Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)
@fintan-smith.bsky.social
Previously: Polling things at Labour Together | Now: Data Scientist at The Labour Party | Too often confused with a dog called Fenton | Repost / like != endorsement. He / him.
Pinned
Hyper partisan content thrives on social media, increasing affective polarisation and poisoning political discourse. Our new paper @lewan.bsky.social, @almogsi.bsky.social, Dawn Holford, just out in @commspsychol.bsky.social, finds that inoculation interventions may help us tackle the problem. 🧵
Reposted by Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)
"The most common response among men aged 18-25, as with their female peers, is to state that they would never consider voting for Reform."
Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte & Emilia Belknap argue that most British young men reject the right
https://ukandeu.ac.uk/most-british-young-men-reject-the-far-right/
Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte & Emilia Belknap argue that most British young men reject the right
https://ukandeu.ac.uk/most-british-young-men-reject-the-far-right/
Most British young men reject the far right - UK in a changing Europe
Emilia Belknap and Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte explain their analysis on the demographics of Reform UK voters in the UK. They argue that while the dominant narrative is that young men are the most likely to turn to the party, the evidence does not support this.
ukandeu.ac.uk
November 1, 2025 at 4:25 PM
"The most common response among men aged 18-25, as with their female peers, is to state that they would never consider voting for Reform."
Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte & Emilia Belknap argue that most British young men reject the right
https://ukandeu.ac.uk/most-british-young-men-reject-the-far-right/
Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte & Emilia Belknap argue that most British young men reject the right
https://ukandeu.ac.uk/most-british-young-men-reject-the-far-right/
Reposted by Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)
🚨 Earth's vital signs are flashing red.
🌡️ 2024 was the hottest year in recorded history.
Read the latest Climate report from @williamripple.bsky.social and Christopher Wolf's team, published in BioScience.
oxford.ly/47i6K5j
🌡️ 2024 was the hottest year in recorded history.
Read the latest Climate report from @williamripple.bsky.social and Christopher Wolf's team, published in BioScience.
oxford.ly/47i6K5j
October 31, 2025 at 8:00 PM
🚨 Earth's vital signs are flashing red.
🌡️ 2024 was the hottest year in recorded history.
Read the latest Climate report from @williamripple.bsky.social and Christopher Wolf's team, published in BioScience.
oxford.ly/47i6K5j
🌡️ 2024 was the hottest year in recorded history.
Read the latest Climate report from @williamripple.bsky.social and Christopher Wolf's team, published in BioScience.
oxford.ly/47i6K5j
Reposted by Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)
Green party voters are the only voter group where a plurality say they have achieved less in life than they expected to when they were younger.
Happiness = reality - expectations!
Happiness = reality - expectations!
October 24, 2025 at 4:03 PM
Green party voters are the only voter group where a plurality say they have achieved less in life than they expected to when they were younger.
Happiness = reality - expectations!
Happiness = reality - expectations!
Reposted by Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)
Which means they may not be differentially mobilising voters on the right as dramatically as is assumed. Left parties still struggle to mobilise, and I constantly think of Remain voters in 2016, but the 'Reform threat' is going to be a powerful signal for them (unlike expecting Leave to lose).
October 24, 2025 at 7:44 AM
Which means they may not be differentially mobilising voters on the right as dramatically as is assumed. Left parties still struggle to mobilise, and I constantly think of Remain voters in 2016, but the 'Reform threat' is going to be a powerful signal for them (unlike expecting Leave to lose).
Reposted by Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)
Particularly notable that Reform was beaten in a high turnout election. At May's locals they seem to have benefitted from turning out people who did not vote in 2024 - looks like we're now seeing a similar turnout among more progressive voters, motivated to beat them.
Scale of Plaid win in Caerphilly is significant, not least because of what it says about the potential for progressive tactical voting in (relatively) high turnout elections to block Reform. Voters in this race knew it was a Plaid-Reform contest and voted accordingly.
October 24, 2025 at 7:46 AM
Particularly notable that Reform was beaten in a high turnout election. At May's locals they seem to have benefitted from turning out people who did not vote in 2024 - looks like we're now seeing a similar turnout among more progressive voters, motivated to beat them.
Reposted by Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)
People keep telling me the UK is so over and they're going to move to Dubai and, like, fine. Go on then. Would you like directions to the airport?
You definitely shouldn't move to Dubai, writes V&A director Tristram Hunt on.ft.com/46MfW1t
Don’t move to Dubai — this is still the place to be
[FREE TO READ] Better to buy the dip and celebrate the UK as an enduring cultural behemoth
on.ft.com
October 11, 2025 at 6:56 AM
People keep telling me the UK is so over and they're going to move to Dubai and, like, fine. Go on then. Would you like directions to the airport?
Reposted by Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)
Data is available upon request … but only in the form of one hundred non sequential 3.5” floppy disks containing a segmented zip file, inside of which are confusingly named files that can only be opened using the 1996 application StatView for Apple Mackintosh. Enclose a cashiers check for postage.
September 26, 2025 at 5:46 PM
Data is available upon request … but only in the form of one hundred non sequential 3.5” floppy disks containing a segmented zip file, inside of which are confusingly named files that can only be opened using the 1996 application StatView for Apple Mackintosh. Enclose a cashiers check for postage.
Reposted by Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)
All reminiscent of liberals’ paralysis pre-2016. Complacency + dismissive contempt for Farage + dislike of incumbents + embarrassment in defending the status quo.
Retrospectively removing indefinite leave to remain would be immoral and economically damaging. It would tear families apart.
Attacking it as ‘potentially illegal’ is completely beside the point.
Argue with the (awful) idea. Don’t try ’well, actually you can’t do that’.
Attacking it as ‘potentially illegal’ is completely beside the point.
Argue with the (awful) idea. Don’t try ’well, actually you can’t do that’.
September 22, 2025 at 8:31 AM
All reminiscent of liberals’ paralysis pre-2016. Complacency + dismissive contempt for Farage + dislike of incumbents + embarrassment in defending the status quo.
Reposted by Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)
I'm not sure this should be a 'true question' for liberals at all! Irrespective of public opinion, the liberal defends minority rights.
The true question right now is whether you believe in the moral character of the British public. If you do, you'll want to have the fight with Reform. You'll believe that the public will hate the idea of breaking up families, spying on & deporting people who've worked here for years.
September 22, 2025 at 9:28 AM
I'm not sure this should be a 'true question' for liberals at all! Irrespective of public opinion, the liberal defends minority rights.
Reposted by Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)
Feel like we should bring back the old twitter follow friday to boost good people on here who maybe didn't get an initial boost from the starter packs.
So follow @psurridge.bsky.social and @profjanegreen.bsky.social - two excellent and thoughtful political scientists.
So follow @psurridge.bsky.social and @profjanegreen.bsky.social - two excellent and thoughtful political scientists.
September 19, 2025 at 12:16 PM
Feel like we should bring back the old twitter follow friday to boost good people on here who maybe didn't get an initial boost from the starter packs.
So follow @psurridge.bsky.social and @profjanegreen.bsky.social - two excellent and thoughtful political scientists.
So follow @psurridge.bsky.social and @profjanegreen.bsky.social - two excellent and thoughtful political scientists.
Reposted by Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)
Constantly amazed at the desperation to make “young men love Reform a thing”, despite all evidence to contrary
September 14, 2025 at 6:34 AM
Constantly amazed at the desperation to make “young men love Reform a thing”, despite all evidence to contrary
Reposted by Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)
I don't disagree with the first two sentences, but I think in general there's been far too much movement from 'not really noticing the problem' to 'despair'. Let's experiment with 'people and organisations try and enforce the norm' and then see if it is actually hard for it to be re-bottled.
I worry that the decades it took to build anti-racism norms are unravelling quite quickly. Clearly the protests/social media drumbeat has created a permission structure that makes people think they can behave like this. Hard to see how it can be easily re-bottled.
Sickening footage from Nuneaton tonight, where a Sky News interview with a local businessman was disrupted by racists hurling abuse.
Another local said, "Warwickshire Council Council has gone to Reform... It's given certain people a licence to be aggressive and racist."
Another local said, "Warwickshire Council Council has gone to Reform... It's given certain people a licence to be aggressive and racist."
September 1, 2025 at 11:18 PM
I don't disagree with the first two sentences, but I think in general there's been far too much movement from 'not really noticing the problem' to 'despair'. Let's experiment with 'people and organisations try and enforce the norm' and then see if it is actually hard for it to be re-bottled.
Reposted by Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)
The story of the weekend looks like about 3000+ people protesting asylum, 2000+ counterprotestors while 210k people do parkrun
August 23, 2025 at 12:51 PM
The story of the weekend looks like about 3000+ people protesting asylum, 2000+ counterprotestors while 210k people do parkrun
Reposted by Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)
I suppose this is the point when I should say again that:
the amount of money the videogames industry brings into the UK economy every year is *more than double* the value of the fishing and steel industries *combined*
what this country is really good at is producing culture
the amount of money the videogames industry brings into the UK economy every year is *more than double* the value of the fishing and steel industries *combined*
what this country is really good at is producing culture
yes. yes yes.
the UK is (not just the originator but) the setting for some of the most popular culture in the world. there is a whole genre of videogames that are set in an imagined Britain. 'soft' power is real economic and even political power.
the UK is (not just the originator but) the setting for some of the most popular culture in the world. there is a whole genre of videogames that are set in an imagined Britain. 'soft' power is real economic and even political power.
Agree. One thing that I really liked about @jpspencer.bsky.social’s Labour Together report is it included culture in “growth spending”. So much policy about regional development in the UK basically regards culture, tourism, etc. as distractions from the real work of building trains to nowhere.
August 17, 2025 at 7:18 AM
I suppose this is the point when I should say again that:
the amount of money the videogames industry brings into the UK economy every year is *more than double* the value of the fishing and steel industries *combined*
what this country is really good at is producing culture
the amount of money the videogames industry brings into the UK economy every year is *more than double* the value of the fishing and steel industries *combined*
what this country is really good at is producing culture
Reposted by Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)
This would be a strong entry in normal years, but unfortunately for Maurice, the bar for “vapid and useless suggestions to the UK’s soluble problems” is now set at “remigration”. Good luck in next year’s tournament, Mo!
This smacks of performative self-satire
August 16, 2025 at 9:46 AM
This would be a strong entry in normal years, but unfortunately for Maurice, the bar for “vapid and useless suggestions to the UK’s soluble problems” is now set at “remigration”. Good luck in next year’s tournament, Mo!
Reposted by Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)
I spent the day with Curtis Yarvin and the "dissident right" at a garden party in Surrey and wrote quite a few words about it.
My cover story for today’s FT Magazine
on.ft.com/4ooXS4t [GIFT LINK! 🎁]
My cover story for today’s FT Magazine
on.ft.com/4ooXS4t [GIFT LINK! 🎁]
Sunday at the garden party for Curtis Yarvin and the new, new right
[FREE TO READ] What you learn at a gathering of neoreactionaries, Very Online rightwingers and the formerly cancelled
on.ft.com
August 9, 2025 at 8:26 AM
I spent the day with Curtis Yarvin and the "dissident right" at a garden party in Surrey and wrote quite a few words about it.
My cover story for today’s FT Magazine
on.ft.com/4ooXS4t [GIFT LINK! 🎁]
My cover story for today’s FT Magazine
on.ft.com/4ooXS4t [GIFT LINK! 🎁]
Reposted by Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)
New post:
"The Radicalisation Spiral"
Why are so many people becoming radicalised? Is there any way to stop it?
With an antivaxxer running the US health dept + extreme discourse dominating politics it's an increasingly pressing question.
(£/free trial)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...
"The Radicalisation Spiral"
Why are so many people becoming radicalised? Is there any way to stop it?
With an antivaxxer running the US health dept + extreme discourse dominating politics it's an increasingly pressing question.
(£/free trial)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...
The radicalisation spiral
Why does it happen and can it be stopped?
open.substack.com
August 2, 2025 at 8:09 AM
New post:
"The Radicalisation Spiral"
Why are so many people becoming radicalised? Is there any way to stop it?
With an antivaxxer running the US health dept + extreme discourse dominating politics it's an increasingly pressing question.
(£/free trial)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...
"The Radicalisation Spiral"
Why are so many people becoming radicalised? Is there any way to stop it?
With an antivaxxer running the US health dept + extreme discourse dominating politics it's an increasingly pressing question.
(£/free trial)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...
Reposted by Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)
4 year olds verdict on rural streets: “It’s not ideal there’s no pavement. When people wake up here they need to remember there’s no safe place for buggies.”
July 31, 2025 at 8:35 AM
4 year olds verdict on rural streets: “It’s not ideal there’s no pavement. When people wake up here they need to remember there’s no safe place for buggies.”
Reposted by Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)
New post just out:
"Britain isn't broken"
We have our problems but the doomerism is getting out of hand.
I look at the real picture on crime, migration, social cohesion and the economy - rather than the dsyoptian fantasies of the radical right.
(£/free trial)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/b...
"Britain isn't broken"
We have our problems but the doomerism is getting out of hand.
I look at the real picture on crime, migration, social cohesion and the economy - rather than the dsyoptian fantasies of the radical right.
(£/free trial)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/b...
Britain isn't broken
We have our problems but the doomerism is getting out of hand
open.substack.com
July 27, 2025 at 8:07 AM
New post just out:
"Britain isn't broken"
We have our problems but the doomerism is getting out of hand.
I look at the real picture on crime, migration, social cohesion and the economy - rather than the dsyoptian fantasies of the radical right.
(£/free trial)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/b...
"Britain isn't broken"
We have our problems but the doomerism is getting out of hand.
I look at the real picture on crime, migration, social cohesion and the economy - rather than the dsyoptian fantasies of the radical right.
(£/free trial)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/b...
Reposted by Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)
How many Britons believe in supernatural creatures or phenomenon?
Hypnotism: 60% say definitely/probably real
Karma: 38%
Ghosts: 38%
Telepathy: 30%
Reiki: 30%
Astrology: 23%
Witches: 21%
Speaking to dead: 20%
Magic: 19%
Crystal healing: 17%
Loch Ness monster: 12%
Vampires: 8%
Werewolves: 8%
Hypnotism: 60% say definitely/probably real
Karma: 38%
Ghosts: 38%
Telepathy: 30%
Reiki: 30%
Astrology: 23%
Witches: 21%
Speaking to dead: 20%
Magic: 19%
Crystal healing: 17%
Loch Ness monster: 12%
Vampires: 8%
Werewolves: 8%
July 22, 2025 at 9:47 AM
How many Britons believe in supernatural creatures or phenomenon?
Hypnotism: 60% say definitely/probably real
Karma: 38%
Ghosts: 38%
Telepathy: 30%
Reiki: 30%
Astrology: 23%
Witches: 21%
Speaking to dead: 20%
Magic: 19%
Crystal healing: 17%
Loch Ness monster: 12%
Vampires: 8%
Werewolves: 8%
Hypnotism: 60% say definitely/probably real
Karma: 38%
Ghosts: 38%
Telepathy: 30%
Reiki: 30%
Astrology: 23%
Witches: 21%
Speaking to dead: 20%
Magic: 19%
Crystal healing: 17%
Loch Ness monster: 12%
Vampires: 8%
Werewolves: 8%
Reposted by Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)
Not impossible you could get to a place where both Reform and Tories are proposing to get rid of the triple lock and Labour keeping it despite being third in the pensioner vote.
THE i PAPER: Rise in state pension age beyond 68 is 'inevitable', warns Farage - as future of triple lock in doubt #TomorrowsPapersToday
July 21, 2025 at 9:02 PM
Not impossible you could get to a place where both Reform and Tories are proposing to get rid of the triple lock and Labour keeping it despite being third in the pensioner vote.
Reposted by Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)
This is about as comprehensive as you could want from Patrick English on the voting intentions of 16/17-yr-olds patrickenglish.substack.com/p/reform-and...
Reform and young people in the context of votes at 16
Anecdotes may claim rising support for the right among the British youth, but is that so?
patrickenglish.substack.com
July 20, 2025 at 8:07 PM
This is about as comprehensive as you could want from Patrick English on the voting intentions of 16/17-yr-olds patrickenglish.substack.com/p/reform-and...
Reposted by Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)
🚨🚨NEW🚨🚨
On my Substack, I examine differences in the political values of 18–30-year-old men and women using European Social Survey (ESS) data.
As others have noted, young women are becoming more left-liberal than young men.
But then I find something curious...
1/6
On my Substack, I examine differences in the political values of 18–30-year-old men and women using European Social Survey (ESS) data.
As others have noted, young women are becoming more left-liberal than young men.
But then I find something curious...
1/6
July 10, 2025 at 7:07 PM
🚨🚨NEW🚨🚨
On my Substack, I examine differences in the political values of 18–30-year-old men and women using European Social Survey (ESS) data.
As others have noted, young women are becoming more left-liberal than young men.
But then I find something curious...
1/6
On my Substack, I examine differences in the political values of 18–30-year-old men and women using European Social Survey (ESS) data.
As others have noted, young women are becoming more left-liberal than young men.
But then I find something curious...
1/6
Reposted by Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)
Very clear explainer from MHCLG on the detail behind the 340 page English Devolution and Community Empowerment Bill.
There will be lots of analysis over the coming days and weeks, but it is safe to say that this is a huge step forward in giving power to places.
www.gov.uk/government/p...
There will be lots of analysis over the coming days and weeks, but it is safe to say that this is a huge step forward in giving power to places.
www.gov.uk/government/p...
English Devolution and Community Empowerment Bill: Guidance
www.gov.uk
July 10, 2025 at 3:51 PM
Very clear explainer from MHCLG on the detail behind the 340 page English Devolution and Community Empowerment Bill.
There will be lots of analysis over the coming days and weeks, but it is safe to say that this is a huge step forward in giving power to places.
www.gov.uk/government/p...
There will be lots of analysis over the coming days and weeks, but it is safe to say that this is a huge step forward in giving power to places.
www.gov.uk/government/p...
Reposted by Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)
Sure Start was one of the biggest achievements of the last Labour government. Until it was gutted over the last 14 years.
Evaluation by the @theifs.bsky.social found huge benefits to the programme.
This included higher educational attainment, increased wages and lower hospitalisations.
1/2
Evaluation by the @theifs.bsky.social found huge benefits to the programme.
This included higher educational attainment, increased wages and lower hospitalisations.
1/2
Children growing up in our country deserve the best start in life.
Building on the legacy of Sure Start, we’re opening Best Start Family Hubs in every local authority.
That’s the difference Labour makes.
www.theguardian.com/society/2025...
Building on the legacy of Sure Start, we’re opening Best Start Family Hubs in every local authority.
That’s the difference Labour makes.
www.theguardian.com/society/2025...
One-stop family hubs to be opened in all English council areas
Government announces £500m project to provide single-point of access for health, education and wellbeing services
www.theguardian.com
July 7, 2025 at 10:05 AM
Sure Start was one of the biggest achievements of the last Labour government. Until it was gutted over the last 14 years.
Evaluation by the @theifs.bsky.social found huge benefits to the programme.
This included higher educational attainment, increased wages and lower hospitalisations.
1/2
Evaluation by the @theifs.bsky.social found huge benefits to the programme.
This included higher educational attainment, increased wages and lower hospitalisations.
1/2