Bond, Aussie Bond
@george-lazenby.bsky.social
All things rates, macro, Dad, 🏒 Red Wings 🏄♂️. Here because I had my fill of the other place
Reposted by Bond, Aussie Bond
I know we did a podcast on the mar-a-lago accord a few weeks ago but honestly I can't read another article or sellside report trying to sanewash it. Its one of the silliest ideas I've ever heard, and I've been doing this a long time 🤣
March 22, 2025 at 8:44 AM
I know we did a podcast on the mar-a-lago accord a few weeks ago but honestly I can't read another article or sellside report trying to sanewash it. Its one of the silliest ideas I've ever heard, and I've been doing this a long time 🤣
Fed has basically updated it forecasts (inflation and GDP) for the tariffs that have been announced so far (plus a weaker start to 2025). Everything else is deferred until we get past "tariff day" and actually have some clarity on the new administration's plans
March 19, 2025 at 9:00 PM
Reposted by Bond, Aussie Bond
From Nick T at the WSJ: The Fed holds rates steady.
The median of the rate cut forecasts are unchanged from December (still at a two cut median).
The Fed slows Treasury runoff (QT) to $5 billion per month.
Chris Waller dissents on the QT decision. #EconSky
The median of the rate cut forecasts are unchanged from December (still at a two cut median).
The Fed slows Treasury runoff (QT) to $5 billion per month.
Chris Waller dissents on the QT decision. #EconSky
March 19, 2025 at 6:55 PM
From Nick T at the WSJ: The Fed holds rates steady.
The median of the rate cut forecasts are unchanged from December (still at a two cut median).
The Fed slows Treasury runoff (QT) to $5 billion per month.
Chris Waller dissents on the QT decision. #EconSky
The median of the rate cut forecasts are unchanged from December (still at a two cut median).
The Fed slows Treasury runoff (QT) to $5 billion per month.
Chris Waller dissents on the QT decision. #EconSky
Reposted by Bond, Aussie Bond
While US fiscal policy is set to tighten, the rest of the world is easing to support flagging economies.
The latest plans from China and Germany suggest nearly 2% increase in stimulus, just at a time when economic expectations are very depressed.
Thread.
The latest plans from China and Germany suggest nearly 2% increase in stimulus, just at a time when economic expectations are very depressed.
Thread.
March 5, 2025 at 11:15 AM
While US fiscal policy is set to tighten, the rest of the world is easing to support flagging economies.
The latest plans from China and Germany suggest nearly 2% increase in stimulus, just at a time when economic expectations are very depressed.
Thread.
The latest plans from China and Germany suggest nearly 2% increase in stimulus, just at a time when economic expectations are very depressed.
Thread.
Reposted by Bond, Aussie Bond
German fiscal - this is the most exciting thing to happen to euro-area economists in FOREVER 🤣
March 5, 2025 at 9:52 AM
German fiscal - this is the most exciting thing to happen to euro-area economists in FOREVER 🤣
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Eutelsat, the owner of OneWeb, a satellite rival to Starlink, said today that it was “actively collaborating with European institutions and business partners,” adding that it had equipment that could be “deployed swiftly in Ukraine to connect the most critical missions and infrastructures.”
Starlink rival in talks to boost satellite services to Ukraine
Eutelsat shares surge as investors bet that European competitor could replace Elon Musk’s company
www.ft.com
March 4, 2025 at 6:58 PM
Eutelsat, the owner of OneWeb, a satellite rival to Starlink, said today that it was “actively collaborating with European institutions and business partners,” adding that it had equipment that could be “deployed swiftly in Ukraine to connect the most critical missions and infrastructures.”
Reposted by Bond, Aussie Bond
"Will the next recession be the DOGE recession? Probably not, but the ingredients are there: mass layoffs of federal government workers, large cuts in government contracts and grants, a rapid pace, and heightened uncertainty about who will be affected."
stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/doge-reces...
stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/doge-reces...
DOGE recession?
DOGE is unlikely to cause a US recession, but its "move fast and break things" approach raises the risks.
stayathomemacro.substack.com
March 4, 2025 at 7:54 PM
"Will the next recession be the DOGE recession? Probably not, but the ingredients are there: mass layoffs of federal government workers, large cuts in government contracts and grants, a rapid pace, and heightened uncertainty about who will be affected."
stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/doge-reces...
stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/doge-reces...
Reposted by Bond, Aussie Bond
MASSIVE FISCAL PACKAGE OUT OF BERLIN: 12-20%+ of GDP.
- 500 billion fund for public investment
- All defence spending above 1% of GDP not counted for debt brake.
- Federal states can borrow 0.35% p.y. for investment.
Germany is back - economically and militarily.
1/x
- 500 billion fund for public investment
- All defence spending above 1% of GDP not counted for debt brake.
- Federal states can borrow 0.35% p.y. for investment.
Germany is back - economically and militarily.
1/x
March 4, 2025 at 6:26 PM
MASSIVE FISCAL PACKAGE OUT OF BERLIN: 12-20%+ of GDP.
- 500 billion fund for public investment
- All defence spending above 1% of GDP not counted for debt brake.
- Federal states can borrow 0.35% p.y. for investment.
Germany is back - economically and militarily.
1/x
- 500 billion fund for public investment
- All defence spending above 1% of GDP not counted for debt brake.
- Federal states can borrow 0.35% p.y. for investment.
Germany is back - economically and militarily.
1/x
Reposted by Bond, Aussie Bond
Really interesting and dare I say significant piece. Now is the time for the Europeans to issue common debt as panicky investors look to diversify away from the dollar
March 4, 2025 at 6:31 PM
Really interesting and dare I say significant piece. Now is the time for the Europeans to issue common debt as panicky investors look to diversify away from the dollar
Reposted by Bond, Aussie Bond
MORGAN STANLEY: “.. Our most recent survey of ~2,000 US consumers .. showed a marked deterioration in consumers’ outlooks for the US economy and their own household finances. Only 38% of respondents expect the economy to get better in the next six months .. 48% expect the economy to get worse.”
March 4, 2025 at 1:34 PM
MORGAN STANLEY: “.. Our most recent survey of ~2,000 US consumers .. showed a marked deterioration in consumers’ outlooks for the US economy and their own household finances. Only 38% of respondents expect the economy to get better in the next six months .. 48% expect the economy to get worse.”
Reposted by Bond, Aussie Bond
Join us tomorrow at 415pm ET for our monthly macro webinar. Sign up ahead to listen live and get your questions answered.
Welcome! You are invited to join a webinar: The Tightening Ahead…. After registering, you will receive a confirmation email about joining the webinar.
The global economy faces a shifting landscape marked by uncertainty and change. In this context, we’ll explore the implications of tightening monetary policies and their potential impact on markets…
buff.ly
March 3, 2025 at 8:15 PM
Join us tomorrow at 415pm ET for our monthly macro webinar. Sign up ahead to listen live and get your questions answered.
Reposted by Bond, Aussie Bond
Tariffs implemented today are just the start of suite of planned levies that would bring US tariffs to above the Smoot-Hawley days in just a few weeks.
Even with modest retaliation by trade partners, these policies are shaping up to slice 2% off US real growth.
Thread.
Even with modest retaliation by trade partners, these policies are shaping up to slice 2% off US real growth.
Thread.
March 4, 2025 at 11:11 AM
Tariffs implemented today are just the start of suite of planned levies that would bring US tariffs to above the Smoot-Hawley days in just a few weeks.
Even with modest retaliation by trade partners, these policies are shaping up to slice 2% off US real growth.
Thread.
Even with modest retaliation by trade partners, these policies are shaping up to slice 2% off US real growth.
Thread.
Reposted by Bond, Aussie Bond
Equity markets are most at risk when there are euphoric expectations and growth is likely to surprise to the downside.
Stock Market Performance and Expectations
Since the Nov 2024 election, stock market expectations have hit euphoric expectations. What has really happened in the Market? Excerpt from @TheDavidLinRepor...
buff.ly
March 4, 2025 at 4:11 PM
Equity markets are most at risk when there are euphoric expectations and growth is likely to surprise to the downside.
Reposted by Bond, Aussie Bond
President Donald Trump’s heated meeting with Ukraine’s leader has prompted Taiwan to start rethinking how it deals with the US, according to Taipei’s top defense official
Trump’s Blowup With Zelenskiy Spurs Taiwan to Rethink US Tactics
President Donald Trump’s heated meeting with Ukraine’s leader has prompted Taiwan to start rethinking how it deals with the US, according to Taipei’s top defense official.
www.bloomberg.com
March 4, 2025 at 4:25 AM
President Donald Trump’s heated meeting with Ukraine’s leader has prompted Taiwan to start rethinking how it deals with the US, according to Taipei’s top defense official
Reposted by Bond, Aussie Bond
From the Financial Times, “The rising price of butter, cheese and eggs has pushed UK food inflation to a five-month high, according to sector data that underscores persistent cost of living pressures.”
#economy #inflation #markets @financialtimes.com
#economy #inflation #markets @financialtimes.com
March 4, 2025 at 7:18 AM
From the Financial Times, “The rising price of butter, cheese and eggs has pushed UK food inflation to a five-month high, according to sector data that underscores persistent cost of living pressures.”
#economy #inflation #markets @financialtimes.com
#economy #inflation #markets @financialtimes.com
Reposted by Bond, Aussie Bond
This is going to sound weird, but for European outperformance to continue, US stocks have to NOT fall too much...
March 4, 2025 at 8:26 AM
This is going to sound weird, but for European outperformance to continue, US stocks have to NOT fall too much...
Reposted by Bond, Aussie Bond
I know people cant get past the idea of "buying more bombs", but in terms of the defence INDUSTRY - these are high productivity/high wage manufacturing jobs.. and around half of them are in maths, science, technology and engineering - with spillovers from R&D, innovation etc
March 4, 2025 at 8:33 AM
I know people cant get past the idea of "buying more bombs", but in terms of the defence INDUSTRY - these are high productivity/high wage manufacturing jobs.. and around half of them are in maths, science, technology and engineering - with spillovers from R&D, innovation etc
Reposted by Bond, Aussie Bond
While fiscal policy may be in the drivers seat, lets not forget that there has been a roughly 100bps tightening in Fed expectations for YE25 over the last couple months.
March 3, 2025 at 6:13 PM
While fiscal policy may be in the drivers seat, lets not forget that there has been a roughly 100bps tightening in Fed expectations for YE25 over the last couple months.
Reposted by Bond, Aussie Bond
America, just in case you thought Friday went well here’s how the London Times saw it …..
March 2, 2025 at 10:05 AM
America, just in case you thought Friday went well here’s how the London Times saw it …..