Tony Yates
@t0nyyates.bsky.social
Economist. Ex Prof / central banker. Macro, politics, money, central banks, finance, Brexit, covid, AI, climbing, MUFC, Blueskyism.
Can someone ask Belgium if they were fucking born yesterday?
BELGIUM WARNS THAT USING FROZEN RUSSIAN ASSETS TO FUND UKRAINE WOULD ENDANGER A PEACE DEAL — FT
November 27, 2025 at 11:44 PM
Can someone ask Belgium if they were fucking born yesterday?
Disposable Heroes of Hip-Hoprisy
Asian Dub Foundation
Israel Nash
Iron and Wine
The Pogues
Asian Dub Foundation
Israel Nash
Iron and Wine
The Pogues
Prince
The Pixies
Unloved / David Holmes
Ronnie Spector
The Orb
The Pixies
Unloved / David Holmes
Ronnie Spector
The Orb
Introduce yourself with five concerts you've seen —
NIN
Yeah Yeah Yeahs
Soul Coughing
Poe
Tom Morello
NIN
Yeah Yeah Yeahs
Soul Coughing
Poe
Tom Morello
November 27, 2025 at 11:27 PM
Disposable Heroes of Hip-Hoprisy
Asian Dub Foundation
Israel Nash
Iron and Wine
The Pogues
Asian Dub Foundation
Israel Nash
Iron and Wine
The Pogues
Reposted by Tony Yates
The take-home message when I give talks about race science: “for bad science to persist, you need (1) a core of ethically or methodologically compromised people who are willing to fabricate data or create misleading evidence & (2) a larger group of people who are willing to promote these ideas”
Sociology of science: What does it take for erroneous or fraudulent claims to take hold? | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
November 27, 2025 at 7:55 PM
The take-home message when I give talks about race science: “for bad science to persist, you need (1) a core of ethically or methodologically compromised people who are willing to fabricate data or create misleading evidence & (2) a larger group of people who are willing to promote these ideas”
Reposted by Tony Yates
Today's 70% fall in net migration to 205,000 was not one of the six stories in BBC ten o'clock news.
Ta massive assymetry in whether rises in immigration and falls in immigration are considered newsworthy by broadcasters
Down by 140k isn't thought to be.
Up by 140k undoubtedly would be.
Ta massive assymetry in whether rises in immigration and falls in immigration are considered newsworthy by broadcasters
Down by 140k isn't thought to be.
Up by 140k undoubtedly would be.
November 27, 2025 at 10:05 PM
Today's 70% fall in net migration to 205,000 was not one of the six stories in BBC ten o'clock news.
Ta massive assymetry in whether rises in immigration and falls in immigration are considered newsworthy by broadcasters
Down by 140k isn't thought to be.
Up by 140k undoubtedly would be.
Ta massive assymetry in whether rises in immigration and falls in immigration are considered newsworthy by broadcasters
Down by 140k isn't thought to be.
Up by 140k undoubtedly would be.
Reposted by Tony Yates
AI datacenters are like cryptominers in that, no matter what you think of the merits of AI or crypto itself, there's no econ-related reason to want these datacenters in your state. They drive up electric costs for everyone in the state while delivering essentially no benefit to your state
November 27, 2025 at 9:15 PM
AI datacenters are like cryptominers in that, no matter what you think of the merits of AI or crypto itself, there's no econ-related reason to want these datacenters in your state. They drive up electric costs for everyone in the state while delivering essentially no benefit to your state
Reposted by Tony Yates
The flood of AI slop is upon us
In light of record submission rates and a large volume of AI-generated slop, SocArXiv recently implemented a policy requiring ORCIDs linked in the OSF profile of submitting authors, and narrowing our focus to social science subjects. Today we are taking two more steps:
/1
/1
November 27, 2025 at 8:16 PM
The flood of AI slop is upon us
Reposted by Tony Yates
Fewer workers. Fewer international students. More people leaving.
A "step in the right direction" according to the PM.
Impossible to take PM/govt seriously on growth if they are deliberately reducing it (and making the fiscal position worse) *as a matter of policy*.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
A "step in the right direction" according to the PM.
Impossible to take PM/govt seriously on growth if they are deliberately reducing it (and making the fiscal position worse) *as a matter of policy*.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
UK net migration falls sharply with drop in arrivals for work and study
Provisional figures for net migration to the UK show levels dropped to 204,000 in the year to June 2025.
www.bbc.co.uk
November 27, 2025 at 8:17 PM
Fewer workers. Fewer international students. More people leaving.
A "step in the right direction" according to the PM.
Impossible to take PM/govt seriously on growth if they are deliberately reducing it (and making the fiscal position worse) *as a matter of policy*.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
A "step in the right direction" according to the PM.
Impossible to take PM/govt seriously on growth if they are deliberately reducing it (and making the fiscal position worse) *as a matter of policy*.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Reposted by Tony Yates
A reminder: Trump 1.0 ordered the Afghanistan withdrawal, and Trump 2.0 granted the shooter asylum this past April. Trump 2.0 also dismantled the joint terrorism task force, and gutted our national security apparatus.
CIA statement about the Afghan man identified as the gunman who shot two National Guardsmen in Washington
November 27, 2025 at 6:59 PM
A reminder: Trump 1.0 ordered the Afghanistan withdrawal, and Trump 2.0 granted the shooter asylum this past April. Trump 2.0 also dismantled the joint terrorism task force, and gutted our national security apparatus.
Another opportunity missed to stress the positive contribution migrants make. Instead Mahmood goes again for the mythical returning Reform voter convinced the net effect is a burden on communities. Barely is the ink dry on the Budget supposed to appeal to the left.
Labour immigration policy explained:
✅ Net immigration rising: CRACKDOWN REQUIRED
✅ Net immigration plummeting: CRACKDOWN REQUIRED
✅ Net immigration rising: CRACKDOWN REQUIRED
✅ Net immigration plummeting: CRACKDOWN REQUIRED
November 27, 2025 at 8:15 PM
Another opportunity missed to stress the positive contribution migrants make. Instead Mahmood goes again for the mythical returning Reform voter convinced the net effect is a burden on communities. Barely is the ink dry on the Budget supposed to appeal to the left.
Reposted by Tony Yates
The threat to UK growth from falling net migration. How could the government have missed this?
One big risk to the OBR forecasts has already materialised -migration is falling more quickly than their projections and that will hit growth and tax revenue.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn...
UK net migration drops sharply to 204,000 in year to June - live updates
Net migration fell by around two-thirds - from 649,000 in the year to June 2024 to 204,000 in the year to June 2025.
www.bbc.co.uk
November 27, 2025 at 1:17 PM
The threat to UK growth from falling net migration. How could the government have missed this?
Every time I look up a new young person's term the explanations are always the same, that it either has no meaning, or the point of it is to comment on meaninglessness, by confusing everyone.
November 27, 2025 at 6:48 PM
Every time I look up a new young person's term the explanations are always the same, that it either has no meaning, or the point of it is to comment on meaninglessness, by confusing everyone.
Really good edition of The Briefing Room on Ukraine and the peace deal chaos... www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...
The Briefing Room - What's happening with the Ukraine peace plan? - BBC Sounds
Is there a viable peace plan for Ukraine on the table?
www.bbc.co.uk
November 27, 2025 at 6:40 PM
Really good edition of The Briefing Room on Ukraine and the peace deal chaos... www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...
Reposted by Tony Yates
A Ukrainian woman is saying goodbye to her home as the front line approaches.
"The front is getting closer, and today my Mom said goodbye to our home and asked for forgiveness that she won’t be able to go there again until victory," Viktoriia wrote.
📷: asiya666
"The front is getting closer, and today my Mom said goodbye to our home and asked for forgiveness that she won’t be able to go there again until victory," Viktoriia wrote.
📷: asiya666
November 27, 2025 at 5:35 PM
A Ukrainian woman is saying goodbye to her home as the front line approaches.
"The front is getting closer, and today my Mom said goodbye to our home and asked for forgiveness that she won’t be able to go there again until victory," Viktoriia wrote.
📷: asiya666
"The front is getting closer, and today my Mom said goodbye to our home and asked for forgiveness that she won’t be able to go there again until victory," Viktoriia wrote.
📷: asiya666
Reposted by Tony Yates
Looking forward to the 2029 general election campaign, when the incumbent government will run on "Public services haven't improved, those tax rises we announced years ago just kicked in, and now we have to increase immigration because it went too low and we are skint again."
The government figuring this out slowly over the coming two years is going to be quite something to behold.
I think the government meant to cut net migration but have accidentally overshot the target by a lot. They haven’t realised this yet.
November 27, 2025 at 4:57 PM
Looking forward to the 2029 general election campaign, when the incumbent government will run on "Public services haven't improved, those tax rises we announced years ago just kicked in, and now we have to increase immigration because it went too low and we are skint again."
Reposted by Tony Yates
Investors expect AI use to soar. That's not happening. www.economist.com/finance-and-...
November 27, 2025 at 8:57 AM
Investors expect AI use to soar. That's not happening. www.economist.com/finance-and-...
We can all think of something else that is happening in Ukraine that is 'theft'. Regarding Putin's comments about confidence in the euro and Eurozone, it will go much worse for the European economy if the front line is moved to the western Ukranian border.
Vladimir Putin said that his government is drafting reciprocal measures in case the EU decides to use the cash value of frozen Russian assets to finance a €140 billion reparations loan to Ukraine.
Putin warns EU ‘theft’ of frozen assets will trigger retaliatory measures
Russian leader says the use of the assets will be a “theft” and a stress test for Europe’s economy.
www.politico.eu
November 27, 2025 at 3:52 PM
We can all think of something else that is happening in Ukraine that is 'theft'. Regarding Putin's comments about confidence in the euro and Eurozone, it will go much worse for the European economy if the front line is moved to the western Ukranian border.
Oh look we missed the 'half way to the next m users' celebration
November 27, 2025 at 2:40 PM
Oh look we missed the 'half way to the next m users' celebration
Reposted by Tony Yates
It's such a bizarre framing. Labour MPs think taking 450k kids out of poverty is putting the country first! That's why they wanted it to happen! It's not because they personally benefit.
Headline on The World at One just now:
"Sir Keir Starmer has denied putting the Labour Party before the country by ending the two-child benefit cap".
Can we please go back to reporting the actual news, not someone's partisan take on it?
"Sir Keir Starmer has denied putting the Labour Party before the country by ending the two-child benefit cap".
Can we please go back to reporting the actual news, not someone's partisan take on it?
November 27, 2025 at 1:16 PM
It's such a bizarre framing. Labour MPs think taking 450k kids out of poverty is putting the country first! That's why they wanted it to happen! It's not because they personally benefit.
Reposted by Tony Yates
1/5 It was entirely predictable that The Telegraph would jump on @DavidOlusoga’s Empire series to fight its right wing culture war for control of our public history. Let’s see what they’ve done:
November 27, 2025 at 8:28 AM
1/5 It was entirely predictable that The Telegraph would jump on @DavidOlusoga’s Empire series to fight its right wing culture war for control of our public history. Let’s see what they’ve done:
OK I forecast that Farage will simply switch to 'that's still a Luton arriving every year'. No fall in migration is big enough for them.
November 27, 2025 at 11:49 AM
OK I forecast that Farage will simply switch to 'that's still a Luton arriving every year'. No fall in migration is big enough for them.
Reposted by Tony Yates
Today's migration stats illustrate the migration doom loop in action...
(from my presentation at the IMF last week)
(from my presentation at the IMF last week)
November 27, 2025 at 11:02 AM
Today's migration stats illustrate the migration doom loop in action...
(from my presentation at the IMF last week)
(from my presentation at the IMF last week)
Reposted by Tony Yates
So we are already back to the levels of migration of the early 2010s and declining faster... let's hope all those new restrictions, based on previous higher numbers, don't make Britain massively unattractive to those migrants the government DOES wish to attract.
Net migration fell sharply agaim to 204,000 in the year to June 2025, having been 344k in 2024 and 848k in 2023. But falling immigration has been the biggest secret - and it is time for the media and political debate to catch up with this change
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn...
UK net migration fell to 204,000 in year to June - live updates
Net migration, the difference between those entering and leaving the country, was 345,000 in 2024 according to revised figures.
www.bbc.co.uk
November 27, 2025 at 9:56 AM
So we are already back to the levels of migration of the early 2010s and declining faster... let's hope all those new restrictions, based on previous higher numbers, don't make Britain massively unattractive to those migrants the government DOES wish to attract.
Reposted by Tony Yates
Reposted by Tony Yates
I can’t we’re in like day four of the “was a openly racist sixty year old also a racist when he was younger?” discourse
November 27, 2025 at 9:41 AM
I can’t we’re in like day four of the “was a openly racist sixty year old also a racist when he was younger?” discourse