Iain MacGilleBhràith
@aeonmach.bsky.social
I LIKE a *lot* of shit: sci & tech (my day job!), environment & energy (ecomodernism), politics (~moderate, social-liberalism), culture & language(s), outdoors (mountains, cycling/MTB, sailing), travel, nuance & irony.
I HATE black-&-white simplism!
I HATE black-&-white simplism!
Read this and *then read the second post*.
Although I’d quibble it’s chicken and egg: we didn’t because we *already* were 🤷♂️
Although I’d quibble it’s chicken and egg: we didn’t because we *already* were 🤷♂️
We should have treated the election of Trump in 2016 was the seriousness of 9/11.
It should have been a crisis that forced us to rethink Brexit.
We should have spent the last nine years de-risking America and more deeply integration with our European allies.
This was all foreseeable.
It should have been a crisis that forced us to rethink Brexit.
We should have spent the last nine years de-risking America and more deeply integration with our European allies.
This was all foreseeable.
January 19, 2026 at 10:43 AM
Read this and *then read the second post*.
Although I’d quibble it’s chicken and egg: we didn’t because we *already* were 🤷♂️
Although I’d quibble it’s chicken and egg: we didn’t because we *already* were 🤷♂️
Today couldn’t get any madde…
…oh sorry no:
breaking news 👇
…oh sorry no:
breaking news 👇
Russia says President Putin has been invited to join Trump’s Board of Peace for Gaza.
Astonishing to invite one of history’s most egregious warmongers on to a peace board. The international rules are already in the bin.
Astonishing to invite one of history’s most egregious warmongers on to a peace board. The international rules are already in the bin.
January 19, 2026 at 10:34 AM
Today couldn’t get any madde…
…oh sorry no:
breaking news 👇
…oh sorry no:
breaking news 👇
That explains the tone: caught between an icy rock and a hard place…
Invite went to political correspondents as it was meant to be a cost of living press conference which will now clearly be dominated by Greenland…
January 19, 2026 at 10:30 AM
That explains the tone: caught between an icy rock and a hard place…
Reposted by Iain MacGilleBhràith
John is right, and I should add the main issue we have today is doing the stalling for time without the rearmament.
Subtweet at half of this website: the consensus among contemporary historians is that the UK's actions in the late 1930s (rapid re-armament while diplomatically stalling for time) were reasonable in the context, with the genuine failure having been "not starting to re-arm five years before".
January 19, 2026 at 9:52 AM
John is right, and I should add the main issue we have today is doing the stalling for time without the rearmament.
Reposted by Iain MacGilleBhràith
Subtweet at half of this website: the consensus among contemporary historians is that the UK's actions in the late 1930s (rapid re-armament while diplomatically stalling for time) were reasonable in the context, with the genuine failure having been "not starting to re-arm five years before".
January 19, 2026 at 9:12 AM
Subtweet at half of this website: the consensus among contemporary historians is that the UK's actions in the late 1930s (rapid re-armament while diplomatically stalling for time) were reasonable in the context, with the genuine failure having been "not starting to re-arm five years before".
Reposted by Iain MacGilleBhràith
Starmer's prob is that this sounds like a holding speech in the midst of a huge realignment (or, more accurately,a nutter President causing chaos). Fair dos. But ppl will also hear very Starmer-esque denial of the need for agility & imagination. The moment demands v. rare skills (that he hasn't got)
January 19, 2026 at 9:45 AM
Starmer's prob is that this sounds like a holding speech in the midst of a huge realignment (or, more accurately,a nutter President causing chaos). Fair dos. But ppl will also hear very Starmer-esque denial of the need for agility & imagination. The moment demands v. rare skills (that he hasn't got)
“Who is it that can tell me who I am?”
Lear, Act 1, Scene 4
Lear, Act 1, Scene 4
I see that King Lear is on the Royal Exchange this year. "Lear is a searing portrait of a king unable to distinguish truth from lies. As the storm rises and night falls, language, identity and meaning break down completely." www.royalexchange.co.uk/event/king-l...
January 19, 2026 at 10:13 AM
“Who is it that can tell me who I am?”
Lear, Act 1, Scene 4
Lear, Act 1, Scene 4
Reposted by Iain MacGilleBhràith
I’m a glass half full guy so in a - genuine - attempt to take something from this:
at least we have some clarity (if we even needed it 😏) that, yes, the old world-order is gone…
(But otherwise: quite!)
at least we have some clarity (if we even needed it 😏) that, yes, the old world-order is gone…
(But otherwise: quite!)
It's not even 9am and already I've seen Trump's mad massive to the Norwegians and Musk musing on buying Ryanair. It's going to be a LONG week.
January 19, 2026 at 10:08 AM
I’m a glass half full guy so in a - genuine - attempt to take something from this:
at least we have some clarity (if we even needed it 😏) that, yes, the old world-order is gone…
(But otherwise: quite!)
at least we have some clarity (if we even needed it 😏) that, yes, the old world-order is gone…
(But otherwise: quite!)
Reposted by Iain MacGilleBhràith
Just a reminder that as of now, Iran is still run by cruel theocrats, Venezuela is still run by far-left socialists, Russia is still run by a destructive dictatorship, and Ukraine is still run by a vibrant democracy.
January 19, 2026 at 9:47 AM
Just a reminder that as of now, Iran is still run by cruel theocrats, Venezuela is still run by far-left socialists, Russia is still run by a destructive dictatorship, and Ukraine is still run by a vibrant democracy.
Reposted by Iain MacGilleBhràith
It's not the biggest issue today, but this statement should be given in Parliament.
This isn't fuddy-duddyism. It allows MPs to ask questions, puts other parties on the record, and, most importantly, doesn't allow a PM to pick the audience: a power that Starmer does not abuse, but future PMs will.
This isn't fuddy-duddyism. It allows MPs to ask questions, puts other parties on the record, and, most importantly, doesn't allow a PM to pick the audience: a power that Starmer does not abuse, but future PMs will.
January 19, 2026 at 9:02 AM
It's not the biggest issue today, but this statement should be given in Parliament.
This isn't fuddy-duddyism. It allows MPs to ask questions, puts other parties on the record, and, most importantly, doesn't allow a PM to pick the audience: a power that Starmer does not abuse, but future PMs will.
This isn't fuddy-duddyism. It allows MPs to ask questions, puts other parties on the record, and, most importantly, doesn't allow a PM to pick the audience: a power that Starmer does not abuse, but future PMs will.
Reposted by Iain MacGilleBhràith
This was obvious after J6. Once someone attempts an insurrection they are not your party colleague but an enemy of the state and you should want them jailed for life as a minimum.
The US has a 25th Amendment and an impeachment process but because cowardice is the defining characteristic of modern right wing politics, neither of these things will be exercised, even as this is the most glaring example of their being needed.
If this text is real (no reason to think it isn’t) we have to accept that the only solution here is Congress doing its job. He cannot be a president in this deteriorating mental state. But Congress won’t act.
We’re f*cked
We’re f*cked
January 19, 2026 at 7:39 AM
This was obvious after J6. Once someone attempts an insurrection they are not your party colleague but an enemy of the state and you should want them jailed for life as a minimum.
Reposted by Iain MacGilleBhràith
Quite apart from the obvious narcissistic derangement, a) the Norwegian government does not award the peace prize; and b) there is a written document - the US agreed with Denmark not to pursue territorial claims to Greenland
![NEW: @potus letter to @jonasgahrstore links @NobelPrize to Greenland, reiterates threats, and is forwarded by the NSC staff to multiple European ambassadors in Washington. I obtained the text from multiple officials:
Dear Ambassador:
President Trump has asked that the following message, shared with Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre, be forwarded to your [named head of government/state]
“Dear Jonas: Considering your Country decided not to give me the Nobel Peace Prize for having stopped 8 Wars PLUS, I no longer feel an obligation to think purely of Peace, although it will always be predominant, but can now think about what is good and proper for the United States of America. Denmark cannot protect that land from Russia or China, and why do they have a “right of ownership” anyway? There are no written documents, it’s only that a boat landed there hundreds of years ago, but we had boats landing there, also. I have done more for NATO than any other person since its founding, and now, NATO should do something for the United States. The World is not secure unless we have Complete and Total Control of Greenland. Thank you! President DJT”](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:hbpefio3f5csc44msmbgioxz/bafkreie7itpptx3xbxhpsnlaqmwk752h7pcrion5ija2apksljtax2adx4@jpeg)
January 19, 2026 at 8:28 AM
Quite apart from the obvious narcissistic derangement, a) the Norwegian government does not award the peace prize; and b) there is a written document - the US agreed with Denmark not to pursue territorial claims to Greenland
Reposted by Iain MacGilleBhràith
A source confirms to me that this disturbing letter from Trump to the Norwegian PM is real.
Not the sort of letter committed to paper by a well man. "Considering your Country decided not to give me the Nobel Peace Prize for having stopped 8 Wars PLUS, I no longer feel an obligation to think purely of Peace"
January 19, 2026 at 7:32 AM
A source confirms to me that this disturbing letter from Trump to the Norwegian PM is real.
Reposted by Iain MacGilleBhràith
This is about Greenland, but it's also about Iceland
Starmer framing Greenland as a Costa Livin issue. Rail fares! The price of groceries! Bizarre segue.
January 19, 2026 at 9:31 AM
This is about Greenland, but it's also about Iceland
Reposted by Iain MacGilleBhràith
Feels like the last few days has led to Europe moving from: "Insane US President who'll be held in check by a sane opposition and institutions -> ride it out for a few years" to "There is no effective US opposition, the institutions have been taken over -> we have to restructure the post-war order".
January 19, 2026 at 8:59 AM
Feels like the last few days has led to Europe moving from: "Insane US President who'll be held in check by a sane opposition and institutions -> ride it out for a few years" to "There is no effective US opposition, the institutions have been taken over -> we have to restructure the post-war order".
Reposted by Iain MacGilleBhràith
This is a very good point. The November 2025 US National Security Strategy never mentions the Arctic at all. The idea that it's a genuine security priority for the Trump administration is not credible.
January 18, 2026 at 6:07 PM
This is a very good point. The November 2025 US National Security Strategy never mentions the Arctic at all. The idea that it's a genuine security priority for the Trump administration is not credible.
Reposted by Iain MacGilleBhràith
All of these people - Mogg, Farage, Carswell, Jenrick, Hannan and the rest need to be forever reminded of what they backed and supported
January 18, 2026 at 5:41 PM
All of these people - Mogg, Farage, Carswell, Jenrick, Hannan and the rest need to be forever reminded of what they backed and supported
Reposted by Iain MacGilleBhràith
Deutsche Bank here with the good stuff.
Game on.
Game on.
January 18, 2026 at 6:59 PM
Deutsche Bank here with the good stuff.
Game on.
Game on.
Reposted by Iain MacGilleBhràith
Reposted by Iain MacGilleBhràith
It continues to be a bad failure that essentially there's a policy debate that is obvious to you if you read a business newspaper OR the gov dot uk website or the MI5 threat update OR a decent policy Substack is basically invisible on the BBC and in 90 per cent of Commons debates.
Maybe we can, oh I dunno, start to have a conversation with voters about this? The problem is not going to go away.
The way politics is being conducted by both the tories and Labour seems surreal to me. We have a lunatic in the WH who simply cannot be relied on to be an ally, indeed the opposite, we need to spend a ton of cash on defence and no-one seems to think voters might need to be, er, readied for all this
January 18, 2026 at 1:54 PM
It continues to be a bad failure that essentially there's a policy debate that is obvious to you if you read a business newspaper OR the gov dot uk website or the MI5 threat update OR a decent policy Substack is basically invisible on the BBC and in 90 per cent of Commons debates.
Reposted by Iain MacGilleBhràith
Maybe we can, oh I dunno, start to have a conversation with voters about this? The problem is not going to go away.
The way politics is being conducted by both the tories and Labour seems surreal to me. We have a lunatic in the WH who simply cannot be relied on to be an ally, indeed the opposite, we need to spend a ton of cash on defence and no-one seems to think voters might need to be, er, readied for all this
January 18, 2026 at 1:37 PM
Maybe we can, oh I dunno, start to have a conversation with voters about this? The problem is not going to go away.
Reposted by Iain MacGilleBhràith
There's also going to be a lot of cognitive dissonance for some folks in British politics when they discover that France is the UK's closest ally now.
March 4, 2025 at 2:17 PM
There's also going to be a lot of cognitive dissonance for some folks in British politics when they discover that France is the UK's closest ally now.
Reposted by Iain MacGilleBhràith
A lot of people are going to have to get used to the reality that America is no longer our closest ally.
March 4, 2025 at 2:00 PM
A lot of people are going to have to get used to the reality that America is no longer our closest ally.
Reposted by Iain MacGilleBhràith
Kamikaze stuff from Badenoch.
March 4, 2025 at 1:53 PM
Kamikaze stuff from Badenoch.