TheGF
stw.bsky.social
TheGF
@stw.bsky.social
Reposted by TheGF
Analysis of hypothetical RCV in 2020 Dem primary in this article is really interesting. Spoilers: Biden still wins, because more than half of Sanders supporters exhausted their ballots—they didn’t rank all of the candidates. If they had ranked Warren, she would have won in this poll.
Here's my monthly Q&A for Strength In Numbers readers. This time, I answer questions like:

- How do your polling average models work?
- What would ranked-choice voting in POTUS primaries look like?
- How do you isolate your priors from your data work?

www.gelliottmorris.com/p/what-if-am...
What if America used ranked-choice voting for presidential primaries?
Plus: an update on non-voters; the secret sauce behind my polling models; and updating my list of political biases and how I account for them. This is the Strength In Numbers November 2025 Q&A.
www.gelliottmorris.com
November 25, 2025 at 1:21 PM
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Daily snaps 11/24/25
youtu.be/bG9tD5qPasA
Daily snaps 11/24/25
YouTube video by The Golden Ratio
youtu.be
November 25, 2025 at 2:34 PM
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@darthbluesky.bsky.social I met this dog today! I saw her with her mom and was going to ask if I could say hi, but before I could, they approached me, and her mom asked, “Can my dog say hi to you?”
November 25, 2025 at 4:34 AM
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November 25, 2025 at 12:20 AM
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Tyson is closing a Nebraska plant that employs 3,200 workers in order to “right-size” its business.

The meatpacking giant paid its CEO $22.7M last year, 525x its median employee's pay.

It also spent $196M in stock buybacks to reward shareholders.

Textbook corporate greed.
November 24, 2025 at 8:30 PM
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Today, after months of requests, I toured the Broadview ICE Processing Facility. I want to share what I saw.

The facility has no food vendor, no medical care, and detainees have to use toilets in the middle of shared cells. These are in no way suitable conditions to be holding anyone — period.
November 25, 2025 at 12:57 AM
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I love Christmas and normally I'd be getting so excited right about now, but this year I'm a little down because it's our first holiday since we lost Fergus. I'm hoping I can spread some cheer and regain a little spirit myself by raising some funds for our local shelter! givebutter.com/n5l31M
Molly's Holiday Fundraiser 2025
Make Winter Merry and Bright in Honor of Fergus
givebutter.com
November 25, 2025 at 2:09 AM
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Step into a world of love and licks with, Remi, located in Scottsville, KY.

Learn more: https://www.petfinder.com/dog/remi-76278126/ky/scottsville/loving-paws-of-the-south-ky592/
November 25, 2025 at 3:00 AM
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We found that 11 of Trump’s DOT appointees disclosed between $12 million and $52 million in stock holdings and other financial interests in airlines, railroads, oil and gas corporations, transportation technology firms and other related businesses.

By @jessecoburn.bsky.social
How Trump’s Transportation Department Is Loosening Safety Rules Meant to Protect the Public
ProPublica has identified dozens of instances in which the Trump administration’s DOT has moved to cut, soften or delay safety regulations for cars, trucks, planes, trains and even oil pipelines. Expe...
www.propublica.org
November 25, 2025 at 3:00 AM
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Industrialization in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula has some residents pushing for protection of the region’s dark skies.
In Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, Locals Fight for ‘The Right to Night’
Industrialization in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula has some residents pushing for protection of the region’s celestial splendor.
nyti.ms
November 25, 2025 at 3:00 AM
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🎶 Over the river and through the woods
I’m looking around for food
Everything sucks and costs twenty bucks,
Guess I’ll just slam some booze. 🎶
To Grandmother’s House We Go
Over the river and through the woods, To Grandmother’s house we go; At the airport on time, which is good cause the lines Are moving super slow. Ov...
buff.ly
November 25, 2025 at 3:00 AM
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Right now I'm adding nearly fifty new pieces of original art to the sale...more art from Thrizzle, Snake N Bacon, TMBG, etc.
November 24, 2025 at 8:36 PM
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47 years ago today, dozens of turkeys met their unfortunate demise in a Cincinnati parking lot.
November 24, 2025 at 8:59 PM
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Biden granted mercy to most everyone on federal death row before leaving office. Trump retaliated by putting them in some of the harshest conditions of longterm isolation that American prisons can impose.

Another must-read by @laurengill.bsky.social boltsmag.org/death-row-cl...
Death Row Prisoners Granted Clemency by Biden Brace for "Living Hell" Under Trump - Bolts
Trump officials are retaliating by imposing the harshest conditions in the entire federal prison system, including near total isolation.
boltsmag.org
November 24, 2025 at 9:10 PM
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ED is feeling enough pressure about the graduate vs. professional program distinction that they put out a press release (correctly) stating that nursing was never technically classified as professional. This probably won't gain much traction with the general public.
Myth vs. Fact: The Definition of Professional Degrees
President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act placed commonsense limits on federal student loans for graduate degrees. This fact sheet sets the record straight regarding the proposed treatment of nursi...
www.ed.gov
November 24, 2025 at 9:37 PM
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This is how we know that the list of professions anger is breaking through. A big issue, that at least one person foresaw, is that it's not enough to consider a historical list of professions. You have to consider the professions that we have, currently, in 2025.
ED is feeling enough pressure about the graduate vs. professional program distinction that they put out a press release (correctly) stating that nursing was never technically classified as professional. This probably won't gain much traction with the general public.
Myth vs. Fact: The Definition of Professional Degrees
President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act placed commonsense limits on federal student loans for graduate degrees. This fact sheet sets the record straight regarding the proposed treatment of nursi...
www.ed.gov
November 24, 2025 at 10:06 PM
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Uh…. Was this his Dirty Dancing interview reel? I’m calling it an official prequel
November 24, 2025 at 3:53 AM
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Our system hoards power at the top so the richest few can paternally decide what to dole out to the poorest many. People do not gain power by investing it in a very few people. They gain power by sharing it with the many. The more you divide up power, the more power you will gain.
November 24, 2025 at 2:31 PM
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Rest Easy, James Chambers (Jimmy Cliff) - July 30, 1944 – November 24, 2025.
November 24, 2025 at 12:36 PM
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The crisis of affordability is a crisis of debt. Public goods that should be public and reparative are so costly and expensive that we're going into debt for things that are free in other nations — education, health care, school lunch, expensive rents, even going into debt for our own incarceration.
November 24, 2025 at 2:04 PM
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This is not the way, and @cnygren.bsky.social and I lay out in detail why it isn’t in this essay here. static1.squarespace.com/static/55577...
November 24, 2025 at 1:16 PM
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👏🏾
November 24, 2025 at 1:24 PM
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if there's a reason to keep up the "tribunals for all involved" discourse one such reason it is to put in stark relief how far away some of the Dem politicking is from the mood on the ground
eric swalwell said on msnow that a major goal of a dem majority after the midterms would be for ice masks to come off and badges to come out, this is insufficient
November 24, 2025 at 3:30 AM
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It's what they did with trans youth. They centered the perspectives of certain doctors and parents rather than the youth at issue themselves. Then they do the "just asking questions" bit that launders terrible dehumanizing rhetoric and undermines their dignity and rights.
November 24, 2025 at 1:14 PM
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This is sociopathic behavior. Also, when you create a capitalist system in which profit is the highest value and therefore everything is acceptable if it makes money, then it's okay to seek war and the death of innocents if it lowers oil prices. Welcome to Iraq.
Bessent: "If something happens down in Venezuela, we could really see oil prices go down even more."
November 24, 2025 at 1:01 PM