Frederik A. H. Pedersen
Frederik A. H. Pedersen
@fahpedersen.bsky.social
Army Officer. Previously @ Princeton. Latest publication: "Narrow windows of opportunity: the limited utility of cyber operations in war" (https://doi.org/10.1093/cybsec/tyae014)
Reposted by Frederik A. H. Pedersen
When I ask them: "What are you reading? What are you watching? What are you listening to?" Often, the answer is: nothing. Which has a direct effect on their over-use of prompts and AI, because they can't think of ideas, because they are literally not engaging with a single figurative thing.
November 28, 2025 at 10:33 PM
Reposted by Frederik A. H. Pedersen
“A European intelligence agency distributed a hard-copy report in a manila envelope to some of the continent’s most senior national security officials...inside were details of the commercial and economic plans the US had been pursuing with Russia, including jointly mining rare earths in the Arctic.”
November 29, 2025 at 6:01 AM
Dive into both the limitations and narrow windows of opportunity for cyber ops during war in our still-relevant article in the Journal of Cybersecurity:

doi.org/10.1093/cybs...
Narrow windows of opportunity: the limited utility of cyber operations in war
Abstract. The use of offensive cyber operations in war is no longer theoretical conjecture. Still, as we witness their use, important questions remain. How
doi.org
September 23, 2025 at 5:29 PM
Those are valuable lessons identified for Western militaries in cyberspace!

Recently, @percepticon.bsky.social found similar limitations based on data from Ukraine and Gaza, using and expanding on our TECI-model for analysis of cyber ops.

It's worth a read: link.springer.com/article/10.1....
September 23, 2025 at 5:04 PM
Still, cyber operations offer:

1) strategic utility through a persistent barrage against critical infrastructure, and

2) operational and tactical utility in a war's beginning when it's easier to integrate cyber and non-cyber operations.
September 23, 2025 at 5:04 PM
The limited utility of cyber ops partly stems from:

1) difficulties integrating cyber ops into conventional operations due to differences in operational tempi.

2) high costs and one-shot nature of sophisticated payloads that are more likely to cause impactful effects
September 23, 2025 at 5:04 PM
Reposted by Frederik A. H. Pedersen
Latvians recently interviewed Major General Jette Albinus, cmdr of Multinational Division North stationed here.

Highlight of the interview: "I've been asked if NATO's gonna be able to invoke Article 5. I don't care. If Latvia is attacked, I'll send all my forces, they can court-martial me later."
July 16, 2025 at 3:34 PM
Reposted by Frederik A. H. Pedersen
Nationalizing SpaceX would be the American version of Elon falling out of a window.
June 7, 2025 at 8:19 PM
Reposted by Frederik A. H. Pedersen
Counterpoint: US politicians and analysts will be shocked and disoriented when it turns out that the Europeans don't need America as much as Americans think.

It will culminate with complaints about how European militarisation supposedly threatens America.
June 3, 2025 at 6:05 PM