Florian Gawehns
@fgawehns.bsky.social
2025/26 APSA Congressional Fellow. PhD @ University of Maryland & Lecturer at American University. Researching Congress and foreign policy.
Reposted by Florian Gawehns
Maine's four-person Congressional delegation is one of the smallest in the country. Yet their mixed votes on the bill to reopen the government reflect the national divide over the fraught issue. n.pr/4p5VEpY
The deal to end the shutdown exposed rifts among Democrats. Just ask Maine
Maine's four-person Congressional delegation is one of the smallest in the country. Yet their mixed votes on the bill to reopen the government reflect the national divide over the fraught issue.
n.pr
November 15, 2025 at 10:10 AM
Maine's four-person Congressional delegation is one of the smallest in the country. Yet their mixed votes on the bill to reopen the government reflect the national divide over the fraught issue. n.pr/4p5VEpY
Reposted by Florian Gawehns
On passage of the CR in the House: All Republicans "aye" except (voting nay):
Thomas Massie (KY)
Gregory Steube (FL)
All Democrats "nay" except (voting aye)
Henry Cuellar (TX)
Donald Davis (NC)
Jared Golden (ME)
Adam Gray (CA)
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (WA)
Thomas Suozzi (NY)
Thomas Massie (KY)
Gregory Steube (FL)
All Democrats "nay" except (voting aye)
Henry Cuellar (TX)
Donald Davis (NC)
Jared Golden (ME)
Adam Gray (CA)
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (WA)
Thomas Suozzi (NY)
November 13, 2025 at 1:50 AM
On passage of the CR in the House: All Republicans "aye" except (voting nay):
Thomas Massie (KY)
Gregory Steube (FL)
All Democrats "nay" except (voting aye)
Henry Cuellar (TX)
Donald Davis (NC)
Jared Golden (ME)
Adam Gray (CA)
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (WA)
Thomas Suozzi (NY)
Thomas Massie (KY)
Gregory Steube (FL)
All Democrats "nay" except (voting aye)
Henry Cuellar (TX)
Donald Davis (NC)
Jared Golden (ME)
Adam Gray (CA)
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (WA)
Thomas Suozzi (NY)
Will be watching how many Dems vote yes, and how many Rs vote no. Of the ten members of the Blue Dog Coalition, only Rep. Mike Thompson came out against the deal so far.
A vote in the House expected on Wednesday could end what is now the longest shutdown on record. Democrats are decrying the plan, saying it fails to address expiring health care subsidies. n.pr/49LUSKf
On day 43 of the shutdown, a vote in the House could bring the impasse to an end
A vote in the House expected on Wednesday could end what is now the longest shutdown on record. Democrats are decrying the plan, saying it fails to address expiring health care subsidies.
n.pr
November 12, 2025 at 1:44 PM
Will be watching how many Dems vote yes, and how many Rs vote no. Of the ten members of the Blue Dog Coalition, only Rep. Mike Thompson came out against the deal so far.
Reposted by Florian Gawehns
so currently defectors are:
Kaine (2030)
Shaheen (Retiring)
Hasan (2028)
Fetterman (2028)
Durbin (Retiring)
CCM (2028)
Rosen (2030)
King (2030)
Kaine (2030)
Shaheen (Retiring)
Hasan (2028)
Fetterman (2028)
Durbin (Retiring)
CCM (2028)
Rosen (2030)
King (2030)
November 10, 2025 at 1:52 AM
so currently defectors are:
Kaine (2030)
Shaheen (Retiring)
Hasan (2028)
Fetterman (2028)
Durbin (Retiring)
CCM (2028)
Rosen (2030)
King (2030)
Kaine (2030)
Shaheen (Retiring)
Hasan (2028)
Fetterman (2028)
Durbin (Retiring)
CCM (2028)
Rosen (2030)
King (2030)
Reposted by Florian Gawehns
I wonder to what extent senators who are retiring or are far away from primaries agreed to vote for the CR/minibus so that their colleagues, like Sen. Schumer, could vote against.
November 10, 2025 at 1:31 AM
I wonder to what extent senators who are retiring or are far away from primaries agreed to vote for the CR/minibus so that their colleagues, like Sen. Schumer, could vote against.
Reposted by Florian Gawehns
What's in the Continuing Resolution/ Minibus deal for the Legislative branch? I crunched the numbers, read the bill, and analyzed the committee report. Here's a quick analysis--with the hope that 'quick' and 'analysis' is not an oxymoron.
Key takeaway: it doesn't protect the power of the purse.
Key takeaway: it doesn't protect the power of the purse.
What's in the CR Deal for Congress?
With a vote as early as tonight, we quickly ran the numbers
firstbranchforecast.substack.com
November 10, 2025 at 12:56 AM
What's in the Continuing Resolution/ Minibus deal for the Legislative branch? I crunched the numbers, read the bill, and analyzed the committee report. Here's a quick analysis--with the hope that 'quick' and 'analysis' is not an oxymoron.
Key takeaway: it doesn't protect the power of the purse.
Key takeaway: it doesn't protect the power of the purse.
Reposted by Florian Gawehns
"Golden got it. Our electoral rules are obsolete. He understood why representatives who don’t fit easily into either party are so rare: the electoral system works against them."
leedrutman.substack.com/p/politics-k...
leedrutman.substack.com/p/politics-k...
Politics Keeps Driving Out the People Who Want to Reform It
Jared Golden is the latest problem-solving politician to decide Congress isn’t worth the cost. And so the doom loop takes another turn.
leedrutman.substack.com
November 7, 2025 at 1:38 PM
"Golden got it. Our electoral rules are obsolete. He understood why representatives who don’t fit easily into either party are so rare: the electoral system works against them."
leedrutman.substack.com/p/politics-k...
leedrutman.substack.com/p/politics-k...
Reposted by Florian Gawehns
More on diagnosing American politics, and why I am skeptical of simplistic messaging/organizing prescriptions.
Presidents Shape Parties More than Parties Shape Presidents – Outside the Beltway outsidethebeltway.com/presidents-s...
Presidents Shape Parties More than Parties Shape Presidents – Outside the Beltway outsidethebeltway.com/presidents-s...
October 28, 2025 at 2:22 PM
More on diagnosing American politics, and why I am skeptical of simplistic messaging/organizing prescriptions.
Presidents Shape Parties More than Parties Shape Presidents – Outside the Beltway outsidethebeltway.com/presidents-s...
Presidents Shape Parties More than Parties Shape Presidents – Outside the Beltway outsidethebeltway.com/presidents-s...
Reposted by Florian Gawehns
I haven't spent a ton of time working through this, but it draws heavily on national party insights to make recommendations for Dem candidates... who are already doing these things?
Over three-quarters of Ds discuss economics, healthcare etc....
campaignview.org
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Over three-quarters of Ds discuss economics, healthcare etc....
campaignview.org
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
October 27, 2025 at 7:03 PM
I haven't spent a ton of time working through this, but it draws heavily on national party insights to make recommendations for Dem candidates... who are already doing these things?
Over three-quarters of Ds discuss economics, healthcare etc....
campaignview.org
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Over three-quarters of Ds discuss economics, healthcare etc....
campaignview.org
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Reposted by Florian Gawehns
#OpenAccess from August 2025 -
Principled Pragmatism: Big Business and Campaign Contributions After January 6 - cup.org/4l99G7Z
- @amydmeli.bsky.social & @fgawehns.bsky.social
#Jan6
Principled Pragmatism: Big Business and Campaign Contributions After January 6 - cup.org/4l99G7Z
- @amydmeli.bsky.social & @fgawehns.bsky.social
#Jan6
October 13, 2025 at 11:30 AM
#OpenAccess from August 2025 -
Principled Pragmatism: Big Business and Campaign Contributions After January 6 - cup.org/4l99G7Z
- @amydmeli.bsky.social & @fgawehns.bsky.social
#Jan6
Principled Pragmatism: Big Business and Campaign Contributions After January 6 - cup.org/4l99G7Z
- @amydmeli.bsky.social & @fgawehns.bsky.social
#Jan6
Reposted by Florian Gawehns
New paper with @hjghassell.bsky.social and @michaelheseltine.bsky.social out in @bjpols.bsky.social.
We develop measures of voter perceptions of candidate ideology and candidate messaging ideology and find that perception's are related to what candidates say www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
We develop measures of voter perceptions of candidate ideology and candidate messaging ideology and find that perception's are related to what candidates say www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
October 3, 2025 at 12:27 PM
New paper with @hjghassell.bsky.social and @michaelheseltine.bsky.social out in @bjpols.bsky.social.
We develop measures of voter perceptions of candidate ideology and candidate messaging ideology and find that perception's are related to what candidates say www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
We develop measures of voter perceptions of candidate ideology and candidate messaging ideology and find that perception's are related to what candidates say www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
For the first time ever, Democratic members of Congress are starting to use "overreach" in their constituent newsletters. Republicans very prolific - when they're in the opposition.
September 8, 2025 at 3:40 PM
For the first time ever, Democratic members of Congress are starting to use "overreach" in their constituent newsletters. Republicans very prolific - when they're in the opposition.
Reposted by Florian Gawehns
Delighted to discover that "Candidate Positions, Responsiveness, and Returns to Extremism" is now available online from JOP 🧵
@thejop.bsky.social
Gated: journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
Ungated: mellissameisels.com/files/MM_PCP...
@thejop.bsky.social
Gated: journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
Ungated: mellissameisels.com/files/MM_PCP...
September 6, 2025 at 7:16 PM
Delighted to discover that "Candidate Positions, Responsiveness, and Returns to Extremism" is now available online from JOP 🧵
@thejop.bsky.social
Gated: journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
Ungated: mellissameisels.com/files/MM_PCP...
@thejop.bsky.social
Gated: journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
Ungated: mellissameisels.com/files/MM_PCP...
Reposted by Florian Gawehns
We will accept submissions to the American Trade Policy in the 21st Century special issue until September 1st! An exception for one is an exception for all. #polisky #academisky
Learn more here: apsanet.org/publications...
Learn more here: apsanet.org/publications...
August 12, 2025 at 4:41 PM
We will accept submissions to the American Trade Policy in the 21st Century special issue until September 1st! An exception for one is an exception for all. #polisky #academisky
Learn more here: apsanet.org/publications...
Learn more here: apsanet.org/publications...
Reposted by Florian Gawehns
Republican open House seats are tracking the massive 2020 and 2018 years so far. Notably all but one of this year's open GOP seats is due to the member running for Senate or governor. 1/2
Data: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Data: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
August 13, 2025 at 5:52 PM
Republican open House seats are tracking the massive 2020 and 2018 years so far. Notably all but one of this year's open GOP seats is due to the member running for Senate or governor. 1/2
Data: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Data: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Reposted by Florian Gawehns
Big update to @upshot.nytimes.com 2024 precinct map. Now includes most of CA and CO.
The @nytimes.com just posted an updated version of their detailed map of the 2024 election results, with the data available for download. This is invaluable in part because funding constraints have slowed down academic efforts at releasing precinct-level results. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
An Extremely Detailed Map of the 2024 Election
See how your neighborhood voted on our interactive, precinct-level results map of the presidential election.
www.nytimes.com
August 13, 2025 at 2:44 PM
Big update to @upshot.nytimes.com 2024 precinct map. Now includes most of CA and CO.
Use of "tariffs" in congressional e-newsletters suggests halfhearted Dem messaging on the topic.
August 12, 2025 at 8:04 PM
Use of "tariffs" in congressional e-newsletters suggests halfhearted Dem messaging on the topic.
Reposted by Florian Gawehns
I think Altman assumes that “PhD-level expert” means someone who speaks confidently on everything as opposed to saying “it’s nuanced,” losing their keys, and getting maniacally fixated on their current topic to the point of seeing it in everything.
“GPT-5 is the first time that it feels like talking to an expert in any topic — a Ph.D.-level expert,” OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said.
(real, one-shot :p )
August 7, 2025 at 9:14 PM
I think Altman assumes that “PhD-level expert” means someone who speaks confidently on everything as opposed to saying “it’s nuanced,” losing their keys, and getting maniacally fixated on their current topic to the point of seeing it in everything.
Lots of variation among vulnerable Senate Dems in their propensity to vote with Rs on anything.
August 3, 2025 at 9:30 PM
Lots of variation among vulnerable Senate Dems in their propensity to vote with Rs on anything.
New in BJPS: @amydmeli.bsky.social and I investigate how Fortune 500 companies changed their 💰 after Jan 6. We find that they balance the interests of their two audiences by sending signals of disapproval towards those who violate established norms while continuing to lobby key lawmakers.
NEW -
Principled Pragmatism: Big Business and Campaign Contributions After January 6 - cup.org/4l99G7Z
- @amydmeli.bsky.social & @fgawehns.bsky.social
#OpenAccess #Jan6
Principled Pragmatism: Big Business and Campaign Contributions After January 6 - cup.org/4l99G7Z
- @amydmeli.bsky.social & @fgawehns.bsky.social
#OpenAccess #Jan6
August 1, 2025 at 2:56 PM
New in BJPS: @amydmeli.bsky.social and I investigate how Fortune 500 companies changed their 💰 after Jan 6. We find that they balance the interests of their two audiences by sending signals of disapproval towards those who violate established norms while continuing to lobby key lawmakers.
Reposted by Florian Gawehns
From @gallup.com: "Americans' average confidence in major U.S. institutions is unchanged since last year, with a near-record-low 28% of U.S. adults expressing 'a great deal' or 'quite a lot' of confidence in nine institutions tracked consistently since 1979." news.gallup.com/poll/692633/...
July 17, 2025 at 12:34 PM
From @gallup.com: "Americans' average confidence in major U.S. institutions is unchanged since last year, with a near-record-low 28% of U.S. adults expressing 'a great deal' or 'quite a lot' of confidence in nine institutions tracked consistently since 1979." news.gallup.com/poll/692633/...
Dissertation: Defended ✅😊
July 16, 2025 at 6:09 PM
Dissertation: Defended ✅😊
Interest groups regularly rate lawmakers on issue positions. On Ukraine, GOP members' ratings correlate with their general roll-call ideology on both DW-NOMINATE dimensions (0.66). In contrast, smaller effects for district-level partisanship and seniority, no independent effect for HFC members.
July 7, 2025 at 4:35 PM
Interest groups regularly rate lawmakers on issue positions. On Ukraine, GOP members' ratings correlate with their general roll-call ideology on both DW-NOMINATE dimensions (0.66). In contrast, smaller effects for district-level partisanship and seniority, no independent effect for HFC members.
Reposted by Florian Gawehns
Some thoughts on @goodauth.bsky.social on the war powers. Alternate title: So Much for That Nobel Peace Prize...
goodauthority.org/news/trump-i...
goodauthority.org/news/trump-i...
U.S. war powers and Congressional (ir)resolution
Some answers to all the many questions about Trump and Iran.
goodauthority.org
June 23, 2025 at 2:28 PM
Some thoughts on @goodauth.bsky.social on the war powers. Alternate title: So Much for That Nobel Peace Prize...
goodauthority.org/news/trump-i...
goodauthority.org/news/trump-i...
It's Schrödinger's War Powers again. Congressional authorization is constitutionally mandated, but also completely optional.
Senator Ted Cruz 2013 on Obama attacking Syria:
"The residual presidential authority to act militarily in the absence of a declaration of war is based on an imminent, direct threat to the United States."
"[Acting] would be contrary to the Constitution"
Senator Cruz 2025 on Trump attacking Iran:
"The residual presidential authority to act militarily in the absence of a declaration of war is based on an imminent, direct threat to the United States."
"[Acting] would be contrary to the Constitution"
Senator Cruz 2025 on Trump attacking Iran:
June 18, 2025 at 11:18 PM
It's Schrödinger's War Powers again. Congressional authorization is constitutionally mandated, but also completely optional.