Josh Hollinger
@joshhollinger.bsky.social
Christian - Economist at Dordt University (Sioux Center, IA) - Labor economics, personnel economics, education economics, sports economics
Reposted by Josh Hollinger
“We will never become a better or more united country if we cannot point to indecent actions taken and statements made by those we agree with politically and say, ‘This is wrong. This is something that decent human beings do not do.’”
Please read this piece by the National Review’s Jim Geraghty, if you never read anything else.
www.nationalreview.com/the-morning-...
www.nationalreview.com/the-morning-...
Trump’s Appalling Reiner Reaction Is a Sign of Something Deeply Wrong | National Review
Yes, we must talk about what President Trump posted on Truth Social about the brutal murders of the Reiners.
www.nationalreview.com
December 17, 2025 at 12:46 AM
“We will never become a better or more united country if we cannot point to indecent actions taken and statements made by those we agree with politically and say, ‘This is wrong. This is something that decent human beings do not do.’”
Reposted by Josh Hollinger
NEW: If successful, the H-1B change would severely damage the most important channel for US entry by workers with advanced degrees & specialized knowledge, causing profound & widespread harm to Americans’ incomes & job opportunities.
By @mclem.org:
By @mclem.org:
New US curb on high-skill immigrant workers ignores evidence of its likely harms
President Donald Trump on Friday ordered an unprecedented new restriction on lawful immigration to the US by high-skill workers. Starting Sunday, new applications for H-1B visas required payment of an...
www.piie.com
September 22, 2025 at 8:35 PM
NEW: If successful, the H-1B change would severely damage the most important channel for US entry by workers with advanced degrees & specialized knowledge, causing profound & widespread harm to Americans’ incomes & job opportunities.
By @mclem.org:
By @mclem.org:
Reposted by Josh Hollinger
The argument is: We're all meant to sacrifice a bit, so that tariffs can help rebuild American manufacturing. Let's ask American manufacturers whether they're helping.
September 2, 2025 at 2:21 PM
The argument is: We're all meant to sacrifice a bit, so that tariffs can help rebuild American manufacturing. Let's ask American manufacturers whether they're helping.
Reposted by Josh Hollinger
I expand on why I--like just about every economist and wonk I know--believes that EJ Antoni is a terrible pick for BLS Commission.
Shout outs to Alan Cole, Stan Veuger and if more space would have called out dozens more. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/13/o...
Shout outs to Alan Cole, Stan Veuger and if more space would have called out dozens more. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/13/o...
Opinion | Why Economists Are Worried About Trump’s B.L.S. Changes
Most of us just accept that government economic data is the best possible estimate of the economy. That could change, and that would be bad for all of us.
www.nytimes.com
August 14, 2025 at 8:29 AM
I expand on why I--like just about every economist and wonk I know--believes that EJ Antoni is a terrible pick for BLS Commission.
Shout outs to Alan Cole, Stan Veuger and if more space would have called out dozens more. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/13/o...
Shout outs to Alan Cole, Stan Veuger and if more space would have called out dozens more. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/13/o...
Reposted by Josh Hollinger
Trump's firing of the BLS commissioner after a weak jobs report drew condemnation from economists across the political spectrum who were worried about the politicization of government data. His choice of replacement has only added to those concerns. #EconSky
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/12/b...
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/12/b...
Trump’s Pick to Lead Labor Data Agency Adds to Fears of Political Interference
www.nytimes.com
August 12, 2025 at 7:48 PM
Trump's firing of the BLS commissioner after a weak jobs report drew condemnation from economists across the political spectrum who were worried about the politicization of government data. His choice of replacement has only added to those concerns. #EconSky
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/12/b...
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/12/b...
Reposted by Josh Hollinger
Powell stressed today that the Fed's decisions will be based on how the economic data performs in coming months.
One problem: That data may be becoming less reliable.
My story on the BLS's latest cuts to CPI data collection:
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/30/b... #EconSky
One problem: That data may be becoming less reliable.
My story on the BLS's latest cuts to CPI data collection:
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/30/b... #EconSky
Cuts to Data Collection May Erode Reliability of Economic Statistics
www.nytimes.com
July 30, 2025 at 7:28 PM
Powell stressed today that the Fed's decisions will be based on how the economic data performs in coming months.
One problem: That data may be becoming less reliable.
My story on the BLS's latest cuts to CPI data collection:
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/30/b... #EconSky
One problem: That data may be becoming less reliable.
My story on the BLS's latest cuts to CPI data collection:
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/30/b... #EconSky
Reposted by Josh Hollinger
We were lucky enough to have our YouGov/The Economist poll in field when the US bombed Iranian nuclear facilities. You can see the partisan realignment in real time
June 27, 2025 at 11:33 AM
We were lucky enough to have our YouGov/The Economist poll in field when the US bombed Iranian nuclear facilities. You can see the partisan realignment in real time
This study finds that removing tenure protection (requiring performance review every five years) didn’t increase faculty productivity for tenured profs, but did drive away more productive profs (in retention and hiring).
A few comments:
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A few comments:
…
May 23, 2025 at 6:43 PM
This study finds that removing tenure protection (requiring performance review every five years) didn’t increase faculty productivity for tenured profs, but did drive away more productive profs (in retention and hiring).
A few comments:
…
A few comments:
…
The debate on who benefits from changes always has to be contextualized in an understanding of the status quo (a progressive tax system).
But if we want to tax the rich, we could maintain a lower cap on the SALT deduction… it’s also the only tax hike that makes political sense for Republicans.
But if we want to tax the rich, we could maintain a lower cap on the SALT deduction… it’s also the only tax hike that makes political sense for Republicans.
NYT: “.. People making between about $51,000 and $17,000 could lose about $700 on average in after-tax income ..
“By contrast, the top 0.1 percent, including those with incomes over $4.3 million, would gain on average more than $389,000 ..”
@tonyromm.bsky.social
www.nytimes.com/2025/05/16/u...
“By contrast, the top 0.1 percent, including those with incomes over $4.3 million, would gain on average more than $389,000 ..”
@tonyromm.bsky.social
www.nytimes.com/2025/05/16/u...
May 19, 2025 at 3:53 PM
The debate on who benefits from changes always has to be contextualized in an understanding of the status quo (a progressive tax system).
But if we want to tax the rich, we could maintain a lower cap on the SALT deduction… it’s also the only tax hike that makes political sense for Republicans.
But if we want to tax the rich, we could maintain a lower cap on the SALT deduction… it’s also the only tax hike that makes political sense for Republicans.
Just making an official note-to-self prediction here for the end of 2025:
1) the federal government deficit won’t decrease (at least $1.9 trillion)
2) unemployment rate increases to at least 5%
3) inflation rate increases to at least 4%
i.e. economy gets worse
1) the federal government deficit won’t decrease (at least $1.9 trillion)
2) unemployment rate increases to at least 5%
3) inflation rate increases to at least 4%
i.e. economy gets worse
May 9, 2025 at 7:20 PM
Just making an official note-to-self prediction here for the end of 2025:
1) the federal government deficit won’t decrease (at least $1.9 trillion)
2) unemployment rate increases to at least 5%
3) inflation rate increases to at least 4%
i.e. economy gets worse
1) the federal government deficit won’t decrease (at least $1.9 trillion)
2) unemployment rate increases to at least 5%
3) inflation rate increases to at least 4%
i.e. economy gets worse
There’s a lot of overlap between political strategy centered on negotiation and political strategy centered on accumulating power.
April 9, 2025 at 6:59 PM
There’s a lot of overlap between political strategy centered on negotiation and political strategy centered on accumulating power.
Reposted by Josh Hollinger
Rand Paul: "The whole [tariffs] debate is so fundamentally backwards & upside down. It's based on a fallacy & the fallacy is this: that somehow in a trade, someone must lose. That somehow when you trade with someone, someone is taking advantage of you... I have a trade deficit with my grocery store"
April 8, 2025 at 4:13 PM
Rand Paul: "The whole [tariffs] debate is so fundamentally backwards & upside down. It's based on a fallacy & the fallacy is this: that somehow in a trade, someone must lose. That somehow when you trade with someone, someone is taking advantage of you... I have a trade deficit with my grocery store"
Reposted by Josh Hollinger
The main effect of tariff insanity:
Uncertainty poisoning supply networks, degrading a lot of relationships at once.
That scar tissue will linger for a long time.
1/
Uncertainty poisoning supply networks, degrading a lot of relationships at once.
That scar tissue will linger for a long time.
1/
April 7, 2025 at 11:28 AM
The main effect of tariff insanity:
Uncertainty poisoning supply networks, degrading a lot of relationships at once.
That scar tissue will linger for a long time.
1/
Uncertainty poisoning supply networks, degrading a lot of relationships at once.
That scar tissue will linger for a long time.
1/
Liberation Day means freedom from access to goods and services and freedom from our consumeristic desires. Now that’s innovative economic policy.
Trump Calmly Reminds Nation That Desire The Root Of All Suffering
WASHINGTON—Seeking to reassure the public after his latest tariffs sent both U.S. and international markets into free fall, President Donald Trump calmly reminded the nation Thursday that desire is th...
theonion.com
April 5, 2025 at 1:51 AM
Liberation Day means freedom from access to goods and services and freedom from our consumeristic desires. Now that’s innovative economic policy.
Reposted by Josh Hollinger
They claim these are "reciprocal tariffs." But their actions do not follow any known definition of those words. It's a day of great escalation, not retaliation. What do you think the likelihood of a recession is now?
youtu.be/vhaNwCUmcUc?...
youtu.be/vhaNwCUmcUc?...
Trump Broke Centuries-Old Tariff
YouTube video by Christopher Clarke
youtu.be
April 3, 2025 at 4:03 PM
They claim these are "reciprocal tariffs." But their actions do not follow any known definition of those words. It's a day of great escalation, not retaliation. What do you think the likelihood of a recession is now?
youtu.be/vhaNwCUmcUc?...
youtu.be/vhaNwCUmcUc?...
Reposted by Josh Hollinger
WH has now confirmed: this is insane nypost.com/2025/04/02/u...
April 3, 2025 at 12:17 AM
WH has now confirmed: this is insane nypost.com/2025/04/02/u...
Reposted by Josh Hollinger
I'm a fiscal conservative, so why am I so down on DOGE? I had a chat with Jessica Reidl from the Manhattan Institute about DOGE as "spending cut theater." It's mainly serious about malice. It's not serious about the budget. www.nytimes.com/2025/03/05/o...
Opinion | Elon Musk and the Useless Spending-Cut Theater of DOGE
The columnist David French speaks with a fellow fiscal conservative about what the Department of Government Efficiency should actually be doing.
www.nytimes.com
March 5, 2025 at 10:33 PM
I'm a fiscal conservative, so why am I so down on DOGE? I had a chat with Jessica Reidl from the Manhattan Institute about DOGE as "spending cut theater." It's mainly serious about malice. It's not serious about the budget. www.nytimes.com/2025/03/05/o...
Great article here. In short: robust supply chains and domestic supply chains aren’t necessarily the same thing. (Free trade is eggstra nice when bird flu hits the US)
Of course I wrote this up: "The Trump Administration’s Eggstremely Interesting Fix for High Prices" www.cato.org/blog/trump-a... via @cato.org
February 26, 2025 at 11:52 PM
Great article here. In short: robust supply chains and domestic supply chains aren’t necessarily the same thing. (Free trade is eggstra nice when bird flu hits the US)
As a professor, there’s hardly a belief more foundational than “there IS something to study”. The war of “common sense” against expertise rages on.
REPORTER: Would you direct agencies to study the impact tariffs would have on prices in the US?
TRUMP: No. There's nothing to study. It's gonna go well.
TRUMP: No. There's nothing to study. It's gonna go well.
February 13, 2025 at 9:25 PM
As a professor, there’s hardly a belief more foundational than “there IS something to study”. The war of “common sense” against expertise rages on.
Reposted by Josh Hollinger
President Trump has opened the throttle on blowing through apparent legal limits, often with no clear public explanation for how their actions could be consistent with the rule of law. Here are some examples of the administration’s defiance of statutes. nyti.ms/4aKnKRP
February 5, 2025 at 9:32 PM
President Trump has opened the throttle on blowing through apparent legal limits, often with no clear public explanation for how their actions could be consistent with the rule of law. Here are some examples of the administration’s defiance of statutes. nyti.ms/4aKnKRP
Important points here about the ineffectiveness and delusion of DOGE’s efforts to cut government spending. I’m more concerned about the “it’s also wildly illegal” part though.
“Why aren’t you cheering Trump & DOGE? I thought you wanted spending and deficit cuts!"
Here's my long ranty answer posted on the other site...
Here's my long ranty answer posted on the other site...
February 5, 2025 at 3:14 AM
Important points here about the ineffectiveness and delusion of DOGE’s efforts to cut government spending. I’m more concerned about the “it’s also wildly illegal” part though.
In short: lose-lose scenario. Canada and Mexico account for almost a third of US trade.
A new analysis from the Tax Policy Center estimates that imposing a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico would reduce after-tax incomes by nearly 1% in 2026, costing the average household the equivalent of $930 in lost income.
taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/25-pe...
taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/25-pe...
January 31, 2025 at 9:44 PM
In short: lose-lose scenario. Canada and Mexico account for almost a third of US trade.
It seems there’s a broader crisis of expertise in our culture, which includes problematic distrust of economists on economic issues. The other side of the coin is how can experts be trustworthy and credibly demonstrate trustworthiness?
Economists are in the wilderness. Politicians and the public have rejected their advice on everything from trade to climate change. They held comparatively little sway under Biden, and stand to hold less under Trump. Can they find their way back to influence?
#EconSky
www.nytimes.com/2025/01/10/b...
#EconSky
www.nytimes.com/2025/01/10/b...
Economists Are in the Wilderness. Can They Find a Way Back to Influence? (Gift Article)
Economists have long helped to shape policy on issues like taxes and health care. But flawed forecasts and arcane language have cost them credibility.
www.nytimes.com
January 10, 2025 at 5:03 PM
It seems there’s a broader crisis of expertise in our culture, which includes problematic distrust of economists on economic issues. The other side of the coin is how can experts be trustworthy and credibly demonstrate trustworthiness?