Tomas Hirst
@tomashirstecon.bsky.social
Strategy & Asset Allocation. Queasy metropolitan liberal. “Economist” -
@t0nyyates
@t0nyyates
Pinned
Tomas Hirst
@tomashirstecon.bsky.social
· Nov 10
Hello new Bluesky-ers! Guess I should do one of these awkward introductory posts - work in asset allocation but mostly here for finance, economics, social policy and politics (though the last almost exclusively through a policy lens). Frequently snarky, but aspiring to avoid cantankerousness.
Stumbled upon this screenshot I took like 2 years ago. Did anyone ever go to see this? Are there reviews?
November 10, 2025 at 8:29 PM
Stumbled upon this screenshot I took like 2 years ago. Did anyone ever go to see this? Are there reviews?
Can’t remember who was suggesting this earlier but you absolutely can’t do housing stimulus via buyer subsidy while rates are in restrictive territory. It’s the primary transmission mechanism for the policy, so all you end up doing is keeping rates higher for longer. It’s a non-starter.
November 10, 2025 at 8:04 PM
Can’t remember who was suggesting this earlier but you absolutely can’t do housing stimulus via buyer subsidy while rates are in restrictive territory. It’s the primary transmission mechanism for the policy, so all you end up doing is keeping rates higher for longer. It’s a non-starter.
Reposted by Tomas Hirst
I love it when people mash together two completely unrelated phenomena as part of an effort to whip up excitement.
You don't have to invent a Chinese scheme to break the UST market to get mad at the existence of the UST basis, you can just understand that broad vol spikes lead to grossing down.
You don't have to invent a Chinese scheme to break the UST market to get mad at the existence of the UST basis, you can just understand that broad vol spikes lead to grossing down.
China has used the basis trade to unsettle the Treasury market and get Trump to fold on tariffs. We need to shut the basis trade down, not backstop it with a return to Fed balance sheet expansion. A piece inspired by the amazing @vmrconstancio.bsky.social.
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-basis-...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-basis-...
November 10, 2025 at 5:00 PM
I love it when people mash together two completely unrelated phenomena as part of an effort to whip up excitement.
You don't have to invent a Chinese scheme to break the UST market to get mad at the existence of the UST basis, you can just understand that broad vol spikes lead to grossing down.
You don't have to invent a Chinese scheme to break the UST market to get mad at the existence of the UST basis, you can just understand that broad vol spikes lead to grossing down.
Reposted by Tomas Hirst
“We’re gonna take the hit from breaking a manifesto pledge, so what can we actually fix in the public sphere to make it worth it” may be the Starmer government finally finding its political project.
November 10, 2025 at 4:22 PM
“We’re gonna take the hit from breaking a manifesto pledge, so what can we actually fix in the public sphere to make it worth it” may be the Starmer government finally finding its political project.
Good news is good news (even if this good news invites the question “but you thought it was sort of ok before?”)
NEW: Rachel Reeves signals she intends to remove the two-child cap *in full*
"I don't think a child should be penalised because they're in a bigger family through no fault of their own," she tells BBC.
"I don't think a child should be penalised because they're in a bigger family through no fault of their own," she tells BBC.
November 10, 2025 at 4:17 PM
Good news is good news (even if this good news invites the question “but you thought it was sort of ok before?”)
This is another example of “politics is *really* all about my particular bugbears”, which you can tell by the author shoving together two entirely unrelated events linked only by their coincident timing. Falls into the not even wrong category. on.ft.com/4819NPz
November 9, 2025 at 10:04 PM
This is another example of “politics is *really* all about my particular bugbears”, which you can tell by the author shoving together two entirely unrelated events linked only by their coincident timing. Falls into the not even wrong category. on.ft.com/4819NPz
Thing I love - when you use a recipe book enough that it falls open on your favourites
November 9, 2025 at 5:25 PM
Thing I love - when you use a recipe book enough that it falls open on your favourites
Reposted by Tomas Hirst
There are countries where a public distribution system of goods to the citizenry involves a ration card. The American equivalent is a duration card.
The appropriate market-based risk premium on a 50 year mortgage with an embedded option to lock-in the lowest yield of its life would be absurdly high. To make it affordable, the state subsidy would have to be enormous. These things would be near permanent profit drags.
Trump and his cronies are now pushing 50-year mortgages.
Buckle up. This is going to make the 2008 mortgage crisis look like the good old days.
Buckle up. This is going to make the 2008 mortgage crisis look like the good old days.
November 8, 2025 at 10:05 PM
There are countries where a public distribution system of goods to the citizenry involves a ration card. The American equivalent is a duration card.
The appropriate market-based risk premium on a 50 year mortgage with an embedded option to lock-in the lowest yield of its life would be absurdly high. To make it affordable, the state subsidy would have to be enormous. These things would be near permanent profit drags.
Trump and his cronies are now pushing 50-year mortgages.
Buckle up. This is going to make the 2008 mortgage crisis look like the good old days.
Buckle up. This is going to make the 2008 mortgage crisis look like the good old days.
November 8, 2025 at 8:29 PM
The appropriate market-based risk premium on a 50 year mortgage with an embedded option to lock-in the lowest yield of its life would be absurdly high. To make it affordable, the state subsidy would have to be enormous. These things would be near permanent profit drags.
Reposted by Tomas Hirst
“Nobody thought a Labour government would have to raise taxes by more than £70bn,” claims one insider in this excellent piece. Shows the problem of the climate of fear in meetings created by some of Starmer’s aides, in that plenty of Labour insiders, did, in fact, think this!
The politics of breaking manifesto promises
The history of politicians who go back on their words has lessons for Rachel Reeves as she mulls raising taxes
www.ft.com
November 8, 2025 at 10:32 AM
“Nobody thought a Labour government would have to raise taxes by more than £70bn,” claims one insider in this excellent piece. Shows the problem of the climate of fear in meetings created by some of Starmer’s aides, in that plenty of Labour insiders, did, in fact, think this!
That time of year before we cycle back to “Australian points-based system” talking points with similar depth of understanding
It's "Let's copy Denmark" season again. With politicians and journalists making claims about a country they very clearly know absolutely nothing about. Did you know the Danish People's Party isn't the only radical right party in Denmark? No? Maybe you should not use the country as a reference point
UK to announce plans to emulate stringent Danish immigration system
November 8, 2025 at 8:07 PM
That time of year before we cycle back to “Australian points-based system” talking points with similar depth of understanding
I love the aesthetic of open kitchens, but my clothes do not appreciate the aroma ex post
November 7, 2025 at 9:59 PM
I love the aesthetic of open kitchens, but my clothes do not appreciate the aroma ex post
Ok no more Conor Sen in the feed
November 7, 2025 at 1:52 PM
Ok no more Conor Sen in the feed
It’s a funny version of political credibility where you’re asking the public to support you for saying “well, I never said *that* tax on you wouldn’t go up in the manifesto” rather than, you know, being honest about having underestimated the scale of the challenge.
November 6, 2025 at 5:39 PM
It’s a funny version of political credibility where you’re asking the public to support you for saying “well, I never said *that* tax on you wouldn’t go up in the manifesto” rather than, you know, being honest about having underestimated the scale of the challenge.
Reposted by Tomas Hirst
the synthesis here is you want macro bailed-out while micro churns. productivity gains mostly happen via new entrants or at least new plant. a downturn should be an incredible opportunity for new entrants, as the worst of the old crash and burn! 1/
I kinda think the Austrians have a point that some bankruptcies can have a salutary cleansing effect. like you don't let it spiral out of control and you stimulate back to full employment as needed but sometimes companies deserve to go under
November 6, 2025 at 3:48 PM
the synthesis here is you want macro bailed-out while micro churns. productivity gains mostly happen via new entrants or at least new plant. a downturn should be an incredible opportunity for new entrants, as the worst of the old crash and burn! 1/
Coupla thoughts on this one - those two lines do not look like they interact in any meaningful way (flight data need some serious seasonal adjustment) and, secondly, isn't there a government shutdown on that's particularly impacting air traffic control?
FEDWATCH: “.. Domestic flights serve as a real-time economic momentum indicator ..
“.. When the number of domestic flights declines, GDPNOW is expected to lose between 0.1% and 0.5% in the next 1-2 weeks and may slow even further, as observed in the past ..”
“.. When the number of domestic flights declines, GDPNOW is expected to lose between 0.1% and 0.5% in the next 1-2 weeks and may slow even further, as observed in the past ..”
November 6, 2025 at 3:28 PM
Coupla thoughts on this one - those two lines do not look like they interact in any meaningful way (flight data need some serious seasonal adjustment) and, secondly, isn't there a government shutdown on that's particularly impacting air traffic control?
Reposted by Tomas Hirst
Hubristic Argentine president with uncertain US and IMF backing decides to maintain half-arsed crawling band exchange rate regime to hold up peso rather than letting it float despite market pressure.
WHAT COULD GO WRONG?
www.ft.com/content/b22f...
WHAT COULD GO WRONG?
www.ft.com/content/b22f...
Milei defies calls to float Argentine peso freely
Libertarian president vows to double down on transformation of country’s economy
www.ft.com
November 6, 2025 at 2:42 PM
Hubristic Argentine president with uncertain US and IMF backing decides to maintain half-arsed crawling band exchange rate regime to hold up peso rather than letting it float despite market pressure.
WHAT COULD GO WRONG?
www.ft.com/content/b22f...
WHAT COULD GO WRONG?
www.ft.com/content/b22f...
This is excellent from @robertshrimsley.bsky.social on.ft.com/3LqcP7h
The inescapable logic of Labour’s choices
Starmer and Reeves should lean in to what the Budget reveals about this tax-and-spend government
on.ft.com
November 6, 2025 at 12:52 PM
This is excellent from @robertshrimsley.bsky.social on.ft.com/3LqcP7h
Seems like a thing the government *should* maybe consider stepping in to address - not to bail out the company but to support the pipeline by protecting frontline workers - given how close this is to a key priority
November 6, 2025 at 12:37 PM
Seems like a thing the government *should* maybe consider stepping in to address - not to bail out the company but to support the pipeline by protecting frontline workers - given how close this is to a key priority
It’s always so touching when a former colleague gets in touch on LinkedIn with a boilerplate marketing message that may as well start “Dear [first name]”
November 6, 2025 at 12:03 PM
It’s always so touching when a former colleague gets in touch on LinkedIn with a boilerplate marketing message that may as well start “Dear [first name]”
Reposted by Tomas Hirst
Tax policy on the British left is pure "anti-bedtime left". Bizarre idea that you can have a big social democratic welfare state without everyone contributing properly www.economist.com/britain/2025...
November 6, 2025 at 11:06 AM
Tax policy on the British left is pure "anti-bedtime left". Bizarre idea that you can have a big social democratic welfare state without everyone contributing properly www.economist.com/britain/2025...
Reposted by Tomas Hirst
This is true now, was true at the GE, but was true when Hunt announced his desperate NI cuts at his last two budgets - both times which Labour rightly criticised but refused to row back on when in govt.
An idiotic self-imposed bind which has severely hampered their first 18 months in govt.
An idiotic self-imposed bind which has severely hampered their first 18 months in govt.
“We will never use the main tax levers at our disposal no matter how bad the fiscal picture gets” is a terrible message to give when you’re reliant on the confidence of bond markets. The political cost of not doing dumb things is surely a cost worth paying especially since they’re already unpopular.
November 6, 2025 at 11:00 AM
This is true now, was true at the GE, but was true when Hunt announced his desperate NI cuts at his last two budgets - both times which Labour rightly criticised but refused to row back on when in govt.
An idiotic self-imposed bind which has severely hampered their first 18 months in govt.
An idiotic self-imposed bind which has severely hampered their first 18 months in govt.
Reposted by Tomas Hirst
Salami splicing: jamming it all together to make a tax sausage
Salami slicing your way to fiscal headroom introduces more tax complexity, likely means poorly targeted measures increasing deadweight costs, raises uncertainty (where might they look to tax next?), and reduces flexibility going forward (pulling all but the obvious levers sends a signal in itself).
November 6, 2025 at 10:49 AM
Salami splicing: jamming it all together to make a tax sausage