VK
@vkmacro.bsky.social
Reposted by VK
he's not here to close spreads
January 27, 2026 at 9:26 PM
he's not here to close spreads
Most my convos this week w clients were about if UST were signalling desire for broader USD weakness. I felt no, but this will absolutely stoke those fears
absolute scenes
*TRUMP: DOLLAR IS DOING GREAT
*TRUMP DOESN'T THINK DOLLAR DECLINED TOO MUCH
*BLOOMBERG DOLLAR INDEX FALLS MORE THAN 1% AFTER TRUMP REMARKS
*DOLLAR TUMBLES AFTER TRUMP SAYS NOT CONCERNED WITH ITS DECLINE
*TRUMP: DOLLAR IS DOING GREAT
*TRUMP DOESN'T THINK DOLLAR DECLINED TOO MUCH
*BLOOMBERG DOLLAR INDEX FALLS MORE THAN 1% AFTER TRUMP REMARKS
*DOLLAR TUMBLES AFTER TRUMP SAYS NOT CONCERNED WITH ITS DECLINE
January 27, 2026 at 8:57 PM
Most my convos this week w clients were about if UST were signalling desire for broader USD weakness. I felt no, but this will absolutely stoke those fears
Booom
But seriously, while they are smashing it, how can you have any confidence in their moat?
But seriously, while they are smashing it, how can you have any confidence in their moat?
FT Exclusive: Anthropic is set to raise about $20bn from venture capitalists and other investors. The fundraising deal, which is close to being finalised, would value the AI company at $350bn. ft.trib.al/ye2oRk9
January 27, 2026 at 7:08 PM
Booom
But seriously, while they are smashing it, how can you have any confidence in their moat?
But seriously, while they are smashing it, how can you have any confidence in their moat?
Reposted by VK
When America’s biggest Shinzo Abe fan checks rates to try to call a top in USDJPY shortly before appointing a possible Kuroda clone to run the Fed, you should probably listen?
January 27, 2026 at 4:03 PM
When America’s biggest Shinzo Abe fan checks rates to try to call a top in USDJPY shortly before appointing a possible Kuroda clone to run the Fed, you should probably listen?
Copper needs to trade 15% cheaper imo
January 26, 2026 at 9:57 PM
Copper needs to trade 15% cheaper imo
So in the AI space, every one of these price gains will have to be eaten by Hyperscalers right?
Nvidia isn’t lowering gross margins yet - that’s a MT/ LT story
So for now, higher memory, copper, powder costs are all reducing ROI
Nvidia isn’t lowering gross margins yet - that’s a MT/ LT story
So for now, higher memory, copper, powder costs are all reducing ROI
January 26, 2026 at 8:18 AM
So in the AI space, every one of these price gains will have to be eaten by Hyperscalers right?
Nvidia isn’t lowering gross margins yet - that’s a MT/ LT story
So for now, higher memory, copper, powder costs are all reducing ROI
Nvidia isn’t lowering gross margins yet - that’s a MT/ LT story
So for now, higher memory, copper, powder costs are all reducing ROI
Right up my alley
My essay 'Should Galadriel have taken the Ring?' has been nominated for the #BSFA Award for Best Short Non Fiction and @speculativeinsight.bsky.social have very kindly made it free to read for the voting period. So please read to find out about the significance of #Galadriel being the Fairy Queen.
Should Galadriel have taken the Ring? — Speculative Insight
The Fourth Age under the dominion of men isn’t going too well, is it? Did the free peoples of Middle-earth really combine to overthrow Sauron so that the world would be delivered on a plate to the lik...
www.speculativeinsight.com
January 25, 2026 at 8:23 AM
Right up my alley
Reposted by VK
Quick shout out to @tobiasharris.bsky.social for absolutely sterling work covering Japan’s complex (and increasingly fast-moving) politics. His newsletter is an invaluable resource for anyone working/studying/investing in the country.
January 24, 2026 at 2:00 PM
Quick shout out to @tobiasharris.bsky.social for absolutely sterling work covering Japan’s complex (and increasingly fast-moving) politics. His newsletter is an invaluable resource for anyone working/studying/investing in the country.
I The way the Treasury has historically intervened is via their Exchange Rate Stabilisation Fund. This Fund is currently about $200bn so much smaller than FX reserves held by MoF.
January 23, 2026 at 6:45 PM
I The way the Treasury has historically intervened is via their Exchange Rate Stabilisation Fund. This Fund is currently about $200bn so much smaller than FX reserves held by MoF.
UST rate check all but confirmed… truly back to the 90’s type stuff.
January 23, 2026 at 6:16 PM
UST rate check all but confirmed… truly back to the 90’s type stuff.
Reposted by VK
Rejoined the Macro Hive podcast to speak with
@vkmacro.bsky.social about what the heck is going on in the oil market and how to parse the numerous conflicting data points/narratives.
Viresh is one of the best cross-asset analysts—also superb oil-specific insights!—with whom I regularly chat.
@vkmacro.bsky.social about what the heck is going on in the oil market and how to parse the numerous conflicting data points/narratives.
Viresh is one of the best cross-asset analysts—also superb oil-specific insights!—with whom I regularly chat.
January 23, 2026 at 2:55 PM
Rejoined the Macro Hive podcast to speak with
@vkmacro.bsky.social about what the heck is going on in the oil market and how to parse the numerous conflicting data points/narratives.
Viresh is one of the best cross-asset analysts—also superb oil-specific insights!—with whom I regularly chat.
@vkmacro.bsky.social about what the heck is going on in the oil market and how to parse the numerous conflicting data points/narratives.
Viresh is one of the best cross-asset analysts—also superb oil-specific insights!—with whom I regularly chat.
Reposted by VK
Meanwhile, UST 5s continues its cheapening trend YTD vs broad curve. Typical price action as cut cycle nears an end
2s5s30s curve
2s5s30s curve
January 23, 2026 at 2:12 PM
Meanwhile, UST 5s continues its cheapening trend YTD vs broad curve. Typical price action as cut cycle nears an end
2s5s30s curve
2s5s30s curve
Absolute 🔥 by Ben Thompson
What could really kill the AI bubble is that not enough people were investing in capacity in 2025, meaning there’s a massive shortage of compute in 2028/29
Not that we invested too much.
What could really kill the AI bubble is that not enough people were investing in capacity in 2025, meaning there’s a massive shortage of compute in 2028/29
Not that we invested too much.
January 23, 2026 at 1:32 PM
Absolute 🔥 by Ben Thompson
What could really kill the AI bubble is that not enough people were investing in capacity in 2025, meaning there’s a massive shortage of compute in 2028/29
Not that we invested too much.
What could really kill the AI bubble is that not enough people were investing in capacity in 2025, meaning there’s a massive shortage of compute in 2028/29
Not that we invested too much.
Ben Bajarin: we cannot trace grace Blackwell GPU pricing since you have to be an established corporation or startup and be willing to engage in a long term contract with a hyperscaler to even get a quote
January 23, 2026 at 12:53 PM
Ben Bajarin: we cannot trace grace Blackwell GPU pricing since you have to be an established corporation or startup and be willing to engage in a long term contract with a hyperscaler to even get a quote
20y fwd 10y JGB now trades above 20y10y UST
Japan's bond market looking a tiny bit more like everyone else's, which might create problems for everyone else, as well as for the government...
By @urbandirt.bsky.social @davidkeo.bsky.social + me
www.ft.com/content/e2ae...
By @urbandirt.bsky.social @davidkeo.bsky.social + me
www.ft.com/content/e2ae...
January 23, 2026 at 10:47 AM
20y fwd 10y JGB now trades above 20y10y UST
Everything’s looking more pro growth isn’t it?
January 23, 2026 at 9:35 AM
Everything’s looking more pro growth isn’t it?
I am enjoying this discourse:
Q: what is nvda’s moat?
A: software w/ cuda
Q: What is AI doing?
A: Reducing value of software as it can be replaced easily and also customised better
Q: But what does that mean for NVDA’s most?
A: …
Q: what is nvda’s moat?
A: software w/ cuda
Q: What is AI doing?
A: Reducing value of software as it can be replaced easily and also customised better
Q: But what does that mean for NVDA’s most?
A: …
January 22, 2026 at 7:43 PM
I am enjoying this discourse:
Q: what is nvda’s moat?
A: software w/ cuda
Q: What is AI doing?
A: Reducing value of software as it can be replaced easily and also customised better
Q: But what does that mean for NVDA’s most?
A: …
Q: what is nvda’s moat?
A: software w/ cuda
Q: What is AI doing?
A: Reducing value of software as it can be replaced easily and also customised better
Q: But what does that mean for NVDA’s most?
A: …
Always a fun read
Credit spreads are very expensive vs history everywhere
Source: Schroders Credit Lens www.schroders.com/en-gb/uk/int...
Not investment advice. Opinions my own and do not represent the views of Schroders. DYOR
Source: Schroders Credit Lens www.schroders.com/en-gb/uk/int...
Not investment advice. Opinions my own and do not represent the views of Schroders. DYOR
January 22, 2026 at 11:27 AM
Always a fun read
Anyone have good tips on sell discipline during parabolas?
January 22, 2026 at 5:09 AM
Anyone have good tips on sell discipline during parabolas?
Thread on some work I’ve done in PE
January 21, 2026 at 3:24 PM
Thread on some work I’ve done in PE
Sorry I’m not spending even 1m watching any of this. Only thing I’ve watched so far is Carney and AI stuff
January 21, 2026 at 3:04 PM
Sorry I’m not spending even 1m watching any of this. Only thing I’ve watched so far is Carney and AI stuff
Over the past three months foreign investors have net taken money out of SK equities.
Since the start of 2025, they’ve not invested net any new cash.
Definitely some profit taking, but shows that no one believes the AI/ memory rally.
How do you expect the locals to?
Since the start of 2025, they’ve not invested net any new cash.
Definitely some profit taking, but shows that no one believes the AI/ memory rally.
How do you expect the locals to?
January 21, 2026 at 1:09 PM
Over the past three months foreign investors have net taken money out of SK equities.
Since the start of 2025, they’ve not invested net any new cash.
Definitely some profit taking, but shows that no one believes the AI/ memory rally.
How do you expect the locals to?
Since the start of 2025, they’ve not invested net any new cash.
Definitely some profit taking, but shows that no one believes the AI/ memory rally.
How do you expect the locals to?
Know what you own and why you own it.
But actually it’s interesting how poor the S&P broad value index is given their loose definitions.
I’m fine with meta being in a value index.
But actually it’s interesting how poor the S&P broad value index is given their loose definitions.
I’m fine with meta being in a value index.
🚨Did you know passive Value strategies are stuffed with Tesla, Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft?
+ other tech cos.
I don’t think passive value will deliver diversification
Passive popular because inv. disappointed with active
↩️ may shift back to active because disappointed with passive
+ other tech cos.
I don’t think passive value will deliver diversification
Passive popular because inv. disappointed with active
↩️ may shift back to active because disappointed with passive
January 21, 2026 at 9:59 AM
Know what you own and why you own it.
But actually it’s interesting how poor the S&P broad value index is given their loose definitions.
I’m fine with meta being in a value index.
But actually it’s interesting how poor the S&P broad value index is given their loose definitions.
I’m fine with meta being in a value index.
Wages rolling over, unemployment grinding up, job losses continuing, an administration prices are likely less of an issue this year.
Taylor thinks neutral is around 2.75%. I’m not saying I know where it is, but does open up room for rates to move lower.
Taylor thinks neutral is around 2.75%. I’m not saying I know where it is, but does open up room for rates to move lower.
UK inflation data very slightly lower than expected for Core and Services, as is PPI ✔️
January 21, 2026 at 7:03 AM
Wages rolling over, unemployment grinding up, job losses continuing, an administration prices are likely less of an issue this year.
Taylor thinks neutral is around 2.75%. I’m not saying I know where it is, but does open up room for rates to move lower.
Taylor thinks neutral is around 2.75%. I’m not saying I know where it is, but does open up room for rates to move lower.