(Ben) 本记明
@ulyssecolonna.bsky.social
Creative speller, fanatical aggadist, I dabble in economics.
Member @tochnyi.bsky.social
Member @tochnyi.bsky.social
Pinned
(Ben) 本记明
@ulyssecolonna.bsky.social
· Jan 19
Hi folks!
And now for @tochnyi.info's (slightly delayed) monthly coverage of the slow-motion crash of Russia's piggy bank, the so-called NWF.
Of course, the decembers numbers were highly expected. Let's see what they reveal.
And now for @tochnyi.info's (slightly delayed) monthly coverage of the slow-motion crash of Russia's piggy bank, the so-called NWF.
Of course, the decembers numbers were highly expected. Let's see what they reveal.
Reposted by (Ben) 本记明
It has begun, UAZ canceled the camping version of the Bukhanka. Supposedly they will return to building it in February 2026 when parts are again available but for a while there's been talk of a possible full cancellation of the Bukhanka as a whole.
www.kommersant.ru/doc/8229413
www.kommersant.ru/doc/8229413
November 24, 2025 at 4:10 PM
It has begun, UAZ canceled the camping version of the Bukhanka. Supposedly they will return to building it in February 2026 when parts are again available but for a while there's been talk of a possible full cancellation of the Bukhanka as a whole.
www.kommersant.ru/doc/8229413
www.kommersant.ru/doc/8229413
Reposted by (Ben) 本记明
A great article from The Bell about OFZs, printing money, defaults, and what options Russia has left for financing the war.
thebell.io/zhizn-vzaymy...
thebell.io/zhizn-vzaymy...
Жизнь взаймы. Как Россия влезает в долги ради продолжения войны и какие у этого будут последствия
Война и связанные с нею высокие бюджетные расходы вынуждают Россию все больше занимать. Почти весь дефицит бюджета на следующ
thebell.io
November 24, 2025 at 5:48 AM
A great article from The Bell about OFZs, printing money, defaults, and what options Russia has left for financing the war.
thebell.io/zhizn-vzaymy...
thebell.io/zhizn-vzaymy...
Reposted by (Ben) 本记明
We wrote a paper on Russia sanctions and Russia's import prices. Because of sanctions Russia must pay MUCH more for the sanctioned goods it buys.
@bofit.suomenpankki.fi
A thread:
@bofit.suomenpankki.fi
A thread:
Heli Simola and I wrote about the effect of sanctions on unit prices of Russia’s imports. I.e., how much does Russia have to pay more for goods EU & co have sanctioned, when it imports them from China, Türkiye and other countries?
@bofit.suomenpankki.fi DP 8/2025
🇷🇺🇨🇳🇹🇷
1/
www.bofit.fi/en/
@bofit.suomenpankki.fi DP 8/2025
🇷🇺🇨🇳🇹🇷
1/
www.bofit.fi/en/
November 24, 2025 at 9:17 AM
We wrote a paper on Russia sanctions and Russia's import prices. Because of sanctions Russia must pay MUCH more for the sanctioned goods it buys.
@bofit.suomenpankki.fi
A thread:
@bofit.suomenpankki.fi
A thread:
Worst crisis in the last 30 years of Russian coal will last until 2027 at least.
The massive polycrisis is becoming part of the mainstream discourse.
podcasts.apple.com/fr/podcast/c...
The massive polycrisis is becoming part of the mainstream discourse.
podcasts.apple.com/fr/podcast/c...
Le charbon russe connaît sa pire crise depuis trente ans
Épisode de l’émission · Chronique des matières premières · 23/11/2025 · 2 min
podcasts.apple.com
November 24, 2025 at 7:22 AM
Worst crisis in the last 30 years of Russian coal will last until 2027 at least.
The massive polycrisis is becoming part of the mainstream discourse.
podcasts.apple.com/fr/podcast/c...
The massive polycrisis is becoming part of the mainstream discourse.
podcasts.apple.com/fr/podcast/c...
Yo @volberg.bsky.social, working on long-term EU strategic integration here at home, so… do you know cool Estonian music for a 6 year-old who needs to dance and have fun?
November 23, 2025 at 5:13 PM
Yo @volberg.bsky.social, working on long-term EU strategic integration here at home, so… do you know cool Estonian music for a 6 year-old who needs to dance and have fun?
Reposted by (Ben) 本记明
Heli Simola and I wrote about the effect of sanctions on unit prices of Russia’s imports. I.e., how much does Russia have to pay more for goods EU & co have sanctioned, when it imports them from China, Türkiye and other countries?
@bofit.suomenpankki.fi DP 8/2025
🇷🇺🇨🇳🇹🇷
1/
www.bofit.fi/en/
@bofit.suomenpankki.fi DP 8/2025
🇷🇺🇨🇳🇹🇷
1/
www.bofit.fi/en/
November 21, 2025 at 7:01 PM
Heli Simola and I wrote about the effect of sanctions on unit prices of Russia’s imports. I.e., how much does Russia have to pay more for goods EU & co have sanctioned, when it imports them from China, Türkiye and other countries?
@bofit.suomenpankki.fi DP 8/2025
🇷🇺🇨🇳🇹🇷
1/
www.bofit.fi/en/
@bofit.suomenpankki.fi DP 8/2025
🇷🇺🇨🇳🇹🇷
1/
www.bofit.fi/en/
Reposted by (Ben) 本记明
The United States sanctioned Keremet bank and the TGR group last year. It’s a significant network. Keremet promised to challenge the sanctions decision, but the involvement of Russia and Ilan Shor pretty much guaranteed the decision would not be reversed.
This UK-Kyrgyzstan-Russia connection links street drugs in Britain to Russian sanctions evasion via Keremet Bank in the Kyrgyz Republic. It's the tip of enormous iceberg of illicit finance connecting organised crime and professional enablers.
www-bbc-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.bbc....
www-bbc-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.bbc....
Friday-night drug deals helping Russian war machine, UK crime agency warns - BBC News
The National Crime Agency says a "vast criminal ecosystem" funds "really bad things" around the world.
www-bbc-com.cdn.ampproject.org
November 21, 2025 at 11:55 AM
The United States sanctioned Keremet bank and the TGR group last year. It’s a significant network. Keremet promised to challenge the sanctions decision, but the involvement of Russia and Ilan Shor pretty much guaranteed the decision would not be reversed.
How can this be the starting position? It’s like Ukraine will have to negotiate with the US, not Russia.
The US peace plan for Ukraine calls for Kyiv to cede swaths of land currently under its control and offers big concessions to Russia, including a ban on any future expansion of the Nato military alliance. on.ft.com/4oaGlf0
November 21, 2025 at 8:31 AM
How can this be the starting position? It’s like Ukraine will have to negotiate with the US, not Russia.
Reposted by (Ben) 本记明
1\ Donation match! Post proof of donation by 30th Nov, I'll match up to $2,500.
Check the quoted thread to see how one excavator saved dozens of lives and $millions of equipment.
Every $1 helps, please share Constantine's thread and tell friends about my match. We can help democracy's defenders.
Check the quoted thread to see how one excavator saved dozens of lives and $millions of equipment.
Every $1 helps, please share Constantine's thread and tell friends about my match. We can help democracy's defenders.
November 21, 2025 at 4:55 AM
1\ Donation match! Post proof of donation by 30th Nov, I'll match up to $2,500.
Check the quoted thread to see how one excavator saved dozens of lives and $millions of equipment.
Every $1 helps, please share Constantine's thread and tell friends about my match. We can help democracy's defenders.
Check the quoted thread to see how one excavator saved dozens of lives and $millions of equipment.
Every $1 helps, please share Constantine's thread and tell friends about my match. We can help democracy's defenders.
Reposted by (Ben) 本记明
1\ Russia's budget plan implies the following for 2025Q4 vs 2024Q4. Inflation adjusted using Rosstat's 7.7%
👉37% cuts in national defence
👉74% cuts in housing and public utilities
👉59% cuts in social security
👉19% cuts in healthcare
👉16% cuts in education
👉22% cuts in law enforcement
👉37% cuts in national defence
👉74% cuts in housing and public utilities
👉59% cuts in social security
👉19% cuts in healthcare
👉16% cuts in education
👉22% cuts in law enforcement
Russian Federal Budget – Treemap
budget.jakluge.de
November 19, 2025 at 4:32 AM
1\ Russia's budget plan implies the following for 2025Q4 vs 2024Q4. Inflation adjusted using Rosstat's 7.7%
👉37% cuts in national defence
👉74% cuts in housing and public utilities
👉59% cuts in social security
👉19% cuts in healthcare
👉16% cuts in education
👉22% cuts in law enforcement
👉37% cuts in national defence
👉74% cuts in housing and public utilities
👉59% cuts in social security
👉19% cuts in healthcare
👉16% cuts in education
👉22% cuts in law enforcement
Reposted by (Ben) 本记明
If you want more info on this and the gasoline shortages tune in tonight to @tochnyi.info 's live stream at 21:00 Kyiv time.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=QNnm...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=QNnm...
Nordic-Baltic 8 / Aid to Ukraine - Tochnyi Weekly November 16th 2025
YouTube video by Tochnyi
www.youtube.com
November 16, 2025 at 5:44 PM
If you want more info on this and the gasoline shortages tune in tonight to @tochnyi.info 's live stream at 21:00 Kyiv time.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=QNnm...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=QNnm...
Back in the 80’s Emmanuel Todd detected a rise in infant mortality in the USSR and postulated it was a sign the state was collapsing.
Now he has turned into a total vatnik who thinks Ukraine has already been defeated.
I wonder what he makes of that.
Now he has turned into a total vatnik who thinks Ukraine has already been defeated.
I wonder what he makes of that.
‼️ Russia: “For the first time in decades, the P.A. Herzen Moscow Cancer Research Institute has stopped publishing data on cancer mortality.”
“The institute's decision coincided with Rosstat ceasing to publish mortality data in the summer of 2025.”
www.moscowtimes.ru/2025/11/14/v...
“The institute's decision coincided with Rosstat ceasing to publish mortality data in the summer of 2025.”
www.moscowtimes.ru/2025/11/14/v...
November 15, 2025 at 1:42 PM
Back in the 80’s Emmanuel Todd detected a rise in infant mortality in the USSR and postulated it was a sign the state was collapsing.
Now he has turned into a total vatnik who thinks Ukraine has already been defeated.
I wonder what he makes of that.
Now he has turned into a total vatnik who thinks Ukraine has already been defeated.
I wonder what he makes of that.
Reposted by (Ben) 本记明
Robin Brooks used Haven Analytics data to show the discounts on Russian Urals vs Brent have increased drastically since the imposition of U.S. sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft.
The discount is over $15 a barrel now.
Russian oil is selling below $50 🔥
The discount is over $15 a barrel now.
Russian oil is selling below $50 🔥
November 15, 2025 at 8:44 AM
Robin Brooks used Haven Analytics data to show the discounts on Russian Urals vs Brent have increased drastically since the imposition of U.S. sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft.
The discount is over $15 a barrel now.
Russian oil is selling below $50 🔥
The discount is over $15 a barrel now.
Russian oil is selling below $50 🔥
Amazing podcast from @alexjubelin.bsky.social about the situation in Mali. @simnasr.bsky.social is cool to read but he's truly fantastic to listen to!
Brilliant take, which makes space for personal issues at the top, gloabal influences and basic facts on the ground lerubicon.org/collimateur-...
Brilliant take, which makes space for personal issues at the top, gloabal influences and basic facts on the ground lerubicon.org/collimateur-...
Mali : l'étau se resserre sur Bamako [Zone d'affrontements #1]
Pour ce premier épisode d'un nouveau format avec Wassim Nasr consacré à l'actualité du jihadisme, notamment au Sahel, le Collimateur fait le point sur la situation du Mali, où l'avance du JNIM et sa c...
lerubicon.org
November 15, 2025 at 11:40 AM
Amazing podcast from @alexjubelin.bsky.social about the situation in Mali. @simnasr.bsky.social is cool to read but he's truly fantastic to listen to!
Brilliant take, which makes space for personal issues at the top, gloabal influences and basic facts on the ground lerubicon.org/collimateur-...
Brilliant take, which makes space for personal issues at the top, gloabal influences and basic facts on the ground lerubicon.org/collimateur-...
Reposted by (Ben) 本记明
Exciting news, finally data hinting that the Rosneft/Lukoil sanctions are directly hurting Russia.
A ~$6.50/bbl extra discount increase is big enough to override market price increases of ~$5/bbl.
I still think it'll take a while to be sure, but this is promising 🤞volume/cost info also needed.
A ~$6.50/bbl extra discount increase is big enough to override market price increases of ~$5/bbl.
I still think it'll take a while to be sure, but this is promising 🤞volume/cost info also needed.
November 13, 2025 at 3:08 AM
Exciting news, finally data hinting that the Rosneft/Lukoil sanctions are directly hurting Russia.
A ~$6.50/bbl extra discount increase is big enough to override market price increases of ~$5/bbl.
I still think it'll take a while to be sure, but this is promising 🤞volume/cost info also needed.
A ~$6.50/bbl extra discount increase is big enough to override market price increases of ~$5/bbl.
I still think it'll take a while to be sure, but this is promising 🤞volume/cost info also needed.
Reposted by (Ben) 本记明
Russian Business news 12/November/2025:
The UK plans on banning the offering of servicing and insurance to ships carrying LNG from Russia. Currently the Yamal LNG project fleet is being insured by the UK based P&I Club and finding a new insurer will be difficult.
www.kommersant.ru/doc/8195413
The UK plans on banning the offering of servicing and insurance to ships carrying LNG from Russia. Currently the Yamal LNG project fleet is being insured by the UK based P&I Club and finding a new insurer will be difficult.
www.kommersant.ru/doc/8195413
Страховка танкеров меняет флаг
Флот «Ямал СПГ» может лишиться страхового покрытия
www.kommersant.ru
November 13, 2025 at 5:36 AM
Russian Business news 12/November/2025:
The UK plans on banning the offering of servicing and insurance to ships carrying LNG from Russia. Currently the Yamal LNG project fleet is being insured by the UK based P&I Club and finding a new insurer will be difficult.
www.kommersant.ru/doc/8195413
The UK plans on banning the offering of servicing and insurance to ships carrying LNG from Russia. Currently the Yamal LNG project fleet is being insured by the UK based P&I Club and finding a new insurer will be difficult.
www.kommersant.ru/doc/8195413
This is hilarious.
There is zero chance for these assets to be floated on the Chinese market and the yuan denomination will only very marginally attract an excess of Chinese investors.
It’s only a way to provide a safety against inflation. Quite telling.
There is zero chance for these assets to be floated on the Chinese market and the yuan denomination will only very marginally attract an excess of Chinese investors.
It’s only a way to provide a safety against inflation. Quite telling.
The Russian Ministry of Finance made an announcement on Chinese Yuan
We just have to wait to see what happens
minfin.gov.ru/ru/press-cen...
We just have to wait to see what happens
minfin.gov.ru/ru/press-cen...
November 12, 2025 at 6:15 PM
This is hilarious.
There is zero chance for these assets to be floated on the Chinese market and the yuan denomination will only very marginally attract an excess of Chinese investors.
It’s only a way to provide a safety against inflation. Quite telling.
There is zero chance for these assets to be floated on the Chinese market and the yuan denomination will only very marginally attract an excess of Chinese investors.
It’s only a way to provide a safety against inflation. Quite telling.
Reposted by (Ben) 本记明
Russia's oil revenues continue to drop amid US sanctions, strong rouble and low global crude prices
• Kremlin's oil revenues stood at US$1.1bn/week in early Nov., down from ~US$1.6bn/week in 2024
• China's Sinopec and PetroChina Co. recently cancelled some Russian cargoes following new US sanctions
• Kremlin's oil revenues stood at US$1.1bn/week in early Nov., down from ~US$1.6bn/week in 2024
• China's Sinopec and PetroChina Co. recently cancelled some Russian cargoes following new US sanctions
November 12, 2025 at 4:05 PM
Russia's oil revenues continue to drop amid US sanctions, strong rouble and low global crude prices
• Kremlin's oil revenues stood at US$1.1bn/week in early Nov., down from ~US$1.6bn/week in 2024
• China's Sinopec and PetroChina Co. recently cancelled some Russian cargoes following new US sanctions
• Kremlin's oil revenues stood at US$1.1bn/week in early Nov., down from ~US$1.6bn/week in 2024
• China's Sinopec and PetroChina Co. recently cancelled some Russian cargoes following new US sanctions
Reposted by (Ben) 本记明
🚨 Foreign currency supply in Russia has fallen to a record low since the start of the full-scale invasion (rolling 6 month average). Foreign currency is in short supply, but demand is increasing.
The ruble should be devaluing, but the Bank of Russia won’t let it.
The ruble should be devaluing, but the Bank of Russia won’t let it.
November 12, 2025 at 1:01 AM
🚨 Foreign currency supply in Russia has fallen to a record low since the start of the full-scale invasion (rolling 6 month average). Foreign currency is in short supply, but demand is increasing.
The ruble should be devaluing, but the Bank of Russia won’t let it.
The ruble should be devaluing, but the Bank of Russia won’t let it.
Reposted by (Ben) 本记明
Despite estimates by analytical companies that Russian gasoline sales have returned to profitability the Fuel Union says they are unprofitable and far from the 7-8 rubles per liter needed to operate a gas station.
www.kommersant.ru/doc/8192616
www.kommersant.ru/doc/8192616
Рентабельность выдавливают по капле
Маржа продаж бензина на АЗС начала восстанавливаться
www.kommersant.ru
November 10, 2025 at 6:13 AM
Despite estimates by analytical companies that Russian gasoline sales have returned to profitability the Fuel Union says they are unprofitable and far from the 7-8 rubles per liter needed to operate a gas station.
www.kommersant.ru/doc/8192616
www.kommersant.ru/doc/8192616
Reposted by (Ben) 本记明
The Russian project to build the domestically designed processor Baikal-M has been stopped due to a shortage of crystals needed for the production. They call the experiment a success but they didn't even reach a production of more than a few dozens.
www.kommersant.ru/doc/8192532
www.kommersant.ru/doc/8192532
Кристально пусто
Эксперимент по корпусированию процессоров Baikal M в РФ прекращен из-за дефицита компонентов
www.kommersant.ru
November 10, 2025 at 7:01 AM
The Russian project to build the domestically designed processor Baikal-M has been stopped due to a shortage of crystals needed for the production. They call the experiment a success but they didn't even reach a production of more than a few dozens.
www.kommersant.ru/doc/8192532
www.kommersant.ru/doc/8192532
To paraphrase @realjakebroe.bsky.social : your propaganda is weak, Russia, it’s weak.
‼️ Russia: “The Russian Counter-Strike game about the "SMO" failed on the largest gaming platform.”
👉 "Squad 22: ZOV" which was developed with support from the Russian Ministry of Defense
🍿You’ve got to see these three brutal sentences…
www.moscowtimes.ru/2025/11/08/r...
👉 "Squad 22: ZOV" which was developed with support from the Russian Ministry of Defense
🍿You’ve got to see these three brutal sentences…
www.moscowtimes.ru/2025/11/08/r...
November 9, 2025 at 10:36 AM
To paraphrase @realjakebroe.bsky.social : your propaganda is weak, Russia, it’s weak.
Thank goodness they’ve prepared the National Wealth Fund just for that occasion and with access to the international debt market they can… oh wait…
Russian oil and gas revenues in October 2025 were 888.6 billion rubles ($10.9 billion), or 27% below October 2024.
November 7, 2025 at 4:57 PM
Thank goodness they’ve prepared the National Wealth Fund just for that occasion and with access to the international debt market they can… oh wait…
Reposted by (Ben) 本记明
I’ve found a better tool to translate this. Look at how high the debt burdens are for Russian companies! According to the Center for Macroeconomic and Short-Term Forecasting, Russian businesses are now using 36% of their profits to service debt alone.
November 7, 2025 at 3:32 PM
I’ve found a better tool to translate this. Look at how high the debt burdens are for Russian companies! According to the Center for Macroeconomic and Short-Term Forecasting, Russian businesses are now using 36% of their profits to service debt alone.
Reposted by (Ben) 本记明
🇷🇺 is facing an oil revenue apocalypse right now:
⬆️
• Discounts
• Ruble
• Insurance/shipping costs
⬇️
• Refining capacity
• Export logistics
• Demand
• Profitability
What does all this lead to?
CLOSED WELLS! Russia will have to cap its wells as this continues.
⬆️
• Discounts
• Ruble
• Insurance/shipping costs
⬇️
• Refining capacity
• Export logistics
• Demand
• Profitability
What does all this lead to?
CLOSED WELLS! Russia will have to cap its wells as this continues.
November 7, 2025 at 4:02 PM
🇷🇺 is facing an oil revenue apocalypse right now:
⬆️
• Discounts
• Ruble
• Insurance/shipping costs
⬇️
• Refining capacity
• Export logistics
• Demand
• Profitability
What does all this lead to?
CLOSED WELLS! Russia will have to cap its wells as this continues.
⬆️
• Discounts
• Ruble
• Insurance/shipping costs
⬇️
• Refining capacity
• Export logistics
• Demand
• Profitability
What does all this lead to?
CLOSED WELLS! Russia will have to cap its wells as this continues.