James Bowes
@jamesbowes01.bsky.social
Reposted by James Bowes
A key recent discussion about UK migration has been people's rights to settle permanemently - or "indefinite leave to remain" - but how many people have this status? Our latest piece gives you the info (NB - doesn't include EU settlement scheme) migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/co...
How many migrants in the UK have settlement? - Migration Observatory
This commentary estimates the number of non-EU citizens who currently have settlement, also known as indefinite leave to remain (ILR).
migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk
November 10, 2025 at 1:29 PM
A key recent discussion about UK migration has been people's rights to settle permanemently - or "indefinite leave to remain" - but how many people have this status? Our latest piece gives you the info (NB - doesn't include EU settlement scheme) migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/co...
Here’s my net migration model projected forwards two years (plus past figures). Net migration actually looks like hovering at about 300,000 in 2025 before coming crashing down in 2026. The government must avoid the temptation to cut immigration even further when they see these figures. (1/2)
November 7, 2025 at 1:09 PM
Here’s my net migration model projected forwards two years (plus past figures). Net migration actually looks like hovering at about 300,000 in 2025 before coming crashing down in 2026. The government must avoid the temptation to cut immigration even further when they see these figures. (1/2)
Reposted by James Bowes
Yesterday I helped give a presentation on immigration law options to a room full of people trapped by the Health and Care Visa.
Promised work, paid £££, unable to work and can't find new sponsors.
This crisis i wrote a thread on 5 months ago isn't going away.
Promised work, paid £££, unable to work and can't find new sponsors.
This crisis i wrote a thread on 5 months ago isn't going away.
The debate around care visas in the political space boils down to people saying stuff like this - we desperately need people.
It's a good soundbite but...
A significant surge in care visas were issued since 2020 in response to sector demand and yet the problem of shortage has persisted.
Why?
It's a good soundbite but...
A significant surge in care visas were issued since 2020 in response to sector demand and yet the problem of shortage has persisted.
Why?
BREAKING: “We will be closing the care worker visa for overseas recruitment” - Home Secretary Yvette Cooper
Don’t we have a desperate shortage of care workers?
Don’t we have a desperate shortage of care workers?
November 7, 2025 at 7:53 AM
Yesterday I helped give a presentation on immigration law options to a room full of people trapped by the Health and Care Visa.
Promised work, paid £££, unable to work and can't find new sponsors.
This crisis i wrote a thread on 5 months ago isn't going away.
Promised work, paid £££, unable to work and can't find new sponsors.
This crisis i wrote a thread on 5 months ago isn't going away.
Reposted by James Bowes
"Home Office data suggests that recent immigrants are more likely to be working than British nationals and make higher wages than them."
✍️ Lauren Gilbert argues that migrants to the UK are net fiscal contributors, adding much more to the economy than they take out,
ukandeu.ac.uk/lower-migrat...
✍️ Lauren Gilbert argues that migrants to the UK are net fiscal contributors, adding much more to the economy than they take out,
ukandeu.ac.uk/lower-migrat...
Lower migration is bad news for the UK economy - UK in a changing Europe
Lauren Gilbert argues that migrants to the UK are net fiscal contributors, adding much more to the economy than they take out, and that the recent collapse in immigration will harm the UK's economic p...
ukandeu.ac.uk
November 6, 2025 at 4:52 PM
"Home Office data suggests that recent immigrants are more likely to be working than British nationals and make higher wages than them."
✍️ Lauren Gilbert argues that migrants to the UK are net fiscal contributors, adding much more to the economy than they take out,
ukandeu.ac.uk/lower-migrat...
✍️ Lauren Gilbert argues that migrants to the UK are net fiscal contributors, adding much more to the economy than they take out,
ukandeu.ac.uk/lower-migrat...
Reposted by James Bowes
On 4 November, the Home Affairs Committee met with the Migration Advisory Committee to discuss the proposed changes to ILR. They brought up some very interesting points.
Part 1
Part 1
November 6, 2025 at 10:16 AM
On 4 November, the Home Affairs Committee met with the Migration Advisory Committee to discuss the proposed changes to ILR. They brought up some very interesting points.
Part 1
Part 1
Reposted by James Bowes
The far right want you to believe that immigration causes an explosion of crime.
It's simply untrue.
Crime has gone down - and crucially, we are a markedly less violent society than we once were.
It's simply untrue.
Crime has gone down - and crucially, we are a markedly less violent society than we once were.
November 5, 2025 at 8:30 AM
The far right want you to believe that immigration causes an explosion of crime.
It's simply untrue.
Crime has gone down - and crucially, we are a markedly less violent society than we once were.
It's simply untrue.
Crime has gone down - and crucially, we are a markedly less violent society than we once were.
People from these 80 overseas universities are now eligible for a 2 year work visa with the right to bring dependants. But if they studied at even a top ranking British university they’d have no right to bring dependants and from 2027 will be limited to 18 months. www.gov.uk/government/p...
High Potential Individual visa: global universities list 2025
www.gov.uk
November 4, 2025 at 2:37 PM
People from these 80 overseas universities are now eligible for a 2 year work visa with the right to bring dependants. But if they studied at even a top ranking British university they’d have no right to bring dependants and from 2027 will be limited to 18 months. www.gov.uk/government/p...
Whilst the fall in immigration to the UK is particularly large (likely a 80-90% fall in net migration from 2023 to 2026), it isn't unique amongst developed countries in seeing a fall in immigration: www.msn.com/en-gb/money/...
MSN
www.msn.com
November 4, 2025 at 12:27 PM
Whilst the fall in immigration to the UK is particularly large (likely a 80-90% fall in net migration from 2023 to 2026), it isn't unique amongst developed countries in seeing a fall in immigration: www.msn.com/en-gb/money/...
Reposted by James Bowes
Well the blog that @jamesbowes01.bsky.social did for us at @ukandeu.bsky.social on how net immigration figures are likely to fall steeply is certainly getting some pick up! Read the full piece here: ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
November 1, 2025 at 11:34 AM
Well the blog that @jamesbowes01.bsky.social did for us at @ukandeu.bsky.social on how net immigration figures are likely to fall steeply is certainly getting some pick up! Read the full piece here: ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
A big fall in asylum seekers crossing the Channel by small boat in October relative to last year. This doesn’t look like a random fluctuation. Possible reasons include fewer people reaching Europe and the end of refugee family reunification putting people off coming.
October 31, 2025 at 4:15 PM
A big fall in asylum seekers crossing the Channel by small boat in October relative to last year. This doesn’t look like a random fluctuation. Possible reasons include fewer people reaching Europe and the end of refugee family reunification putting people off coming.
Reposted by James Bowes
Over 40% of international students who arrived in the UK in 2022 had switched to a work visa by 2024 (mostly the Graduate visa designed for that purpose), Migration Observatory analysis shows migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/br...
October 31, 2025 at 11:22 AM
Over 40% of international students who arrived in the UK in 2022 had switched to a work visa by 2024 (mostly the Graduate visa designed for that purpose), Migration Observatory analysis shows migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/br...
Reposted by James Bowes
This is unusually sloppy for @jburnmurdoch.ft.com - uncharacteristically, he doesn't cite *any* data to back up his claims about the outcomes of the UK system.
But we have Home Office/HMRC data on this! Those on skilled work visas earn about 2x UK average..
www.ft.com/content/d70c...
But we have Home Office/HMRC data on this! Those on skilled work visas earn about 2x UK average..
www.ft.com/content/d70c...
October 31, 2025 at 7:40 AM
This is unusually sloppy for @jburnmurdoch.ft.com - uncharacteristically, he doesn't cite *any* data to back up his claims about the outcomes of the UK system.
But we have Home Office/HMRC data on this! Those on skilled work visas earn about 2x UK average..
www.ft.com/content/d70c...
But we have Home Office/HMRC data on this! Those on skilled work visas earn about 2x UK average..
www.ft.com/content/d70c...
Reposted by James Bowes
We know what migrants on work visas are doing in the labour market, but we know very little about the jobs their partners are doing and how much they're earning.
New FOI data sheds light on that.
New FOI data sheds light on that.
October 28, 2025 at 10:02 AM
We know what migrants on work visas are doing in the labour market, but we know very little about the jobs their partners are doing and how much they're earning.
New FOI data sheds light on that.
New FOI data sheds light on that.
Reposted by James Bowes
"Over the past decade, the continent has built a big, largely invisible fortress—one that carries enormous economic and moral risks. "
Me in Time on European migration policy
time.com/7328851/euro...
Me in Time on European migration policy
time.com/7328851/euro...
The Myth of Europe's Open Borders
The continent has built a big, invisible wall. But this approach comes with enormous economic and moral risks, writes Jonathan Portes.
time.com
October 29, 2025 at 8:06 PM
"Over the past decade, the continent has built a big, largely invisible fortress—one that carries enormous economic and moral risks. "
Me in Time on European migration policy
time.com/7328851/euro...
Me in Time on European migration policy
time.com/7328851/euro...
Reposted by James Bowes
Net migration by mid-year 2025 (stats in November) and year end 2025 (figures next Spring) will certainly be significantly down on 400k for 2024. Here @jamesbowes01.bsky.social suggests likely to fall below 200k in 2026, perhaps as low as 70-170k.
ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
The coming collapse in immigration to the United Kingdom - UK in a changing Europe
James Bowes analyses the fall in net migration to the UK as a result of government policies and explores some of the political and economic consequences.
ukandeu.ac.uk
October 29, 2025 at 1:55 PM
Net migration by mid-year 2025 (stats in November) and year end 2025 (figures next Spring) will certainly be significantly down on 400k for 2024. Here @jamesbowes01.bsky.social suggests likely to fall below 200k in 2026, perhaps as low as 70-170k.
ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
Reposted by James Bowes
Net migration to the UK is falling rapidly. But how far will it fall? A new, detailed estimate by @jamesbowes01.bsky.social projects net migration in 2026 will be 70K to 170K.
This will have significant consequences, both economic and political.
ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
This will have significant consequences, both economic and political.
ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
October 29, 2025 at 1:29 PM
Net migration to the UK is falling rapidly. But how far will it fall? A new, detailed estimate by @jamesbowes01.bsky.social projects net migration in 2026 will be 70K to 170K.
This will have significant consequences, both economic and political.
ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
This will have significant consequences, both economic and political.
ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
Reposted by James Bowes
📉 "Any political benefit the government may gain from this fall in immigration could be jeopardised by the economic damage that it causes."
🖊️ @jamesbowes01.bsky.social analyses the fall in net migration to the UK and the potential political and economic consequences
ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
🖊️ @jamesbowes01.bsky.social analyses the fall in net migration to the UK and the potential political and economic consequences
ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
The coming collapse in immigration to the United Kingdom - UK in a changing Europe
James Bowes analyses the fall in net migration to the UK as a result of government policies and explores some of the political and economic consequences.
ukandeu.ac.uk
October 29, 2025 at 1:23 PM
📉 "Any political benefit the government may gain from this fall in immigration could be jeopardised by the economic damage that it causes."
🖊️ @jamesbowes01.bsky.social analyses the fall in net migration to the UK and the potential political and economic consequences
ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
🖊️ @jamesbowes01.bsky.social analyses the fall in net migration to the UK and the potential political and economic consequences
ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
Reposted by James Bowes
The Conservative immigration proposals cannot be allowed to stand without a profound and widespread statement of moral condemnation inews.co.uk/opinion/tori...
October 22, 2025 at 4:05 PM
The Conservative immigration proposals cannot be allowed to stand without a profound and widespread statement of moral condemnation inews.co.uk/opinion/tori...
High skilled workers have recently gotten even more concentrated amongst people from high income countries. Mainly because of the Home Office rejecting more visas from Pakistanis, Bangladeshis, Nigerians and Sri Lankans. 2/3 of the people from lower middle income countries are now Indians.
October 20, 2025 at 12:35 PM
High skilled workers have recently gotten even more concentrated amongst people from high income countries. Mainly because of the Home Office rejecting more visas from Pakistanis, Bangladeshis, Nigerians and Sri Lankans. 2/3 of the people from lower middle income countries are now Indians.
The government are making it ever more punitive to come here on a work visa and assume that there is a limitless supply of people who will just come here anyway. But over 2/3 of high skilled workers (excluding health and care) actually come from high or upper-middle income countries.
October 20, 2025 at 9:52 AM
The government are making it ever more punitive to come here on a work visa and assume that there is a limitless supply of people who will just come here anyway. But over 2/3 of high skilled workers (excluding health and care) actually come from high or upper-middle income countries.
Reposted by James Bowes
Apropos of nothing, I really do think UK journalists and politicians need some reminding that mass deportation of LEGAL immigrants, particularly those with permanent status, is far more extreme than even Trump's America and would basically place Britain completely on its own among democracies.
October 19, 2025 at 11:32 AM
Apropos of nothing, I really do think UK journalists and politicians need some reminding that mass deportation of LEGAL immigrants, particularly those with permanent status, is far more extreme than even Trump's America and would basically place Britain completely on its own among democracies.
Reposted by James Bowes
Do migration policies impact men and women the same way? Our latest briefing on Gender and Migration to the UK takes a closer look at this question
Migration and gender in the UK - Migration Observatory
This report looks at how different immigration routes affect men and women, and how this has changed over time.
migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk
October 17, 2025 at 10:58 AM
Do migration policies impact men and women the same way? Our latest briefing on Gender and Migration to the UK takes a closer look at this question
Reposted by James Bowes
More rules changes coming today, include:
Botswana visa free travel stopped from 15:00 today.
Graduate route reduced to 18 months for most.
English language requirements for several work routes will be increased to B2 level from Jan 2026.
questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-stat...
Botswana visa free travel stopped from 15:00 today.
Graduate route reduced to 18 months for most.
English language requirements for several work routes will be increased to B2 level from Jan 2026.
questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-stat...
Written statements - Written questions, answers and statements - UK Parliament
Information from UK Parliament on written questions & answers, written statements and daily reports.
questions-statements.parliament.uk
October 14, 2025 at 10:45 AM
More rules changes coming today, include:
Botswana visa free travel stopped from 15:00 today.
Graduate route reduced to 18 months for most.
English language requirements for several work routes will be increased to B2 level from Jan 2026.
questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-stat...
Botswana visa free travel stopped from 15:00 today.
Graduate route reduced to 18 months for most.
English language requirements for several work routes will be increased to B2 level from Jan 2026.
questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-stat...
www.gov.uk/government/p...
A few thoughts on this:
1. If jobs are downgraded to NQF level 1-2 then that usually means you can only renew a visa if it’s the same occupation and same employer. The proposal here would affect many of the most common non-graduate jobs for people to do on visas. (1/x)
A few thoughts on this:
1. If jobs are downgraded to NQF level 1-2 then that usually means you can only renew a visa if it’s the same occupation and same employer. The proposal here would affect many of the most common non-graduate jobs for people to do on visas. (1/x)
October 11, 2025 at 6:42 PM
www.gov.uk/government/p...
A few thoughts on this:
1. If jobs are downgraded to NQF level 1-2 then that usually means you can only renew a visa if it’s the same occupation and same employer. The proposal here would affect many of the most common non-graduate jobs for people to do on visas. (1/x)
A few thoughts on this:
1. If jobs are downgraded to NQF level 1-2 then that usually means you can only renew a visa if it’s the same occupation and same employer. The proposal here would affect many of the most common non-graduate jobs for people to do on visas. (1/x)
35% of New Zealanders moving to Australia were born outside of New Zealand (and 48% of New Zealanders applying for Australian citizenship). 60% of Canadians applying for a US employment based green card are born outside of Canada. This is similar to Western Europeans who came to the UK under FoM.
October 11, 2025 at 11:06 AM
35% of New Zealanders moving to Australia were born outside of New Zealand (and 48% of New Zealanders applying for Australian citizenship). 60% of Canadians applying for a US employment based green card are born outside of Canada. This is similar to Western Europeans who came to the UK under FoM.