Lars Erik Berntzen
@leberntzen.bsky.social
Associate Professor, Department of Government, University of Bergen 🇧🇻 | activism, norms, political violence
Reposted by Lars Erik Berntzen
Partisan voters can reward candidates who stick to the party line even on unpopular issues. Under uncertainty, voters infer that ideologically rigid candidates are also more likely to back the party's other, more popular positions academic.oup.com/sf/advance-a...
Why moderate voters choose extreme candidates: voter uncertainty as a driver of elite polarization
Abstract. Representative democracy depends on elected officials reflecting voters’ policy preferences. Yet, US elected officials are more ideologically ext
academic.oup.com
December 8, 2025 at 7:23 AM
Partisan voters can reward candidates who stick to the party line even on unpopular issues. Under uncertainty, voters infer that ideologically rigid candidates are also more likely to back the party's other, more popular positions academic.oup.com/sf/advance-a...
Reposted by Lars Erik Berntzen
A critique of our (w/ @bertous.bsky.social) paper “Instrumentally inclusive” has just been published.
Our response is under review (see below on process) but we feel obliged to share our draft for balance since the comment has been released without the response.
osf.io/rn6h3/files/...
Our response is under review (see below on process) but we feel obliged to share our draft for balance since the comment has been released without the response.
osf.io/rn6h3/files/...
November 29, 2025 at 3:13 PM
A critique of our (w/ @bertous.bsky.social) paper “Instrumentally inclusive” has just been published.
Our response is under review (see below on process) but we feel obliged to share our draft for balance since the comment has been released without the response.
osf.io/rn6h3/files/...
Our response is under review (see below on process) but we feel obliged to share our draft for balance since the comment has been released without the response.
osf.io/rn6h3/files/...
Reposted by Lars Erik Berntzen
New article by @rmuriaas.bsky.social and I: While seniority can benefit all parliamentarians and serve as a powerful resource, it does not confer power equally. Women face structural barriers to accessing seniority, and even when they attain it, their legitimacy and influence remains contested.
Staying Power: Unpacking Seniority as a Gendered Informal Institution in Parliament
Abstract. Political seniority—commonly understood as accumulated parliamentary tenure—is an underexamined informal institution that structures access to po
academic.oup.com
December 1, 2025 at 11:58 AM
New article by @rmuriaas.bsky.social and I: While seniority can benefit all parliamentarians and serve as a powerful resource, it does not confer power equally. Women face structural barriers to accessing seniority, and even when they attain it, their legitimacy and influence remains contested.
Reposted by Lars Erik Berntzen
My new article with @leberntzen.bsky.social out in @scandpolstud.bsky.social!
Can politicians calm conflict as effectively as they can inflame it?
Our experimental evidence from Norway suggests that they cannot.
🧵
Can politicians calm conflict as effectively as they can inflame it?
Our experimental evidence from Norway suggests that they cannot.
🧵
Asymmetric Influence: Politicians Can Fuel but Not Dampen Conflict
Research from the deeply polarized United States suggests that the impact of elite communication is asymmetrical: antagonistic messages often heighten divisions, while positive appeals fail to dampen...
doi.org
December 1, 2025 at 9:41 AM
My new article with @leberntzen.bsky.social out in @scandpolstud.bsky.social!
Can politicians calm conflict as effectively as they can inflame it?
Our experimental evidence from Norway suggests that they cannot.
🧵
Can politicians calm conflict as effectively as they can inflame it?
Our experimental evidence from Norway suggests that they cannot.
🧵
Reposted by Lars Erik Berntzen
„the importance of sample size stemmed from small effect sizes across studies (perhaps smaller than researchers may have anticipated), highlighting a tension between commonly used power calculi and determining what constitutes a “meaningful effect.“
Needed - larger samples, more realism about (the lack of) heterogeneous treatment effects:
-"less than a third of proposed hypotheses were supported... the largest predictor of positive exp. results was sample size"
-"moderation hypotheses were rarely significant"
academic.oup.com/poq/advance-...
-"less than a third of proposed hypotheses were supported... the largest predictor of positive exp. results was sample size"
-"moderation hypotheses were rarely significant"
academic.oup.com/poq/advance-...
An Audit of Social Science Survey Experiments
Abstract. Survey experiments have become a popular methodology for causal inference across the social sciences. We study the efficacy of survey experiment
academic.oup.com
November 30, 2025 at 3:57 PM
„the importance of sample size stemmed from small effect sizes across studies (perhaps smaller than researchers may have anticipated), highlighting a tension between commonly used power calculi and determining what constitutes a “meaningful effect.“
Reposted by Lars Erik Berntzen
Thrilled to share my new article in Political Psychology: “The psychology of political attitudinal volatility.” In it, I attempt to answer why do some people change their political views more than others? Open access at: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10....
@ispp-pops.bsky.social
@ispp-pops.bsky.social
November 25, 2025 at 3:07 PM
Thrilled to share my new article in Political Psychology: “The psychology of political attitudinal volatility.” In it, I attempt to answer why do some people change their political views more than others? Open access at: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10....
@ispp-pops.bsky.social
@ispp-pops.bsky.social
Do Americans judge acts of partisan political violence impartially? No. We show that Democrats and Republicans exhibit clear partisan bias: both see the same violent act as more justified when it targets the other party than when it targets their own side.
osf.io/preprints/so...
#polisky
osf.io/preprints/so...
#polisky
November 24, 2025 at 4:27 PM
Do Americans judge acts of partisan political violence impartially? No. We show that Democrats and Republicans exhibit clear partisan bias: both see the same violent act as more justified when it targets the other party than when it targets their own side.
osf.io/preprints/so...
#polisky
osf.io/preprints/so...
#polisky
New article with @draege.bsky.social out in Scandinavian Political Studies: “Asymmetric Influence: Politicians Can Fuel but Not Dampen Conflict.” We test whether politicians in one of the world’s least polarized democracies, Norway, can calm conflict as effectively as they can inflame it. #polisky
Asymmetric Influence: Politicians Can Fuel but Not Dampen Conflict
Research from the deeply polarized United States suggests that the impact of elite communication is asymmetrical: antagonistic messages often heighten divisions, while positive appeals fail to dampen...
dx.doi.org
November 24, 2025 at 7:42 AM
New article with @draege.bsky.social out in Scandinavian Political Studies: “Asymmetric Influence: Politicians Can Fuel but Not Dampen Conflict.” We test whether politicians in one of the world’s least polarized democracies, Norway, can calm conflict as effectively as they can inflame it. #polisky
Reposted by Lars Erik Berntzen
On average across traits, the three methods produced remarkably similar estimates of ~30%. Most (~85%) of this variance could already be estimated by common variant GWAS run on the same samples. Strikingly, classical twin estimates for these traits were ~2x higher!
November 21, 2025 at 10:34 PM
On average across traits, the three methods produced remarkably similar estimates of ~30%. Most (~85%) of this variance could already be estimated by common variant GWAS run on the same samples. Strikingly, classical twin estimates for these traits were ~2x higher!
Reposted by Lars Erik Berntzen
I wrote a little bit about the "missing heritability" question and several recent studies that have brought it to a close. A short 🧵
The missing heritability question is now (mostly) answered
Not with a bang but with a whimper
theinfinitesimal.substack.com
November 21, 2025 at 10:34 PM
I wrote a little bit about the "missing heritability" question and several recent studies that have brought it to a close. A short 🧵
Reposted by Lars Erik Berntzen
An important rule of politics is that all formal institutions—all laws, all procedural rules, all constitutions—are just informal institutions in disguise. The minute they are not actually backed by behavior of some kind, they cease to exist. Formalization only sets a higher bar for ignoring them.
November 17, 2025 at 7:46 PM
An important rule of politics is that all formal institutions—all laws, all procedural rules, all constitutions—are just informal institutions in disguise. The minute they are not actually backed by behavior of some kind, they cease to exist. Formalization only sets a higher bar for ignoring them.
Reposted by Lars Erik Berntzen
🚨 New paper with Maria Grasso on generational shifts in political values. Despite talk of rising age polarisation, we show that gaps in attitudes are stable or even narrowing. Economic attitudes move in cycles, while social values have become more liberal – mainly due to generational replacement.
Political Socialisation in the UK: Describing Generational Changes of Values - International Journal of Politics, Culture, and Society
A growing bulk of research examines intergenerational shifts in attitudes and the extent to which they are attributable to new cohorts of voters being socialised under different socioeconomic and cult...
link.springer.com
November 13, 2025 at 10:29 AM
🚨 New paper with Maria Grasso on generational shifts in political values. Despite talk of rising age polarisation, we show that gaps in attitudes are stable or even narrowing. Economic attitudes move in cycles, while social values have become more liberal – mainly due to generational replacement.
Reposted by Lars Erik Berntzen
New research explores why openness/intellect stands apart from other personality traits. It turns out this trait may be less universal across cultures and rarely targeted for change.
Read more in #PSPR: ow.ly/UGlJ50XqLqS
Read more in #PSPR: ow.ly/UGlJ50XqLqS
November 13, 2025 at 9:59 PM
New research explores why openness/intellect stands apart from other personality traits. It turns out this trait may be less universal across cultures and rarely targeted for change.
Read more in #PSPR: ow.ly/UGlJ50XqLqS
Read more in #PSPR: ow.ly/UGlJ50XqLqS
Reposted by Lars Erik Berntzen
Our @apsrjournal.bsky.social article is now in print! We develop a theory to explain why the public doesn't become more prosocial toward LGBTQ+ people after illegitimate anti-LGBTQ+ violence and provide causal, externally valid, evidence for the theory across 4 studies doi.org/10.1017/S000...
November 13, 2025 at 4:59 PM
Our @apsrjournal.bsky.social article is now in print! We develop a theory to explain why the public doesn't become more prosocial toward LGBTQ+ people after illegitimate anti-LGBTQ+ violence and provide causal, externally valid, evidence for the theory across 4 studies doi.org/10.1017/S000...
Reposted by Lars Erik Berntzen
Three preregistered experiments with prolific participants (N = 2,254) found no evidence for experimenter demand effects
osf.io/preprints/ps...
osf.io/preprints/ps...
November 12, 2025 at 1:20 PM
Three preregistered experiments with prolific participants (N = 2,254) found no evidence for experimenter demand effects
osf.io/preprints/ps...
osf.io/preprints/ps...
Reposted by Lars Erik Berntzen
Share widely with your students in Switzerland 🇨🇭thinking about a PhD @eui-eu.bsky.social
𝗢𝗻𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲 𝗘𝗨𝗜 𝗣𝗵𝗗 𝗣𝗿𝗲𝗽 𝗧𝗮𝗹𝗸 🇨🇭
21 Nov 2025 | 2:30pm CET
@alissasiara.bsky.social introduces the program & life at EUI, I share my experience, and we answer your questions.
👉 Register: www.eui.eu/events?id=58...
𝗢𝗻𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲 𝗘𝗨𝗜 𝗣𝗵𝗗 𝗣𝗿𝗲𝗽 𝗧𝗮𝗹𝗸 🇨🇭
21 Nov 2025 | 2:30pm CET
@alissasiara.bsky.social introduces the program & life at EUI, I share my experience, and we answer your questions.
👉 Register: www.eui.eu/events?id=58...
PhD Prep Talk: Switzerland
Meet an EUI Researcher and alumnus from your country!
www.eui.eu
November 5, 2025 at 12:14 PM
Share widely with your students in Switzerland 🇨🇭thinking about a PhD @eui-eu.bsky.social
𝗢𝗻𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲 𝗘𝗨𝗜 𝗣𝗵𝗗 𝗣𝗿𝗲𝗽 𝗧𝗮𝗹𝗸 🇨🇭
21 Nov 2025 | 2:30pm CET
@alissasiara.bsky.social introduces the program & life at EUI, I share my experience, and we answer your questions.
👉 Register: www.eui.eu/events?id=58...
𝗢𝗻𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲 𝗘𝗨𝗜 𝗣𝗵𝗗 𝗣𝗿𝗲𝗽 𝗧𝗮𝗹𝗸 🇨🇭
21 Nov 2025 | 2:30pm CET
@alissasiara.bsky.social introduces the program & life at EUI, I share my experience, and we answer your questions.
👉 Register: www.eui.eu/events?id=58...
Reposted by Lars Erik Berntzen
How common do you think something is? When asked to judge proportions, people's estimates can be drawn towards their prior expectations of what the 'typical' value is. The result can be an overestimate of low proportions, and an underestimate of high ones... link.springer.com/article/10.3...
November 5, 2025 at 11:28 AM
How common do you think something is? When asked to judge proportions, people's estimates can be drawn towards their prior expectations of what the 'typical' value is. The result can be an overestimate of low proportions, and an underestimate of high ones... link.springer.com/article/10.3...
Reposted by Lars Erik Berntzen
If you know anyone considering doing a PhD in political science or sociology, encourage them to apply to the EUI PhD program and join the institute's landmark 50th cohort of PhD researchers in the SPS Department! Applications from Central and Eastern Europe are particularly welcome!
🚨 Applications Now Open for the EUI PhD Programmes 2026-2027!
📊 Economics |⚖️ Law |📘 History | 🏛 Political and Social Sciences
Join the EUI's 50th PhD cohort!
Apply by 15 January 2026 (14:00 CET) for the academic journey of a lifetime! 👉: eui.eu/phd
#EUIPhD #PhDOpportunity
📊 Economics |⚖️ Law |📘 History | 🏛 Political and Social Sciences
Join the EUI's 50th PhD cohort!
Apply by 15 January 2026 (14:00 CET) for the academic journey of a lifetime! 👉: eui.eu/phd
#EUIPhD #PhDOpportunity
November 4, 2025 at 10:27 AM
If you know anyone considering doing a PhD in political science or sociology, encourage them to apply to the EUI PhD program and join the institute's landmark 50th cohort of PhD researchers in the SPS Department! Applications from Central and Eastern Europe are particularly welcome!
Reposted by Lars Erik Berntzen
New article on “The Relational Dynamics of Violence Escalation and Inhibition During Far-Right Protest Waves” by Joel Busher, Julia Ebner, Zsófia Hacsek, Gareth Harris and myself in the latest issue of “American Behavioral Scientist”:
The Relational Dynamics of Violence Escalation and Inhibition During Far-Right Protest Waves - Joel Busher, Julia Ebner, Zsófia Hacsek, Gareth Harris, Graham Macklin, 2025
This article examines how interactions between far-right protestors, counter-protestors and other actors, including the police, lead towards and away from viole...
journals.sagepub.com
November 2, 2025 at 7:17 AM
New article on “The Relational Dynamics of Violence Escalation and Inhibition During Far-Right Protest Waves” by Joel Busher, Julia Ebner, Zsófia Hacsek, Gareth Harris and myself in the latest issue of “American Behavioral Scientist”:
Reposted by Lars Erik Berntzen
Twitter/X is a story on its own:
🔴 While users have become more Republican
💥 POSTING has completely transformed: it has moved nearly ❗50 percentage points❗ from Democrat-dominated to slightly Republican-leaning.
🔴 While users have become more Republican
💥 POSTING has completely transformed: it has moved nearly ❗50 percentage points❗ from Democrat-dominated to slightly Republican-leaning.
October 30, 2025 at 8:09 AM
Twitter/X is a story on its own:
🔴 While users have become more Republican
💥 POSTING has completely transformed: it has moved nearly ❗50 percentage points❗ from Democrat-dominated to slightly Republican-leaning.
🔴 While users have become more Republican
💥 POSTING has completely transformed: it has moved nearly ❗50 percentage points❗ from Democrat-dominated to slightly Republican-leaning.
Reposted by Lars Erik Berntzen
Most young men in Britain, despite popular commentary, are *not* flocking to Reform UK.
Just under 1/3 women would vote for Reform
Just over 1/3 would vote for Reform.
We *cannot* reject the null of gender gap homogeneity across cohorts.
Just under 1/3 women would vote for Reform
Just over 1/3 would vote for Reform.
We *cannot* reject the null of gender gap homogeneity across cohorts.
October 30, 2025 at 9:42 AM
Most young men in Britain, despite popular commentary, are *not* flocking to Reform UK.
Just under 1/3 women would vote for Reform
Just over 1/3 would vote for Reform.
We *cannot* reject the null of gender gap homogeneity across cohorts.
Just under 1/3 women would vote for Reform
Just over 1/3 would vote for Reform.
We *cannot* reject the null of gender gap homogeneity across cohorts.
Reposted by Lars Erik Berntzen
Posting is correlated with affective polarization:
😡 The most partisan users — those who love their party and despise the other — are more likely to post about politics
🥊 The result? A loud angry minority dominates online politics, which itself can drive polarization (see doi.org/10.1073/pnas...)
😡 The most partisan users — those who love their party and despise the other — are more likely to post about politics
🥊 The result? A loud angry minority dominates online politics, which itself can drive polarization (see doi.org/10.1073/pnas...)
October 30, 2025 at 8:09 AM
Posting is correlated with affective polarization:
😡 The most partisan users — those who love their party and despise the other — are more likely to post about politics
🥊 The result? A loud angry minority dominates online politics, which itself can drive polarization (see doi.org/10.1073/pnas...)
😡 The most partisan users — those who love their party and despise the other — are more likely to post about politics
🥊 The result? A loud angry minority dominates online politics, which itself can drive polarization (see doi.org/10.1073/pnas...)
Reposted by Lars Erik Berntzen
🚨 🆕 analysis w/ @turnbulldugarte.com: most British young men reject the far right @ukandeu.bsky.social Despite media claims, 71% of young men & 75% of young women say they’d never vote Reform UK. The gender gap exists, but it’s steady across ages—not youth-driven.
🔗 ukandeu.ac.uk/most-british...
🔗 ukandeu.ac.uk/most-british...
Most British young men reject the far right - UK in a changing Europe
Emilia Belknap and Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte explain their analysis on the demographics of Reform UK voters in the UK. They argue that while the dominant narrative is that young men are the most likely ...
ukandeu.ac.uk
October 30, 2025 at 10:53 AM
🚨 🆕 analysis w/ @turnbulldugarte.com: most British young men reject the far right @ukandeu.bsky.social Despite media claims, 71% of young men & 75% of young women say they’d never vote Reform UK. The gender gap exists, but it’s steady across ages—not youth-driven.
🔗 ukandeu.ac.uk/most-british...
🔗 ukandeu.ac.uk/most-british...
Reposted by Lars Erik Berntzen
New chapter on affective polarization and support for political violence (open access): www.elgaronline.com/edcollchap-o...
August 11, 2025 at 1:59 PM
New chapter on affective polarization and support for political violence (open access): www.elgaronline.com/edcollchap-o...
Reposted by Lars Erik Berntzen
Main takeaways: (1) Affective polarization predicts higher support for political violence at extreme levels; (2) its main effect may be expanding opportunity structures for a small subset willing to act violently. US & Brazil show highest risk.
August 11, 2025 at 2:07 PM
Main takeaways: (1) Affective polarization predicts higher support for political violence at extreme levels; (2) its main effect may be expanding opportunity structures for a small subset willing to act violently. US & Brazil show highest risk.