Lars Erik Berntzen
@leberntzen.bsky.social
Associate Professor, Department of Government, University of Bergen | activism, norms, political violence
Reposted by Lars Erik Berntzen
Twitter/X is a story on its own:
🔴 While users have become more Republican
💥 POSTING has completely transformed: it has moved nearly ❗50 percentage points❗ from Democrat-dominated to slightly Republican-leaning.
🔴 While users have become more Republican
💥 POSTING has completely transformed: it has moved nearly ❗50 percentage points❗ from Democrat-dominated to slightly Republican-leaning.
October 30, 2025 at 8:09 AM
Twitter/X is a story on its own:
🔴 While users have become more Republican
💥 POSTING has completely transformed: it has moved nearly ❗50 percentage points❗ from Democrat-dominated to slightly Republican-leaning.
🔴 While users have become more Republican
💥 POSTING has completely transformed: it has moved nearly ❗50 percentage points❗ from Democrat-dominated to slightly Republican-leaning.
Reposted by Lars Erik Berntzen
Most young men in Britain, despite popular commentary, are *not* flocking to Reform UK.
Just under 1/3 women would vote for Reform
Just over 1/3 would vote for Reform.
We *cannot* reject the null of gender gap homogeneity across cohorts.
Just under 1/3 women would vote for Reform
Just over 1/3 would vote for Reform.
We *cannot* reject the null of gender gap homogeneity across cohorts.
October 30, 2025 at 9:42 AM
Most young men in Britain, despite popular commentary, are *not* flocking to Reform UK.
Just under 1/3 women would vote for Reform
Just over 1/3 would vote for Reform.
We *cannot* reject the null of gender gap homogeneity across cohorts.
Just under 1/3 women would vote for Reform
Just over 1/3 would vote for Reform.
We *cannot* reject the null of gender gap homogeneity across cohorts.
Reposted by Lars Erik Berntzen
Posting is correlated with affective polarization:
😡 The most partisan users — those who love their party and despise the other — are more likely to post about politics
🥊 The result? A loud angry minority dominates online politics, which itself can drive polarization (see doi.org/10.1073/pnas...)
😡 The most partisan users — those who love their party and despise the other — are more likely to post about politics
🥊 The result? A loud angry minority dominates online politics, which itself can drive polarization (see doi.org/10.1073/pnas...)
October 30, 2025 at 8:09 AM
Posting is correlated with affective polarization:
😡 The most partisan users — those who love their party and despise the other — are more likely to post about politics
🥊 The result? A loud angry minority dominates online politics, which itself can drive polarization (see doi.org/10.1073/pnas...)
😡 The most partisan users — those who love their party and despise the other — are more likely to post about politics
🥊 The result? A loud angry minority dominates online politics, which itself can drive polarization (see doi.org/10.1073/pnas...)
Reposted by Lars Erik Berntzen
Main takeaways: (1) Affective polarization predicts higher support for political violence at extreme levels; (2) its main effect may be expanding opportunity structures for a small subset willing to act violently. US & Brazil show highest risk.
August 11, 2025 at 2:07 PM
Main takeaways: (1) Affective polarization predicts higher support for political violence at extreme levels; (2) its main effect may be expanding opportunity structures for a small subset willing to act violently. US & Brazil show highest risk.
Agree this is an important question, and there's something to notion that misperceptions about others can drive extreme behavior incl violence ("preemptive" or otherwise). However, these numbers should be heavily qualified. Big lit on fact that humans bad at proportions: www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
Quirks of cognition explain why we dramatically overestimate the size of minority groups | PNAS
Americans dramatically overestimate the size of African American, Latino, Muslim,
Asian, Jewish, immigrant, and LGBTQ populations, leading to conce...
www.pnas.org
October 6, 2025 at 8:08 PM
Agree this is an important question, and there's something to notion that misperceptions about others can drive extreme behavior incl violence ("preemptive" or otherwise). However, these numbers should be heavily qualified. Big lit on fact that humans bad at proportions: www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
See also this post by @djnavarro.net blog.djnavarro.net/posts/2025-0...
Some notes on probability judgement – Notes from a data witch
For the love of fuck, literally nobody thinks that 20% of the population is transgender. Please stop sharing that ridiculous YouGov statistic
blog.djnavarro.net
September 28, 2025 at 7:51 AM
See also this post by @djnavarro.net blog.djnavarro.net/posts/2025-0...
I believe this kind of research has a direct bearing here, humans are generally bad at estimating shares but good at ranking (this is more common than that). Good reason to be wary of what this kind of data actually tells us: www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
PNAS
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), a peer reviewed journal of the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) - an authoritative source of high-impact, original research that broadly spans...
www.pnas.org
September 28, 2025 at 7:49 AM
I believe this kind of research has a direct bearing here, humans are generally bad at estimating shares but good at ranking (this is more common than that). Good reason to be wary of what this kind of data actually tells us: www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...