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stefanmueller.bsky.social
Stefan Müller
@stefanmueller.bsky.social
3.9K followers 1.5K following 240 posts
Associate Professor @ucddublin.bsky.social • party competition, public opinion, political communication, computational social science • Maintainer @irishpollingind.bsky.social • Executive Committee Member @yai.ie
muellerstefan.net
Posts Replies Media Videos
Reposted by Stefan Müller
chriswratil.bsky.social
🚨 Job Alert! Postdoc in POLITICAL TEXT ANALYSIS in the MULTIREP project

You do quant text analysis? You are interested in political representation? Enjoy working in teams? Would like to live in a great city? Consider joining us in Vienna!

⏱️ Apply by 15/12/2025

wratil.eu/files/MULTIR...

1/4 🧵
November 10, 2025 at 6:50 AM
Reposted by Stefan Müller
kenbenoit.bsky.social
#EPSS2026 currently at over 1,100 submissions and climbing, report the conference committee chairs. Submissions close tomorrow. Don't forget to submit!
app.oxfordabstracts.com/stages/79266...

All your questions answered here:
epssnet.org/conferences/...

@epssnet.bsky.social
Oxford Abstracts
app.oxfordabstracts.com
November 6, 2025 at 8:15 AM
Reposted by Stefan Müller
ucdresearch.bsky.social
Advanced UCD Research in Artificial Intelligence (AURA), our single biggest investment in #AI #supercomputing!

@ucddublin.bsky.social also invested €1.45m to upgrade existing campus-wide HPC stack, supporting Ireland's largest concentration of AI researchers
www.siliconrepublic.com/innovation/u...
UCD buys €724,000 Nvidia supercomputer for AI-led research boost
University College Dublin's new Nvidia supercomputer has 50 times the performance capacity compared to the existing cluster at the university.
www.siliconrepublic.com
November 5, 2025 at 3:49 PM
Reposted by Stefan Müller
ucdpolitics.bsky.social
Applications are now open for the UCD Iseult Honohan Doctoral Scholarship 2026.

Closing Date: 30 January 2026

✔️Covers full fees (EU and Non-EU)
✔️Provides a living stipend of €25,000 per year for up to four years
✔️Is open to EU and non-EU applicants

👇
www.ucd.ie/spire/study/...
November 3, 2025 at 3:07 PM
Reposted by Stefan Müller
sarahobolt.bsky.social
🚨 EPSS Belfast 2026 Call for Papers - One week to go! 🚨

Don't forget to submit your paper or panel proposal to the European Political Science Society @epssnet.bsky.social 2026 conference - just one week to go before the deadline: epssnet.org/belfast-2026...
Call for Papers | EPSS Belfast 2026 Conference
Submit your abstract or full paper for EPSS Belfast 2026. Share cutting‑edge political science research, network with peers & contribute to academic impact.
epssnet.org
October 31, 2025 at 2:00 PM
stefanmueller.bsky.social
Really important and insightful analysis of the voters who spoiled their ballots in the presidential election.

@kevcunningham.bsky.social also classifies open-ended survey responses to better understand the underlying reasons and motivations.

➡️ open.substack.com/pub/kevcunni...
Respondents were asked ‘Why’ they voted the way they did in an open-ended text box. These are the responses classified into groups. Open-ended survey responses – proportional sample of statements % of each voter type that spoiled their ballot as opposed to those who voted at the 2025 Irish Presidential election. % who spoiled their vote broken down by age, gender and self-reported social class.
October 29, 2025 at 1:39 PM
Reposted by Stefan Müller
kevcunningham.bsky.social
I've completed an analysis of the spoiled voter in the link below. This is a voter who will invariably come into play in the future.

kevcunningham.substack.com/p/who-are-th...
Who are the people who spoiled their ballot and why?
An initial analysis
kevcunningham.substack.com
October 28, 2025 at 5:53 PM
Reposted by Stefan Müller
peilingwijzer.bsky.social
The Peilingwijzer poll of polls for the Netherlands has been updated to include the latest polls of Verian/EenVandaag and Ipsos I&O.

📊 📈 All graphs & figures: https://peilingwijzer.tomlouwerse.nl/
Graph with most recent scores of Peilingwijzer poll of poll (Netherlands)
October 28, 2025 at 4:59 PM
Reposted by Stefan Müller
irishpollingind.bsky.social
Updated aggregated estimates:

Sinn Féin: 24% (22.5–25.5)
Fine Gael: 19.5% (18–20.5)
Fianna Fáil: 19% (18–20)
Ind/Oth: 13.5% (12–15)
Soc Dems: 7.5% (6.5–8.5)
Lab: 4.5% (4–5.5)
Aontú: 4% (3–5)
II: 3.5% (3–4.5)
SPBP: 2.5% (2–3)
GP: 2.5% (2–2.5)

➡️ pollingindicator.com
Sinn Féin: 24% (22.5–25.5) Fine Gael: 19.5% (18–20.5) Fianna Fáil: 19% (18–20) Ind/Oth: 13.5% (12–15) Soc Dems: 7.5% (6.5–8.5) Lab: 4.5% (4–5.5) Aontú: 4% (3–5) II: 3.5% (3–4.5) SPBP: 2.5% (2–3) GP: 2.5% (2–2.5) https://pollingindicator.com House Effects
October 26, 2025 at 11:24 AM
Reposted by Stefan Müller
alexdukalskis.bsky.social
If you’re in New York join me & @cooleyoneurasia.bsky.social at @columbiauniversity.bsky.social as we talk w/ @adamtooze.bsky.social about our new book Dictating the Agenda: The Authoritarian Resurgence in World Politics

Register here:

harriman.columbia.edu/event/book-l...
Book Launch. "Dictating the Agenda"
Please join the Harriman Institute and the Committee on Global Thought for a book launch of "Dictating the Agenda" by Alexander Cooley and Alexander Dukalskis. Moderated by Adam Tooze.
harriman.columbia.edu
October 27, 2025 at 11:52 AM
Reposted by Stefan Müller
theresareidy.bsky.social
Writing about what the presidential vote means in Irish Examiner today. Green shoots for the left, bad news for the government and warning signs from a potentially undemocratic far-right.

www.irishexaminer.com/opinion/comm...
Theresa Reidy: Catherine Connolly's victory has lessons for the Government, the left, and future candidates
The election result sends a sharp warning note to the Government
www.irishexaminer.com
October 27, 2025 at 9:48 AM
Reposted by Stefan Müller
rtetwip.bsky.social
Politics lecturer at TU Dublin, @kevcunningham.bsky.social , reflects on the 'three major events' in the presidential campaign that culminated in @catherinegalway's eventual victory.

#RTETWIP will repeat at 23:10 tonight on @rteone.rte.ie
October 26, 2025 at 2:53 PM
Reposted by Stefan Müller
rtetwip.bsky.social
Also on today's #RTETWIP at noon, post #PresidentialElection analysis will also be provided by TU Dublin Politics Lecturer, @kevcunningham.bsky.social and RTE Political Correspondent
@fertha.bsky.social.

Tune in on @rteone.rte.ie and catch the repeat at 23:10
October 26, 2025 at 10:15 AM
Reposted by Stefan Müller
spiegel.de
Irland: Catherine Connolly gewinnt Präsidentschaftswahl deutlich: Die von einem Linksbündnis unterstützte Kandidatin Catherine Connolly hat die Präsidentschaftswahl in Irland gewonnen. Die einzige Mitbewerberin gratulierte schon am Nachmittag. Und doch gibt es für Connolly nicht nur Grund zum…
Irland: Catherine Connolly gewinnt Präsidentschaftswahl deutlich
Die von einem Linksbündnis unterstützte Kandidatin Catherine Connolly hat die Präsidentschaftswahl in Irland gewonnen. Die einzige Mitbewerberin gratulierte schon am Nachmittag. Und doch gibt es für Connolly nicht nur Grund zum Feiern.
www.spiegel.de
October 25, 2025 at 6:49 PM
Reposted by Stefan Müller
gavreilly.com
🚨 Aggregate of national #aras25 tallies
(albeit only partial in some constituencies):

Catherine Connolly 63%
Heather Humphreys 30%
Jim Gavin 7%

Roughly 13% of votes nationwide are spoiled/invalid

@virginmedianews.bsky.social
October 25, 2025 at 11:44 AM
stefanmueller.bsky.social
Reasons for vote choice according to the Ireland Thinks polling day poll ⤵️
#Aras25
analysis.irelandthinks.ie/polling-day-...
@kevcunningham.bsky.social
Which of the following was most important in making your choice? (Select up to 2) Connolly voters relied on Integrity & Honesty, Competence and Communication skills. Humphreys voters more likely to focus on how the candidate represented Ireland internationally.
October 25, 2025 at 11:10 AM
stefanmueller.bsky.social
📊 @kevcunningham.bsky.social is publishing findings from the Ireland Thinks polling day poll at analysis.irelandthinks.ie
Question: Thinking about your number 1, first- preference vote, was that choice mainly FOR your chosen candidate, OR mainly AGAINST another candidate, or both about equally? Question: If elected, do you feel like Catherine Connolly would be similar to Michael D. Higgins as president?
October 25, 2025 at 10:37 AM
Reposted by Stefan Müller
gavreilly.com
Called it at 9:13, which is a new record I think. Connolly by 60%+. Spoiled votes may outpoll Heather Humphreys.
October 25, 2025 at 9:13 AM
Reposted by Stefan Müller
newschambers.bsky.social
It’s all long over and done with in the first 25 minutes of counting.

A very comprehensive win for Catherine Connolly on the cards.

Questions now are quite how big the margin, the time of the count and how high the number of spoiled votes turns out to be.

#Aras25
October 25, 2025 at 8:30 AM
Reposted by Stefan Müller
gavreilly.com
🗳️ #aras25 Count Results live, from as soon as each of the 43 constituencies start to report their results: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Presidential Election 2025 (#aras25) - live results by @gavreilly
docs.google.com
October 25, 2025 at 6:54 AM
Reposted by Stefan Müller
nvondarza.bsky.social
Really well done explainer of the election system for the Irish Presidential elections using... smarties. Bonus points for showing why Irish election counting takes so long:
gavreilly.com Gavan Reilly @gavreilly.com · 19d
Are you a little confused about how Ireland’s Presidential Election works?

Fear not: I have once again picked up some 🔴 popular 🟠 coloured 🟡 chocolate-based 🟢 confectionary 🔵 treats 🟣 to show how the #aras25 votes are counted.

@virginmedianews.bsky.social
October 24, 2025 at 8:31 AM
Reposted by Stefan Müller
simonhix.bsky.social
We have just advertised a Full Prof position in the Political and Social Sciences department at the EUI (@eui-sps.bsky.social). Here are the details. Please spread the word, and get in touch if you have any questions.
www.eui.eu/Documents/Se...
www.eui.eu
October 23, 2025 at 2:03 PM
Reposted by Stefan Müller
theresmatthiess.bsky.social
💫💫💫 Great News: We are over the moon that our paper "Election Pledges in Multiparty Governments: When do Voters Accept Non-Fulfillment?" is now published in BJPS @bjpols.bsky.social 🍾 🤗

👉🏻 doi.org/10.1017/S000...

w/ Juha Ylisalo, Katrin Praprotnik & @laurenzennser.bsky.social

🧵1/5
Election Pledges in Multiparty Governments: When do Voters Accept Non-Fulfillment? | British Journal of Political Science | Cambridge Core
Election Pledges in Multiparty Governments: When do Voters Accept Non-Fulfillment? - Volume 55
doi.org
October 23, 2025 at 8:20 AM
Reposted by Stefan Müller
theresareidy.bsky.social
Fascinating social class and voting data from Prof Gail McElroy from the 2024 general election National Election and Democracy Study. #PSAI25
October 18, 2025 at 9:19 AM
Reposted by Stefan Müller
jelkink.bsky.social
Enjoying the panels of the Specialist Group on Parties, Voters and Elections of the Political Studies Association of Ireland annual conference in Galway - great papers on Irish voting and electoral system!
October 18, 2025 at 11:03 AM