Arpit Gupta
@arpitrage.bsky.social
Associate Professor of Finance, NYU Stern
Newsletter: arpitrage.substack.com
Website: arpitgupta.info
Newsletter: arpitrage.substack.com
Website: arpitgupta.info
Reposted by Arpit Gupta
This is a really good discussion of “applied” AI in a non-coding/SWE space.
Week two of my AI in Finance course:
• Financial document intelligence
• The jagged frontier of AI capabilities
• Why your AI is lying to you, will we ever get to truth, and how to use RAG to deal with it
arpitrage.substack.com/p/2-when-you...
• Financial document intelligence
• The jagged frontier of AI capabilities
• Why your AI is lying to you, will we ever get to truth, and how to use RAG to deal with it
arpitrage.substack.com/p/2-when-you...
2. When Your AI is Lying To You
Financial Document Intelligence, Hallucinations, and how to Ground AI in Reality
arpitrage.substack.com
February 9, 2026 at 4:36 PM
This is a really good discussion of “applied” AI in a non-coding/SWE space.
Week two of my AI in Finance course:
• Financial document intelligence
• The jagged frontier of AI capabilities
• Why your AI is lying to you, will we ever get to truth, and how to use RAG to deal with it
arpitrage.substack.com/p/2-when-you...
• Financial document intelligence
• The jagged frontier of AI capabilities
• Why your AI is lying to you, will we ever get to truth, and how to use RAG to deal with it
arpitrage.substack.com/p/2-when-you...
2. When Your AI is Lying To You
Financial Document Intelligence, Hallucinations, and how to Ground AI in Reality
arpitrage.substack.com
February 9, 2026 at 4:14 PM
Week two of my AI in Finance course:
• Financial document intelligence
• The jagged frontier of AI capabilities
• Why your AI is lying to you, will we ever get to truth, and how to use RAG to deal with it
arpitrage.substack.com/p/2-when-you...
• Financial document intelligence
• The jagged frontier of AI capabilities
• Why your AI is lying to you, will we ever get to truth, and how to use RAG to deal with it
arpitrage.substack.com/p/2-when-you...
I'm teaching a new course at Stern on AI in Finance and opening it up!
Syllabus/slides on Github: github.com/arpitrage/ai...
Weekly summaries on Substack
arpitrage.substack.com/p/1-three-ru...
First post is on Amdahl's Law, Jevons' Paradox, and why finance was slow to learn the bitter lesson
Syllabus/slides on Github: github.com/arpitrage/ai...
Weekly summaries on Substack
arpitrage.substack.com/p/1-three-ru...
First post is on Amdahl's Law, Jevons' Paradox, and why finance was slow to learn the bitter lesson
February 2, 2026 at 6:32 PM
I'm teaching a new course at Stern on AI in Finance and opening it up!
Syllabus/slides on Github: github.com/arpitrage/ai...
Weekly summaries on Substack
arpitrage.substack.com/p/1-three-ru...
First post is on Amdahl's Law, Jevons' Paradox, and why finance was slow to learn the bitter lesson
Syllabus/slides on Github: github.com/arpitrage/ai...
Weekly summaries on Substack
arpitrage.substack.com/p/1-three-ru...
First post is on Amdahl's Law, Jevons' Paradox, and why finance was slow to learn the bitter lesson
Reposted by Arpit Gupta
This one's for you @arpitrage.bsky.social
A vast array of data suggests that school, not social media, is the biggest modern threat to the mental health of children. If you were recently a child, that won’t be a surprise. If not: enjoy the post :)
open.substack.com/pub/unpublis...
open.substack.com/pub/unpublis...
School is Way Worse For Kids Than Social Media
On building a world that doesn’t make children want to die
open.substack.com
January 29, 2026 at 3:05 PM
This one's for you @arpitrage.bsky.social
Good: public officials are often underpaid, but there should be a reasonable process for processing raises
Some Friday night news: Mayor Zohran Mamdani & Council Speaker Julie Menin announce they're convening a quadrennial commission, the first step in potentially enacting pay raises for NYC elected officials.
The last Council tried to push through raises without a commission study.
The last Council tried to push through raises without a commission study.
January 23, 2026 at 11:38 PM
Good: public officials are often underpaid, but there should be a reasonable process for processing raises
In the UK, Australia, and India: do you think they tell promising but not yet there junior academics who need higher impact papers “Go on, hit a six paper”
January 18, 2026 at 5:38 PM
In the UK, Australia, and India: do you think they tell promising but not yet there junior academics who need higher impact papers “Go on, hit a six paper”
Economists should start doing economics
Physicists stop trying to do economics
January 15, 2026 at 2:04 PM
Economists should start doing economics
Reposted by Arpit Gupta
this is consistent w what I’ve been observing in my and friends’ careers post-pandemic; if you want to continue working remotely, it is unintuitively *more stable* to favor startups (doesn’t have to be super-early-stage! love a series B company myself) than try to hang on someplace that wants RTO.
There’s a paradox around remote work. Jamie Dimon says it will kill productivity, while startups are hiring for remote roles. Who is right?
With Abhinav Gupta and Elena Simintzi we try to resolve this dispute
Paper: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Substack: arpitrage.substack.com/p/remote-wor...
With Abhinav Gupta and Elena Simintzi we try to resolve this dispute
Paper: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Substack: arpitrage.substack.com/p/remote-wor...
January 14, 2026 at 4:16 PM
this is consistent w what I’ve been observing in my and friends’ careers post-pandemic; if you want to continue working remotely, it is unintuitively *more stable* to favor startups (doesn’t have to be super-early-stage! love a series B company myself) than try to hang on someplace that wants RTO.
Reposted by Arpit Gupta
Interesting study here showing that availability of remote work helps startups get top employees from big companies, helping recruiting at startups but hurting retention at big companies. Unclear if return-to-office (RTO) polices help or make things worse for big companies (my guess, worse).
Why?
Hiring constraints. Startups once found it hard to compete with established incumbent firms with many offices
Remote startups increase job postings, hire more per posting, and scale faster. Remote large firms struggle with retention challenges of existing employees
Hiring constraints. Startups once found it hard to compete with established incumbent firms with many offices
Remote startups increase job postings, hire more per posting, and scale faster. Remote large firms struggle with retention challenges of existing employees
January 14, 2026 at 9:35 PM
Interesting study here showing that availability of remote work helps startups get top employees from big companies, helping recruiting at startups but hurting retention at big companies. Unclear if return-to-office (RTO) polices help or make things worse for big companies (my guess, worse).
Reposted by Arpit Gupta
1/ When I worked at AWS during the pandemic, internally, we were told remote work was here to stay, Amazon was now a remote work first company, and they were seeing huge productivity gains. This was all in support of the "Earth’s Best Employer" leadership value.
Then RTO hit out of no where 🧵
Then RTO hit out of no where 🧵
There’s a paradox around remote work. Jamie Dimon says it will kill productivity, while startups are hiring for remote roles. Who is right?
With Abhinav Gupta and Elena Simintzi we try to resolve this dispute
Paper: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Substack: arpitrage.substack.com/p/remote-wor...
With Abhinav Gupta and Elena Simintzi we try to resolve this dispute
Paper: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Substack: arpitrage.substack.com/p/remote-wor...
January 14, 2026 at 5:38 PM
1/ When I worked at AWS during the pandemic, internally, we were told remote work was here to stay, Amazon was now a remote work first company, and they were seeing huge productivity gains. This was all in support of the "Earth’s Best Employer" leadership value.
Then RTO hit out of no where 🧵
Then RTO hit out of no where 🧵
Reposted by Arpit Gupta
👀 Super-interesting paper on remote work, productivity from Arpit and co-authors.
Also has some important lessons for big cities and smaller places👇
Also has some important lessons for big cities and smaller places👇
There’s a paradox around remote work. Jamie Dimon says it will kill productivity, while startups are hiring for remote roles. Who is right?
With Abhinav Gupta and Elena Simintzi we try to resolve this dispute
Paper: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Substack: arpitrage.substack.com/p/remote-wor...
With Abhinav Gupta and Elena Simintzi we try to resolve this dispute
Paper: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Substack: arpitrage.substack.com/p/remote-wor...
January 14, 2026 at 3:39 PM
👀 Super-interesting paper on remote work, productivity from Arpit and co-authors.
Also has some important lessons for big cities and smaller places👇
Also has some important lessons for big cities and smaller places👇
Reposted by Arpit Gupta
There’s a paradox around remote work. Jamie Dimon says it will kill productivity, while startups are hiring for remote roles. Who is right?
With Abhinav Gupta and Elena Simintzi we try to resolve this dispute
Paper: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Substack: arpitrage.substack.com/p/remote-wor...
With Abhinav Gupta and Elena Simintzi we try to resolve this dispute
Paper: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Substack: arpitrage.substack.com/p/remote-wor...
January 14, 2026 at 2:40 PM
There’s a paradox around remote work. Jamie Dimon says it will kill productivity, while startups are hiring for remote roles. Who is right?
With Abhinav Gupta and Elena Simintzi we try to resolve this dispute
Paper: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Substack: arpitrage.substack.com/p/remote-wor...
With Abhinav Gupta and Elena Simintzi we try to resolve this dispute
Paper: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Substack: arpitrage.substack.com/p/remote-wor...
Excited to get a one seat ride from NYU Stern to Columbia Business School (Canal - 125/Broadway).
January 13, 2026 at 8:19 PM
Excited to get a one seat ride from NYU Stern to Columbia Business School (Canal - 125/Broadway).
Everyone update the broader impacts of their Anglo cost overrrun project with “has implications for Fed independence”
January 13, 2026 at 2:40 AM
Everyone update the broader impacts of their Anglo cost overrrun project with “has implications for Fed independence”
Some sort of falcon (?) over here in the urban jungle cc @hoffprof.bsky.social
January 4, 2026 at 4:23 PM
Some sort of falcon (?) over here in the urban jungle cc @hoffprof.bsky.social
Reposted by Arpit Gupta
Great post from @arpitrage.bsky.social I just came across.
December 29, 2025 at 1:43 AM
Great post from @arpitrage.bsky.social I just came across.
Reposted by Arpit Gupta
I like this post by @arpitrage.bsky.social as a starting point, there are also some more technical reports from the Tax Foundation on the 1986 depreciation changes just (just Google "1986 Tax Reform Act" and "housing") arpitrage.substack.com/p/unlock-a-h...
Unlock a Housing Boom through Depreciation Bonuses
How Financial Frictions are holding back Housing and Taxes can Help
arpitrage.substack.com
December 28, 2025 at 10:01 PM
I like this post by @arpitrage.bsky.social as a starting point, there are also some more technical reports from the Tax Foundation on the 1986 depreciation changes just (just Google "1986 Tax Reform Act" and "housing") arpitrage.substack.com/p/unlock-a-h...
Three new corridors announced for the Delhi metro
December 24, 2025 at 3:48 PM
Three new corridors announced for the Delhi metro
Reposted by Arpit Gupta
This is pretty cool, worth reading...
Can AI "learn" economic states, addressing the Lucas Critique?
With @aleximas.bsky.social we simulated data from an NK model, fit a transformer, + tested out of sample fit
It generalizes surprisingly well. We hope this stimulates discussion and future agendas
arpitrage.substack.com/p/can-a-tran...
With @aleximas.bsky.social we simulated data from an NK model, fit a transformer, + tested out of sample fit
It generalizes surprisingly well. We hope this stimulates discussion and future agendas
arpitrage.substack.com/p/can-a-tran...
Can a Transformer “Learn” Economic Relationships?
Revisiting the Lucas Critique in the Age of Transformers
arpitrage.substack.com
December 22, 2025 at 4:19 PM
This is pretty cool, worth reading...
Can AI "learn" economic states, addressing the Lucas Critique?
With @aleximas.bsky.social we simulated data from an NK model, fit a transformer, + tested out of sample fit
It generalizes surprisingly well. We hope this stimulates discussion and future agendas
arpitrage.substack.com/p/can-a-tran...
With @aleximas.bsky.social we simulated data from an NK model, fit a transformer, + tested out of sample fit
It generalizes surprisingly well. We hope this stimulates discussion and future agendas
arpitrage.substack.com/p/can-a-tran...
Can a Transformer “Learn” Economic Relationships?
Revisiting the Lucas Critique in the Age of Transformers
arpitrage.substack.com
December 22, 2025 at 4:05 PM
Can AI "learn" economic states, addressing the Lucas Critique?
With @aleximas.bsky.social we simulated data from an NK model, fit a transformer, + tested out of sample fit
It generalizes surprisingly well. We hope this stimulates discussion and future agendas
arpitrage.substack.com/p/can-a-tran...
With @aleximas.bsky.social we simulated data from an NK model, fit a transformer, + tested out of sample fit
It generalizes surprisingly well. We hope this stimulates discussion and future agendas
arpitrage.substack.com/p/can-a-tran...
Reposted by Arpit Gupta
A post I wrote a few months ago on what it means for urban policy that housing is largely homothetic (inspired by an @arpitrage.bsky.social tweet, which became the Substack preview of the post): gregshill.substack.com/p/mistaking-...
November 19, 2025 at 5:43 PM
A post I wrote a few months ago on what it means for urban policy that housing is largely homothetic (inspired by an @arpitrage.bsky.social tweet, which became the Substack preview of the post): gregshill.substack.com/p/mistaking-...
UPDATE: more road cutting up in the works
November 8, 2025 at 2:09 PM
UPDATE: more road cutting up in the works
Some scissor stairs in an NYC luxury rental built 1998
November 2, 2025 at 9:06 PM
Some scissor stairs in an NYC luxury rental built 1998