Swaraj Kumar
swaraj.bsky.social
Swaraj Kumar
@swaraj.bsky.social
Math and Macro
Reposted by Swaraj Kumar
No need to ask, he’s a Smoot operator.
April 2, 2025 at 8:21 PM
Reposted by Swaraj Kumar
My Trade Secrets today. The EU’s rushing to build a Starlink alternative, not just for Ukraine but economic security.

It will cost tens of billions, but as the price of preserving world trade it’s an insurance premium well worth paying.

First 300 clicks free.

on.ft.com/4igLboQ
Europe tries to fix its plumbing — and leave Starlink behind
[FREE TO READ] Many governments outside the US do not want to rely on Elon Musk’s satellite company
on.ft.com
March 20, 2025 at 7:38 AM
Reposted by Swaraj Kumar
Yeah agree. Just waiting for one of my personal white whales—The LHS of the $ smile turning out to be Maginot Line of Global Macro.
March 13, 2025 at 6:32 PM
@iyerc.bsky.social left the other site?
February 12, 2025 at 8:22 PM
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Die Hard is indeed a Christmas movie, but It’s a Wonderful Life is a Financial Stability movie and A Christmas Story is a film about Reflationary Military Keynesianism.
December 21, 2024 at 5:42 PM
or when i miss @smtuffy.bsky.social’s finreg memes
sometimes when i get bored of the other app
December 12, 2024 at 7:27 PM
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Breaking news: Syrian rebels have seized Damascus and toppled the Assad dynasty www.ft.com/content/a953...
December 8, 2024 at 8:01 AM
market so boring today that i had to open this app
December 3, 2024 at 7:17 AM
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We’re all suffering from qualitynesia now. Enjoyed this. on.ft.com/49lFF0c
We’re all suffering from qualitynesia now
Borne along on the tide of technology, it is far too easy to forget that some things really were better quality in the past
on.ft.com
December 3, 2024 at 6:21 AM
Reposted by Swaraj Kumar
November 23, 2024 at 9:18 PM
Reposted by Swaraj Kumar
Here's a take that seeks to explain a Vance/Bessent divide on dollar centrality by linking it to the latter's preference for using a combination of military strength, $ centrality, and market size all at once to further both economic and geopolitical goals.

responsiblestatecraft.org/scott-bessent/
Bessent: Strong dollar, tariffs can wield US power on world stage
Trump's nomination for Treasury secretary has the support of Wall Street and a hawkish view of macro economics
responsiblestatecraft.org
November 25, 2024 at 3:26 PM
Reposted by Swaraj Kumar
Very interesting from @swaraj.bsky.social: cash transfer programs to women have really taken off across Indian states; ~1% of state GDP and 5-7% of spending in the top ones.

They boost income substantially for recipients (5-40%), and are expected to increase consumption a lot as well
November 25, 2024 at 4:10 PM
Reposted by Swaraj Kumar
I’m don’t get the saying “have your cake and eat it too.”

The whole value of a cake comes from eating it. What would be the point of just having a cake but not consuming? This is just one good compound thing, not some greedy concatenation of two separate items.
November 24, 2024 at 8:13 PM
social media
Was thinking about Internet cafes. And the associated culture. Briefly pervasive and futuristic and now ancient, obsolete. Is there anything else that followed the same blazing trajectory?
November 24, 2024 at 7:29 PM
i’m the prominent media memer. please follow me y’all
A lot of prominent media members are giving this platform a shot and don’t yet have their normal big follower numbers. It’s a good time to engage with them and show that it’s worth spending time here.
November 24, 2024 at 7:24 PM
this intro slaps
November 23, 2024 at 9:24 PM
Reposted by Swaraj Kumar
So chaos scenario. Mass deportations create huge labour imbalance. Fed starts hiking again. Trump appoints lacky as new chair. Powell stays on as part of the Board. Civil war within FOMC. Fed funds and IoER diverge, as different factions push the policy levers they control in different directions. 🤣
November 23, 2024 at 11:39 AM
Reposted by Swaraj Kumar
Hey, how would you trade the currency of a country where the incoming government could blow out the fiscal deficit, impose massive tariffs to support import-substitution, and maybe jawbone the central bank into easier monetary policy than might be cyclically appropriate?

Hmm. It depends, I guess.
November 19, 2024 at 6:51 PM
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Probably fine.
November 19, 2024 at 8:46 AM
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macroeconomics isn’t “astrology for men” — astrology is astrology for men
November 18, 2024 at 2:19 PM
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My head hurts.
November 18, 2024 at 1:38 PM
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First time I’ve ever got something that wasn’t just random letters:
November 17, 2024 at 4:36 PM
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My grandmother sprung my grandfather out of a Nazi prison by dressing up as a nurse.
Give me one interesting fact about your family history that you learned.
November 16, 2024 at 3:10 PM
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I did an explainer
November 16, 2024 at 6:04 PM
Reposted by Swaraj Kumar
General view on Europe:

- Europe econ pessimism seems to be high
- Economic data surprises have bottomed in line with last year
- No reason inflation should remain elevated given wages are now slowing. It’s just lagged data
- ECB in damage control mode which is good! Needs fiscal help now.
November 16, 2024 at 9:51 AM