John Springford
@johnspringford.bsky.social
Economist and occasional politics dabbler. Working on a project to improve labour markets. Associate fellow, Centre for European Reform. Visiting fellow, Institute for Policy Research, Bath University.
Reposted by John Springford
The improvement in the employment rate of non-EU migrants to the UK over the past 15 years is remarkable, especially since the pandemic.
www.ons.gov.uk/employmentan...
www.ons.gov.uk/employmentan...
November 11, 2025 at 8:09 AM
The improvement in the employment rate of non-EU migrants to the UK over the past 15 years is remarkable, especially since the pandemic.
www.ons.gov.uk/employmentan...
www.ons.gov.uk/employmentan...
Reposted by John Springford
A surprisingly bad set of labour market stats this morning. The story I was prepared for was "some weakening, but the shake out from the early part of the year is behind us". But it's worse than that - payroll jobs falling again, unemployment now up at 5%.
Here is our PN
Here is our PN
November 11, 2025 at 7:55 AM
A surprisingly bad set of labour market stats this morning. The story I was prepared for was "some weakening, but the shake out from the early part of the year is behind us". But it's worse than that - payroll jobs falling again, unemployment now up at 5%.
Here is our PN
Here is our PN
Reposted by John Springford
Ah, the “teething problems of young democracies” narrative. How well I remember it from PiS’s first term…
The Anglo consensus of the first half of 2010s was that where continental Europeans were endemically subject to crises and demagoguery, "we" were distinctly were more enlightened. Cameron's Britain. Obama's America. Ponderous essays about Magna Carta and the "golden thread".
How wrong it all was.
How wrong it all was.
I fear we are seeing in the UK what has become abundantly clear in the US: for all their power and privilege, elites and institutions are absolute cowards in the face of right-wing authoritarianism. Weak, weak, weak, as Tony Blair once said
November 10, 2025 at 6:06 PM
Ah, the “teething problems of young democracies” narrative. How well I remember it from PiS’s first term…
Christian sitting next to me was not unrelated to me getting my head around it.
If you want to discuss this further, ask @johnspringford.bsky.social, who has done the most consistent cost-of-Brexit work out there over the years. I know because I was sitting at the desk next to him for some of that time.
November 10, 2025 at 5:49 PM
Christian sitting next to me was not unrelated to me getting my head around it.
Very interesting paper. Confirms what we knew from cross-country studies - large, rapid effects. The really interesting part is the firm-level analysis, which shows similar, if somewhat lower, magnitudes.
www.nber.org/papers/w3445...
www.nber.org/papers/w3445...
November 10, 2025 at 11:44 AM
Very interesting paper. Confirms what we knew from cross-country studies - large, rapid effects. The really interesting part is the firm-level analysis, which shows similar, if somewhat lower, magnitudes.
www.nber.org/papers/w3445...
www.nber.org/papers/w3445...
It's not bad exactly - more awkward with people outside an intimate circle. "What emotion should I display towards this person who I don't know well?"
Can’t believe the British think it is bad to be earnest
Ah, I see the earnest quote reposters have arrived/America has woken up.
November 7, 2025 at 1:12 PM
It's not bad exactly - more awkward with people outside an intimate circle. "What emotion should I display towards this person who I don't know well?"
Reposted by John Springford
"Can we say that #populists are natural predators on the inherent weaknesses of democracies, preying on issues that are hard to resolve in a democratic way?"
@zecsaky.bsky.social asked @benansell.bsky.social & @johnspringford.bsky.social in the latest #CERpodcast.
Listen here: buff.ly/qT7A3eF
@zecsaky.bsky.social asked @benansell.bsky.social & @johnspringford.bsky.social in the latest #CERpodcast.
Listen here: buff.ly/qT7A3eF
November 6, 2025 at 12:02 PM
"Can we say that #populists are natural predators on the inherent weaknesses of democracies, preying on issues that are hard to resolve in a democratic way?"
@zecsaky.bsky.social asked @benansell.bsky.social & @johnspringford.bsky.social in the latest #CERpodcast.
Listen here: buff.ly/qT7A3eF
@zecsaky.bsky.social asked @benansell.bsky.social & @johnspringford.bsky.social in the latest #CERpodcast.
Listen here: buff.ly/qT7A3eF
Reposted by John Springford
NEW REPORT: Modelling and reforming school choice
By Ellen Greaves, @estellecantillon.bsky.social, @mariagraziacavallo.bsky.social and me.
Blog economics.blogs.bristol.ac.uk/2025/11/06/a...
Policy briefing
www.bristol.ac.uk/media-librar...
#EconSky #EduSky
1/9
By Ellen Greaves, @estellecantillon.bsky.social, @mariagraziacavallo.bsky.social and me.
Blog economics.blogs.bristol.ac.uk/2025/11/06/a...
Policy briefing
www.bristol.ac.uk/media-librar...
#EconSky #EduSky
1/9
Access to highly effective schools: The case for reform – Welcome to the Economics blog
How do we address the gap in attainment between the most advantaged and disadvantaged students in the UK? Pioneering research, led by the University of Bristol, reveals the reforms most likely to equa...
economics.blogs.bristol.ac.uk
November 6, 2025 at 8:01 AM
NEW REPORT: Modelling and reforming school choice
By Ellen Greaves, @estellecantillon.bsky.social, @mariagraziacavallo.bsky.social and me.
Blog economics.blogs.bristol.ac.uk/2025/11/06/a...
Policy briefing
www.bristol.ac.uk/media-librar...
#EconSky #EduSky
1/9
By Ellen Greaves, @estellecantillon.bsky.social, @mariagraziacavallo.bsky.social and me.
Blog economics.blogs.bristol.ac.uk/2025/11/06/a...
Policy briefing
www.bristol.ac.uk/media-librar...
#EconSky #EduSky
1/9
This would also be anti-growth, because it would reduce new EV sales and do little to curb congestion.
This really is poorly thought through.
If you are going to do a per mile charge it should be for all vehicles. Petrol is undercharged in comparison to its negative impacts.
And it's a phenomenally bad idea to create additional psychological barriers to owning EVs.
on.ft.com/4oxpaFs
If you are going to do a per mile charge it should be for all vehicles. Petrol is undercharged in comparison to its negative impacts.
And it's a phenomenally bad idea to create additional psychological barriers to owning EVs.
on.ft.com/4oxpaFs
Reeves poised to unveil Budget plan for EV drivers to pay per mile charges
Chancellor looks to offset a forecast sharp drop in government revenue from fuel duty
on.ft.com
November 6, 2025 at 8:18 AM
This would also be anti-growth, because it would reduce new EV sales and do little to curb congestion.
Spain in a sweet spot: tourism boom, growing high value services, decent manufacturing base, relatively low energy costs, high immigration.
www.reuters.com/default/spai...
www.reuters.com/default/spai...
November 5, 2025 at 6:14 PM
Spain in a sweet spot: tourism boom, growing high value services, decent manufacturing base, relatively low energy costs, high immigration.
www.reuters.com/default/spai...
www.reuters.com/default/spai...
Reposted by John Springford
From CER: What the Dutch elections mean for the Netherlands and for Europe. www.cer.eu/insights/wha...
What the Dutch elections mean for the Netherlands and for Europe
Armida van Rij and Sander Tordoir decipher what the election results mean for The Netherlands and Europe more broadly.
www.cer.eu
November 5, 2025 at 1:35 PM
From CER: What the Dutch elections mean for the Netherlands and for Europe. www.cer.eu/insights/wha...
Reposted by John Springford
I found the campaign in the Netherlands very frustrating and was even more annoyed by all the hot takes suggesting the result marked a defeat for the populists, so I tried to write my anger away open.substack.com/pub/twentyfo...
False choice
"Victory" for the Dutch centre is welcome but Pyrrhic
open.substack.com
October 31, 2025 at 9:09 AM
I found the campaign in the Netherlands very frustrating and was even more annoyed by all the hot takes suggesting the result marked a defeat for the populists, so I tried to write my anger away open.substack.com/pub/twentyfo...
Reposted by John Springford
The IFS has calculated that the effective carbon price on household use of gas is negative, thanks to its lower VAT rate.
ifs.org.uk/articles/tax....
This obviously sets back the carbon transition. Let's hope the Government is looking to make this better!
ifs.org.uk/articles/tax....
This obviously sets back the carbon transition. Let's hope the Government is looking to make this better!
November 5, 2025 at 10:55 AM
The IFS has calculated that the effective carbon price on household use of gas is negative, thanks to its lower VAT rate.
ifs.org.uk/articles/tax....
This obviously sets back the carbon transition. Let's hope the Government is looking to make this better!
ifs.org.uk/articles/tax....
This obviously sets back the carbon transition. Let's hope the Government is looking to make this better!
Reposted by John Springford
Many thanks to @johnspringford.bsky.social and @zecsaky.bsky.social for having me on to talk about populism and democracy.
🎙️ @zecsaky.bsky.social, @benansell.bsky.social and @johnspringford.bsky.social discuss the rise of European #populism and what moderates should or shouldn't do to stem its rise in the latest #CERpodcast. 🎙️
Listen to the episode here: buff.ly/qT7A3eF
Listen to the episode here: buff.ly/qT7A3eF
November 5, 2025 at 10:42 AM
Many thanks to @johnspringford.bsky.social and @zecsaky.bsky.social for having me on to talk about populism and democracy.
Thought-provoking and beautifully delivered, as ever
I did a lecture on the impact of Brexit on British politics. Watch it here if you're really bored www.youtube.com/watch?v=ztqL...
Reflections on the Brexit Revolution: 2025-26 Mackenzie-Stuart Lecture
YouTube video by Cambridge Law Faculty
www.youtube.com
November 5, 2025 at 10:23 AM
Thought-provoking and beautifully delivered, as ever
This was extremely interesting. Or at least Zselyke and Ben were.
🎙️ @zecsaky.bsky.social, @benansell.bsky.social and @johnspringford.bsky.social discuss the rise of European #populism and what moderates should or shouldn't do to stem its rise in the latest #CERpodcast. 🎙️
Listen to the episode here: buff.ly/qT7A3eF
Listen to the episode here: buff.ly/qT7A3eF
November 5, 2025 at 9:04 AM
This was extremely interesting. Or at least Zselyke and Ben were.
Democrat Ousts Republican Bin Lorry Driver, Who Must Now Collect The Bins. It is possible to have too much politics.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/04/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/04/u...
In an Upset, Democrats Oust Two Republicans on Georgia’s Utility Board
www.nytimes.com
November 5, 2025 at 6:34 AM
Democrat Ousts Republican Bin Lorry Driver, Who Must Now Collect The Bins. It is possible to have too much politics.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/04/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/04/u...
I did some fairly detailed research on this. My house is average, insulation-wise. The cost of cutting emissions via a heat pump was a lot lower than insulation. Makes sense for government to prioritise heat pump support.
EXC: Rachel Reeves plans cuts to home energy efficiency schemes to pay for bills to be reduced.
Energy industry warns of “disastrous” consequences in the long term.
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...
Energy industry warns of “disastrous” consequences in the long term.
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...
November 4, 2025 at 7:49 PM
I did some fairly detailed research on this. My house is average, insulation-wise. The cost of cutting emissions via a heat pump was a lot lower than insulation. Makes sense for government to prioritise heat pump support.
Reposted by John Springford
open.substack.com/pub/geoffmul...
A lot of very important points in a short post
A lot of very important points in a short post
Hollowed out: can the centre hold?
Can the centre hold and resist the far right?
open.substack.com
November 4, 2025 at 6:58 PM
open.substack.com/pub/geoffmul...
A lot of very important points in a short post
A lot of very important points in a short post
"Have-a-go hero" would be perfect if Americans understood the phrase and the rest of the Anglosphere knew that a hero was a sandwich.
The defense team presses Lairmore on whether the sandwich really 'exploded.' They return to the photo of the sandwich and wrapper on the ground.
"That sandwich hasn't exploded at all, has it?" defense asks.
"It looks like a little bit is coming out towards the bottom," Lairmore replies.
"That sandwich hasn't exploded at all, has it?" defense asks.
"It looks like a little bit is coming out towards the bottom," Lairmore replies.
November 4, 2025 at 6:27 PM
"Have-a-go hero" would be perfect if Americans understood the phrase and the rest of the Anglosphere knew that a hero was a sandwich.
New Streisand effect forthcoming.
Big day at U.S. District Court in D.C. where Sean Dunn, the D.C. Sandwich Guy, is on trial for misdemeanor assault of a federal officer.
Border Patrol agent Gregory Lairmore is on the stand narrating surveillance video of the sammie toss.
'Now he’s struck me with the sandwich,' Lairmore says.
Border Patrol agent Gregory Lairmore is on the stand narrating surveillance video of the sammie toss.
'Now he’s struck me with the sandwich,' Lairmore says.
November 4, 2025 at 4:20 PM
New Streisand effect forthcoming.
Reposted by John Springford
The sun is shining in Brussels on this enlargement day! ☀️🗒️The Commission is presenting today enlargement progress reports on EU candidate countries. A good occasion for a thread on my recent work on the implications of enlargement on EU climate and energy agenda:
November 4, 2025 at 1:47 PM
The sun is shining in Brussels on this enlargement day! ☀️🗒️The Commission is presenting today enlargement progress reports on EU candidate countries. A good occasion for a thread on my recent work on the implications of enlargement on EU climate and energy agenda:
Reposted by John Springford
The case for tax rises is stronger & clearer than Reeves pretends. It's that, given our lack of productive capacity, we have an inflation problem, which means that the alternative to tax rises is either infeasible cuts in public spending or higher mortgage rates.
November 4, 2025 at 1:19 PM
The case for tax rises is stronger & clearer than Reeves pretends. It's that, given our lack of productive capacity, we have an inflation problem, which means that the alternative to tax rises is either infeasible cuts in public spending or higher mortgage rates.
Reposted by John Springford
NEW REPORT: POWERING HOMES, POWERING GROWTH
Taking the carbon out of heating buildings is one of the hardest parts of climate policy. Our new report starts by pointing out that while it is indeed hard, that doesn’t justify the poor performance of multiple governments in trying to tackle it. /1
Taking the carbon out of heating buildings is one of the hardest parts of climate policy. Our new report starts by pointing out that while it is indeed hard, that doesn’t justify the poor performance of multiple governments in trying to tackle it. /1
November 4, 2025 at 1:13 PM
NEW REPORT: POWERING HOMES, POWERING GROWTH
Taking the carbon out of heating buildings is one of the hardest parts of climate policy. Our new report starts by pointing out that while it is indeed hard, that doesn’t justify the poor performance of multiple governments in trying to tackle it. /1
Taking the carbon out of heating buildings is one of the hardest parts of climate policy. Our new report starts by pointing out that while it is indeed hard, that doesn’t justify the poor performance of multiple governments in trying to tackle it. /1