Klara Müller
@klaramueller.bsky.social
Political Scientist | PhD Candidate at the University of Mannheim | Interested in political behaviour, public opinion, quantitative methods and all things sports.
🌐 https://klara-mueller.com/
🌐 https://klara-mueller.com/
Pinned
Klara Müller
@klaramueller.bsky.social
· Jun 23
Survey Nonresponse After Elections: Investigating the Role of Winner-Loser Effects in Panel Attrition
Abstract. When and for whom do election outcomes drive survey nonresponse? This paper investigates whether belonging to the winners or losers of an electio
academic.oup.com
🚨 Excited to see my first solo-authored paper now published in IJPOR! 🚨
Do election outcomes affect participation in post-election surveys? And specifically, do election winners respond more than losers? The short answer: not really.
The slightly longer answer: 🧵👇
academic.oup.com/ijpor/articl...
Do election outcomes affect participation in post-election surveys? And specifically, do election winners respond more than losers? The short answer: not really.
The slightly longer answer: 🧵👇
academic.oup.com/ijpor/articl...
This leaves me fascinated and uneasy at the same time…🤯
In any case, new (?) survey challenges unlocked!
In any case, new (?) survey challenges unlocked!
AI presents a fundamental threat to our ability to use polls to assess public opinion. Bad actors who are able to infiltrate panels can flip close election polls for less than the cost of a Starbucks coffee. Models will also infer and confirm hypotheses in experiments. Current quality checks fail
November 19, 2025 at 10:23 AM
This leaves me fascinated and uneasy at the same time…🤯
In any case, new (?) survey challenges unlocked!
In any case, new (?) survey challenges unlocked!
Reposted by Klara Müller
For those who didn’t catch it:🚨 We’ve released 3 additional panel waves via @GESIS, bringing the total to 71 waves of survey data. Spanning Sep 2012–May 2024, the GIP dataset is fully accessible for researchers studying trends, attitudes, and social changes over more than a decade.
November 18, 2025 at 9:05 AM
For those who didn’t catch it:🚨 We’ve released 3 additional panel waves via @GESIS, bringing the total to 71 waves of survey data. Spanning Sep 2012–May 2024, the GIP dataset is fully accessible for researchers studying trends, attitudes, and social changes over more than a decade.
There's still time to register - looking forward to seeing you around!
Our autumn seminar series continues tomorrow at midday, with
@klaramueller.bsky.social presenting important insights into causal inference in political psychology research.
Register to attend: events.teams.microsoft.com/event/5edb84...
@klaramueller.bsky.social presenting important insights into causal inference in political psychology research.
Register to attend: events.teams.microsoft.com/event/5edb84...
October 23, 2025 at 7:18 AM
There's still time to register - looking forward to seeing you around!
Reposted by Klara Müller
After a great first session today, our @psapolpsychology.bsky.social autumn seminar series continues next week with what promises to be a fascinating talk by @klaramueller.bsky.social!
Sign up here: events.teams.microsoft.com/event/5edb84...
Sign up here: events.teams.microsoft.com/event/5edb84...
*PSA EVENT* #Political #Psychology Seminar Series - 'Do Events Change Minds or Samples? Identifying Compositional Bias in Event Focused Causal Inference', with Klara Müller @klaramueller.bsky.social. Organised by @psapolpsychology.bsky.social
📆 23 Oct, 12.00 - 13.00, online
➡️
📆 23 Oct, 12.00 - 13.00, online
➡️
Political Psychology - Do Events Change Minds or Samples? A Framework for Identifying Compositional Bias in Event Focused Causal Inference | The Political Studies Association (PSA)
‘Do Events Change Minds or Samples? A Framework for Identifying Compositional Bias in Event Focused Causal Inference’ with Klara Müller (Mannheim) 23 October – 12:00 to 13:00 From political…
buff.ly
October 16, 2025 at 1:01 PM
After a great first session today, our @psapolpsychology.bsky.social autumn seminar series continues next week with what promises to be a fascinating talk by @klaramueller.bsky.social!
Sign up here: events.teams.microsoft.com/event/5edb84...
Sign up here: events.teams.microsoft.com/event/5edb84...
Reposted by Klara Müller
Every academic career is built on rejection, but we don’t show it.
CVs list publications, grants & awards, not rejected manuscripts, unfunded proposals, or failures.
But those invisible rejections shape us more than our successes ever do.
👉 catherineeunicedevries.substack.com/p/fail-bette...
🧵
CVs list publications, grants & awards, not rejected manuscripts, unfunded proposals, or failures.
But those invisible rejections shape us more than our successes ever do.
👉 catherineeunicedevries.substack.com/p/fail-bette...
🧵
Fail Better: Why Your Rejections Will Shape You More Than Your Publications
The Art of Learning from Rejection
catherineeunicedevries.substack.com
October 14, 2025 at 8:52 AM
Every academic career is built on rejection, but we don’t show it.
CVs list publications, grants & awards, not rejected manuscripts, unfunded proposals, or failures.
But those invisible rejections shape us more than our successes ever do.
👉 catherineeunicedevries.substack.com/p/fail-bette...
🧵
CVs list publications, grants & awards, not rejected manuscripts, unfunded proposals, or failures.
But those invisible rejections shape us more than our successes ever do.
👉 catherineeunicedevries.substack.com/p/fail-bette...
🧵
Reposted by Klara Müller
My monthly reminder ☝️
October 13, 2025 at 12:16 PM
My monthly reminder ☝️
Reposted by Klara Müller
Excellent work from my SU colleague Einar Bäckström on the temporal dynamics of the winner loser gap in democracy satisfaction using a regression discontinuity in time design across 21 European countries.
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Sore losers on election night? Examining the temporal emergence of the winner–loser gap | European Journal of Political Research | Cambridge Core
Sore losers on election night? Examining the temporal emergence of the winner–loser gap
www.cambridge.org
October 3, 2025 at 2:04 PM
Excellent work from my SU colleague Einar Bäckström on the temporal dynamics of the winner loser gap in democracy satisfaction using a regression discontinuity in time design across 21 European countries.
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Reposted by Klara Müller
Very pleased to say my new article is out @polstudies.bsky.social ! In it I compare single individuals to those with partners with different past vote choices/party identifications and demonstrate that this is associated with an individual's own vote choice. doi.org/10.1177/0032...
Partner Effects and Gender Gaps in Vote Choice in the United Kingdom: Brexit and Subsequent Elections - Ceri Fowler, 2025
This article explores differences in voting behaviour between those that were single and those that had a Eurosceptic or Europhile partner at the United Kingdom...
doi.org
October 3, 2025 at 11:39 AM
Very pleased to say my new article is out @polstudies.bsky.social ! In it I compare single individuals to those with partners with different past vote choices/party identifications and demonstrate that this is associated with an individual's own vote choice. doi.org/10.1177/0032...
Honoured to be part of the @psapolpsychology.bsky.social seminar and to present some *still-steaming* findings. See you there (registration link below), looking forward to a great discussion!
And don't miss the other fascinating talks in the autumn seminar series! ➡️ www.psa.ac.uk/specialist-g...
And don't miss the other fascinating talks in the autumn seminar series! ➡️ www.psa.ac.uk/specialist-g...
Second, one week later on Thursday 23rd October at 12:00, @klaramueller.bsky.social will speak on major methodological developments in event-based causal inference in political psychology and behaviour research.
Register: events.teams.microsoft.com/event/5edb84...
Register: events.teams.microsoft.com/event/5edb84...
October 2, 2025 at 12:13 PM
Honoured to be part of the @psapolpsychology.bsky.social seminar and to present some *still-steaming* findings. See you there (registration link below), looking forward to a great discussion!
And don't miss the other fascinating talks in the autumn seminar series! ➡️ www.psa.ac.uk/specialist-g...
And don't miss the other fascinating talks in the autumn seminar series! ➡️ www.psa.ac.uk/specialist-g...
Reposted by Klara Müller
Following the success of our spring seminar series earlier this year, we @psapolpsychology.bsky.social are running an autumn/winter series, with four online presentations by great scholars.
Please do register and come along to hear about some really fascinating research!
Please do register and come along to hear about some really fascinating research!
This time in two weeks, we will launch our autumn/winter seminar series. We have an exciting line-up of four online talks covering a range of topics in political psychology.
All presentations are on Thursdays at 12:00 UK.
Sign up to attend here!: www.psa.ac.uk/specialist-g...
All presentations are on Thursdays at 12:00 UK.
Sign up to attend here!: www.psa.ac.uk/specialist-g...
Political Psychology | The Political Studies Association (PSA)
Political Psychology is a multi-disciplinary group established to provide a forum for collaboration, discussion and support for political psychology scholars and practitioners as well as to facilitate...
www.psa.ac.uk
October 2, 2025 at 11:10 AM
Following the success of our spring seminar series earlier this year, we @psapolpsychology.bsky.social are running an autumn/winter series, with four online presentations by great scholars.
Please do register and come along to hear about some really fascinating research!
Please do register and come along to hear about some really fascinating research!
Reposted by Klara Müller
Happy to publish today in the @ejprjournal.bsky.social
Pop culture (think Netflix's Sex Education) make us think that emerging cohorts are happy to socially incorporate partners with sexually modern backgrounds and experiences 🏳️🌈
But is this really the case?
doi.org/10.1017/S147...
Pop culture (think Netflix's Sex Education) make us think that emerging cohorts are happy to socially incorporate partners with sexually modern backgrounds and experiences 🏳️🌈
But is this really the case?
doi.org/10.1017/S147...
Allies on the streets but illiberal in the sheets? Gender and the public vs. private inclusion of sexual minorities | European Journal of Political Research | Cambridge Core
Allies on the streets but illiberal in the sheets? Gender and the public vs. private inclusion of sexual minorities
doi.org
October 1, 2025 at 9:05 AM
Happy to publish today in the @ejprjournal.bsky.social
Pop culture (think Netflix's Sex Education) make us think that emerging cohorts are happy to socially incorporate partners with sexually modern backgrounds and experiences 🏳️🌈
But is this really the case?
doi.org/10.1017/S147...
Pop culture (think Netflix's Sex Education) make us think that emerging cohorts are happy to socially incorporate partners with sexually modern backgrounds and experiences 🏳️🌈
But is this really the case?
doi.org/10.1017/S147...
Reposted by Klara Müller
📣 Attention, postdoctoral researchers!
❗ Apply now for our MZES Visiting Fellowships 😊
💡 Spend 2-4 weeks at the MZES to share ideas
💰 Funding for accommodation, travel, daily allowance
📆 Deadline: 28 November
Full information:
👉 www.mzes.uni-mannheim.de/en/news/deta...
❗ Apply now for our MZES Visiting Fellowships 😊
💡 Spend 2-4 weeks at the MZES to share ideas
💰 Funding for accommodation, travel, daily allowance
📆 Deadline: 28 November
Full information:
👉 www.mzes.uni-mannheim.de/en/news/deta...
September 22, 2025 at 9:29 AM
📣 Attention, postdoctoral researchers!
❗ Apply now for our MZES Visiting Fellowships 😊
💡 Spend 2-4 weeks at the MZES to share ideas
💰 Funding for accommodation, travel, daily allowance
📆 Deadline: 28 November
Full information:
👉 www.mzes.uni-mannheim.de/en/news/deta...
❗ Apply now for our MZES Visiting Fellowships 😊
💡 Spend 2-4 weeks at the MZES to share ideas
💰 Funding for accommodation, travel, daily allowance
📆 Deadline: 28 November
Full information:
👉 www.mzes.uni-mannheim.de/en/news/deta...
🚲🤝🏼🗳️
🚨 New working paper alert 🚨
Missing summer — and the Tour de France? Don’t worry, we got you covered. 🚴♂️🚴♂️🚴♂️
In this paper, we show that being on the route of Tour de France reduces far-right voting. osf.io/preprints/so...
Missing summer — and the Tour de France? Don’t worry, we got you covered. 🚴♂️🚴♂️🚴♂️
In this paper, we show that being on the route of Tour de France reduces far-right voting. osf.io/preprints/so...
September 16, 2025 at 11:18 AM
🚲🤝🏼🗳️
It's striking how engaging in democratic processes can, ironically, lead to democratic discontent when the results feel personally or politically unfavorable. Even in strong democracies!
Our article “Unsuccessful Candidates Are More Concerned About Electoral Fairness than Election Winners” is now online @thejop.bsky.social
Using RDD and elite survey data from Denmark, we show that losing candidates express greater concern about electoral fairness.
🔗 doi.org/10.1086/734240
Using RDD and elite survey data from Denmark, we show that losing candidates express greater concern about electoral fairness.
🔗 doi.org/10.1086/734240
September 12, 2025 at 9:29 AM
It's striking how engaging in democratic processes can, ironically, lead to democratic discontent when the results feel personally or politically unfavorable. Even in strong democracies!
This deviation is certainly striking (and, given the known influence of polling on political behavior, also somehwat concerning). Spilling the tea on @aleferna.bsky.social's and my research into CIS’ house effects and their shifts over time: this discrepancy is systematic, not just a one-off.
Ever struggle to explain why your research is relevant? Sometimes the data just does it for you! 👇
Has anyone seen a more dramatic poll discrepancy than this one from Spain nationwide polling? CIS has PSOE +9.0pp, while NCReport has PP +9.4pp *over the exact same fieldwork*! 🤯😅
Has anyone seen a more dramatic poll discrepancy than this one from Spain nationwide polling? CIS has PSOE +9.0pp, while NCReport has PP +9.4pp *over the exact same fieldwork*! 🤯😅
September 11, 2025 at 12:06 PM
This deviation is certainly striking (and, given the known influence of polling on political behavior, also somehwat concerning). Spilling the tea on @aleferna.bsky.social's and my research into CIS’ house effects and their shifts over time: this discrepancy is systematic, not just a one-off.
Reposted by Klara Müller
The University of Cologne plans drastic cuts to its Political Science department, potentially abolishing the MSc in Political Science and eliminating the professorships in IR and Comparative Politics. This would severely weaken the social sciences at @unicologne.bsky.social.
Petition (de/en) ⤵️
Petition (de/en) ⤵️
Petition unterschreiben
Keine WiSo ohne PoWi! Für eine starke Politikwissenschaft im Bachelor & Master
https://www.change.org/p/keine-wiso-ohne-powi-für-eine-starke-politikwissenschaft-im-bachelor-master
September 8, 2025 at 1:06 PM
The University of Cologne plans drastic cuts to its Political Science department, potentially abolishing the MSc in Political Science and eliminating the professorships in IR and Comparative Politics. This would severely weaken the social sciences at @unicologne.bsky.social.
Petition (de/en) ⤵️
Petition (de/en) ⤵️
Full circle moment ⭕:
@psaepop.bsky.social was the first ever conference I presented at, and now I'm thrilled to wrap up my PhD conference cycle at #EPOP2025 in Exeter. Enthusiatic to present joint work with @aleferna.bsky.social and to be part of this promising panel. Curious to hear your thoughts!
@psaepop.bsky.social was the first ever conference I presented at, and now I'm thrilled to wrap up my PhD conference cycle at #EPOP2025 in Exeter. Enthusiatic to present joint work with @aleferna.bsky.social and to be part of this promising panel. Curious to hear your thoughts!
September 4, 2025 at 12:08 PM
Full circle moment ⭕:
@psaepop.bsky.social was the first ever conference I presented at, and now I'm thrilled to wrap up my PhD conference cycle at #EPOP2025 in Exeter. Enthusiatic to present joint work with @aleferna.bsky.social and to be part of this promising panel. Curious to hear your thoughts!
@psaepop.bsky.social was the first ever conference I presented at, and now I'm thrilled to wrap up my PhD conference cycle at #EPOP2025 in Exeter. Enthusiatic to present joint work with @aleferna.bsky.social and to be part of this promising panel. Curious to hear your thoughts!
Join us tomorrow, we’re super curious about your feedback! 🙌🏻
Back in Exeter for the first time since my first PhD visiting stay! I'm thrilled to be presenting joint research on election polling with @klaramueller.bsky.social at the @psaepop.bsky.social Conference tomorrow. So looking forward to this panel full of great scholars
September 4, 2025 at 11:54 AM
Join us tomorrow, we’re super curious about your feedback! 🙌🏻
Reposted by Klara Müller
Interesting paper on non-response bias, and the role of the response propensity distribution onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
Non‐Response Insights With Binary Variables
Non-response brings into question the critical ability of probability surveys to make unbiased estimates of population parameters and to estimate the reliability of these estimates. This article cons...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
August 29, 2025 at 9:19 AM
Interesting paper on non-response bias, and the role of the response propensity distribution onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
Reposted by Klara Müller
#Call #GESISPanel
Collect Your Own Linked #WebTracking and #SurveyData with the GESIS Panel.dbd Digital Behavioral Data Sample
Panelists participate in repeated surveys and digital behavioral data collections such as web tracking, where participants' web browsing behavior is recorded.
Collect Your Own Linked #WebTracking and #SurveyData with the GESIS Panel.dbd Digital Behavioral Data Sample
Panelists participate in repeated surveys and digital behavioral data collections such as web tracking, where participants' web browsing behavior is recorded.
August 26, 2025 at 12:00 PM
#Call #GESISPanel
Collect Your Own Linked #WebTracking and #SurveyData with the GESIS Panel.dbd Digital Behavioral Data Sample
Panelists participate in repeated surveys and digital behavioral data collections such as web tracking, where participants' web browsing behavior is recorded.
Collect Your Own Linked #WebTracking and #SurveyData with the GESIS Panel.dbd Digital Behavioral Data Sample
Panelists participate in repeated surveys and digital behavioral data collections such as web tracking, where participants' web browsing behavior is recorded.
Reposted by Klara Müller
EPSA have announced that they will hold a conference in July 2026.
😵💫 We understand that there might be some confusion about EPSS and EPSA.
👉🏽 So we thought we would clarify some things.
A short 🧵
😵💫 We understand that there might be some confusion about EPSS and EPSA.
👉🏽 So we thought we would clarify some things.
A short 🧵
August 7, 2025 at 4:28 PM
EPSA have announced that they will hold a conference in July 2026.
😵💫 We understand that there might be some confusion about EPSS and EPSA.
👉🏽 So we thought we would clarify some things.
A short 🧵
😵💫 We understand that there might be some confusion about EPSS and EPSA.
👉🏽 So we thought we would clarify some things.
A short 🧵
Reposted by Klara Müller
Just out at @polbehavior.bsky.social w/Carey Stapleton:
Voting by mail has the upside of boosting correct voting.
When people vote by mail rather than in-person, they are more likely to choose the presidential candidate best aligned with their preferences.
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
Voting by mail has the upside of boosting correct voting.
When people vote by mail rather than in-person, they are more likely to choose the presidential candidate best aligned with their preferences.
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
The Effects of Voting by Mail on Correct Voting - Political Behavior
The share of Americans voting by mail surged in 2020. For those casting a mail-in ballot, their voting experience was different from those who voted in-person. When voting by mail, people can make the...
link.springer.com
August 6, 2025 at 2:53 PM
Just out at @polbehavior.bsky.social w/Carey Stapleton:
Voting by mail has the upside of boosting correct voting.
When people vote by mail rather than in-person, they are more likely to choose the presidential candidate best aligned with their preferences.
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
Voting by mail has the upside of boosting correct voting.
When people vote by mail rather than in-person, they are more likely to choose the presidential candidate best aligned with their preferences.
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
Reposted by Klara Müller
I have a new article out at @polstudies.bsky.social. In "Electoral Hope", I make the case that supposedly irrational "wishful thinking" is actually a crucial part of how voters make rational sense of their role in democracies.
OA link: doi.org/10.1177/0032...
OA link: doi.org/10.1177/0032...
August 6, 2025 at 1:08 PM
I have a new article out at @polstudies.bsky.social. In "Electoral Hope", I make the case that supposedly irrational "wishful thinking" is actually a crucial part of how voters make rational sense of their role in democracies.
OA link: doi.org/10.1177/0032...
OA link: doi.org/10.1177/0032...
Striking to see just *how* much the impact of losing an election increases with populist attitudes. This is a great demonstration of how populist voters may perceive election results as a test of democratic legitimacy rather than 'only' an outcome of electoral competition. Really interesting paper!
I'm delighted to see this article out in @govandopp.bsky.social! Jonas Wenker and I show that losing an election has a far stronger negative effect on populist voters than on non-populist ones. For populists, losing signals that the system is broken. 1/5 www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Losers’ Dissent: How Election Results Shape Populists’ Satisfaction with Democracy | Government and Opposition | Cambridge Core
Losers’ Dissent: How Election Results Shape Populists’ Satisfaction with Democracy
www.cambridge.org
August 5, 2025 at 8:48 AM
Striking to see just *how* much the impact of losing an election increases with populist attitudes. This is a great demonstration of how populist voters may perceive election results as a test of democratic legitimacy rather than 'only' an outcome of electoral competition. Really interesting paper!
Reposted by Klara Müller
New WP w/ @riazsascha.bsky.social: via >42 million placebo tests, we show type I error inflation in Unexpected Event during Survey Designs (UESD), propose an adjustment, implement via new R package uesdRobust, and demonstrate utility by replicating two top UESD studies.
osf.io/preprints/os...
1/9
osf.io/preprints/os...
1/9
July 1, 2025 at 2:44 PM
New WP w/ @riazsascha.bsky.social: via >42 million placebo tests, we show type I error inflation in Unexpected Event during Survey Designs (UESD), propose an adjustment, implement via new R package uesdRobust, and demonstrate utility by replicating two top UESD studies.
osf.io/preprints/os...
1/9
osf.io/preprints/os...
1/9