Frederik A. H. Pedersen
@fahpedersen.bsky.social
Army Officer. Previously @ Princeton. Latest publication: "Narrow windows of opportunity: the limited utility of cyber operations in war" (https://doi.org/10.1093/cybsec/tyae014)
Pinned
Narrow windows of opportunity: the limited utility of cyber operations in war
Abstract. The use of offensive cyber operations in war is no longer theoretical conjecture. Still, as we witness their use, important questions remain. How
doi.org
How much do offensive cyber ops really matter for conventional warfare?
Using data from Ukraine, we found that it's tough for cyber ops to significantly impact warfighting — as we published last year.
A year on, little has changed.
doi.org/10.1093/cybs...
Using data from Ukraine, we found that it's tough for cyber ops to significantly impact warfighting — as we published last year.
A year on, little has changed.
doi.org/10.1093/cybs...
Reposted by Frederik A. H. Pedersen
If the US wants to sanction an EU Commissioner for work he did to restrict the spread of extremism in the EU then that is a decision that must have consequences, incl reciprocal denial of visas - not least for the leaders of tech companies who lobby the White House to undermine the EU / EU law
France foreign minister: ‘France strongly condemns the visa restriction imposed by the United States against Thierry Breton, former minister and European Commissioner, and 4 other European figures. The Digital Services Act (DSA) was democratically adopted in Europe so that what
December 23, 2025 at 11:07 PM
If the US wants to sanction an EU Commissioner for work he did to restrict the spread of extremism in the EU then that is a decision that must have consequences, incl reciprocal denial of visas - not least for the leaders of tech companies who lobby the White House to undermine the EU / EU law
Reposted by Frederik A. H. Pedersen
What if they constantly want culture war because policy war is complicated and hard and culture war is stupid and easy
Marco Rubio ordered diplomats to return to using Times New Roman font in official communications, calling his predecessor's decision to adopt Calibri a “wasteful” diversity move
Rubio Stages Font Coup: Times New Roman Ousts Calibri
The secretary of state called it a "wasteful" diversity move, according to an internal department cable seen by Reuters.
www.huffpost.com
December 10, 2025 at 7:11 PM
What if they constantly want culture war because policy war is complicated and hard and culture war is stupid and easy
Reposted by Frederik A. H. Pedersen
The new National Security Strategy is a propaganda document, designed to be widely read. It is also a performative suicide. Hard to think of another great power ever abdicating its influence so quickly and so publicly. It will be worth following the reactions around the world, not just in Europe.
Trump's national security strategy is out and some of the Europe sections are shocking. "...the growing influence of patriotic European parties indeed
gives cause for great optimism."
www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...
gives cause for great optimism."
www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...
December 5, 2025 at 12:17 PM
The new National Security Strategy is a propaganda document, designed to be widely read. It is also a performative suicide. Hard to think of another great power ever abdicating its influence so quickly and so publicly. It will be worth following the reactions around the world, not just in Europe.
Reposted by Frederik A. H. Pedersen
Holy moly, do people still think the U.S. is an ally of Europe? It is now an officially stated foreign policy goal to undermine the EU and centrist European governments that don't ideologically align with MAGA.
Europeans are waking up this morning to find the new US National Security Strategy (quietly) released. And what it has to say on Europe could not be clearer. On the „stark prospect of civilizations erasure“ for example. 👇
December 5, 2025 at 5:42 AM
Holy moly, do people still think the U.S. is an ally of Europe? It is now an officially stated foreign policy goal to undermine the EU and centrist European governments that don't ideologically align with MAGA.
Reposted by Frederik A. H. Pedersen
'Freuding had once been able to text American defense officials “day and night,” he said, but lately communication with his counterparts in Washington had been “cut off, really cut off.”' www.theatlantic.com/magazine/202...
The New German War Machine
After World War II, Germany embraced pacifism as a form of atonement. Now the country is arming itself again.
www.theatlantic.com
December 2, 2025 at 7:20 PM
'Freuding had once been able to text American defense officials “day and night,” he said, but lately communication with his counterparts in Washington had been “cut off, really cut off.”' www.theatlantic.com/magazine/202...
Reposted by Frederik A. H. Pedersen
When I ask them: "What are you reading? What are you watching? What are you listening to?" Often, the answer is: nothing. Which has a direct effect on their over-use of prompts and AI, because they can't think of ideas, because they are literally not engaging with a single figurative thing.
November 28, 2025 at 10:33 PM
When I ask them: "What are you reading? What are you watching? What are you listening to?" Often, the answer is: nothing. Which has a direct effect on their over-use of prompts and AI, because they can't think of ideas, because they are literally not engaging with a single figurative thing.
Reposted by Frederik A. H. Pedersen
Time to ask: In whose interests is American foreign policy being conducted?
"By dangling multibillion-dollar rare-earth and energy deals, Moscow could reshape the economic map of Europe—while driving a wedge between America and its traditional allies"
Read this excellent @wsj.com account of the business deals behind the "peace"negotiations
www.wsj.com/world/russia...
Read this excellent @wsj.com account of the business deals behind the "peace"negotiations
www.wsj.com/world/russia...
Make Money Not War: Trump’s Real Plan for Peace in Ukraine
The Kremlin pitched the White House on peace through business. To Europe’s dismay, the president and his envoy are on board.
www.wsj.com
November 29, 2025 at 1:49 PM
Time to ask: In whose interests is American foreign policy being conducted?
Reposted by Frederik A. H. Pedersen
“A European intelligence agency distributed a hard-copy report in a manila envelope to some of the continent’s most senior national security officials...inside were details of the commercial and economic plans the US had been pursuing with Russia, including jointly mining rare earths in the Arctic.”
November 29, 2025 at 6:01 AM
“A European intelligence agency distributed a hard-copy report in a manila envelope to some of the continent’s most senior national security officials...inside were details of the commercial and economic plans the US had been pursuing with Russia, including jointly mining rare earths in the Arctic.”
Reposted by Frederik A. H. Pedersen
Senator Menendez is sitting in his cell at Allenwood right now because he took a 1kg gold bar from the Egyptians, among other forms of “lobbying.”
"It was tough to beat Apple, but the Swiss did it." said one administration official.
How the Swiss convinced Trump to drop tariffs with gifts of a Rolex desk clock and a 1 kg gold bar.
www.axios.com/2025/11/14/t...
How the Swiss convinced Trump to drop tariffs with gifts of a Rolex desk clock and a 1 kg gold bar.
www.axios.com/2025/11/14/t...
How to lobby Trump with Swiss precision: gifts, gold and gab
How the Swiss broke a diplomatic logjam on tariffs by arriving with tributes fit for a king.
www.axios.com
November 15, 2025 at 4:31 PM
Senator Menendez is sitting in his cell at Allenwood right now because he took a 1kg gold bar from the Egyptians, among other forms of “lobbying.”
How much do offensive cyber ops really matter for conventional warfare?
Using data from Ukraine, we found that it's tough for cyber ops to significantly impact warfighting — as we published last year.
A year on, little has changed.
doi.org/10.1093/cybs...
Using data from Ukraine, we found that it's tough for cyber ops to significantly impact warfighting — as we published last year.
A year on, little has changed.
doi.org/10.1093/cybs...
Narrow windows of opportunity: the limited utility of cyber operations in war
Abstract. The use of offensive cyber operations in war is no longer theoretical conjecture. Still, as we witness their use, important questions remain. How
doi.org
September 23, 2025 at 5:04 PM
How much do offensive cyber ops really matter for conventional warfare?
Using data from Ukraine, we found that it's tough for cyber ops to significantly impact warfighting — as we published last year.
A year on, little has changed.
doi.org/10.1093/cybs...
Using data from Ukraine, we found that it's tough for cyber ops to significantly impact warfighting — as we published last year.
A year on, little has changed.
doi.org/10.1093/cybs...
Reposted by Frederik A. H. Pedersen
Sometimes I think the real "peace dividend" since the end of the cold war was that a whole generation of analysts grew up underestimating the power of ideology, memory and emotion, and now they cannot recognize a huge cultural shift when it is staring them in the face.
The "soft stuff"matters.
The "soft stuff"matters.
September 11, 2025 at 4:00 PM
Sometimes I think the real "peace dividend" since the end of the cold war was that a whole generation of analysts grew up underestimating the power of ideology, memory and emotion, and now they cannot recognize a huge cultural shift when it is staring them in the face.
The "soft stuff"matters.
The "soft stuff"matters.
Reposted by Frederik A. H. Pedersen
Reposted by Frederik A. H. Pedersen
This has got to be the best description of what algorithm-driven #socialmedia is. Arguing social media is information is like saying Doritos are food. Technically true, but ultra-processed, designed for addiction, and too much of it is bad for you (and society). www.youtube.com/shorts/qKwxg...
Jon Stewart: Social media is “free speech” in the same way that Doritos are "food"
YouTube video by The Daily Show
www.youtube.com
July 18, 2025 at 5:51 AM
This has got to be the best description of what algorithm-driven #socialmedia is. Arguing social media is information is like saying Doritos are food. Technically true, but ultra-processed, designed for addiction, and too much of it is bad for you (and society). www.youtube.com/shorts/qKwxg...
Reposted by Frederik A. H. Pedersen
Latvians recently interviewed Major General Jette Albinus, cmdr of Multinational Division North stationed here.
Highlight of the interview: "I've been asked if NATO's gonna be able to invoke Article 5. I don't care. If Latvia is attacked, I'll send all my forces, they can court-martial me later."
Highlight of the interview: "I've been asked if NATO's gonna be able to invoke Article 5. I don't care. If Latvia is attacked, I'll send all my forces, they can court-martial me later."
July 16, 2025 at 3:34 PM
Latvians recently interviewed Major General Jette Albinus, cmdr of Multinational Division North stationed here.
Highlight of the interview: "I've been asked if NATO's gonna be able to invoke Article 5. I don't care. If Latvia is attacked, I'll send all my forces, they can court-martial me later."
Highlight of the interview: "I've been asked if NATO's gonna be able to invoke Article 5. I don't care. If Latvia is attacked, I'll send all my forces, they can court-martial me later."
Reposted by Frederik A. H. Pedersen
In case you're wondering why philosophy is useful . . .
Phenomenal news story this and I love how the Mail seems quite supportive of it.
Violence plummets in men's prison after inmates were taught philosophy
Inmates at HMP Wayland, Norfolk, were taught how to live virtuous, peaceful lives based on resilience, rational thinking and self-discipline.
www.dailymail.co.uk
July 6, 2025 at 12:36 PM
In case you're wondering why philosophy is useful . . .
Reposted by Frederik A. H. Pedersen
A problem with geopolitical analysis produced in the US is it often assumes other states will succumb to similar structural constraints on political will and doctrine that affect America's way of war.
That goes as much for analysis of Ukraine and Israel as Iran or Russia
That goes as much for analysis of Ukraine and Israel as Iran or Russia
June 14, 2025 at 12:35 PM
A problem with geopolitical analysis produced in the US is it often assumes other states will succumb to similar structural constraints on political will and doctrine that affect America's way of war.
That goes as much for analysis of Ukraine and Israel as Iran or Russia
That goes as much for analysis of Ukraine and Israel as Iran or Russia
Reposted by Frederik A. H. Pedersen
In meinem neuesten Papier vergleiche ich den #Cyber-Konflikt zwischen #Russland und der #Ukraine mit dem Krieg in #Gaza. Es wurden über 350 Cyber-Operationen ausgewertet, um theoretische Annahmen über #Cyberwar empirisch zu überprüfen:
June 2, 2025 at 8:20 AM
In meinem neuesten Papier vergleiche ich den #Cyber-Konflikt zwischen #Russland und der #Ukraine mit dem Krieg in #Gaza. Es wurden über 350 Cyber-Operationen ausgewertet, um theoretische Annahmen über #Cyberwar empirisch zu überprüfen:
Reposted by Frederik A. H. Pedersen
Nationalizing SpaceX would be the American version of Elon falling out of a window.
June 7, 2025 at 8:19 PM
Nationalizing SpaceX would be the American version of Elon falling out of a window.
Reposted by Frederik A. H. Pedersen
Since 2022, people like Palmer Luckey and other American makers of extremely expensive, proprietary-technology drones have been making BIG public shows of donating their drone tech to Ukraine, where it's then pretty much never actually *used* in favor of cheap, open source drone platforms
with the words of the wonderful and gracious @atherton.bsky.social
June 4, 2025 at 5:37 PM
Since 2022, people like Palmer Luckey and other American makers of extremely expensive, proprietary-technology drones have been making BIG public shows of donating their drone tech to Ukraine, where it's then pretty much never actually *used* in favor of cheap, open source drone platforms
Reposted by Frederik A. H. Pedersen
It's possible this is the perspective in some capitals, but where I am, the commitment to higher defense spending is not about pleasing Trump. It's a realization that Europe needs rapid rearmament to replace the US in European security.
The great irony is Euros are agreeing to these spending targets to appease Trump and keep America in. But by agreeing in principle to radically increase def spending (even though it’s all fake) it allows the US to walk away.
Completely bonkers. “The UK is expected to back Nato’s push for all members to spend at least 3.5 per cent of GDP on defence by 2035, despite Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s hesitation over when the UK will get to 3 per cent.” www.ft.com/content/d44e...
June 3, 2025 at 6:14 PM
It's possible this is the perspective in some capitals, but where I am, the commitment to higher defense spending is not about pleasing Trump. It's a realization that Europe needs rapid rearmament to replace the US in European security.
Reposted by Frederik A. H. Pedersen
Counterpoint: US politicians and analysts will be shocked and disoriented when it turns out that the Europeans don't need America as much as Americans think.
It will culminate with complaints about how European militarisation supposedly threatens America.
It will culminate with complaints about how European militarisation supposedly threatens America.
June 3, 2025 at 6:05 PM
Counterpoint: US politicians and analysts will be shocked and disoriented when it turns out that the Europeans don't need America as much as Americans think.
It will culminate with complaints about how European militarisation supposedly threatens America.
It will culminate with complaints about how European militarisation supposedly threatens America.
Reposted by Frederik A. H. Pedersen
I don’t find this convincing anymore because I don’t think that this US administration does in any way take Europe’s actions into consideration. They walk away if they feel like it, independently of Europe’s ability.
The great irony is Euros are agreeing to these spending targets to appease Trump and keep America in. But by agreeing in principle to radically increase def spending (even though it’s all fake) it allows the US to walk away.
Completely bonkers. “The UK is expected to back Nato’s push for all members to spend at least 3.5 per cent of GDP on defence by 2035, despite Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s hesitation over when the UK will get to 3 per cent.” www.ft.com/content/d44e...
June 3, 2025 at 6:30 PM
I don’t find this convincing anymore because I don’t think that this US administration does in any way take Europe’s actions into consideration. They walk away if they feel like it, independently of Europe’s ability.
Reposted by Frederik A. H. Pedersen
Europe should be willing to support a balanced peace deal that offsets Ukr territorial losses with Ukr’s ongoing independence, autonomy & security. If Ru can’t accept that, Europe should fund & enable a Ukrainian war effort in perpetuity. That’s not fuelling war; it’s averting a catastrophe.
June 2, 2025 at 4:13 PM
Europe should be willing to support a balanced peace deal that offsets Ukr territorial losses with Ukr’s ongoing independence, autonomy & security. If Ru can’t accept that, Europe should fund & enable a Ukrainian war effort in perpetuity. That’s not fuelling war; it’s averting a catastrophe.
Reposted by Frederik A. H. Pedersen
Your key takeaway from the brilliant Ukraine attack with small drones into Russia shouldn’t be “wow, small drones make it so easy to score huge hits,” it should be “wow, Ukrainians are insanely good at covertly planning and executing extraordinarily difficult missions of which drones are one part”.
1. The FPV drone tech Ukraine used here has been around for a while, though it was used very ingeniously.
2. The Ukrainian attack using these drones relied upon what sounds like over a year of extraordinarily precise logistics, planning, and training. This is not something just anyone could do.
2. The Ukrainian attack using these drones relied upon what sounds like over a year of extraordinarily precise logistics, planning, and training. This is not something just anyone could do.
i need a smart person who isn't a pod caster to explain the long term implications of FPV drones that cost a couple hundred dollars being used to torch three hundred million dollar bombers. again please no pod casters are invited to comment
June 1, 2025 at 6:19 PM
Your key takeaway from the brilliant Ukraine attack with small drones into Russia shouldn’t be “wow, small drones make it so easy to score huge hits,” it should be “wow, Ukrainians are insanely good at covertly planning and executing extraordinarily difficult missions of which drones are one part”.
Reposted by Frederik A. H. Pedersen
In Europe we can only dream of having a leader this bold and clear eyed.
"The 80-year period [of American leadership] is over. While this is a tragedy, it is also a reality. We must respond with both purpose and force. We are masters in our own home."
"The 80-year period [of American leadership] is over. While this is a tragedy, it is also a reality. We must respond with both purpose and force. We are masters in our own home."
Mark Carney Just Declared Canada's Independence from U.S. Militarism In huge Announcement
deanblundell.substack.com/p/breaking-m...
deanblundell.substack.com/p/breaking-m...
BREAKING: Mark Carney Just Declared Canada's Independence from U.S. Militarism In HUGE Announcement
Canada ditches Trump's chaos for Europe’s $1.25T defence pact and a made-in-Canada military revival.
deanblundell.substack.com
May 30, 2025 at 8:04 AM
In Europe we can only dream of having a leader this bold and clear eyed.
"The 80-year period [of American leadership] is over. While this is a tragedy, it is also a reality. We must respond with both purpose and force. We are masters in our own home."
"The 80-year period [of American leadership] is over. While this is a tragedy, it is also a reality. We must respond with both purpose and force. We are masters in our own home."