I may be mistaken but what was asked was a demilitarisation of the area not a transfer of sovereignty.

Besides, while painful, people come before land, that was the Polish motto. Losing valuable land also did not prevent Finland from thriving.

They will be able to do so regardless.

Unless Russia truly collapses or Azov can parade on the Red Square, nothing will prevent Russia from filling its warehouses with missiles. And neither of the above are Ukrainian war goals.

I don’t believe the soldier cap is a big issue. Force limitation is a common occurrence in international treaties. Plus with an army realistically at 450k, Kyiv can still call 150K reservists at anytime and if Russia attacks the agreement is void anyway.

PS: regarding the amnesty, I see it as a positive as it would free the Ukrainian civilians and POWs convicted of phoney crimes. While nothing prevents the ICC from indicting and Ukraine can hunt the worst of the worst extrajudicially.

So here are five reasons I see why the Russian peace plan is at least worth considering for Ukraine. Is it fair? Not at all. Is it a good ideas? Maybe.

5) the Russian economy won’t get better. It’s difficult to see how the Kremlin won’t fumble demobilisation. And if they decide to rebuild the Russian army from scratch, they won’t get much in terms of peace benefits and this may just be the final nail in the coffin of the Russian economy.

4) imagine how the oil market which is already in a glut will react to the reopening of the Russian westward pipelines… We’re looking at a $10 barrel. Bad for Russia while it would put European countries in a position to pay for Ukrainian reconstruction.

3) sanctions will not disappear magically. It famously takes a long time for them to be lifted specially because they are mingled with others that will not be lifted, those on Venezuela and Iran for instance. To say nothing of the Euro ones which may not be lifted at all.

2) the Ukrainian democracy definitely needs a breather. A year or two of peace would probably allow a new president to be elected with a new mandate and a renewed legitimacy.

1) in a recent podcast @markgaleotti.bsky.social pointed out quite correctly that some aspects of it are less harsh than it seems. The 600K troops limits for instance would still make it by far the strongest in Europe.

Thx

I’d say that’s fairly unlikely. VVP is now 73, it would take 5 to 10 years to rebuild the Russian army and economy to the point of being able to fight a war with the West. He’d be somewhere between 78 and 83. That’s way old to take a gamble. And his successor may not be keen on this sort of things.

“Ce qui est ruiné c’est la possibilité que la Chine avait à ce moment là [1860] de devenir maîtresse du monde”

Voilà voilà voilà

Celui sur le sac du palais d’été est encore pire, il explique que sans l’expédition, il n’y aurait pas eu de révolution industrielle en Europe mais en Asie.