James Bowes
@jamesbowes01.bsky.social
Reposted by James Bowes
Britain’s population could start shrinking sooner than we think
Successive changes to immigration rules are seeing visa applications plummet. Meanwhile, revisions to data - plus an expected student exodus next year - should send the official emigration figures higher
1/4
Successive changes to immigration rules are seeing visa applications plummet. Meanwhile, revisions to data - plus an expected student exodus next year - should send the official emigration figures higher
1/4
December 21, 2025 at 11:37 AM
Britain’s population could start shrinking sooner than we think
Successive changes to immigration rules are seeing visa applications plummet. Meanwhile, revisions to data - plus an expected student exodus next year - should send the official emigration figures higher
1/4
Successive changes to immigration rules are seeing visa applications plummet. Meanwhile, revisions to data - plus an expected student exodus next year - should send the official emigration figures higher
1/4
Far more people in medium-skilled jobs who came in 2023 were sponsored by employers whose license has been revoked than in 2022. This is particularly bad for temporary shortage list jobs.
Excludes health and care, only includes jobs with 100+ visas for entry and employers sponsoring 6+ visas. (1/2)
Excludes health and care, only includes jobs with 100+ visas for entry and employers sponsoring 6+ visas. (1/2)
December 18, 2025 at 4:35 PM
Far more people in medium-skilled jobs who came in 2023 were sponsored by employers whose license has been revoked than in 2022. This is particularly bad for temporary shortage list jobs.
Excludes health and care, only includes jobs with 100+ visas for entry and employers sponsoring 6+ visas. (1/2)
Excludes health and care, only includes jobs with 100+ visas for entry and employers sponsoring 6+ visas. (1/2)
A good summary of the salary thresholds review yesterday: www.msn.com/en-gb/news/u...
MSN
www.msn.com
December 18, 2025 at 9:41 AM
A good summary of the salary thresholds review yesterday: www.msn.com/en-gb/news/u...
Recommendations (which the government may or may not accept):
1. Keep headline salary threshold of £41,700.
2. Lower occupational going rates back to 25th percentile.
3. Lower threshold for TSL list jobs (like the ISL).
4. Scrap discounts for people with PhDs.
www.gov.uk/government/p...
1. Keep headline salary threshold of £41,700.
2. Lower occupational going rates back to 25th percentile.
3. Lower threshold for TSL list jobs (like the ISL).
4. Scrap discounts for people with PhDs.
www.gov.uk/government/p...
Review of salary requirements
Report on the salary requirements and discounts for the Skilled Worker, Health and Care Worker, Global Business Mobility and Scale-up routes.
www.gov.uk
December 17, 2025 at 4:15 PM
Recommendations (which the government may or may not accept):
1. Keep headline salary threshold of £41,700.
2. Lower occupational going rates back to 25th percentile.
3. Lower threshold for TSL list jobs (like the ISL).
4. Scrap discounts for people with PhDs.
www.gov.uk/government/p...
1. Keep headline salary threshold of £41,700.
2. Lower occupational going rates back to 25th percentile.
3. Lower threshold for TSL list jobs (like the ISL).
4. Scrap discounts for people with PhDs.
www.gov.uk/government/p...
Reposted by James Bowes
I wrote this 18 months ago
"Net migration is falling sharply...since just before the pandemic, all job growth has been driven by immigration...it’s far from clear where any future labour force growth will come from."
ukandeu.ac.uk/immigration-...
"Net migration is falling sharply...since just before the pandemic, all job growth has been driven by immigration...it’s far from clear where any future labour force growth will come from."
ukandeu.ac.uk/immigration-...
December 16, 2025 at 9:17 AM
I wrote this 18 months ago
"Net migration is falling sharply...since just before the pandemic, all job growth has been driven by immigration...it’s far from clear where any future labour force growth will come from."
ukandeu.ac.uk/immigration-...
"Net migration is falling sharply...since just before the pandemic, all job growth has been driven by immigration...it’s far from clear where any future labour force growth will come from."
ukandeu.ac.uk/immigration-...
Reposted by James Bowes
Labour needs growth. But if it insists on preventing growth that might come from migration or Europe, something will have to give—perhaps their time in government, writes @benansell.bsky.social.
Labour’s Mr Micawber politics
The government hopes that ‘something will turn up’ to produce growth, but curbing immigration will only harm the economy
www.prospectmagazine.co.uk
December 15, 2025 at 4:52 PM
Labour needs growth. But if it insists on preventing growth that might come from migration or Europe, something will have to give—perhaps their time in government, writes @benansell.bsky.social.
Reposted by James Bowes
Few thoughts on the "Polish exodus" from the UK.
1. It's not an 'exodus', it's a slow drip. We're fine, thanks.
2. Migration is really complicated.
3. The absolute cheek of the very same media attacking Poles for years lamenting their departure.
4. What you can do?
THREAD 🧵
1. It's not an 'exodus', it's a slow drip. We're fine, thanks.
2. Migration is really complicated.
3. The absolute cheek of the very same media attacking Poles for years lamenting their departure.
4. What you can do?
THREAD 🧵
December 14, 2025 at 7:13 PM
Few thoughts on the "Polish exodus" from the UK.
1. It's not an 'exodus', it's a slow drip. We're fine, thanks.
2. Migration is really complicated.
3. The absolute cheek of the very same media attacking Poles for years lamenting their departure.
4. What you can do?
THREAD 🧵
1. It's not an 'exodus', it's a slow drip. We're fine, thanks.
2. Migration is really complicated.
3. The absolute cheek of the very same media attacking Poles for years lamenting their departure.
4. What you can do?
THREAD 🧵
MSN
www.msn.com
December 12, 2025 at 5:16 PM
The new basic compliance assessment rules seem to be having a bigger than expected impact too. For most of 2025, student visa applications were 8% higher than 2024. But figures for November 2025 are 14% lower than November 2024. Not the biggest month but points to a smaller January intake next year.
December 11, 2025 at 10:16 AM
The new basic compliance assessment rules seem to be having a bigger than expected impact too. For most of 2025, student visa applications were 8% higher than 2024. But figures for November 2025 are 14% lower than November 2024. Not the biggest month but points to a smaller January intake next year.
The restrictions on work visa rules brought in in July are cutting immigration much more than predicted. Dependant numbers remain higher, but will fall over time as most will be dependants of immigrants already here.
December 11, 2025 at 9:55 AM
The restrictions on work visa rules brought in in July are cutting immigration much more than predicted. Dependant numbers remain higher, but will fall over time as most will be dependants of immigrants already here.
The number of people crossing the Channel by small boat following the government's announcement of draconian rules for refugees. Not sure if this is just a coincidence but the announcement was made 17th November and the last crossing was 14th November.
December 3, 2025 at 6:34 PM
The number of people crossing the Channel by small boat following the government's announcement of draconian rules for refugees. Not sure if this is just a coincidence but the announcement was made 17th November and the last crossing was 14th November.
Why are my figures suggesting net migration will be negative in 2026 and 2027? Two reasons:
1. The fall in student emigration won't start until the latter half of 2027. Huge numbers of graduate visas were granted Jan 24-Jun 25.
2. The 15 year wait for ILR many people face will cause a mass exodus.
1. The fall in student emigration won't start until the latter half of 2027. Huge numbers of graduate visas were granted Jan 24-Jun 25.
2. The 15 year wait for ILR many people face will cause a mass exodus.
December 3, 2025 at 6:20 PM
Why are my figures suggesting net migration will be negative in 2026 and 2027? Two reasons:
1. The fall in student emigration won't start until the latter half of 2027. Huge numbers of graduate visas were granted Jan 24-Jun 25.
2. The 15 year wait for ILR many people face will cause a mass exodus.
1. The fall in student emigration won't start until the latter half of 2027. Huge numbers of graduate visas were granted Jan 24-Jun 25.
2. The 15 year wait for ILR many people face will cause a mass exodus.
Reposted by James Bowes
Net migration is plummeting. Why can’t Labour say so? | Heather Stewart
Net migration is plummeting. Why can’t Labour say so? | Heather Stewart
An honest debate is needed on this polarising topic as sectors such as social care struggle with recruitment
www.theguardian.com
November 30, 2025 at 12:01 PM
Net migration is plummeting. Why can’t Labour say so? | Heather Stewart
Revised net migration projection based on yesterday’s data, the new ILR policy and an expected gradual decline in dependant numbers (Currently dependant applications are double main applicant applications for work visas but this won’t last).
Yes it is negative in 2026. Roughly -110,000 to -10,000.
Yes it is negative in 2026. Roughly -110,000 to -10,000.
November 28, 2025 at 5:47 PM
Revised net migration projection based on yesterday’s data, the new ILR policy and an expected gradual decline in dependant numbers (Currently dependant applications are double main applicant applications for work visas but this won’t last).
Yes it is negative in 2026. Roughly -110,000 to -10,000.
Yes it is negative in 2026. Roughly -110,000 to -10,000.
Reposted by James Bowes
📉 The ONS has published stats that say net migration to UK drops 69% year on year
🤓 But we already knew that thanks to @jamesbowes01.bsky.social
You can read his piece predicting the collapse in net migration and its economic and political consequences here 👇
ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
🤓 But we already knew that thanks to @jamesbowes01.bsky.social
You can read his piece predicting the collapse in net migration and its economic and political consequences here 👇
ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
The coming collapse in immigration to the United Kingdom - UK in a changing Europe
James Bowes analyses the fall in net migration to the UK as a result of government policies and explores some of the political and economic consequences.
ukandeu.ac.uk
November 27, 2025 at 12:12 PM
📉 The ONS has published stats that say net migration to UK drops 69% year on year
🤓 But we already knew that thanks to @jamesbowes01.bsky.social
You can read his piece predicting the collapse in net migration and its economic and political consequences here 👇
ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
🤓 But we already knew that thanks to @jamesbowes01.bsky.social
You can read his piece predicting the collapse in net migration and its economic and political consequences here 👇
ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
Graduate visa numbers are falling now. Including dependants, half as many grants in Q3 2025 as in Q3 2024. Mainly because of the fall in international student numbers.
November 27, 2025 at 10:49 AM
Graduate visa numbers are falling now. Including dependants, half as many grants in Q3 2025 as in Q3 2024. Mainly because of the fall in international student numbers.
The scary thing is that the model I used in the article gave a figure of 323,000 because I didn’t know about the increased emigration of British nationals.
Adjusted to take that into account, it gives 237,000 which isn’t far off.
I’m still trying to work out how to model the harsher ILR changes.
Adjusted to take that into account, it gives 237,000 which isn’t far off.
I’m still trying to work out how to model the harsher ILR changes.
Though I have to say, much as @jamesbowes01.bsky.social predicted on the @ukandeu.bsky.social site recently 😉https://ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-collapse-in-immigration/
The coming collapse in immigration to the United Kingdom - UK in a changing Europe
James Bowes analyses the fall in net migration to the UK as a result of government policies and explores some of the political and economic consequences.
ukandeu.ac.uk
November 27, 2025 at 10:07 AM
The scary thing is that the model I used in the article gave a figure of 323,000 because I didn’t know about the increased emigration of British nationals.
Adjusted to take that into account, it gives 237,000 which isn’t far off.
I’m still trying to work out how to model the harsher ILR changes.
Adjusted to take that into account, it gives 237,000 which isn’t far off.
I’m still trying to work out how to model the harsher ILR changes.
Reposted by James Bowes
New govt settlement plans are tougher than most voters prefer. Half say graduate-level migrants should qualify within 5 years; 53% want mid-skilled to wait under 10 years. Only 21% back a 15-year wait for low-skilled workers—many think it should be 5 years or less.
November 27, 2025 at 7:44 AM
New govt settlement plans are tougher than most voters prefer. Half say graduate-level migrants should qualify within 5 years; 53% want mid-skilled to wait under 10 years. Only 21% back a 15-year wait for low-skilled workers—many think it should be 5 years or less.
Reposted by James Bowes
Labour really has a problem understanding that immigrants are people; and people plan their lives according to the rules that apply to them. You cannot just change the rules retrospectively, and you definitely cannot do so and claim you're doing it in the name of fairness.
November 27, 2025 at 6:48 AM
Labour really has a problem understanding that immigrants are people; and people plan their lives according to the rules that apply to them. You cannot just change the rules retrospectively, and you definitely cannot do so and claim you're doing it in the name of fairness.
Reposted by James Bowes
Today's immigration statistics (at 930) will likely show a further steep fall.
@jamesbowes01.bsky.social explains why.
ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
@jamesbowes01.bsky.social explains why.
ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
The coming collapse in immigration to the United Kingdom - UK in a changing Europe
James Bowes analyses the fall in net migration to the UK as a result of government policies and explores some of the political and economic consequences.
ukandeu.ac.uk
November 27, 2025 at 7:13 AM
Today's immigration statistics (at 930) will likely show a further steep fall.
@jamesbowes01.bsky.social explains why.
ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
@jamesbowes01.bsky.social explains why.
ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
Net migration figures for year ending June 2025 come out tomorrow. I’m expecting roughly 250,000 but remember this is before any of the immigration restrictions in the White Paper and before the emigration of graduate visa holders peaks. So net migration will fall far further than this.
November 26, 2025 at 8:56 PM
Net migration figures for year ending June 2025 come out tomorrow. I’m expecting roughly 250,000 but remember this is before any of the immigration restrictions in the White Paper and before the emigration of graduate visa holders peaks. So net migration will fall far further than this.
Reposted by James Bowes
Even if they reward top talent or new applicants from abroad with faster settlement times, why should they trust the immigration system when the goalposts can be moved at any time? It’s the precedent being set that makes the UK a very bad option for anyone outside looking in.
November 26, 2025 at 11:46 AM
Even if they reward top talent or new applicants from abroad with faster settlement times, why should they trust the immigration system when the goalposts can be moved at any time? It’s the precedent being set that makes the UK a very bad option for anyone outside looking in.
The top companies sponsoring work visas for people earning over £50,000 in 2024 (excluding health and care). Green is mostly skilled worker visa, blue mostly global business mobility visa and purple mostly temporary workers. Lots of finance, consulting and tech multinationals.
November 23, 2025 at 10:43 AM
The top companies sponsoring work visas for people earning over £50,000 in 2024 (excluding health and care). Green is mostly skilled worker visa, blue mostly global business mobility visa and purple mostly temporary workers. Lots of finance, consulting and tech multinationals.
The new ILR changes mean people on work visas doing jobs at a graduate level qualify for ILR in 3-10 years (depending on salary), but the vast majority of people in jobs below graduate level have to wait 15 years. This is the region of origin of people by skill level for visa grants Oct 24-Jun 25.
November 22, 2025 at 6:20 PM
The new ILR changes mean people on work visas doing jobs at a graduate level qualify for ILR in 3-10 years (depending on salary), but the vast majority of people in jobs below graduate level have to wait 15 years. This is the region of origin of people by skill level for visa grants Oct 24-Jun 25.
Reposted by James Bowes
Why the Home Office’s “earned settlement” proposals are anti-women
1. Dependants are hit hardest, and most dependants in Skilled Worker families are women. They are pushed onto a 10-year route with no acceleration.
1. Dependants are hit hardest, and most dependants in Skilled Worker families are women. They are pushed onto a 10-year route with no acceleration.
November 22, 2025 at 7:14 AM
Why the Home Office’s “earned settlement” proposals are anti-women
1. Dependants are hit hardest, and most dependants in Skilled Worker families are women. They are pushed onto a 10-year route with no acceleration.
1. Dependants are hit hardest, and most dependants in Skilled Worker families are women. They are pushed onto a 10-year route with no acceleration.