Florian Gawehns
@fgawehns.bsky.social
2025/26 APSA Congressional Fellow. PhD @ University of Maryland & Lecturer at American University. Researching Congress and foreign policy.
It's effectiveness has been proven by the experts...
October 31, 2025 at 7:26 PM
It's effectiveness has been proven by the experts...
For the first time ever, Democratic members of Congress are starting to use "overreach" in their constituent newsletters. Republicans very prolific - when they're in the opposition.
September 8, 2025 at 3:40 PM
For the first time ever, Democratic members of Congress are starting to use "overreach" in their constituent newsletters. Republicans very prolific - when they're in the opposition.
Republicans in general are much more likely to mention foreign adversaries.
August 26, 2025 at 5:47 PM
Republicans in general are much more likely to mention foreign adversaries.
Yet Dems' messaging is lukewarm at best. Why?
August 14, 2025 at 4:02 PM
Yet Dems' messaging is lukewarm at best. Why?
Use of "tariffs" in congressional e-newsletters suggests halfhearted Dem messaging on the topic.
August 12, 2025 at 8:04 PM
Use of "tariffs" in congressional e-newsletters suggests halfhearted Dem messaging on the topic.
Lots of variation among vulnerable Senate Dems in their propensity to vote with Rs on anything.
August 3, 2025 at 9:30 PM
Lots of variation among vulnerable Senate Dems in their propensity to vote with Rs on anything.
In the House, both parties have the same median age, but 25% of Dems are older than 70.
July 20, 2025 at 7:44 PM
In the House, both parties have the same median age, but 25% of Dems are older than 70.
Interest groups regularly rate lawmakers on issue positions. On Ukraine, GOP members' ratings correlate with their general roll-call ideology on both DW-NOMINATE dimensions (0.66). In contrast, smaller effects for district-level partisanship and seniority, no independent effect for HFC members.
July 7, 2025 at 4:35 PM
Interest groups regularly rate lawmakers on issue positions. On Ukraine, GOP members' ratings correlate with their general roll-call ideology on both DW-NOMINATE dimensions (0.66). In contrast, smaller effects for district-level partisanship and seniority, no independent effect for HFC members.
The "squads" voting behavior is confusing NOMINATE again. Here are the members who are much more "moderate" than their district partisanship would suggest. It's based on Nokken-Poole scores for the 119th, which are calculated new for every Congress. Not a holdover from past Congresses.
May 1, 2025 at 4:56 PM
The "squads" voting behavior is confusing NOMINATE again. Here are the members who are much more "moderate" than their district partisanship would suggest. It's based on Nokken-Poole scores for the 119th, which are calculated new for every Congress. Not a holdover from past Congresses.
In American politics, one is used to see swings of two percentage points as meaningful change. Meanwhile other democracies see swings of 20 points in a matter of weeks. Elections in the rest of the world become more volatile, not less.
April 29, 2025 at 7:40 PM
In American politics, one is used to see swings of two percentage points as meaningful change. Meanwhile other democracies see swings of 20 points in a matter of weeks. Elections in the rest of the world become more volatile, not less.
FPTP can create wide disparities between seat and vote share. In 11 of the 21 states I could easily access the data for, Rs seat % is lower than their share of the vote in 2024 state elections. In two cases (NV, NC), FPTP inverted the winner! Electoral reform should be a bipartisan issue.
April 28, 2025 at 7:48 PM
FPTP can create wide disparities between seat and vote share. In 11 of the 21 states I could easily access the data for, Rs seat % is lower than their share of the vote in 2024 state elections. In two cases (NV, NC), FPTP inverted the winner! Electoral reform should be a bipartisan issue.
In 2025, roll-call votes in the Senate have on average been *more* partisan than in the House due to several near-unanimous House votes. Senate's median # of yes votes is 52, average is 55. In the House, median is 220 and average 278.
April 27, 2025 at 2:02 PM
In 2025, roll-call votes in the Senate have on average been *more* partisan than in the House due to several near-unanimous House votes. Senate's median # of yes votes is 52, average is 55. In the House, median is 220 and average 278.
Correlation between seniority and NOMINATE (1st dimension) among Republicans is -0.24 (-.0.18 for Dems), with longer serving members being more moderate. Among Dems it's the opposite! Longer serving D Members are somewhat more liberal (aka more ideologically "extreme").
April 10, 2025 at 9:36 PM
Correlation between seniority and NOMINATE (1st dimension) among Republicans is -0.24 (-.0.18 for Dems), with longer serving members being more moderate. Among Dems it's the opposite! Longer serving D Members are somewhat more liberal (aka more ideologically "extreme").
This is out of Kernell et al.'s newest edition of "The Logic of American Politics" textbook I assign regularly in Intro to US Politics. Caption says "Some congressional districts do not hesitate to send and return ideologues to Congress" It suggests equivalence where there is none.
March 11, 2025 at 6:15 PM
This is out of Kernell et al.'s newest edition of "The Logic of American Politics" textbook I assign regularly in Intro to US Politics. Caption says "Some congressional districts do not hesitate to send and return ideologues to Congress" It suggests equivalence where there is none.
BUT maybe we're underestimating pre-existing trends here... voting patterns already diverge before WW II
February 24, 2025 at 4:14 PM
BUT maybe we're underestimating pre-existing trends here... voting patterns already diverge before WW II
The House vote to establish the Department of Education in 1979 was 215-201, with most Republicans in opposition. The 1980 GOP platform called for the elimination of the Department of Education, but it was dropped from the 1984 platform.
February 4, 2025 at 6:37 PM
The House vote to establish the Department of Education in 1979 was 215-201, with most Republicans in opposition. The 1980 GOP platform called for the elimination of the Department of Education, but it was dropped from the 1984 platform.
Who are the 112 Rs voting against expelling Santos? 39/42 HFC members (all but Buck, Green, Murphy), and 71/115 Jan6 objectors. Entire leadership against. 69/90 who voted against the short-term funding bill also voted against expelling Santos.
December 1, 2023 at 6:29 PM
Who are the 112 Rs voting against expelling Santos? 39/42 HFC members (all but Buck, Green, Murphy), and 71/115 Jan6 objectors. Entire leadership against. 69/90 who voted against the short-term funding bill also voted against expelling Santos.
Neither district partisanship nor being a January 6 objector are significant predictors for the Jordan vote (House Republicans only). Including a dummy for competitive districts will yield a significant result though.
October 18, 2023 at 1:20 AM
Neither district partisanship nor being a January 6 objector are significant predictors for the Jordan vote (House Republicans only). Including a dummy for competitive districts will yield a significant result though.
Interestingly, district partisanship is not significant. A dummy for "competitive" districts (not shown here) is though.
October 18, 2023 at 12:52 AM
Interestingly, district partisanship is not significant. A dummy for "competitive" districts (not shown here) is though.
Interesting book project! I wrote a paper (not published yet) in which I found the seditionists to use more radical language on Twitter (117th Congress seen here) than other Republicans.
October 5, 2023 at 7:52 PM
Interesting book project! I wrote a paper (not published yet) in which I found the seditionists to use more radical language on Twitter (117th Congress seen here) than other Republicans.
