James Bowes
@jamesbowes01.bsky.social
Here’s my net migration model projected forwards two years (plus past figures). Net migration actually looks like hovering at about 300,000 in 2025 before coming crashing down in 2026. The government must avoid the temptation to cut immigration even further when they see these figures. (1/2)
November 7, 2025 at 1:09 PM
Here’s my net migration model projected forwards two years (plus past figures). Net migration actually looks like hovering at about 300,000 in 2025 before coming crashing down in 2026. The government must avoid the temptation to cut immigration even further when they see these figures. (1/2)
This is how it looks as a time series. Obviously 2025 and 2026 are projections but the trend can be seen from data we already have.
November 5, 2025 at 5:18 PM
This is how it looks as a time series. Obviously 2025 and 2026 are projections but the trend can be seen from data we already have.
This is my projection for 2026. I can’t help but suspect I’m overestimating graduate visa switchers. I don’t have a better way to model this but if I am overestimating we‘re looking at more like net 50,000-150,000 in 2026. If not then the new entrant rate becomes ever more significant.
November 4, 2025 at 4:50 PM
This is my projection for 2026. I can’t help but suspect I’m overestimating graduate visa switchers. I don’t have a better way to model this but if I am overestimating we‘re looking at more like net 50,000-150,000 in 2026. If not then the new entrant rate becomes ever more significant.
55% of new skilled worker grants in 2024 were for people eligible for the new entrant discount. I know not everyone here will actually be using it, but it will still be a lot of people that get caught out after 4 years (minus time on the graduate visa).
November 2, 2025 at 12:06 PM
55% of new skilled worker grants in 2024 were for people eligible for the new entrant discount. I know not everyone here will actually be using it, but it will still be a lot of people that get caught out after 4 years (minus time on the graduate visa).
This isn’t something I included in my model by the way but looks like numbers are starting to fall. October 2025 is about half the level of October 2024.
November 1, 2025 at 12:28 PM
This isn’t something I included in my model by the way but looks like numbers are starting to fall. October 2025 is about half the level of October 2024.
A big fall in asylum seekers crossing the Channel by small boat in October relative to last year. This doesn’t look like a random fluctuation. Possible reasons include fewer people reaching Europe and the end of refugee family reunification putting people off coming.
October 31, 2025 at 4:15 PM
A big fall in asylum seekers crossing the Channel by small boat in October relative to last year. This doesn’t look like a random fluctuation. Possible reasons include fewer people reaching Europe and the end of refugee family reunification putting people off coming.
Obviously leaving the EU was a major factor in it being harder to attract workers from the EU but even if we’d stayed it would have gotten a lot harder for both demographic (low birth rate) and economic (rapidly growing economy in countries like Poland) reasons.
October 29, 2025 at 10:38 PM
Obviously leaving the EU was a major factor in it being harder to attract workers from the EU but even if we’d stayed it would have gotten a lot harder for both demographic (low birth rate) and economic (rapidly growing economy in countries like Poland) reasons.
Yes most work visa grants are in country to people who already have a work visa but are changing jobs. About a quarter of the in country work visa grants are to people switching from a student or graduate visa but nearly all of the rest had a work visa.
October 26, 2025 at 1:09 PM
Yes most work visa grants are in country to people who already have a work visa but are changing jobs. About a quarter of the in country work visa grants are to people switching from a student or graduate visa but nearly all of the rest had a work visa.
A temporary visa is less appealing than freedom of movement but also this is what happened in Germany:
October 22, 2025 at 10:12 AM
A temporary visa is less appealing than freedom of movement but also this is what happened in Germany:
This is what happened in Germany.
October 22, 2025 at 9:11 AM
This is what happened in Germany.
High skilled workers have recently gotten even more concentrated amongst people from high income countries. Mainly because of the Home Office rejecting more visas from Pakistanis, Bangladeshis, Nigerians and Sri Lankans. 2/3 of the people from lower middle income countries are now Indians.
October 20, 2025 at 12:35 PM
High skilled workers have recently gotten even more concentrated amongst people from high income countries. Mainly because of the Home Office rejecting more visas from Pakistanis, Bangladeshis, Nigerians and Sri Lankans. 2/3 of the people from lower middle income countries are now Indians.
Medium-skilled workers and health and care workers are mostly from lower-middle income countries. But the former are now heavily restricted in coming here and the latter are in high demand in other countries (doctors and nurses) or banned from coming here from overseas (care workers).
October 20, 2025 at 9:54 AM
Medium-skilled workers and health and care workers are mostly from lower-middle income countries. But the former are now heavily restricted in coming here and the latter are in high demand in other countries (doctors and nurses) or banned from coming here from overseas (care workers).
The government are making it ever more punitive to come here on a work visa and assume that there is a limitless supply of people who will just come here anyway. But over 2/3 of high skilled workers (excluding health and care) actually come from high or upper-middle income countries.
October 20, 2025 at 9:52 AM
The government are making it ever more punitive to come here on a work visa and assume that there is a limitless supply of people who will just come here anyway. But over 2/3 of high skilled workers (excluding health and care) actually come from high or upper-middle income countries.
These are based on government estimates but it’s very clear that the fall in net immigration from 2023 to 2024 was mainly in the second half of the year.
October 15, 2025 at 4:42 PM
These are based on government estimates but it’s very clear that the fall in net immigration from 2023 to 2024 was mainly in the second half of the year.
The only thing I can find on graduate visa switchers is this which shows people doing a professional job are the most common, but people are overrepresented in associate professional and technical jobs (likely TSL) relative to other work visa holders. This predates the salary threshold rise though.
October 12, 2025 at 3:12 PM
The only thing I can find on graduate visa switchers is this which shows people doing a professional job are the most common, but people are overrepresented in associate professional and technical jobs (likely TSL) relative to other work visa holders. This predates the salary threshold rise though.
Excluding social care, for jobs below graduate level it’s roughly a 40:40:20 split of jobs initially recommended for the TSL: jobs that have dropped below NQF level 3 : jobs that remain NQF level 3 but not on the TSL.
October 9, 2025 at 12:52 PM
Excluding social care, for jobs below graduate level it’s roughly a 40:40:20 split of jobs initially recommended for the TSL: jobs that have dropped below NQF level 3 : jobs that remain NQF level 3 but not on the TSL.
Red are the ones that would be below NQF level 3 (technically care workers always were but had an exemption).
October 9, 2025 at 12:22 PM
Red are the ones that would be below NQF level 3 (technically care workers always were but had an exemption).
India is the top country but China and other East Asian countries are particularly overrepresented (they don’t allow dual citizenship either). USA, Canada and Australia also overrepresented but they do allow dual citizenship.
October 6, 2025 at 11:02 AM
India is the top country but China and other East Asian countries are particularly overrepresented (they don’t allow dual citizenship either). USA, Canada and Australia also overrepresented but they do allow dual citizenship.
I'm missing two quarters of data from 2024 (because the government changed how they categorised occupations from SOC2010 to SOC2020). There's a clear cyclical pattern, but the drop is nevertheless very clear here.
October 5, 2025 at 8:36 AM
I'm missing two quarters of data from 2024 (because the government changed how they categorised occupations from SOC2010 to SOC2020). There's a clear cyclical pattern, but the drop is nevertheless very clear here.
It’ll be interesting to see what happens with the boats. Crossings into the EU have dropped sharply but it takes a while for people to reach the UK so the fall hasn’t affected here yet. A lot of people coming were already in Germany but have moved here after the asylum rules there got stricter.
October 4, 2025 at 7:04 PM
It’ll be interesting to see what happens with the boats. Crossings into the EU have dropped sharply but it takes a while for people to reach the UK so the fall hasn’t affected here yet. A lot of people coming were already in Germany but have moved here after the asylum rules there got stricter.
You might be thinking, surely immigration restrictions won't work as they've always failed in the past. However, David Cameron was very actually successful at cutting non-EU immigration dramatically. The only thing is EU immigration increased to fill the gap, which couldn't happen this time. (6/x)
October 4, 2025 at 1:46 PM
You might be thinking, surely immigration restrictions won't work as they've always failed in the past. However, David Cameron was very actually successful at cutting non-EU immigration dramatically. The only thing is EU immigration increased to fill the gap, which couldn't happen this time. (6/x)
The 10 year wait for Indefinite Leave to Remain will make the UK very unattractive for high skilled workers who often have alternatives. 2019 data (excluding the NHS and universities) shows that high skilled workers on visas are heavily concentrated in multinationals who can move jobs abroad (5/x)
October 4, 2025 at 1:43 PM
The 10 year wait for Indefinite Leave to Remain will make the UK very unattractive for high skilled workers who often have alternatives. 2019 data (excluding the NHS and universities) shows that high skilled workers on visas are heavily concentrated in multinationals who can move jobs abroad (5/x)
A surprisingly large part of net immigration has been driven by the rapid increase in the number of people taking up the graduate visa. However, this visa is time limited and the increase appears to have finally peaked. Dependant numbers will fall due to the ban on dependants of students (4/x)
October 4, 2025 at 1:40 PM
A surprisingly large part of net immigration has been driven by the rapid increase in the number of people taking up the graduate visa. However, this visa is time limited and the increase appears to have finally peaked. Dependant numbers will fall due to the ban on dependants of students (4/x)
Furthermore, there has been a huge drop in demand for workers in the graduate level jobs, despite these jobs remaining eligible for a work visa. Reasons for this include post pandemic vacancies already being filled, weaker economy, take up of AI and outsourcing of jobs due to remote working. (3/x)
October 4, 2025 at 1:37 PM
Furthermore, there has been a huge drop in demand for workers in the graduate level jobs, despite these jobs remaining eligible for a work visa. Reasons for this include post pandemic vacancies already being filled, weaker economy, take up of AI and outsourcing of jobs due to remote working. (3/x)