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stefanmueller.bsky.social
Stefan Müller
@stefanmueller.bsky.social
3.9K followers 1.5K following 240 posts

Associate Professor @ucddublin.bsky.social • party competition, public opinion, political communication, computational social science • Maintainer @irishpollingind.bsky.social • Executive Committee Member @yai.ie
muellerstefan.net .. more

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Environmental science 18%
Communication & Media Studies 16%
Posts Replies Media Videos

Reposted by Simon Hix, Stefan Müller, Maarten Vink , and 9 more

chriswratil.bsky.social
Christopher Wratil 🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine @chriswratil.bsky.social · 1d
🚨 Job Alert! Postdoc in POLITICAL TEXT ANALYSIS in the MULTIREP project

You do quant text analysis? You are interested in political representation? Enjoy working in teams? Would like to live in a great city? Consider joining us in Vienna!

⏱️ Apply by 15/12/2025

wratil.eu/files/MULTIR...

1/4 🧵

Reposted by Stefan Müller

kenbenoit.bsky.social
Ken Benoit @kenbenoit.bsky.social · 5d
#EPSS2026 currently at over 1,100 submissions and climbing, report the conference committee chairs. Submissions close tomorrow. Don't forget to submit!
app.oxfordabstracts.com/stages/79266...

All your questions answered here:
epssnet.org/conferences/...

@epssnet.bsky.social
Oxford Abstracts
app.oxfordabstracts.com

Reposted by Stefan Müller

ucdresearch.bsky.social
UCD Research @ucdresearch.bsky.social · 6d
Advanced UCD Research in Artificial Intelligence (AURA), our single biggest investment in #AI #supercomputing!

@ucddublin.bsky.social also invested €1.45m to upgrade existing campus-wide HPC stack, supporting Ireland's largest concentration of AI researchers
www.siliconrepublic.com/innovation/u...
UCD buys €724,000 Nvidia supercomputer for AI-led research boost
University College Dublin's new Nvidia supercomputer has 50 times the performance capacity compared to the existing cluster at the university.
www.siliconrepublic.com

Reposted by David M. Farrell, Stefan Müller, Jo Shaw

ucdpolitics.bsky.social
UCD Politics and International Relations @ucdpolitics.bsky.social · 8d
Applications are now open for the UCD Iseult Honohan Doctoral Scholarship 2026.

Closing Date: 30 January 2026

✔️Covers full fees (EU and Non-EU)
✔️Provides a living stipend of €25,000 per year for up to four years
✔️Is open to EU and non-EU applicants

👇
www.ucd.ie/spire/study/...

Reposted by Will Jennings, Ruth Dassonneville, Stefan Müller , and 11 more

sarahobolt.bsky.social
Sara Hobolt @sarahobolt.bsky.social · 11d
🚨 EPSS Belfast 2026 Call for Papers - One week to go! 🚨

Don't forget to submit your paper or panel proposal to the European Political Science Society @epssnet.bsky.social 2026 conference - just one week to go before the deadline: epssnet.org/belfast-2026...
Call for Papers | EPSS Belfast 2026 Conference
Submit your abstract or full paper for EPSS Belfast 2026. Share cutting‑edge political science research, network with peers & contribute to academic impact.
epssnet.org

Reposted by Edgar Morgenroth

stefanmueller.bsky.social
Stefan Müller @stefanmueller.bsky.social · 13d
Really important and insightful analysis of the voters who spoiled their ballots in the presidential election.

@kevcunningham.bsky.social also classifies open-ended survey responses to better understand the underlying reasons and motivations.

➡️ open.substack.com/pub/kevcunni...
Respondents were asked ‘Why’ they voted the way they did in an open-ended text box. These are the responses classified into groups. Open-ended survey responses – proportional sample of statements % of each voter type that spoiled their ballot as opposed to those who voted at the 2025 Irish Presidential election. % who spoiled their vote broken down by age, gender and self-reported social class.

Reposted by David M. Farrell, Stefan Müller, Chris Hanretty , and 1 more

kevcunningham.bsky.social
Kevin Cunningham @kevcunningham.bsky.social · 14d
I've completed an analysis of the spoiled voter in the link below. This is a voter who will invariably come into play in the future.

kevcunningham.substack.com/p/who-are-th...
Who are the people who spoiled their ballot and why?
An initial analysis
kevcunningham.substack.com

Reposted by Stefan Müller, Tom Louwerse

peilingwijzer.bsky.social
Peilingwijzer @peilingwijzer.bsky.social · 14d
The Peilingwijzer poll of polls for the Netherlands has been updated to include the latest polls of Verian/EenVandaag and Ipsos I&O.

📊 📈 All graphs & figures: https://peilingwijzer.tomlouwerse.nl/
Graph with most recent scores of Peilingwijzer poll of poll (Netherlands)

Reposted by Stefan Müller, Ben Tonra

alexdukalskis.bsky.social
Alex Dukalskis @alexdukalskis.bsky.social · 15d
If you’re in New York join me & @cooleyoneurasia.bsky.social at @columbiauniversity.bsky.social as we talk w/ @adamtooze.bsky.social about our new book Dictating the Agenda: The Authoritarian Resurgence in World Politics

Register here:

harriman.columbia.edu/event/book-l...
Book Launch. "Dictating the Agenda"
Please join the Harriman Institute and the Committee on Global Thought for a book launch of "Dictating the Agenda" by Alexander Cooley and Alexander Dukalskis. Moderated by Adam Tooze.
harriman.columbia.edu

Reposted by David M. Farrell, Stefan Müller

theresareidy.bsky.social
Theresa Reidy @theresareidy.bsky.social · 15d
Writing about what the presidential vote means in Irish Examiner today. Green shoots for the left, bad news for the government and warning signs from a potentially undemocratic far-right.

www.irishexaminer.com/opinion/comm...
Theresa Reidy: Catherine Connolly's victory has lessons for the Government, the left, and future candidates
The election result sends a sharp warning note to the Government
www.irishexaminer.com

Reposted by Stefan Müller

rtetwip.bsky.social
The Week in Politics @rtetwip.bsky.social · 16d
Politics lecturer at TU Dublin, @kevcunningham.bsky.social , reflects on the 'three major events' in the presidential campaign that culminated in @catherinegalway's eventual victory.

#RTETWIP will repeat at 23:10 tonight on @rteone.rte.ie

Reposted by Stefan Müller

irishpollingind.bsky.social
Irish Polling Indicator @irishpollingind.bsky.social · 16d
Updated aggregated estimates:

Sinn Féin: 24% (22.5–25.5)
Fine Gael: 19.5% (18–20.5)
Fianna Fáil: 19% (18–20)
Ind/Oth: 13.5% (12–15)
Soc Dems: 7.5% (6.5–8.5)
Lab: 4.5% (4–5.5)
Aontú: 4% (3–5)
II: 3.5% (3–4.5)
SPBP: 2.5% (2–3)
GP: 2.5% (2–2.5)

➡️ pollingindicator.com
Sinn Féin: 24% (22.5–25.5) Fine Gael: 19.5% (18–20.5) Fianna Fáil: 19% (18–20) Ind/Oth: 13.5% (12–15) Soc Dems: 7.5% (6.5–8.5) Lab: 4.5% (4–5.5) Aontú: 4% (3–5) II: 3.5% (3–4.5) SPBP: 2.5% (2–3) GP: 2.5% (2–2.5) https://pollingindicator.com House Effects

Reposted by Stefan Müller

rtetwip.bsky.social
The Week in Politics @rtetwip.bsky.social · 16d
Also on today's #RTETWIP at noon, post #PresidentialElection analysis will also be provided by TU Dublin Politics Lecturer, @kevcunningham.bsky.social and RTE Political Correspondent
@fertha.bsky.social.

Tune in on @rteone.rte.ie and catch the repeat at 23:10

Reposted by Stefan Müller

spiegel.de
DER SPIEGEL @spiegel.de · 16d
Irland: Catherine Connolly gewinnt Präsidentschaftswahl deutlich: Die von einem Linksbündnis unterstützte Kandidatin Catherine Connolly hat die Präsidentschaftswahl in Irland gewonnen. Die einzige Mitbewerberin gratulierte schon am Nachmittag. Und doch gibt es für Connolly nicht nur Grund zum…
Irland: Catherine Connolly gewinnt Präsidentschaftswahl deutlich
Die von einem Linksbündnis unterstützte Kandidatin Catherine Connolly hat die Präsidentschaftswahl in Irland gewonnen. Die einzige Mitbewerberin gratulierte schon am Nachmittag. Und doch gibt es für Connolly nicht nur Grund zum Feiern.
www.spiegel.de

Reposted by Stefan Müller, Stephen Ryan, Nicolai von Ondarza , and 1 more

gavreilly.com
Gavan Reilly @gavreilly.com · 17d
🚨 Aggregate of national #aras25 tallies
(albeit only partial in some constituencies):

Catherine Connolly 63%
Heather Humphreys 30%
Jim Gavin 7%

Roughly 13% of votes nationwide are spoiled/invalid

@virginmedianews.bsky.social

Reposted by Ben Tonra

stefanmueller.bsky.social
Stefan Müller @stefanmueller.bsky.social · 17d
Reasons for vote choice according to the Ireland Thinks polling day poll ⤵️
#Aras25
analysis.irelandthinks.ie/polling-day-...
@kevcunningham.bsky.social
Which of the following was most important in making your choice? (Select up to 2) Connolly voters relied on Integrity & Honesty, Competence and Communication skills. Humphreys voters more likely to focus on how the candidate represented Ireland internationally.

stefanmueller.bsky.social
Stefan Müller @stefanmueller.bsky.social · 17d
📊 @kevcunningham.bsky.social is publishing findings from the Ireland Thinks polling day poll at analysis.irelandthinks.ie
Question: Thinking about your number 1, first- preference vote, was that choice mainly FOR your chosen candidate, OR mainly AGAINST another candidate, or both about equally? Question: If elected, do you feel like Catherine Connolly would be similar to Michael D. Higgins as president?

Reposted by Stefan Müller

gavreilly.com
Gavan Reilly @gavreilly.com · 17d
Called it at 9:13, which is a new record I think. Connolly by 60%+. Spoiled votes may outpoll Heather Humphreys.

Reposted by Stefan Müller, Nicolai von Ondarza

newschambers.bsky.social
Richard Chambers @newschambers.bsky.social · 17d
It’s all long over and done with in the first 25 minutes of counting.

A very comprehensive win for Catherine Connolly on the cards.

Questions now are quite how big the margin, the time of the count and how high the number of spoiled votes turns out to be.

#Aras25

Reposted by Stefan Müller

gavreilly.com
Gavan Reilly @gavreilly.com · 17d
🗳️ #aras25 Count Results live, from as soon as each of the 43 constituencies start to report their results: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Presidential Election 2025 (#aras25) - live results by @gavreilly
docs.google.com

Reposted by Stefan Müller, Ben Tonra

nvondarza.bsky.social
Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 18d
Really well done explainer of the election system for the Irish Presidential elections using... smarties. Bonus points for showing why Irish election counting takes so long:
gavreilly.com Gavan Reilly @gavreilly.com · 20d
Are you a little confused about how Ireland’s Presidential Election works?

Fear not: I have once again picked up some 🔴 popular 🟠 coloured 🟡 chocolate-based 🟢 confectionary 🔵 treats 🟣 to show how the #aras25 votes are counted.

@virginmedianews.bsky.social

Reposted by Cas Mudde, David M. Farrell, Steven Van de Walle , and 25 more

simonhix.bsky.social
Simon Hix @simonhix.bsky.social · 19d
We have just advertised a Full Prof position in the Political and Social Sciences department at the EUI (@eui-sps.bsky.social). Here are the details. Please spread the word, and get in touch if you have any questions.
www.eui.eu/Documents/Se...
www.eui.eu

Reposted by Ruth Dassonneville, Stefan Müller, Robert Huber , and 2 more

theresmatthiess.bsky.social
Theres Matthieß @theresmatthiess.bsky.social · 19d
💫💫💫 Great News: We are over the moon that our paper "Election Pledges in Multiparty Governments: When do Voters Accept Non-Fulfillment?" is now published in BJPS @bjpols.bsky.social 🍾 🤗

👉🏻 doi.org/10.1017/S000...

w/ Juha Ylisalo, Katrin Praprotnik & @laurenzennser.bsky.social

🧵1/5
Election Pledges in Multiparty Governments: When do Voters Accept Non-Fulfillment? | British Journal of Political Science | Cambridge Core
Election Pledges in Multiparty Governments: When do Voters Accept Non-Fulfillment? - Volume 55
doi.org

Reposted by Stefan Müller

jelkink.bsky.social
Jos Dornschneider-Elkink @jelkink.bsky.social · 24d
Enjoying the panels of the Specialist Group on Parties, Voters and Elections of the Political Studies Association of Ireland annual conference in Galway - great papers on Irish voting and electoral system!

Reposted by Stefan Müller

theresareidy.bsky.social
Theresa Reidy @theresareidy.bsky.social · 24d
Fascinating social class and voting data from Prof Gail McElroy from the 2024 general election National Election and Democracy Study. #PSAI25

Reposted by Stefan Müller, Sven‐Oliver Proksch

jwaeckerle.bsky.social
Jens Wäckerle @jwaeckerle.bsky.social · 25d
New from @erc.europa.eu project #MINORITYRULE with @sopro.bsky.social: We study voters’ knowledge about and perceptions of minority governments in 🇩🇰, 🇩🇪 and 🇸🇪.

Link: doi.org/10.1017/S147...

When survey researchers or politicians talk about minority governments, what do voters understand? ⬇️
Screenshot of the start of the paper. Title (Political knowledge and perceptions of minority governments in Europe), authors (Jens Wäckerle and Sven-Oliver Proksch) and journal (European Journal of Political Research)

Reposted by Simon Hix, Stefan Müller

epssnet.bsky.social
EPSS @epssnet.bsky.social · Oct 9
▶️ Political Methodology

👉🏽 Section chairs:
Andy Eggers
&
@stefanmueller.bsky.social

📢 Our section welcomes submissions for lightning rounds, author-meets-critics panels, and topical roundtables on political methodology.

/end

Reposted by Stefan Müller

stefanmueller.bsky.social
Stefan Müller @stefanmueller.bsky.social · Oct 6
There goes the paper on support for Jim Gavin among those interested in Gaelic games in Dublin versus rival counties.

Liam Kneafsey and I successfully applied for including these questions in the Irish Presidential Election Study, and we completed the pre-analysis plan and code last week. 😬😢
Pre-Analysis Plan: Rivalries and Celebrity Candidates: How Sport Shapes Voting Behaviour in Ireland Authors: Liam Kneafsey and Stefan Müller