Conway Waddington
conwaywaddington.bsky.social
Conway Waddington
@conwaywaddington.bsky.social

Focused on African conflict and security - water wars, UAVs, mercenaries, OSINT stuff.

Political science 45%
Sociology 17%
Yet again, we can't afford to let LLMs become a source of epistemic grounding for society.
Largest study of its kind shows AI assistants misrepresent news content 45% of the time – regardless of language or territory
An intensive international study was coordinated by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) and led by the BBC
www.bbc.co.uk
dawg we are gonna lose a war because ChatGPT has this guy mobilizing divisions that don't exist and tasking real troops with holding mountain passes and ports an LLM hallucinated

Reposted by Conway Waddington

Looks like the FIRMS satellite fire detection system is offline due to the US government shutdown.

Just one more reminder that anyone involved in OSINT or disaster response cannot rely on US space-based assets in any critical role, given the current state of the governing regime in the country.

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We traced an armoured vehicle used in a violent attack in Sudan, all the way back to a location in the middle of Libya's desert.

There it was parked, at a location where we found hundreds of other vehicles parked in rows.

Watch our investigation here:
youtu.be/umaFPlwJUKM

#KeepEyesOnSudan
How we found an RSF military camp in the Libyan desert
YouTube video by CIR - Centre for Information Resilience
youtu.be

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@warmatters.bsky.social @jamesstout.bsky.social
War in Ukraine influence, first images of an optical fiber drone in the Sahel.

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Such a crucially important essay that, honestly, I’ve kinda been waiting for.
Read, read, read!
#drones

warontherocks.com/2025/06/i-fo...
I Fought in Ukraine and Here’s Why FPV Drones Kind of Suck – War on the Rocks
warontherocks.com

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14.06 #Mali
According to a government communique, while returning from a mission yesterday (presumably taking part in the airstrike against FLA fighters near Aguelhok) the Su-24 was forced to ditch in the Niger river near Gao due to "adverse atmospheric conditions"

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NEW | Al Shabaab’s 2025 central Somalia offensive is reshaping the conflict’s dynamics.

Recent territorial gains reflect a campaign to reconnect support zones in central and southern Somalia. 1/6

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An Israeli security official told The Times of Israel, that Mossad *build a #drone base inside Iran*!

“According to the official, Mossad agents set up a drone base on Iranian soil near Tehran. The drones were activated overnight, striking surface-to-surface missile launchers aimed at Israel.”
Israel said to renew strikes on Iran as Trump warns attacks will only get worse
US president calls on Tehran to make nuke deal 'before it's too late' * IDF details strike on underground centrifuge facility at Natanz * Mossad publishes video showing covert actions after activating...
www.timesofisrael.com

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THREAD 🧵

Internal State Department records show that months of warnings have become a reality: The Trump administration’s sudden withdrawal of foreign humanitarian aid has brought about death, violence and unrest. 1/

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A summary worth reading which offers an opportunity for retrospection in the open source research community, as well as to the online behaviour shown in response to this, as harmful words and death threats that have been made, are so not done.

www.404media.co/u-s-denies-p...
U.S. Denies Picking Bombing Targets From Random Twitter Accounts
An anonymous OSINT sleuth mis-identified a quarry as an underground Houthi base. Days later, the Pentagon allegedly struck the site and killed eight people.
www.404media.co

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abolishing the office of net assessment in favor of (checks notes) white supremacy and Operator Culture™️ is... completely fucking insane. these people are going to lose us a goddamn war

www.nytimes.com/2025/03/14/u...
Hegseth Closes Pentagon Office Focused on Future Wars (Gift Article)
The Office of Net Assessment opened more than 50 years ago and developed concepts for possible conflict with U.S. adversaries, including China.
www.nytimes.com

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Fascinating investigtion into the mercenary outfits Congo hired to fight the Rwandan-backed M23 rebel group. www.theguardian.com/global-devel...
Supermarket guards, truck drivers and ‘very big mistakes’: the failed role of western mercenaries in the fall of Goma
An investigation into the DRC’s use of hundreds of hired Romanian fighters reveals how a disorganised operation with untrained recruits became a deadly ‘circus’
www.theguardian.com

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Conspiracists in Nigeria have enjoyed very much US Congressman Scott Perry's allegations that USAID was financing Boko Haram. Sahel military regimes love this theory, too, and the story has eventually been picked and presented as "look, even America says it, our suspicion is vindicated!" 1/

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NEW Congo War Security Review | The UK sanctioned Rwanda and both the EU and UK suspended defense cooperation with Rwanda due to Rwandan support for M23. 1/3

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Head up: A massive mine waste spill is currently killing virtually everything in one of #Zambia's major rivers.

A 🧵: On the 18th of February (1 weeka go) a large mine waste dump (aka tailings dam) began to collapse at the Sino Metals mine in #Chambishi, in Zambia's copperbelt. Huge volumes of...

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Trump admin considering eliminating U.S. Africa Command as part of downsizing, per two U.S. officials & someone familiar with the discussions. Considering moving AFRICOM to a subcommand position under EUCOM.-NBC

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There is a certain subgroup of Gen X/Elder Millenials who grew up when the novelty orangutan pets started attacking their owners and eating their faces off. And those Xennials?

Never forget the news stories.

Ever.

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“A key finding is that tactical drones are inflicting roughly two-thirds of Russian losses…twice as effective as every other weapon in the Ukr arsenal put together…remarkable…for weapons which did not officially exist in the Ukr mil at start of the war” www.forbes.com/sites/davidh...
New RUSI Report: Drones Now Inflicting Two Thirds Of Russian Losses
A report from UK thinktank RUSI acknowledges — slightly grudgingly — that tactical drones are the most lethal weapon in the Ukrainian arsenal and are transforming warfare
www.forbes.com

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"The only path to a viable future is through a disarmament in our relations not only with one another but also with the rest of the living planet. The alternative unfolds before us, even if we choose to avert our eyes." www.nytimes.com/2025/02/18/o...
Opinion | War Is Killing The Planet
In pursuit of empire and domination, of territorial conquest or racial and religious supremacy, wars stand as a stubborn driver of planetary harm.
www.nytimes.com

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New @planet.com Skysat imagery shows the fires at the Khartoum Refinery and our initial rapid assessment indicates roughly 19 storage tanks destroyed, putting the total number of damaged tanks to over 70 since the start of the #Sudan war, leaving a toxic footprint to deal with in the aftermath

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M23 seize key DR Congo town of Masisi
M23 seize key DR Congo town of Masisi
It is the second town seized by the group in as many days in the mineral-rich North Kivu province.
www.bbc.com

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Venâncio will land in Maputo at 8h05. What will happen next? VM invited all authorities to attend alongside his supporters. Fascinating rebound of events 🔥

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Insane footage shows Ukrainian drone equipped with shotguns shooting down Russian drones.

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Helsing, a UK-based defence technology firm, today revealed its new HX-2 drone, an AI-enabled autonomous system.
ukdefencejournal.org.uk/helsing-unve...
Helsing unveils AI-enabled HX-2 drone
Helsing, a UK-based defence technology firm, today revealed its new HX-2 drone, an AI-enabled autonomous system.
ukdefencejournal.org.uk

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A mammoth investigation by Declan Walsh into the gold rush fueling Sudan's civil war. The paramilitary RSF has extracted $860m worth from mines it seized in Darfur this year alone. Who's profiting? The UAE.

Gift link and 🧵 of some visual reporting. www.nytimes.com/2024/12/11/w...
The Gold Rush at the Heart of a Civil War (Gift Article)
Famine and ethnic cleansing stalk Sudan. Yet the gold trade is booming, enriching generals and propelling the fight.
www.nytimes.com

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The trial against moving aerial targets marks a significant milestone in integrating advanced directed energy weapons into the British Army’s arsenal.
ukdefencejournal.org.uk/british-army...
British Army vehicle fires high energy laser weapon
The trial against moving aerial targets marks a significant milestone in integrating advanced directed energy weapons into the British Army’s arsenal.
ukdefencejournal.org.uk

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BREAKING: Heavy fighting has been reported between Somali govt troops and Jubaland security forces in Raskamboni on Wednesday following dispute over Jubaland leadership election last month.

Both sides have now confirmed about the fighting. Each side accused the other of starting the fight.

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Wonder what impact this will have on Russian ops in Africa. Syria is the main stop for all military forces and equipment sent to Africa.