack on Venezuela.
Says he has "long supported" getting rid of Maduro, who is an "illegitimate President" and "we shed no tears about the end of his regime".
Says he has "long supported" getting rid of Maduro, who is an "illegitimate President" and "we shed no tears about the end of his regime".
January 3, 2026 at 8:20 PM
He literally hasn‘t *explicitly* backed it; he has explicitly “reiterated“ his “support for international law”.
But he’s done so in a pretty ambiguous way (the opposite of explicit) while also noting his criticism of the Maduro regime.
But its manager-trying-to-placate-everyone messaging is… 🙄
But he’s done so in a pretty ambiguous way (the opposite of explicit) while also noting his criticism of the Maduro regime.
But its manager-trying-to-placate-everyone messaging is… 🙄
To quote Samuel Johnson “when a man is tired of FIFA Peace Prize jokes, he is tired of the internet”.
(Yes this joke is gendered; Johnson was a sexist old man.)
(Yes this joke is gendered; Johnson was a sexist old man.)
January 3, 2026 at 8:04 PM
To quote Samuel Johnson “when a man is tired of FIFA Peace Prize jokes, he is tired of the internet”.
(Yes this joke is gendered; Johnson was a sexist old man.)
(Yes this joke is gendered; Johnson was a sexist old man.)
Reposted by Iain MacGilleBhràith
If he carries on like this it's going to make the FIFA Peace Prize look ridiculous
January 3, 2026 at 9:42 AM
If he carries on like this it's going to make the FIFA Peace Prize look ridiculous
But remember he aced the cognitive tests and does not have dementia! It’s just easy to forget things… 👍
January 3, 2026 at 11:38 AM
But remember he aced the cognitive tests and does not have dementia! It’s just easy to forget things… 👍
Reposted by Iain MacGilleBhràith
Trump isn’t predictable or consistent, but this particular action *would* be consistent with the emergence of a G2+1 order where Washington and Beijing, with Moscow as a junior partner, give each other free rein in their purported spheres of influence.
This will go down well in Moscow and Beijing. Goodbye, international order.
www.reuters.com/world/americ...
www.reuters.com/world/americ...
Trump says Venezuela's Maduro captured after strikes
The U.S. has struck Venezuela and captured its President Nicolas Maduro, who has been taken out of the country, President Donald Trump said on Saturday.
www.reuters.com
January 3, 2026 at 10:45 AM
Trump isn’t predictable or consistent, but this particular action *would* be consistent with the emergence of a G2+1 order where Washington and Beijing, with Moscow as a junior partner, give each other free rein in their purported spheres of influence.
Reposted by Iain MacGilleBhràith
Maduro is a brutal and oppressive dictator of Venezuela.
Trump has no legitimate legal basis for military action against Venezuela under United States or international law.
Both of those facts are simultaneously true.
Trump has no legitimate legal basis for military action against Venezuela under United States or international law.
Both of those facts are simultaneously true.
January 3, 2026 at 9:00 AM
Maduro is a brutal and oppressive dictator of Venezuela.
Trump has no legitimate legal basis for military action against Venezuela under United States or international law.
Both of those facts are simultaneously true.
Trump has no legitimate legal basis for military action against Venezuela under United States or international law.
Both of those facts are simultaneously true.
Reposted by Iain MacGilleBhràith
Note the date.
Plausible worst case scenario with Venezuela in four steps:
1. Rubio and Venezuelan exiles sell the idea of decapitation strikes against Maduro to Trump as the one big thing that solves Venezuela, cartels and Cuba for the US.
1. Rubio and Venezuelan exiles sell the idea of decapitation strikes against Maduro to Trump as the one big thing that solves Venezuela, cartels and Cuba for the US.
January 3, 2026 at 10:30 AM
Note the date.
Reposted by Iain MacGilleBhràith
"tell me we didn't just fire a dozen $500,000 missiles at a $200 camel"
"sir, no evidence of any camel present, sir!"
"sir, no evidence of any camel present, sir!"
December 26, 2025 at 7:17 PM
"tell me we didn't just fire a dozen $500,000 missiles at a $200 camel"
"sir, no evidence of any camel present, sir!"
"sir, no evidence of any camel present, sir!"
Reposted by Iain MacGilleBhràith
"Welcome to Decline" -- still one of my favourite graphs from last year. In the late 1970s, Britain's economic fate very clearly split in two. How much you blame Thatcher will depend on your politics, but her leadership is useful to understand the timing. tomforth.co.uk/welcometodec...
January 2, 2026 at 6:15 PM
"Welcome to Decline" -- still one of my favourite graphs from last year. In the late 1970s, Britain's economic fate very clearly split in two. How much you blame Thatcher will depend on your politics, but her leadership is useful to understand the timing. tomforth.co.uk/welcometodec...
Reposted by Iain MacGilleBhràith
More evidence that Labour is massively under-utilising Thatcher as an argument.
"Welcome to Decline" -- still one of my favourite graphs from last year. In the late 1970s, Britain's economic fate very clearly split in two. How much you blame Thatcher will depend on your politics, but her leadership is useful to understand the timing. tomforth.co.uk/welcometodec...
January 2, 2026 at 10:01 PM
More evidence that Labour is massively under-utilising Thatcher as an argument.
“Chief political correspondent” at The Independent; when the Editor’s order to rent a tool is fulfilled multiple ways…
PS I have not used civility to mask my opinion here 👍
PS I have not used civility to mask my opinion here 👍
But can anyone tell me what this bit means? “For too long, those fluent in the good grammar of civility have deployed decorum to mask agendas of cruelty.”
January 2, 2026 at 9:39 PM
“Chief political correspondent” at The Independent; when the Editor’s order to rent a tool is fulfilled multiple ways…
PS I have not used civility to mask my opinion here 👍
PS I have not used civility to mask my opinion here 👍
Reposted by Iain MacGilleBhràith
It gets *worse* than the nude deepfakes.
The UK and EU have said nothing.
The UK and EU have said nothing.
NEW: People are using Elon Musk's chatbot, Grok, to alter images to depict real women being sexually abused, humiliated, hurt, and even killed.
futurism.com/future-socie...
futurism.com/future-socie...
Grok Is Being Used to Depict Horrific Violence Against Real Women
People are asking Elon Musk's Grok chatbot to alter images to depict women being sexually abused, humiliated, and even killed.
futurism.com
January 2, 2026 at 9:19 PM
It gets *worse* than the nude deepfakes.
The UK and EU have said nothing.
The UK and EU have said nothing.
Reposted by Iain MacGilleBhràith
A good point that media outlets misreport this story if they give agency to the AI Grok itself - which generates contradictory statenents whenever prompted to do so
www.readtpa.com/p/grok-cant-...
www.readtpa.com/p/grok-cant-...
Grok Can't Apologize. Grok Isn't Sentient. So Why Do Headlines Keep Saying It Did?
Elon Musk’s chatbot has been “undressing” women and children in public. Journalists are letting xAI off the hook by pretending the bot is responsible.
www.readtpa.com
January 2, 2026 at 7:35 PM
A good point that media outlets misreport this story if they give agency to the AI Grok itself - which generates contradictory statenents whenever prompted to do so
www.readtpa.com/p/grok-cant-...
www.readtpa.com/p/grok-cant-...
Reposted by Iain MacGilleBhràith
Yes I’m sorry about the child porn but some of my professional network are there and I’ve a Substack to promote and the sports is good and a lot of people laugh at my jokes over there….
January 2, 2026 at 6:00 PM
Yes I’m sorry about the child porn but some of my professional network are there and I’ve a Substack to promote and the sports is good and a lot of people laugh at my jokes over there….
Reposted by Iain MacGilleBhràith
And yet, an incredible number of our academic, policy, and media colleagues continue to spend all of their time there, every day. One cannot but help draw conclusions.
Time to get off X and disassociate yourself from this
This does seem just a little bit bad! Idk the sort of thing you’d think politicians might distance themselves from or something!
January 2, 2026 at 2:35 PM
And yet, an incredible number of our academic, policy, and media colleagues continue to spend all of their time there, every day. One cannot but help draw conclusions.
It’s an interesting story: Le Verrier had already *successfully* predicted the existence of Uranus - subsequently discovered.
He then went on to theorise ‘Vulcan’. And it was ‘discovered’ multiple times!!
But it was just an artifact of a failure of Newtonian mechanics…
There’s a good book - see👇
He then went on to theorise ‘Vulcan’. And it was ‘discovered’ multiple times!!
But it was just an artifact of a failure of Newtonian mechanics…
There’s a good book - see👇
January 2, 2026 at 10:34 AM
It’s an interesting story: Le Verrier had already *successfully* predicted the existence of Uranus - subsequently discovered.
He then went on to theorise ‘Vulcan’. And it was ‘discovered’ multiple times!!
But it was just an artifact of a failure of Newtonian mechanics…
There’s a good book - see👇
He then went on to theorise ‘Vulcan’. And it was ‘discovered’ multiple times!!
But it was just an artifact of a failure of Newtonian mechanics…
There’s a good book - see👇
Since I see the Begum debate is still raging 👇
I think the debate would be better if people would address these points (and their biases for/against) more explicitly 🤷♂️
I think the debate would be better if people would address these points (and their biases for/against) more explicitly 🤷♂️
As in many things, I‘m interested in the meta angles, and here ISTM that the Shamima Begum case is a multi-faceted clusterfuck of a Rorschach Test of views on UK citizenship/nationality (& religion & racism), justice & angles of age/sex/criminal liability/coercion etc etc…
…anything I’ve missed? 🤔
…anything I’ve missed? 🤔
European human rights court questions UK decision to strip Shamima Begum of citizenship
January 2, 2026 at 10:05 AM
Since I see the Begum debate is still raging 👇
I think the debate would be better if people would address these points (and their biases for/against) more explicitly 🤷♂️
I think the debate would be better if people would address these points (and their biases for/against) more explicitly 🤷♂️
Reposted by Iain MacGilleBhràith
Would love to see more people on LinkedIn with 'non-strategic leader and non-systems thinker' in their bio.
Like, just really focused on tactical execution and solving specific things reliably.
Like, just really focused on tactical execution and solving specific things reliably.
January 1, 2026 at 10:23 PM
Would love to see more people on LinkedIn with 'non-strategic leader and non-systems thinker' in their bio.
Like, just really focused on tactical execution and solving specific things reliably.
Like, just really focused on tactical execution and solving specific things reliably.
Reposted by Iain MacGilleBhràith
Hi Americans. Lots of you follow me on here so I have some questions about what I see in your films. Please assist - I will add as I think of more:
January 1, 2026 at 8:30 PM
Hi Americans. Lots of you follow me on here so I have some questions about what I see in your films. Please assist - I will add as I think of more:
Bliadhn’ Ùr Mhath!
Or Bliadhna Mhath Ùr if you only want a new good year… which seems not unreasonable! 🤔😂
Or Bliadhna Mhath Ùr if you only want a new good year… which seems not unreasonable! 🤔😂
January 1, 2026 at 12:08 AM
Bliadhn’ Ùr Mhath!
Or Bliadhna Mhath Ùr if you only want a new good year… which seems not unreasonable! 🤔😂
Or Bliadhna Mhath Ùr if you only want a new good year… which seems not unreasonable! 🤔😂
Exactly: the Telegraph’s ever more shrill clickbait mission to categorise things as woke - and its creeping purity spiral - reminds me of the Daily Mail’s similar much-derided mission to categorise everything as causing cancer (and here *purity* very apt) - see also next post 😏
The Telegraph's big book of woke things reaches Zulu (1964)
December 31, 2025 at 8:48 PM
Exactly: the Telegraph’s ever more shrill clickbait mission to categorise things as woke - and its creeping purity spiral - reminds me of the Daily Mail’s similar much-derided mission to categorise everything as causing cancer (and here *purity* very apt) - see also next post 😏
As in many things, I‘m interested in the meta angles, and here ISTM that the Shamima Begum case is a multi-faceted clusterfuck of a Rorschach Test of views on UK citizenship/nationality (& religion & racism), justice & angles of age/sex/criminal liability/coercion etc etc…
…anything I’ve missed? 🤔
…anything I’ve missed? 🤔
European human rights court questions UK decision to strip Shamima Begum of citizenship
European human rights court questions UK decision to strip Shamima Begum of citizenship
Begum’s lawyers argue she was child trafficking victim when she travelled to live under IS in Syria in 2015
The European court of human rights has questioned the UK government over its 2019 decision to remove Shamima Begum’s British citizenship.
Lawyers in Europe have asked how Begum’s treatment complies with the UK’s responsibilities to victims of trafficking. Continue reading...
www.theguardian.com
December 31, 2025 at 7:40 PM
As in many things, I‘m interested in the meta angles, and here ISTM that the Shamima Begum case is a multi-faceted clusterfuck of a Rorschach Test of views on UK citizenship/nationality (& religion & racism), justice & angles of age/sex/criminal liability/coercion etc etc…
…anything I’ve missed? 🤔
…anything I’ve missed? 🤔
Reposted by Iain MacGilleBhràith
Predictions for British politics in 2026 will be even tougher than usual because I think we are potentially near inflection points for both Lab and Con - if current steep declines continue, that will soon provoke leadership crisis/challenge which will change poll dynamics.
A reminder of yesterday's post reviewing last year's Christmas predictions for 2025. I will start a new prediction thread for 2026 about a week from now. If there's a prediction you'd like me to make, post it in the replies here!
New Swingometer post! I review the preditions I made last Christmas about politics in 2025 and try and draw some lessons from my various blunders and missteps:
swingometer.substack.com/p/my-2025-pr...
swingometer.substack.com/p/my-2025-pr...
December 28, 2025 at 7:28 PM
Predictions for British politics in 2026 will be even tougher than usual because I think we are potentially near inflection points for both Lab and Con - if current steep declines continue, that will soon provoke leadership crisis/challenge which will change poll dynamics.