Adanthar
@adanthar.bsky.social
Semi-retiredly shitposting online on a new blue website
Pinned
Fuck it, tonight it is
the problem with this shutdown from the start was that there was no win condition possible. Like, the idea here was to ask for Obamacare to continue unchanged, ???, Trump literally parties Gatsby style, ???, at no point do you ever get subsidies in a million years.
1/x
the problem with this shutdown from the start was that there was no win condition possible. Like, the idea here was to ask for Obamacare to continue unchanged, ???, Trump literally parties Gatsby style, ???, at no point do you ever get subsidies in a million years.
1/x
what was the god damn point then
November 10, 2025 at 4:53 AM
Fuck it, tonight it is
the problem with this shutdown from the start was that there was no win condition possible. Like, the idea here was to ask for Obamacare to continue unchanged, ???, Trump literally parties Gatsby style, ???, at no point do you ever get subsidies in a million years.
1/x
the problem with this shutdown from the start was that there was no win condition possible. Like, the idea here was to ask for Obamacare to continue unchanged, ???, Trump literally parties Gatsby style, ???, at no point do you ever get subsidies in a million years.
1/x
Entirely true, btw. Having gotten into this weird no win situation in this exact way, there were probably 20-25 Yes votes and they pretty much negotiated who would take the fall among themselves
Doesn’t matter that Schumer voted “no”. He got the Dem caucus on board with caving. THEN the caucus figured out who should vote yes to provide cover for D Sens up for reelection in 2026, who might have been in serious danger of being primaried. 2/
November 10, 2025 at 3:05 AM
Entirely true, btw. Having gotten into this weird no win situation in this exact way, there were probably 20-25 Yes votes and they pretty much negotiated who would take the fall among themselves
the base is going to turn on "Cuck" Schumer very hard but the fact is he had no real win condition at any point during this whole thing (like, really? Trump was gonna let Obamacare subsidies survive??) so...
the actual W they did get was an end to rescissions, maybe*
*or another shutdown in Jan
the actual W they did get was an end to rescissions, maybe*
*or another shutdown in Jan
November 9, 2025 at 9:35 PM
the base is going to turn on "Cuck" Schumer very hard but the fact is he had no real win condition at any point during this whole thing (like, really? Trump was gonna let Obamacare subsidies survive??) so...
the actual W they did get was an end to rescissions, maybe*
*or another shutdown in Jan
the actual W they did get was an end to rescissions, maybe*
*or another shutdown in Jan
mid November now looks pretty much locked in, with the sole remaining variable at whether they can get a guarantee of a vote on the key stuff out of the House
had a tiny bet (because most of it didnt fill) from the start on the shutdown lasting some long number, which I sold a few days ago
if I were a betting man, I would flip short soon with mid November as the end target
if I were a betting man, I would flip short soon with mid November as the end target
November 7, 2025 at 2:58 PM
mid November now looks pretty much locked in, with the sole remaining variable at whether they can get a guarantee of a vote on the key stuff out of the House
If the sandwich hit, you still acquit
MAN WHO THREW SANDWICH IN PROTEST OF TRUMP’S WASHINGTON POLICE SURGE FOUND NOT GUILTY OF ASSAULT ON FEDERAL OFFICER
November 6, 2025 at 7:51 PM
If the sandwich hit, you still acquit
hispanic voters this midterm, at least, will be roughly 20 points more Dem than 2024 as a baseline and could well go much higher
November 5, 2025 at 12:46 PM
hispanic voters this midterm, at least, will be roughly 20 points more Dem than 2024 as a baseline and could well go much higher
2026 and likely 2028 Dem candidate messaging: abundance as policy, ~metaphoric "GOP delenda est" as praxis
November 5, 2025 at 3:48 AM
2026 and likely 2028 Dem candidate messaging: abundance as policy, ~metaphoric "GOP delenda est" as praxis
a casual 500 million dollars has been bet on the next mayor of new york city, compared to 300 million on the entire election cycle of 2020
November 4, 2025 at 8:19 PM
a casual 500 million dollars has been bet on the next mayor of new york city, compared to 300 million on the entire election cycle of 2020
It's always risky to call an election over before it's actually over (ask me how I know), but NYC mayor is extremely over so go ahead and pick up your dollars for 90c.
Source: for Cuomo to have a shot the electorate needs to be under 50% Dem today. good luck with that
Source: for Cuomo to have a shot the electorate needs to be under 50% Dem today. good luck with that
November 4, 2025 at 12:22 PM
It's always risky to call an election over before it's actually over (ask me how I know), but NYC mayor is extremely over so go ahead and pick up your dollars for 90c.
Source: for Cuomo to have a shot the electorate needs to be under 50% Dem today. good luck with that
Source: for Cuomo to have a shot the electorate needs to be under 50% Dem today. good luck with that
we're not going to be fine after this administration - lots of things will be rekt - but one thing about fascism is that it requires at least some initial buy-in from the man on the street, and the media caving to Trump are missing just how ugly things will get with an economy taking big hits
Trump posts his worst-ever net approval rating in a CNN poll this morning, 37% to 63% (-26) s3.documentcloud.org/documents/26...
s3.documentcloud.org
November 3, 2025 at 2:53 PM
we're not going to be fine after this administration - lots of things will be rekt - but one thing about fascism is that it requires at least some initial buy-in from the man on the street, and the media caving to Trump are missing just how ugly things will get with an economy taking big hits
please mr president sir don't ever nuke the filibuster and especially don't ever touch the voter ID button. democrats would HATE the voter ID button with the 2025-28 democratic coalition of *checks notes* every woman with a college degree in america
November 3, 2025 at 2:49 AM
please mr president sir don't ever nuke the filibuster and especially don't ever touch the voter ID button. democrats would HATE the voter ID button with the 2025-28 democratic coalition of *checks notes* every woman with a college degree in america
VA polling basically confirms what I was thinking, which is that Jones needs a +10 Spanberger topline to have a real shot but should get almost exactly that number
I think he wins every time at +12 and loses every time at +8, so this will be close, but have a big position based squarely on the odds
I think he wins every time at +12 and loses every time at +8, so this will be close, but have a big position based squarely on the odds
November 3, 2025 at 2:23 AM
VA polling basically confirms what I was thinking, which is that Jones needs a +10 Spanberger topline to have a real shot but should get almost exactly that number
I think he wins every time at +12 and loses every time at +8, so this will be close, but have a big position based squarely on the odds
I think he wins every time at +12 and loses every time at +8, so this will be close, but have a big position based squarely on the odds
Predictions:
CA Prop 50: D+20 or whatever, don't care. might come in a bit under in an off-year race with preordained results
NY: mildly exciting but only if you've bet on Mamdani losing Staten Island
NJ: an even more boring D+7
VA: Gov +12, LtGov +8, AG...only tossup of the night
CA Prop 50: D+20 or whatever, don't care. might come in a bit under in an off-year race with preordained results
NY: mildly exciting but only if you've bet on Mamdani losing Staten Island
NJ: an even more boring D+7
VA: Gov +12, LtGov +8, AG...only tossup of the night
October 30, 2025 at 10:56 PM
Predictions:
CA Prop 50: D+20 or whatever, don't care. might come in a bit under in an off-year race with preordained results
NY: mildly exciting but only if you've bet on Mamdani losing Staten Island
NJ: an even more boring D+7
VA: Gov +12, LtGov +8, AG...only tossup of the night
CA Prop 50: D+20 or whatever, don't care. might come in a bit under in an off-year race with preordained results
NY: mildly exciting but only if you've bet on Mamdani losing Staten Island
NJ: an even more boring D+7
VA: Gov +12, LtGov +8, AG...only tossup of the night
everybody always fights the last war; one of the ways in which this is self evident is that everyone thinks Hispanic and black men are now permanently moving conservative
meanwhile, the vibes in their communities are *looks around at tear gas*, so that's probably a generational GOP L
meanwhile, the vibes in their communities are *looks around at tear gas*, so that's probably a generational GOP L
actually I'd say that the biggest problem for democrats is that educational polarization and the rural/urban divide are structural secular trends that are impossible to undo by speaking a few different words. may as well order the waves away from shore
the biggest problem for democrats trying to win the senate isn't progressives running in purple seats, it's the reduction of political conflict onto a single nationalized party axis. the erasure of regional differences in the party brand is uniquely bad for a party w concentrated urban membership
October 30, 2025 at 2:44 PM
everybody always fights the last war; one of the ways in which this is self evident is that everyone thinks Hispanic and black men are now permanently moving conservative
meanwhile, the vibes in their communities are *looks around at tear gas*, so that's probably a generational GOP L
meanwhile, the vibes in their communities are *looks around at tear gas*, so that's probably a generational GOP L
Been a very good last several weeks for short term Polymarket bonds heading into an election, always my favorite thing to do
Pretty well positioned, I think, though only spending about half time on it
Pretty well positioned, I think, though only spending about half time on it
October 30, 2025 at 1:17 AM
Been a very good last several weeks for short term Polymarket bonds heading into an election, always my favorite thing to do
Pretty well positioned, I think, though only spending about half time on it
Pretty well positioned, I think, though only spending about half time on it
Reposted by Adanthar
We’re clearly not going to see any productive negotiations on the shutdown at least until NJ/VA elections, so that’s another 9 days. Really curious to see what the national vibes are after that once it’s clear Dems have electoral momentum just as the GOP did after November 2021.
October 26, 2025 at 6:23 PM
We’re clearly not going to see any productive negotiations on the shutdown at least until NJ/VA elections, so that’s another 9 days. Really curious to see what the national vibes are after that once it’s clear Dems have electoral momentum just as the GOP did after November 2021.
horseshoe theory undefeated
Establishment Democrats spent a full year complaining the Left forced them to be “woke.”
But then a left populist, Graham Platner, threatened to win in Maine, so they went right back to trying to cancel someone over old internet posts.
But then a left populist, Graham Platner, threatened to win in Maine, so they went right back to trying to cancel someone over old internet posts.
Democrats Cynically Wield “Wokeness” Against Graham Platner
Establishment Democrats spent a full year complaining the Left forced them to be “woke.” But then a left populist, Graham Platner, threatened to win in Maine, so they went right back to trying to cancel someone over old internet posts.
jacobin.com
October 25, 2025 at 2:39 PM
horseshoe theory undefeated
forgetting the minor nazi whoopsie portion of this race for a moment (because this poll mostly predates it), the fact is that Mills is an ex-governor, pretty popular, and her sole problems are age and decorum. her being down 35 here is a blue tsunami warning for any Dem over 70 or pro-filibuster
October 23, 2025 at 1:39 PM
forgetting the minor nazi whoopsie portion of this race for a moment (because this poll mostly predates it), the fact is that Mills is an ex-governor, pretty popular, and her sole problems are age and decorum. her being down 35 here is a blue tsunami warning for any Dem over 70 or pro-filibuster
Reposted by Adanthar
I like hanging out in my corner of bsky, because the rest of it is filled with people who looked at the last several sets of Dem primaries and decided that the problem was far too much opposition.
oh no, an Old might run vs a 40 year old who looks good on paper that we never heard of 2 weeks ago?
oh no, an Old might run vs a 40 year old who looks good on paper that we never heard of 2 weeks ago?
Schumer is out of his fucking mind. www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnb...
September 3, 2025 at 3:13 PM
I like hanging out in my corner of bsky, because the rest of it is filled with people who looked at the last several sets of Dem primaries and decided that the problem was far too much opposition.
oh no, an Old might run vs a 40 year old who looks good on paper that we never heard of 2 weeks ago?
oh no, an Old might run vs a 40 year old who looks good on paper that we never heard of 2 weeks ago?
Reposted by Adanthar
I hope everyone has learned a valuable lesson today about the perils of vibes-based vetting of populist candidates via cliquish social media ingroup signaling
October 21, 2025 at 7:01 PM
I hope everyone has learned a valuable lesson today about the perils of vibes-based vetting of populist candidates via cliquish social media ingroup signaling
So, Platner:
1A)I think it’s highly likely nobody around him knew it was a Nazi tat; why would they / Croatia lol
1B)the reddit posts are cringe and sometimes bad but not DQing in 2025;
2A)he has an uphill road for the next few months;
2B)Dem primary voters are too enraged to love Mills
1/2
1A)I think it’s highly likely nobody around him knew it was a Nazi tat; why would they / Croatia lol
1B)the reddit posts are cringe and sometimes bad but not DQing in 2025;
2A)he has an uphill road for the next few months;
2B)Dem primary voters are too enraged to love Mills
1/2
October 21, 2025 at 2:38 PM
So, Platner:
1A)I think it’s highly likely nobody around him knew it was a Nazi tat; why would they / Croatia lol
1B)the reddit posts are cringe and sometimes bad but not DQing in 2025;
2A)he has an uphill road for the next few months;
2B)Dem primary voters are too enraged to love Mills
1/2
1A)I think it’s highly likely nobody around him knew it was a Nazi tat; why would they / Croatia lol
1B)the reddit posts are cringe and sometimes bad but not DQing in 2025;
2A)he has an uphill road for the next few months;
2B)Dem primary voters are too enraged to love Mills
1/2
this is certainly a thing that just happened that I hope they cover in law school this year
iyam, they can replace con law with it. worthless class anyway
iyam, they can replace con law with it. worthless class anyway
October 20, 2025 at 10:32 PM
this is certainly a thing that just happened that I hope they cover in law school this year
iyam, they can replace con law with it. worthless class anyway
iyam, they can replace con law with it. worthless class anyway
Reposted by Adanthar
An exclusive analysis of Polymarket data showed that wagers against Trump taking action would've yielded returns similar to the S&P 500 (via Bloomberg Opinion)
Will Trump Do It? It Pays to Bet ‘No’
Polymarket data shows wagers against Trump taking action would have yielded returns similar to the S&P 500. And gambling that he'll actually follow through was a losing proposition.
bloom.bg
October 20, 2025 at 10:30 AM
An exclusive analysis of Polymarket data showed that wagers against Trump taking action would've yielded returns similar to the S&P 500 (via Bloomberg Opinion)
had a tiny bet (because most of it didnt fill) from the start on the shutdown lasting some long number, which I sold a few days ago
if I were a betting man, I would flip short soon with mid November as the end target
if I were a betting man, I would flip short soon with mid November as the end target
October 19, 2025 at 11:15 PM
had a tiny bet (because most of it didnt fill) from the start on the shutdown lasting some long number, which I sold a few days ago
if I were a betting man, I would flip short soon with mid November as the end target
if I were a betting man, I would flip short soon with mid November as the end target
Reposted by Adanthar
I been robbed. All my arts gone.
October 19, 2025 at 2:12 PM
I been robbed. All my arts gone.