Tomas Hirst
@tomashirstecon.bsky.social
Strategy & Asset Allocation. Queasy metropolitan liberal. “Economist” -
@t0nyyates
@t0nyyates
The UK household sector’s overexposure to property is a policy problem, not an outlet. It’s wildly unproductive, means no portfolio diversification, and traps wealth via illiquidity and mixed use as shelter + investment. Let’s not repeat the mistakes of the recent past.
November 10, 2025 at 8:12 PM
The UK household sector’s overexposure to property is a policy problem, not an outlet. It’s wildly unproductive, means no portfolio diversification, and traps wealth via illiquidity and mixed use as shelter + investment. Let’s not repeat the mistakes of the recent past.
They did the right thing by getting the renters’ bill through. Because that, at least, helps people who can’t afford to buy so are being kept in the private rental sector. Rest is an exercise in expectation management. Either you gotta lower your price expectations to sell or see real term attrition
November 10, 2025 at 8:09 PM
They did the right thing by getting the renters’ bill through. Because that, at least, helps people who can’t afford to buy so are being kept in the private rental sector. Rest is an exercise in expectation management. Either you gotta lower your price expectations to sell or see real term attrition
Also, think about incidence here. It’s a *seller* subsidy. The UK has fiscal capacity constraints and you want to subsidise…existing homeowners? If you wants to subsidise home builders just, you know, subsidise homebuilding! Reason demand doesn’t exist @ prevailing house prices is b/c price is wrong
November 10, 2025 at 8:06 PM
Also, think about incidence here. It’s a *seller* subsidy. The UK has fiscal capacity constraints and you want to subsidise…existing homeowners? If you wants to subsidise home builders just, you know, subsidise homebuilding! Reason demand doesn’t exist @ prevailing house prices is b/c price is wrong
Yep. Flight number 105 there I believe
November 10, 2025 at 8:03 PM
Yep. Flight number 105 there I believe
It aligns polling brain with deliverism. It’s the centre of the Venn people. More of this please.
November 10, 2025 at 4:54 PM
It aligns polling brain with deliverism. It’s the centre of the Venn people. More of this please.
Reposted by Tomas Hirst
“We’re gonna take the hit from breaking a manifesto pledge, so what can we actually fix in the public sphere to make it worth it” may be the Starmer government finally finding its political project.
November 10, 2025 at 4:22 PM
“We’re gonna take the hit from breaking a manifesto pledge, so what can we actually fix in the public sphere to make it worth it” may be the Starmer government finally finding its political project.
“We’re gonna take the hit from breaking a manifesto pledge, so what can we actually fix in the public sphere to make it worth it” may be the Starmer government finally finding its political project.
November 10, 2025 at 4:22 PM
“We’re gonna take the hit from breaking a manifesto pledge, so what can we actually fix in the public sphere to make it worth it” may be the Starmer government finally finding its political project.
It’s what I was going on about here: bsky.app/profile/toma...
If it’s right (and I don’t know anymore than anyone else here), it’s an obituary for the political project anyway so I guess…sure? It’s not really about the fiscal headroom. It’s that the manifesto red lines are themselves causing the market to doubt the capacity of the government to tax if required
Terrific (and gutsy) Inside Politics by David today:
November 10, 2025 at 4:21 PM
It’s what I was going on about here: bsky.app/profile/toma...
Happy to do so.
November 10, 2025 at 4:20 PM
Happy to do so.
But, more importantly, this is what I mean by moving the red lines makes *everything* easier. Once you give yourself the flex to do things on the tax side, it’s amazing how many more of your policy promises on the spending side become achievable!
November 10, 2025 at 4:19 PM
But, more importantly, this is what I mean by moving the red lines makes *everything* easier. Once you give yourself the flex to do things on the tax side, it’s amazing how many more of your policy promises on the spending side become achievable!
You can imagine my shock
November 9, 2025 at 10:18 PM
You can imagine my shock
It’s the laziness that’s so galling. You have one of the easiest jobs in media. Do a little bit of work.
November 9, 2025 at 10:13 PM
It’s the laziness that’s so galling. You have one of the easiest jobs in media. Do a little bit of work.
Where on earth was this person during the Biden administration? Because…this isn’t even a half-hearted description of *huge* fiscal transfers, biggest industrial policy agenda in more than a generation etc etc.
November 9, 2025 at 10:10 PM
Where on earth was this person during the Biden administration? Because…this isn’t even a half-hearted description of *huge* fiscal transfers, biggest industrial policy agenda in more than a generation etc etc.
“Eh, we’ve lost the map” - not what you wanna hear mid-flight 😂
November 9, 2025 at 9:32 PM
“Eh, we’ve lost the map” - not what you wanna hear mid-flight 😂
160 bps is not the clearing rate for swapping out 30Y of interest rate risk for a loan with one-way borrower-friendly option structure. Without the agencies, US would not offer it as standard.
November 9, 2025 at 9:11 AM
160 bps is not the clearing rate for swapping out 30Y of interest rate risk for a loan with one-way borrower-friendly option structure. Without the agencies, US would not offer it as standard.