Tomas Hirst
@tomashirstecon.bsky.social
Strategy & Asset Allocation. Queasy metropolitan liberal. “Economist” -
@t0nyyates
@t0nyyates
Stumbled upon this screenshot I took like 2 years ago. Did anyone ever go to see this? Are there reviews?
November 10, 2025 at 8:29 PM
Stumbled upon this screenshot I took like 2 years ago. Did anyone ever go to see this? Are there reviews?
This is another example of “politics is *really* all about my particular bugbears”, which you can tell by the author shoving together two entirely unrelated events linked only by their coincident timing. Falls into the not even wrong category. on.ft.com/4819NPz
November 9, 2025 at 10:04 PM
This is another example of “politics is *really* all about my particular bugbears”, which you can tell by the author shoving together two entirely unrelated events linked only by their coincident timing. Falls into the not even wrong category. on.ft.com/4819NPz
Hadn't really checked in on the CPI Property Group hybrids in a couple of years and...boy, that must have been a hell of a ride
November 4, 2025 at 5:38 PM
Hadn't really checked in on the CPI Property Group hybrids in a couple of years and...boy, that must have been a hell of a ride
US IG has been better behaved than I expected given the huge amount of supply hitting the long end of the curve. Still, excess returns there are likely to be pressured given ~10 bps breakevens.
November 4, 2025 at 12:24 PM
US IG has been better behaved than I expected given the huge amount of supply hitting the long end of the curve. Still, excess returns there are likely to be pressured given ~10 bps breakevens.
35bps on the 10-year in a month is not trivial - and notable that the fiscal crisis talk has been meaningfully quietened
November 4, 2025 at 10:15 AM
35bps on the 10-year in a month is not trivial - and notable that the fiscal crisis talk has been meaningfully quietened
And that premium could well disappear as rates return to something ~neutral allowing OAS to decompress back into swaps. Indeed, rate vol is already falling pretty rapidly. So maybe the problem just goes away on its own. Not really happening just yet though.
October 30, 2025 at 7:42 PM
And that premium could well disappear as rates return to something ~neutral allowing OAS to decompress back into swaps. Indeed, rate vol is already falling pretty rapidly. So maybe the problem just goes away on its own. Not really happening just yet though.
So, if it's not big bad sov default story what *is* the story. Well, the thing that very much did happen in the period in question is that US interest rate volatility suddenly ripped as the Fed moved to dampen post-pandemic inflation after almost a decade of extremely low volatility.
October 30, 2025 at 7:12 PM
So, if it's not big bad sov default story what *is* the story. Well, the thing that very much did happen in the period in question is that US interest rate volatility suddenly ripped as the Fed moved to dampen post-pandemic inflation after almost a decade of extremely low volatility.
Moreover, *if* there was a material risk of a US government default then US corporates would be far from immune. It would almost certainly capitalise into increased risk premia - and therefore higher spreads. Which is the very thing that is *not* happening here. Below is the 5Y UST CDS spread.
October 30, 2025 at 7:08 PM
Moreover, *if* there was a material risk of a US government default then US corporates would be far from immune. It would almost certainly capitalise into increased risk premia - and therefore higher spreads. Which is the very thing that is *not* happening here. Below is the 5Y UST CDS spread.
Today in credit debates - WTF is happening with the OAS and Swap spread wedge in US IG corporates. The Tl;dr is that OAS, which measures the additional yield you get on corporate debt over a similar duration government bond, is much lower than the yield pick-up over a floating-rate curve (swaps).
October 30, 2025 at 6:57 PM
Today in credit debates - WTF is happening with the OAS and Swap spread wedge in US IG corporates. The Tl;dr is that OAS, which measures the additional yield you get on corporate debt over a similar duration government bond, is much lower than the yield pick-up over a floating-rate curve (swaps).
Wait @rajakorman.bsky.social, this isn’t true no?
October 29, 2025 at 5:18 PM
Wait @rajakorman.bsky.social, this isn’t true no?
I mean, perfect. No notes.
October 28, 2025 at 5:22 PM
I mean, perfect. No notes.
Aaaaaaaaaaaaand scenes! Colleague suggested that GPT had resolved a tricky estimation model we were trying to build and, well...
October 27, 2025 at 1:54 PM
Aaaaaaaaaaaaand scenes! Colleague suggested that GPT had resolved a tricky estimation model we were trying to build and, well...
Ultimately, there is a funding question (which the government does seem to be getting somewhat to grips with - see below) and a timing question (it’s going to take a lot of time to hire, train, season new workers and build better coordination between police, courts & probation systems).
October 27, 2025 at 10:14 AM
Ultimately, there is a funding question (which the government does seem to be getting somewhat to grips with - see below) and a timing question (it’s going to take a lot of time to hire, train, season new workers and build better coordination between police, courts & probation systems).
We only really see the stress in the system when there is a high profile failure point but a well-designed justice system is as much (if not more) about rehabilitation as incarceration - and the process failures here are mostly invisible
October 27, 2025 at 10:03 AM
We only really see the stress in the system when there is a high profile failure point but a well-designed justice system is as much (if not more) about rehabilitation as incarceration - and the process failures here are mostly invisible
Whenever there's a story of a wrong-un these days, you can be confident there will be a para somewhere that sounds very much like this one
October 24, 2025 at 2:34 PM
Whenever there's a story of a wrong-un these days, you can be confident there will be a para somewhere that sounds very much like this one
It's true to say that credit card delinquency rates are high versus recent history, but also true to say that the rate of deterioration is slowing. And higher twitch card issuer data suggests things are meaningfully improving in terms of charge-offs and delinquencies.
October 22, 2025 at 11:59 AM
It's true to say that credit card delinquency rates are high versus recent history, but also true to say that the rate of deterioration is slowing. And higher twitch card issuer data suggests things are meaningfully improving in terms of charge-offs and delinquencies.
Also, and not to belabour the point, but for a guy who keeps telling everyone else to do their homework how about you start by reading your own links - because I was literally referring to this
October 21, 2025 at 5:07 PM
Also, and not to belabour the point, but for a guy who keeps telling everyone else to do their homework how about you start by reading your own links - because I was literally referring to this
But BBG say it’s so
October 21, 2025 at 3:05 PM
But BBG say it’s so
I’m sure Sean is a lovely chap but I cannot imagine typing the word decisive here and not howling with laughter myself
October 17, 2025 at 6:22 PM
I’m sure Sean is a lovely chap but I cannot imagine typing the word decisive here and not howling with laughter myself
Feels like she failed to make it to the second paragraph
October 17, 2025 at 10:04 AM
Feels like she failed to make it to the second paragraph
